Rumor: Sheltered ice time myth

[Monctonscout]

Can we put this to bed, I find it very annoying...

The group of "Desharnais bashers" as most on here call them, seem to be living on some parallel universe where his line gets "sheltered minutes" despite playing on the top offensive line an with the top scoring winger.

How can you get sheltered minutes when the opposing team(as much as they can) tries to put out their best checkers or shutdown defense to try and shut you down as a line? That's an oxymoron if I ever heard one. the funny part is that his numbers are better on the road...33 points in 41 games vs 19 points in 38 games at home...where an opposing coach can much better controls who is out against 51-67 most shifts given they play 17-20 minutes a night.

If you want to shelter a player(like Galchenyuk-Eller-Prust/Gallagher the lock out year), you send them out almost exclusively against 3rd or 4th line/3rd pair matchups and often in the offensive zone. This limits their ice time to 10-12 minutes a game as you can only insulate a player on limited ice time given how much top players and top pairs play in the NHL. Briere got a lot of those types of minutes last year.


...and the shame of it, Therrien sending out his best scorer on offensive zone draws...what horrible coaching! I'm sure Cooper only sends out Stamkos on defensive zone draws an saves the offensive ones for Nate Thompson.

On the Habs the most Non-sheltered minute are Desharnais' line, targeted by other teams to shut them down, and Plekanec playing against top lines and also being expected to produce on offense.

Click to read more...

 

[Jigger77]

Thank you, everytime I read that I cringe. Such a bunch of BS. BTW, DD and Eller both averaged 21 shifts per game last year.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I have been asking for days if anyone here knows a site that tracks most common opposition..

 

[MXD]

I have been asking for days if anyone here knows a site that tracks most common opposition..

What I wonder is what comprises QualComm.

From my comprehension, playing against DD means facing better opposition than facing Plekanec or Eller, Qualcomm-wise.

And that's where things start to get funny. And fuzzy. Because DD's line would have gotten easier minutes playing against TP line than against their own line.

Of course, the above explanation is a bit of horse manure, due to TP's line not being very stable.

 

[MXD]

From what I remember, DD was a lot against Filipulla's line against TB, then Bergeron line against Boston.

 

[LyricalLyricist]

The 'sheltering' logic is often exaggerated. There's no doubt in my mind DD and Max are 'sheltered'. Why would you put offensive players in a defensive situation? Max's goal totals speak to that. The exaggerated part is assuming all they have is sheltered minutes. 'Favourable minutes' would be a better term. Teams want to go check them, you can't avoid it, you can only reduce the impact. Of course, generally speaking not all players play the same vs every team. Some players do well vs physical teams, some do well vs speed teams. Using an overall assessment could be fair, but it may always be off. Some of the most talented players in the world have their Achilles heel! So even quality of competition, even when sometimes referring to a known star talent, can be flawed under certain circumstances. Just my 2 cents.

 

[JAVO16]

I have been asking for days if anyone here knows a site that tracks most common opposition..

By opposing team or simply around the league ?

Edit: http://hockey.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_linematchup.php

 

[MXD]

Also... DD was our best producer on the road, and was something like the 5th producer at home.

Now if coaches prefer to send out weaker players against DD line when they have the last change, that's their problem.

Theory above a bit "skewed" by the fact that PAC was our best player at home.

 

[Rosso Scuderia]

Well, if they are not being sheltered and plays against the opponents best units then it would make them the first line.

DD still suck as a first liner.

 

[Monctonscout]

What I wonder is what comprises QualComm.

From my comprehension, playing against DD means facing better opposition than facing Plekanec or Eller, Qualcomm-wise.

And that's where things start to get funny. And fuzzy. Because DD's line would have gotten easier minutes playing against TP line than against their own line.

Of course, the above explanation is a bit of horse manure, due to TP's line not being very stable.

It's a bit flawed if it only considers the offensive output on the other side.

Facing Bergeron and Filippula make it harder to score than Stamos and Krejci for example. Both are hard matchups but in different ways. Or Chara instead of Krug...Krug has the same numbers but is a much easier opponent to score against.

 

[MathMan]

Opposition isn't the only thing that affects "sheltering".

Zone starts is also a large factor, quite possibly a larger one. David Desharnais took 52.9% of his non-neutral zone faceoffs in the offensive zone, which may not seem like much but is the highest number on the Habs. Compare to Eller (43.7%) or even Plekanec (38.0%) and it becomes clear the other centers were placed in defensive situations more often to free up offensive starts for Desharnais.

That's not bad strategizing, as the centers certainly have different strengths, but it has to be considered when evaluating the relative performances of the Habs' centers. It's likely Malhotra will take a lot of those defensive faceoffs and Plekanec will likely be the biggest beneficiary.

Also when considering overall scoring numbers, don't forget to separate out special teams scoring. DD getting first-unit PP minutes and 50 seconds more than, say, Plekanec, helps, whereas Plekanec's PK minutes are hardly prime offensive opportunities.

 

[hototogisu]

I have been asking for days if anyone here knows a site that tracks most common opposition..

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_time...3_s&f2=5v5&f5=MTL&c=0+1+3+5+8+29+31+33+35+37#

If I am not reading this completely incorrectly, Desharnais' most frequent opposition last year was Dion Phaneuf, Carl Gunnarsson, Zdeno Chara, Phil Kessel and James van Reimsdyk.

 

[MXD]

Well, if they are not being sheltered and plays against the opponents best units then it would make them the first line.

DD still suck as a first liner.

By facing Bergeron, DD faces the best center on the Bruins.
Again, that's where things get fuzzy.

 

[Monctonscout]

Well, if they are not being sheltered and plays against the opponents best units then it would make them the first line.

DD still suck as a first liner.

I wouldn't say he sucks as a 1st liner...his production last year was 72nd in the league among forwards. So low end 1st line production, high end 2nd line.

Ideally somebody (Galchenyuk) would grow into a top 20-30 forward in the next few years but he isn't there now.

 

[MXD]

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_time...3_s&f2=5v5&f5=MTL&c=0+1+3+5+8+29+31+33+35+37#

If I am not reading this completely incorrectly, Desharnais' most frequent opposition last year was Carl Gunnarsson, Dion Phaneuf, Zdeno Chara, Phil Kessel and James van Reimsdyk.

And Carlyle typically played Phaneuf \ Gunnarssom against the strongest competition (and were mostly overmatched)

 

[WeThreeKings]

I wouldn't say he sucks as a 1st liner...his production last year was 72nd in the league among forwards. So low end 1st line production, high end 2nd line.

Ideally somebody (Galchenyuk) would grow into a top 20-30 forward in the next few years but he isn't there now.

Which is why I hope they legitimately give him a long audition this year. Let's see where he is at and go from there.

I still want to see them do more than just evaluate then throw him back on the wing. He eventually has to get his reps in.

There is no reason to not give him center starts at home where you have more control over who gets put out there against.

 

[MXD]

Opposition isn't the only thing that affects "sheltering".

Zone starts is also a large factor, quite possibly a larger one. David Desharnais took 52.9% of his non-neutral zone faceoffs in the offensive zone, which may not seem like much but is the highest number on the Habs. Compare to Eller (43.7%) or even Plekanec (38.0%) and it becomes clear the other centers were placed in defensive situations more often to free up offensive starts for Desharnais.

That's not bad strategizing, as the centers certainly have different strengths, but it has to be considered when evaluating the relative performances of the Habs' centers. It's likely Malhotra will take a lot of those defensive faceoffs and Plekanec will likely be the biggest beneficiary.

Also when considering overall scoring numbers, don't forget to separate out special teams scoring. DD getting first-unit PP minutes and 50 seconds more than, say, Plekanec, helps, whereas Plekanec's PK minutes are hardly prime offensive opportunities.

If you are Claude Julien, and have a D-zone start.

Do you send Chara or Krug ?

 

[WeThreeKings]

We should have a thread where we amass links to advanced statistic sites. I think it would be beneficial. For someone like myself who relies on remembering things and then voicing an opinion it would be great to review the context before posting.

Memory is reconstructive so its easy for anyone to remember things wrong or exaggerate issues. As a person who wants to make credible posts, I'd love to review what I see vs. What the stats say.

Appears to me just from viewing on my phone that Desharnais line regularly faced the other teams scoring line with their top or second pairing D. Which is hard to quantify since on one hand, top scoring lines aren't always strong defensuvely but top d pairings are..

Then you have to consider to opposing coaches put that D out to counter the oppositions scoring line or as a defensive buffer for a line like kessels?

 

[Rosso Scuderia]

I wouldn't say he sucks as a 1st liner...his production last year was 72nd in the league among forwards. So low end 1st line production, high end 2nd line.

Ideally somebody (Galchenyuk) would grow into a top 20-30 forward in the next few years but he isn't there now.

Well I mean, he's not good enough as a first center for a contender team. Not saying it's his fault but he plays in a role too big for him.

I still think he's the odd man out because I see Galchenyuk as our future 1st center with Eller and Plekanec completing the center line in the top 9.

We need Eller size, two-way games and physical presence. I think he's gonna be a good 2nd center for us.

As for Plek, his leadership, two way game is necessary and 3rd line duties would be perfect for him.

 

[MathMan]

If you are Claude Julien, and have a D-zone start.

Do you send Chara or Krug ?

Most of the time the answer will be "Chara", but it sometimes depends on the score condition, who the opponent is sending on the ice and, especially, whether Chara's tired.

It's not Chara-every-time but given a choice, strong preference to Chara.

(And indeed, Real Claude Julien gave Chara 48.1% o-zone starts, lowest of regular Bruins D, whereas Krug has a whopping 66.2%, highest among Bruins regulars.)

 

[hototogisu]

If you are Claude Julien, and have a D-zone start.

Do you send Chara or Krug ?

I don't think anyone's saying that playing players to their strengths is a bad strategy.

I think the question is more, "is Desharnais' offensive prowess worth what he gives up in another areas of the ice?" (e.g. physicality, defensive play, etc). Not to mention the trickle-down effect his presence may have on the production of the other centers. Because logically, if you're giving Desharnais the lion's share of the offensive starts, it means you're not giving some of those starts to other centres whose point production, development, etc. may suffer as a result of that.

 

[Mathletic]

We should have a thread where we amass links to advanced statistic sites. I think it would be beneficial. For someone like myself who relies on remembering things and then voicing an opinion it would be great to review the context before posting.

Memory is reconstructive so its easy for anyone to remember things wrong or exaggerate issues. As a person who wants to make credible posts, I'd love to review what I see vs. What the stats say.

Appears to me just from viewing on my phone that Desharnais line regularly faced the other teams scoring line with their top or second pairing D. Which is hard to quantify since on one hand, top scoring lines aren't always strong defensuvely but top d pairings are..

Then you have to consider to opposing coaches put that D out to counter the oppositions scoring line or as a defensive buffer for a line like kessels?

There's always the "By the Numbers" board. There's a thread that points out to various links.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1585305

 

[WeThreeKings]

There's always the "By the Numbers" board. There's a thread that points out to various links.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1585305

Thanks a million

 

[Andy]

I don't think anyone's saying that playing players to their strengths is a bad strategy.

I think the question is more, "is Desharnais' offensive prowess worth what he gives up in another areas of the ice?" (e.g. physicality, defensive play, etc). Not to mention the trickle-down effect his presence may have on the production of the other centers. Because logically, if you're giving Desharnais the lion's share of the offensive starts, it means you're not giving some of those starts to other centres whose point production may suffer as a result of that.

This and MathMan's post in a nutshell. It's all about opportunity costs. Is it worth it to slide all those offensive opportunities to one centre so that he can put up 50-60 points? Is loading up one line with those opportunities the most efficient way to exploit the team's offensive capabilities?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but 2012-2013 saw a more balances approach with regards to offensive distribution and the team was firing on all cylinders for a good part of the shorten season. Every line was producing. Last year saw a preponderance of those opportunities go to one trio and everyone regressed except patches and DD.

I think the team would be better suited to balancing the offense, especially on the PP. The team was in the bottom 3rd, yet refused to try different options. Same in the playoffs, DD's line was clearly ineffective, but we stubbornly leaned on it.

 

[GoodKiwi]

Don't you get it?

It's the opposing coaches to shelter Deshrnais' minutes by icing plugs against his line. Only so that Montreal fanbase has a bigger axe to grind with DD.