FatTugboatFlahr
Registered User
Oh you meant being a dominant possession player.
this is so true .
Oh you meant being a dominant possession player.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm... wonder where ever you could be going with this.
But before this ends up becoming another one of those threads, I'll clarify I meant moving the puck, being in the offensive zone, and getting chances, not simply converting/scoring.
Watching Pens games with the CBC broadcast team, they actually mention this a lot. They said that Sullivan has told the Dmen to move the puck out of the zone as quickly as possible. And we are following that model of having ALL our Dmen be fast, and good passers.
I wish we had 1-2 speed demons up front.
the difference is though, we have spent prime picks to draft those type of players, whereas the pens have shown that you don't need to invest tons to get that type of player.
Daley, schultz, dumolin, ian cole, hainsey, were all aquired for nothing. What they are doing has never really been done before. Its damn impressive. This will be the worst defense to have ever win a stanley cup and its its closest competitor would be last years penguins team. And when i say worst i mean worst on paper, because for some reason they are greater than the sum of their parts right now.
That some reason is #87 and #71 and they had to bottom out to get those guys (and get lucky). The Pens shouldn't be used as a model of how to build a championship defense. They have two of the most dominant centers to ever play the game. It makes up for a lot.
Their defense has sucked all playoffs, can barely move the puck, and it's truly a miracle they've gotten this far without Letang. They've been getting caved in possession and are so ridiculously lucky. Last postseason, yes, they did it and were the poster child. This year they play entire games in their own end and magically find a way to score still. Sullivan has done the best he can with that ragtag group and has shown the way he WANTS to play, but they are winning with anti-possession hockey and one of the worst defenses in the league. That's not a template.
Hockey is a game where goals matter more than anything else. And it pains me when gm's don't understand that. I could have radulov score on one shot from an impossible angle, and give up 10 breakaways that are saved and i win. or i could have 30 chest snipes from james neal and give up 1 breakaway goal and lose. thats how the game works and thats how it will always work.
This ties into corsi a bit. We all know that corsi is a great after the fact stat to tell us which teams have a strong possession game. )Im not a fan of using it to apply to individuals). But here is the thing, we are in the middle of a hockey advanced stats revolution, and the amount of shots per game in the nhl has not changed much. In fact its gone down a bit. So even with this thinking it is hard to apply. Meaning it is hard to get shots on net, and even more so it is hard to get goals. At the end of the day goals need to be what is valued not shots.
Stopping goals matter too.
There's a lot to unpack here. I'm going to try avoid the specific and keep it general. It's also worth noting that I'm not separating the discussion of teams and individuals even though I really should.
The question is not goal metrics vs shot metrics. Given enough of a sample size, the goal metrics will be more accurate. The trick is when you cross into that area, which is a minefield at best. It turns out that we can probably be more accurate predicting within a season by foregoing both Score-Adjusted Corsi and GF%, turning instead to something akin to Dawson Sprigings' xGF model.
https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/10/0...predictor-of-future-scoring-than-corsi-goals/
His model factors in elements such as shot types/angles/distances, rebounds, on/off wings, shooter talent, etc.
To me, the next big leap will come when we have a solid answer as to how to measure quality of competition and teammates. Hell, one of the current theories is to look at opponents' ice time to determine QoC.
Finally, a small note. I know we say Corsi means possession as shorthand, but it's an important distinction to say we're using it as a proxy for it. Hopefully when we get the NHL equivalent of SportVU or FIELDf/x it opens up avenues we simply don't have available right now.
Isn't that what Hockey Reference uses, or something like that, to determine Expected +/-?
yea bill posted about that Gostisbehere reflects on tragedy at his Florida high schoolDon’t know if this has been posted anywhere but Ghost attended the high school in Florida where yesterday’s shooting occurred. His grandparents live a mile from the school.
I didn't know he attended the school until today, but I did as well and Ghost and I may have been school mates as we're only two years apart. Such a shame what happened there...
I don’t feel like quoting him in case he comes back, but this was on page 4:
“Not saying much but Rob Ellis is one of the best in the Philly sports media.”
He seems to stick to the trade forumI don’t feel like quoting him in case he comes back, but this was on page 4:
“Not saying much but Rob Ellis is one of the best in the Philly sports media.”