Confirmed with Link: Shayne Gostisbehere Signs Multi-Year Extension (Six Years $4.5M Per)
- Thread starter Hollywood Cannon
- Start date
Striiker
Earthquake Survivor
Tripod
I hate this team
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm... wonder where ever you could be going with this.
But before this ends up becoming another one of those threads, I'll clarify I meant moving the puck, being in the offensive zone, and getting chances, not simply converting/scoring.
Watching Pens games with the CBC broadcast team, they actually mention this a lot. They said that Sullivan has told the Dmen to move the puck out of the zone as quickly as possible. And we are following that model of having ALL our Dmen be fast, and good passers.
I wish we had 1-2 speed demons up front.
Jtown
Registered User
the difference is though, we have spent prime picks to draft those type of players, whereas the pens have shown that you don't need to invest tons to get that type of player.
Daley, schultz, dumolin, ian cole, hainsey, were all aquired for nothing. What they are doing has never really been done before. Its damn impressive. This will be the worst defense to have ever win a stanley cup and its its closest competitor would be last years penguins team. And when i say worst i mean worst on paper, because for some reason they are greater than the sum of their parts right now.
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
- 53,082
- 86,408
That some reason is #87 and #71 and they had to bottom out to get those guys (and get lucky). The Pens shouldn't be used as a model of how to build a championship defense. They have two of the most dominant centers to ever play the game. It makes up for a lot.
Tripod
I hate this team
I agree, but they also have 3 top 5 picks at forward and we have none.
Also, a good coach does just that....the "greater than the sum of the parts". And Sullivan is a very good coach.
Magua
Entirely Palatable Product
Their defense has sucked all playoffs, can barely move the puck, and it's truly a miracle they've gotten this far without Letang. They've been getting caved in possession and are so ridiculously lucky. Last postseason, yes, they did it and were the poster child. This year they play entire games in their own end and magically find a way to score still. Sullivan has done the best he can with that ragtag group and has shown the way he WANTS to play, but they are winning with anti-possession hockey and one of the worst defenses in the league. That's not a template.
Jtown
Registered User
exactly. Lets be clear here they have two of the most dominate centers to have ever played, and when they had kessel on his own line last year he was their best forward.
3 special type of forwards have contributed to there success.
Why you don't want to model your team after the pens, because it would be impossible. You do know that in order to win you need elite offensive players. It really is that simple. YOU can lose without elite offensive players , but you can't win without them.
I will always choose offense over d. Having a guy like ghost will always give us more pluses than minuses as long as he is used correctly.
Jtown
Registered User
Hockey is a game where goals matter more than anything else. And it pains me when gm's don't understand that. I could have radulov score on one shot from an impossible angle, and give up 10 breakaways that are saved and i win. or i could have 30 chest snipes from james neal and give up 1 breakaway goal and lose. thats how the game works and thats how it will always work.
This ties into corsi a bit. We all know that corsi is a great after the fact stat to tell us which teams have a strong possession game. )Im not a fan of using it to apply to individuals). But here is the thing, we are in the middle of a hockey advanced stats revolution, and the amount of shots per game in the nhl has not changed much. In fact its gone down a bit. So even with this thinking it is hard to apply. Meaning it is hard to get shots on net, and even more so it is hard to get goals. At the end of the day goals need to be what is valued not shots.
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
- 53,082
- 86,408
Shots were actually up this year. Most since 2010-2011.
Shots are valued because shots lead to goals. You can shoot 23% like TJ Oshie did this year and score 33 goals and get paid, but it's unlikely he comes close to reproducing that number because he has a career shooting% of 13.
Shots are valued because shots lead to goals. You can shoot 23% like TJ Oshie did this year and score 33 goals and get paid, but it's unlikely he comes close to reproducing that number because he has a career shooting% of 13.
JojoTheWhale
CORN BOY
- May 22, 2008
- 33,742
- 105,252
There's a lot to unpack here. I'm going to try avoid the specific and keep it general. It's also worth noting that I'm not separating the discussion of teams and individuals even though I really should.
The question is not goal metrics vs shot metrics. Given enough of a sample size, the goal metrics will be more accurate. The trick is when you cross into that area, which is a minefield at best. It turns out that we can probably be more accurate predicting within a season by foregoing both Score-Adjusted Corsi and GF%, turning instead to something akin to Dawson Sprigings' xGF model.
https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/10/0...predictor-of-future-scoring-than-corsi-goals/
His model factors in elements such as shot types/angles/distances, rebounds, on/off wings, shooter talent, etc.
To me, the next big leap will come when we have a solid answer as to how to measure quality of competition and teammates. Hell, one of the current theories is to look at opponents' ice time to determine QoC.
Finally, a small note. I know we say Corsi means possession as shorthand, but it's an important distinction to say we're using it as a proxy for it. Hopefully when we get the NHL equivalent of SportVU or FIELDf/x it opens up avenues we simply don't have available right now.
Tripod
I hate this team
Striiker
Earthquake Survivor
Goals matter a lot, that's why stopping the opponent from doing something very good for them, is very good for us.
deadhead
Registered User
- Feb 26, 2014
- 49,215
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If keeping it in the offensive zone is the best defense, then forecheckers are worth more than mere "skaters." Since they keep possession in the offensive zone, you should pay for Corsi.
Of course, it's never that simple. You can have offensive players who give up a lot of goals because they keep the puck in the O-zone but make too many bad plays that end up as odd man rushes the other way. You can have defensive players who are good at clearing the puck out of the D-zone, triggering rushes where they never get points. And so on.
That's one reason I look at GF/GA per 60 ES minutes, it's a quick read on a player relative to his teammates, and his role.
Of course, it's never that simple. You can have offensive players who give up a lot of goals because they keep the puck in the O-zone but make too many bad plays that end up as odd man rushes the other way. You can have defensive players who are good at clearing the puck out of the D-zone, triggering rushes where they never get points. And so on.
That's one reason I look at GF/GA per 60 ES minutes, it's a quick read on a player relative to his teammates, and his role.
deadhead
Registered User
- Feb 26, 2014
- 49,215
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Isn't that what Hockey Reference uses, or something like that, to determine Expected +/-?
JojoTheWhale
CORN BOY
- May 22, 2008
- 33,742
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It does include shot locations, but is missing quite a bit of the other factors. Here's Sprigings' piece on Expected +/-, by the way.
https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/10/25/expected-plus-minus/
The rest of that WAR series is definitely worth reading as well if you're so inclined.
deadhead
Registered User
- Feb 26, 2014
- 49,215
- 21,617
I think the E +/- is a little different, based on shots and where on ice they were taken.
http://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2015/10/introducing-nhl-expected/
http://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2015/10/introducing-nhl-expected/
Don’t know if this has been posted anywhere but Ghost attended the high school in Florida where yesterday’s shooting occurred. His grandparents live a mile from the school.
LegionOfDoom91
Registered User
He was only there for two years. He finished his other two years up North at a boarding school called South Kent School in Connecticut for hockey reasons obviously.
1865
Alpha Couturier
But back on more positive notes, what a ridiculous contract.
Magua
Entirely Palatable Product
I don’t feel like quoting him in case he comes back, but this was on page 4:
“Not saying much but Rob Ellis is one of the best in the Philly sports media.”
“Not saying much but Rob Ellis is one of the best in the Philly sports media.”
Captain Dave Poulin
Imaginary Cat
That was one of the more blatant troll jobs you will ever see.
The Rage Kage
Registered User
- Apr 21, 2014
- 6,245
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