Seth Jones or Patrik Laine

[grieves]

Laine had a very rare ratio of powerplay to even strength time too.

Pointing out that Laine could score more with more ice time is fair but I don't like stating it as a fact that he'd have xx amount of goals with y of icetime. He also didn't have to face top competition this year.

I can live with that.

Let's just say that Laine had the best g/60 ratio in the whole league at 19yo.

 

[member 157595]

Good point. I completely missed that. Nice subtle insults too, overall a nice post.

Still, I'm not sure passing up Laine is correct here, no matter your situation. Could be wrong, especially if Jones is REALLY good.

Yeah I changed my post, I agree that the insult was not necessary. That's my fault, I'm having a bad day.

For a team that so badly needs a #1 RHD, I can't justify not taking Jones over Laine. However, Laine does bring a dimension that many other teams are seriously lacking so I understand taking Laine for them.

 

[Brock Radunske]

This is easily Jones but this is setting up Laine for failure because anyone who knows anything about building a team always takes the #1D before the #1W.
That being said, I'd say Laine is a better winger relative to his peers than Jones is as a defenseman relative to his peers but defense is a much, much more important position.

 

[Mrb1p]

Top 5 D > top 5 W

 

[member 157595]

This is easily Jones but this is setting up Laine for failure because anyone who knows anything about building a team always takes the #1D before the #1W.
That being said, I'd say Laine is a better winger relative to his peers than Jones is as a defenseman relative to his peers but defense is a much, much more important position.

Very well said.

There's no doubt Laine is a freak of nature. I expected him to be a star but he's surpassed my expectations. That shot can bring you out of your seat at any time and his all-around game is improving too.

But my team needs a #1D, and a right-handed one at that, more than anything. Have to take Jones.

 

[KingTux]

Depends on your team needs

I think they are about equal value wise, with a slight edge for Jones

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

Laine had a very rare ratio of powerplay to even strength time too.

Pointing out that Laine could score more with more ice time is fair but I don't like stating it as a fact that he'd have xx amount of goals with y of icetime. He also didn't have to face top competition this year.

Laines success on the Power Play will stagnate around what he got with his onetimer.

I agree the notion that there should be no Goal number pinned just because of his lack of minutes(high G/60), but the assumption he could have gotten more goals and contended closer to the rocket is fair.

 

[Machinehead]

The defenseman

 

[I am not exposed]

Seth Jones for the Panthers.

 

[Goose312]

Based on value it's Jones by a mile. No winger is worth a 23 year old fairly high end #1 defender.

 

[Ainec]

jones ainec

 

[6 Karlsson 5]

There are basically two important variables in hockey. How many goals for and how many against.

You can sacrifice some goals against if you get tons of goals for. Defense is not more important than offense, you just need to have the right kind of mix and utilize your players as such.

If Laine would have had the same TOI as Ovi, he would have scored 53 goals and won the Rocket, no contest. With pretty questionable deployment I might add, and while still being physically raw (now he just looks bulky because that's where he is at right now training-wise). He didn't get many assists because the line he was in most of the season simply did not score. Like almost at all. It was only after he got some new linemates when he started potting ES points. PP was under control the whole season and he was the best PP scorer in the league, which makes sense.

Jones or Laine... lol

The two player's goal based metrics are about the same. Values based on "actual" data shows slightly favour Laine, but expected values clealry favour Jones, and expected values are more correlted with wins; therefore, they are probably more important.
P.L GF% 59.38
S.J GF% 56.88

P.L RelGF% 6.67
S.J RelGF% 6.36

P.L xGF% 47.75
S.J xGF% 52.59

P.L RelxGF% -6.86
S.J RelxGF% 1.39

Even if you add last year, it's essentially the same story, but the "actual" numbers favour Laine slighty more.

I'd rather have Jones. I prefer dmen. I'm not overly impressed with Laine when I watch, and his really bad expected stats kinda scare me.

 

[ijuka]

How much younger is Laine, again?

Yeah, don't understand why Jones would be winning.

 

[grieves]

The two player's goal based metrics are about the same. Values based on "actual" data shows slightly favour Laine, but expected values clealry favour Jones, and expected values are more correlted with wins; therefore, they are probably more important.
P.L GF% 59.38
S.J GF% 56.88

P.L RelGF% 6.67
S.J RelGF% 6.36

P.L xGF% 47.75
S.J xGF% 52.59

P.L RelxGF% -6.86
S.J RelxGF% 1.39

Even if you add last year, it's essentially the same story, but the "actual" numbers favour Laine slighty more.

I'd rather have Jones. I prefer damn. I'm not overly impressed with Laine when I watch, and his really bad expected stats kinda scare me.

Expected values showed Laine to be the most lucky player in existence last season. xGoals regarding Laine goes out the window, because his shot style is new to the league. Laine breaks that stat. And when you watch Laine highlights you understand that to be the case.

HOWEVER! Laine also aims his shots as accurately as I have anyone seen do so, so he misses a lot. Like when you factor in how many times Laine shoots, he is not superhuman in regards to anyone else because he misses the iron so closely half the time. But then you realize that no-one else does this and the deception from his release makes goalies weaker, you start to understand the genius behind it.

(BTW, some analyst attributed this masking of the direction of the shot the same thing Mario used to use. Any Mario fans care to confirm?)

 

[suprvilce]

Why are Jets fans defending Laine right from the get go? I mean just because someone would chose Jones for his team that lacks a top defenceman much more than top winger, he gets immediately bombarded for not taking Laine. Both would be big additions to any team in the league, but for some teams one would fill bigger need than the other.

But please, tell us more about this Laine player.

 

[6 Karlsson 5]

Expected values showed Laine to be the most lucky player in existence last season. xGoals regarding Laine goes out the window, because his shot style is new to the league. Laine breaks that stat. And when you watch Laine highlights you understand that to be the case.

HOWEVER! Laine also aims his shots as accurately as I have anyone seen do so, so he misses a lot. Like when you factor in how many times Laine shoots, he is not superhuman in regards to anyone else because he misses the iron so closely half the time. But then you realize that no-one else does this and the deception from his release makes goalies weaker, you start to understand the genius behind it.

(BTW, some analyst attributed this masking of the direction of the shot the same thing Mario used to use. Any Mario fans care to confirm?)

Expected stats don't measure luck, and invidual residuals do not measure luck.

Your second paragraphs is a mess. It's typical word salad from people that use the arguement "x stat doesn't apply to y player".
He aims "his shot as accurately as anyone I've seen" ; therefore "he misses alot". I stopped reading after that.

 

[Vachon23]

I will take the #1 d-man before a #1 winger

 

[rent free]

What a weird poll.

look at whos the op

 

[tapi]

Jones easy. He delivers always, very solid player. Laine can't come up with goals when it matters, which should be his bread and butter, yet he ain't scoring

 

[grieves]

Expected stats don't measure luck, and invidual residuals do not measure luck.

Your second paragraphs is a mess. It's typical word salad from people that use the arguement "x stat doesn't apply to y player".
He aims "his shot as accurately as anyone I've seen" ; therefore "he misses alot". I stopped reading after that.

It's good to be skeptical, but you are not understanding what you are writing.

The whole point of "expected goals" or "xGoals" is to get rid of the luck factor. If you shoot from one spot 5 shots, and 5 go in, your actual shooting percentage is 100%. Should we derive from that set of data that you will always shoot 100% from that spot, or should we calculate what everyone else is shooting from that shot, to calculate your xGoals number?

If we don't think you will shoot 100% from that area, we can look at what everyone else has done in that area, and then determine what is the league average percentage for that shot to go in. Then we have a situation where the actual production is 100%, but the value we should give more weight to is "only 2 shots go in from that area in general for every other player". So the xGoals number for that performance is 2 instead of 5.

And that makes it a better stat, especially when you fine-tune it to the player in question (and the goalie, and the pass that he just received, and how many defenders are screening, and probably what the player ate the last day with today's technology).

And then later, if we figure out that you got to that same spot, but did not score in 10 shots straight, we can determine that you should be worth at least 4 "expected goals", even though you scored none.

And that is what makes analytics useful. It tries to take the luck (or random variation) out of it.

 

[stevo61]

haha oh my those 1st few areguements are golden. Noone gives a damn how long it took a player to develop (especially a defenseman on a stacked defense) all that matters is the player they become. Then using goals scored like its a big deal the forward scores more goals then the defenseman
Jones is a younger better version of Byfuglien. Less of a physical prescence but less brain cramps
Jones is an offensive beast on a team starved for offense and his defensive ability is atleast on par with his offense. Whether its a PP, PK up a goal late or down a goal late Seth Jones is your guy

 

[Skolman]

Maybe he'd rather have the better team rather than the better top line

I'll take a #1 d man, over a 1st line winger

 

[Ducks in a row]

Ducks need forward help so Laine

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Really? stats ain't enough so you want to talk age? meh, I'll pass. I want to talk about value of position. I want to talk about ice time. Who's going to break up plays defensively and then help transition to offense. I want to talk about the position that can help wingers score more by holding the line in the offensive zone, and launch shots that give up juicy rebounds, and provide redirection possibilities for wingers.

Sorry, unless you have something to change my mind, I will always value defensemen over wingers; all things being equal. Centers...maybe.

Comparing positions is valid but if you want to compare 2 players you have to look at them at similar ages. Ignoring age is ridiculous.

Aaand - you say all things being equal. So look at all things. 44 goals in his 19 YO season puts Laine in pretty rare company.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I'll take a #1 d man, over a 1st line winger

Smart choice. So would I