Sergei Bobrovsky - Top Cop

[Madifer]

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I'm not convinced that Bob's best days are behind him. It's really waay too early to come to that conclusion.

There is a considerable chance that his professional peak was those years in Columbus and his Vezina trophies.

Bob being inconsistent and frankly weak during the first 2 months shows just how frail his mind is when there is pressure in the air. Thats too obvious to everyone now. Bob chokes under real and imagined pressure.

Bob would be an excellent goalie for a bottom feeder like Arizona or so.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Leaving aside the discussion over whether to sign Bob long term, Bob didn't **** the bed last Spring. It's unlikely that a run-of-the-mill goalie would improve on his .925 ES sv% vs the Caps. The cap savings won't matter in the playoffs, because no one gets paid then.

Wait . Are you really down to citing his even strength save % to try to make it look like he preformed well last playoffs . He had .90 % save and a 3.14 gaa, last series . He’s 5-14 overall with a .891% and 3.49gaa overall , and let’s keep in mind , not once in those 19g, did he allow less than 3 goals a game . I guess I’ve never seen anyone taking out power play goals , in order to make a goalie look better . On top of that , if management wants him to see a sports psychologist, and you know your coming up on a contract year , and you refused the year prior , you can bet that would create a lot of questions from management , on top of that , he comes to camp looking like a baby , and has played awful the whole season . He’s validated their concerns .

 

[major major]

There is a considerable chance that his professional peak was those years in Columbus and his Vezina trophies.

Bob being inconsistent and frankly weak during the first 2 months shows just how frail his mind is when there is pressure in the air. Thats too obvious to everyone now. Bob chokes under real and imagined pressure.

Bob would be an excellent goalie for a bottom feeder like Arizona or so.

Yes, clearly that early December game against a rival like Calgary was just too much for Bob to bear with his frail mind. It's not simple times for Bob, like when he took us through multiple overtime games last Spring, winning the first two and then stoning the Caps through 30 minutes of OT in game 3. Not much at stake in those games.

 

[Crede777]

The idea that he has playoff issues is pretty silly.

We are talking about someone who trains harder than almost anyone else, works with Olympic trainers every offseason, and has played at a high level for a good while. He isn't mentally fragile or weak.

Also, it isn't as if the game suddenly changes when we go from the regular season to the postseason. Shots still travel just as fast, come from the same spots on the ice, etc.

Rather, the much more likely way to explain his "struggles" in the postseason are to say:
1. It is a result of small sample size. We are talking about 5% of his NHL career games. Bobrovsky does get hot and cold and his streaks can easily last for 2 weeks or more.
2. He is more likely to slump if he is overworked and coming off of 60+ starts.
3. He has faced three of the highest scoring teams in their respective seasons with Pittsburgh 2x and Washington 1x.

 

[Madifer]

The idea that he has playoff issues is pretty silly.

We are talking about someone who trains harder than almost anyone else, works with Olympic trainers every offseason, and has played at a high level for a good while. He isn't mentally fragile or weak.

Also, it isn't as if the game suddenly changes when we go from the regular season to the postseason. Shots still travel just as fast, come from the same spots on the ice, etc.

Rather, the much more likely way to explain his "struggles" in the postseason are to say:
1. It is a result of small sample size. We are talking about 5% of his NHL career games. Bobrovsky does get hot and cold and his streaks can easily last for 2 weeks or more.
2. He is more likely to slump if he is overworked and coming off of 60+ starts.
3. He has faced three of the highest scoring teams in their respective seasons with Pittsburgh 2x and Washington 1x.

Clearly you are not familiar with issues like anxiety and things that can trigger it in some people.

You are also ignorant about psychology in general or you would never link one's work ethics to one having certain issues.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

The idea that he has playoff issues is pretty silly.

Wrong. But your claim that he doesn't is.

The sample size, high scoring opponents, and "he's overworked" angles won't cut it with anyone but his most obsequious apologists. He has been a regular season savant, but a post season flop.

19 games and never a game with less than 3 allowed is not just randomness and "luck". It's a direct result of being a lousy post season goalie to this point in his career.

 

[JacketsDavid]

The idea that he has playoff issues is pretty silly.

So ignore his playoff record and stats?

Listen I like Bob. Wish we could sign him to a reasonable 4-5 year deal. Doesn't seem likely.

He's played some great hockey for us, but no way in the world would I pay him what he wants. Not many teams have 1 workhorse goalie playing 65 games/year and making $10M per. It doesn't allow him to be fresh in playoffs. It doesn't allow us to develop any other goalies and quite frankly it hamstrings us to paying a 2nd goalie a pretty low salary.
Bob plays his best hockey as the 1A goalie. He never seems to play well when sharing time and if he's only playing 50 games/year you can't pay him $10M.
Thanks Bob appreciate everything, hope you get the contract you want elsewhere. But for now play your best to earn that next contract.

I'll role the dice on another path to winning a playoff series (that every other team has managed to climb).

 

[LoveCBJ]

The Blue Jackets' Relationship With Sergei Bobrovsky Has "Deteriorated," According to NHL Network's Kevin Weekes

 

[MoeBartoli]

As someone who has defended Bob in the playoffs and rough seasons... Im ready to move on. I dont see his head or heart here. Last years playoffs being blamed on him even though it certainly shouldnt have been plus not getting what he wants money wise for he past here... plus his rough start. I think he has 1 foot out the door and both sides mutually are ready for a fresh start.

Im ready to give him a standing O and thank you package for everything he has done and I think its best for both sides genuinely.

Like you, I've been a huge Bob fan and defender. IMO he's been the "career MVP" for the Jackets. But I agree it's time to move on and I would make that move sooner than later, realizing the return may not be all that satisfying......When he returns, he'll surely receive a video tribute and I'll stand and cheer for him as loudly as anyone.

 

[Crede777]

Wrong. But your claim that he doesn't is.

The sample size, high scoring opponents, and "he's overworked" angles won't cut it with anyone but his most obsequious apologists. He has been a regular season savant, but a post season flop.

19 games and never a game with less than 3 allowed is not just randomness and "luck". It's a direct result of being a lousy post season goalie to this point in his career.

Simply saying "wrong" does not make it so.

Run a statistical analysis. I guarantee you those games don't represent a statistically significant sample.

 

[Crede777]

So ignore his playoff record and stats?

Listen I like Bob. Wish we could sign him to a reasonable 4-5 year deal. Doesn't seem likely.

He's played some great hockey for us, but no way in the world would I pay him what he wants. Not many teams have 1 workhorse goalie playing 65 games/year and making $10M per. It doesn't allow him to be fresh in playoffs. It doesn't allow us to develop any other goalies and quite frankly it hamstrings us to paying a 2nd goalie a pretty low salary.
Bob plays his best hockey as the 1A goalie. He never seems to play well when sharing time and if he's only playing 50 games/year you can't pay him $10M.
Thanks Bob appreciate everything, hope you get the contract you want elsewhere. But for now play your best to earn that next contract.

I'll role the dice on another path to winning a playoff series (that every other team has managed to climb).

You don't ignore it, but you let it only account for as much as any small sample of games should.

You don't draw an arbitrary circle around it and say "it's the playoffs so it automatically means more."

 

[thebus88]

You don't ignore it, but you let it only account for as much as any small sample of games should.

You don't draw an arbitrary circle around it and say "it's the playoffs so it automatically means more."

"Tough Teams Bobrovsky"

 

[major major]

Simply saying "wrong" does not make it so.

Run a statistical analysis. I guarantee you those games don't represent a statistically significant sample.

My research question has always been

"what's more predictive of Bob's future playoff performance, his past playoff performances or his past regular season performances? "

You'd first have to figure out if these are two separate activities at all even? They'd have to be very different to justify ditching Bob's twenty times larger regular season sample. If we had big playoff samples from goalies in the past where we could see them deviating from regular season performance that would be helpful in figuring out if it's the same job. Where I'm at now I think it's the same job. His performance last Spring certainly doesn't lead me away from that view.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Simply saying "wrong" does not make it so.

Run a statistical analysis. I guarantee you those games don't represent a statistically significant sample.

Why don't you run it? 19 games. Never a games with less than 3 allowed.

Bob has played in 19 playoff games since he came into the league in 2010-11. Here are the stats for all goalies who have played 19 playoff games since 2010-11:
NHL.com - Stats

He's 27th of 27 in goals against average and 26th out of 27 in save percentage. If you think this is insignificant, random or lacking sample size so be it. I'd be willing to bet you that almost every one of the 31 NHL GMs would think otherwise.

 

[major major]

If you think this is insignificant, random or lacking sample size so be it. I'd be willing to bet you that almost every one of the 31 NHL GMs would think otherwise.

So our new question is: do any GMs know Statistics?

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

You don't draw an arbitrary circle around it and say "it's the playoffs so it automatically means more."

You don't? Because I think I do.

 

[Crede777]

Why don't you run it? 19 games. Never a games with less than 3 allowed.

Bob has played in 19 playoff games since he came into the league in 2010-11. Here are the stats for all goalies who have played 19 playoff games since 2010-11:
NHL.com - Stats

He's 27th of 27 in goals against average and 26th out of 27 in save percentage. If you think this is insignificant, random or lacking sample size so be it. I'd be willing to bet you that almost every one of the 31 NHL GMs would think otherwise.

Even if we conceded that it represents a statistically significant sample - which we shouldn't but for the sake of argument will - I find it hard to believe that "Bobrovsky psyches himself out" is more likely of an explanation than the two factors I posted above. Quality of competition and wear from a long season.

In the 2017-2018 regular season the Capitals scored 4, 3, 4, and 1 goal against the Jackets for a GAA of 3.00. The Pens scored 3, 5, 5, 5 against the Jackets for a GAA of 4.50.

Perhaps his performance against Washington in the playoffs was simply a continuation of the team's results against them in the regular season.

 

[Monk]

Even if we conceded that it represents a statistically significant sample - which we shouldn't but for the sake of argument will - I find it hard to believe that "Bobrovsky psyches himself out" is more likely of an explanation than the two factors I posted above. Quality of competition and wear from a long season.

In the 2017-2018 regular season the Capitals scored 4, 3, 4, and 1 goal against the Jackets for a GAA of 3.00. The Pens scored 3, 5, 5, 5 against the Jackets for a GAA of 4.50.

Perhaps his performance against Washington in the playoffs was simply a continuation of the team's results against them in the regular season.

19 game sample size is a bit misleading, as well. It's really a number of 4-7 game sample sizes mashed together for the sake of argument.

CBJ have been in Columbus for nearly 2 decades and never won a playoff series. Maybe Columbus is the problem, that's a pretty huge sample size.

 

[Crede777]

19 game sample size is a bit misleading, as well. It's really a number of 4-7 game sample sizes mashed together for the sake of argument.

CBJ have been in Columbus for nearly 2 decades and never won a playoff series. Maybe Columbus is the problem, that's a pretty huge sample size.

Maybe, but I still find "it's in Bob's head" to be a less than compelling argument.

 

[Monk]

Maybe, but I still find "it's in Bob's head" to be a less than compelling argument.

I couldn't agree more.

 

[JacketsDavid]

"Tough Teams Bobrovsky"

Thing is if you sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard team it will usually always be a tough team playing against. I don't see that path getting any easier. I get that we drew some very good teams (Washington and Penguins) but we will have to go through them in our division.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Even if we conceded that it represents a statistically significant sample - which we shouldn't but for the sake of argument will - I find it hard to believe that "Bobrovsky psyches himself out" is more likely of an explanation than the two factors I posted above. Quality of competition and wear from a long season.

In the 2017-2018 regular season the Capitals scored 4, 3, 4, and 1 goal against the Jackets for a GAA of 3.00. The Pens scored 3, 5, 5, 5 against the Jackets for a GAA of 4.50.

Perhaps his performance against Washington in the playoffs was simply a continuation of the team's results against them in the regular season.

You can look at it this way. I'll admit to your take on his post season play to be a possibility. I just can't look at it as a probability.

FWIW, if he shakes his playoff blues, I won't be completely shocked. I just can't attribute his post season performance to the factors which you do.

I'll also add that it appears that you completely discount any psychological angle about Bob's performances or that you don't believe that "pressure" is a valid concept. I can't speak for anyone else, but I have had pressure situations where I've let the situation get to me and my performance was miserable. I don't see why it's a stretch to think that some players have problems performing when the pressure is the greatest. After 19 games of mostly poor performances, I think that it's more than likely that something is going on in Bob's head that isn't during the regular season.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

So our new question is: do any GMs know Statistics?

Probably a lot better than you do.

I'm not so sure that a 19 game PLAYOFF sample isn't significant despite the protestation of a few here.

What would be interesting is to see if Bob has ever, in his entire career, had a 19 game stretch of a regular season with as poor a performance as he has had in his 19 playoff games.

 

[Monk]

Probably a lot better than you do.

I'm not so sure that a 19 game PLAYOFF sample isn't significant despite the protestation of a few here.

What would be interesting is to see if Bob has ever, in his entire career, had a 19 game stretch of a regular season with as poor a performance as he has had in his 19 playoff games.

But again.. those 19 games aren't all in a row so it doesn't really make sense to compare to 19 games in a row during the regular season. You'd probably be better served looking at his track record against the teams he's played in the POs, which I think someone already did above.

 

[KJ Dangler]

You can look at it this way. I'll admit to your take on his post season play to be a possibility. I just can't look at it as a probability.

FWIW, if he shakes his playoff blues, I won't be completely shocked. I just can't attribute his post season performance to the factors which you do.

I'll also add that it appears that you completely discount any psychological angle about Bob's performances or that you don't believe that "pressure" is a valid concept. I can't speak for anyone else, but I have had pressure situations where I've let the situation get to me and my performance was miserable. I don't see why it's a stretch to think that some players have problems performing when the pressure is the greatest. After 19 games of mostly poor performances, I think that it's more than likely that something is going on in Bob's head that isn't during the regular season.

John Cooper, former buckeyes coach, elite players, had the best team in the country multiple times during his tenure, yet 2-10-1 vs Michigan...... former players said the coach got so tense, uptight during Michigan week, it carried over to his players, of trying to play the perfect game, rather than their game. Anyone trying to discount the pshychlogical aspect that occurs in sports, is clueless. Fact of the Matter, hes a total different player in the playoffs , then he is during the regular season, so the front office, rightfully so, have asked him to see a sports psychologist. Bob has refused. He may not like that hes in the situation hes in, but his record is, what it is. Seems the team was interested in trying to help Bob take his game to the next level, but hes refused. So why would you, as the Gm, want to invest an absurd amount of money in him. He will be traded soon, and someone elses problem. The jackets dont need a top $ goalie anymore. Bring in a solid goalie, that has had some results in the playoffs, take the 6-7 mill you save in not over paying Bob, and get a player like Stone. We need more top end talent, and thats before bread possibly leaves.