LeBrun: Senators have "kicked tires" on Jakob Chychrun

[Big Muddy]

A Zaitsev dump will cost as much or more at the deadline as it will right now. Costs are always higher at the deadline because of the desperation/necessity involved at that time.

Also, if whatever teams OTT would like to dump Zaitsev to are on his no trade list, it's more likely he's willing to waive if it's in the summer than mid season (not sure if he's got kids in school, etc.).

Finally, as has been mentioned, AZ would take less of a sweetener to take on Zaitsev if it's part of a Chychrun deal than if Zaitsev is dumped in a stand-alone deal -- for example a single 2nd or similar prospect, vs. 2 2nds or a 1st if he was moved in a standalone dump.

So there is merit for OTT to dump Zaitsev now if it's part of a Chychrun deal.

I don't agree with that. Zaitsev will have just one year left at that point. There could be teams with injuries on their blueline, and Ottawa can retain if its just one year.

Senator fans are exuberant right now and that's understandable given the last few years. But one year of Zaitsev as a 3rd pairing guy isn't as horrible as some think imho.

This whole topic has been beaten to death. I haven't posted anything here for awhile which was probably wiser than my recent posts. Its gotten very old and its far away not the end of the world for the Senators if this doesn't happen. Patience is a virtue but I don't think its a popular one right now amongst a segment of the fan base.

 

[hbk]

As I said above, I bet that, if this trade happens, it's for far cheaper than most people expect. If the offers suggested by most other posters had been made this would be done already.

All that remains to be seen is whether Armstrong feels like he has to move chychrun. Most people wouldnt have thought hawks had to move debrincat. They determined otherwise and the price surprised us.

Hopefully the same happens here. For now, I hope Dorion does no walking in either direct. Just sit back and wait.

The pressure Chicago had is the Bedard tank. AZ had a 2 year head start on this race and are fairly confident of a top 3 pick fir next year.

Anyone know if Cba has changed in regards to holdouts since the Yashin dispute and if Chychrun did hold out the entire season then Chychrun’s contract would merely be tolled (and Chychrun would lose a year of UFA salary). That seems unlikely to me if that precedent (which Ottawa set with Yashin) still is the standard.

 

[Golden_Jet]

JBD would be 11th-14th on my list of Sens prospects.

Sounds like a great prospects then.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Depends on if you trust Garrioch.

Now that he's lost his main man, I would tend to trust him a lot less, but nevertheless I hadn't read that, so maybe that really is the holdup.

 

[rt]

Wow, thanks man. Sens really do have the best prospect pool in the game

I see it as deep.

They have three top prospects and then they have Kleven and Sogaard who I personally value a bit higher in a Chychrun trade specifically because of Arizona’s needs and my own biases. That’s my top five. But 4-5 aren’t worth a whole lot more than 2nd round picks.

Then there’s a huge pile of kids that I rate about the same. Boucher, Jarventie, Ostapchuk, Sokolov, and Thomson. I don’t have an order to rank them in. It’s a pile. That’s my top ten.

Now, I’d rather have those five than a 2nd rounder. But I’d rather have a first rounder than any of those five. They aren’t worth much more than a 2nd. Or much less than the two kids I have above them.

The tier below that, is kids I’d rather take a 2nd, instead of them. JBD, Brannstrom, Nordberg, Roger, Hamara, etc. I don’t really know how I’d rank the kids in this group either. But they’re not in my top ten of prospects I’d want to poach from Ottawa.

So yes, JBD would probably be ranked 11th or later for me. But the kids rated 6-10th, I don’t value much more highly than a 2nd rounder. I don’t see them as particularly high-end prospects.

 

[jmelm]

I don't agree with that. Zaitsev will have just one year left at that point. There could be teams with injuries on their blueline, and Ottawa can retain if its just one year.

Senator fans are exuberant right now and that's understandable given the last few years. But one year of Zaitsev as a 3rd pairing guy isn't as horrible as some think imho.

This whole topic has been beaten to death. I haven't posted anything here for awhile which was probably wiser than my recent posts. Its gotten very old and its far away not the end of the world for the Senators if this doesn't happen. Patience is a virtue but I don't think its a popular one right now amongst a segment of the fan base.

I thought you were talking about THIS year's trade deadline. I don't think there's a material change in value (aka cap dump cost) to dump him at this year's deadline vs. this summer. Sure, I understand that some of the salary he earns during the '22-'23 season would have been paid, but it will still be costly if moved at the deadline because of what the deadline does to trade values (increases them across the board).

OTOH, if you're talking about moving him AFTER the season -- specifically next summer, and even more specifically if it's after his summer 2023 bonus is paid -- then of course he would be less costly to dump if he has just one year left on his deal.

But once again, if it would cost a 1st or 2 2nds to dump Zaitsev now, and only a single second to dump him in the summer of 2023, Arizona would certainly be willing to take on a Zaitsev dump for a lot less than "market value" if it was part of a bigger Chychrun deal -- such as a single 2nd rounder instead of 2 2nds or a 1st.

All of that said, and as you implied: OTT does NOT need to move Zaitsev out to be able to fit Chcyhrun's contract under the salary cap. Their internal cap may be different, but it's not essential to be under the cap for this season. Zaitsev's contract is really only an issue next summer when players like DeBrincat and others will be due raises or extensions (or others who would need to be replaced if they walk by UFA) and having Zaitsev's cap hit on the books would be problematic.

 

[Big Muddy]

OTOH, if you're talking about moving him AFTER the season -- specifically next summer, and even more specifically if it's after his summer 2023 bonus is paid -- then of course he would be less costly to dump if he has just one year left on his deal.

Ya, the part that I didn't delete (see above) is another option.

The point is there are numerous options for Zaitsev including: a) Moving him at the deadline b) Moving him next summer c) Sticking him in the AHL d) Limiting his role & ice time by playing him on the 3d pair (possibly even just in a rotation with other players).

Getting Chychrun and losing a couple of 1st, or Pinto, Grieg or whatever else some fantasize about is not going to happen imho. We already seeing words out of Dorion's mouth recently that strongly suggest this.

Ottawa will be inserting a lot of ELCs into their lineup starting next year. So, there's the financial side of things that some folks don't want to talk about. Its necessary thing, but not that sexy to talk about. But, it will be another foundational element behind what will, or will not happen.

Anyhow, I'm not aiming anything at anybody in particular (and not you), but this thread has become tiring to say the least. Training camp starts on Sept.11th so it won't be too surprising to me to see this blow over (or blow away). The urgency, desperation or whatever its called will dissipate or largely dissipate I'd guess.

 

[jmelm]

Ya, the part that I didn't delete (see above) is another option.

The point is there are numerous options for Zaitsev including: a) Moving him at the deadline b) Moving him next summer c) Sticking him in the AHL d) Limiting his role & ice time by playing him on the 3d pair (possibly even just in a rotation with other players).

Getting Chychrun and losing a couple of 1st, or Pinto, Grieg or whatever else some fantasize about is not going to happen imho. We already seeing words out of Dorion's mouth recently that strongly suggest this.

Ottawa will be inserting a lot of ELCs into their lineup starting next year. So, there's the financial side of things that some folks don't want to talk about. Its necessary thing, but not that sexy to talk about. But, it will be another foundational element behind what will, or will not happen.

Anyhow, I'm not aiming anything at anybody in particular (and not you), but this thread has become tiring to say the least. Training camp starts on Sept.11th so it won't be too surprising to me to see this blow over (or blow away). The urgency, desperation or whatever its called will dissipate or largely dissipate I'd guess.

I agree that this thread has been beaten to death and there's only so many proposals people can make using the same handful of pieces.

The fact of the matter is that we have NO IDEA how much OTT is interested in Chychrun, nor do we have any idea how much of a priority it is for them to dump Zaitsev and when they may want to do it.

But the one thing that I will say is I put ZERO stock in what Dorion or anyone else says publicly. That's just negotiating through the media and that's of zero relevance. The only thing that matters is what conversations are going on privately.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

The fact of the matter is that we have NO IDEA how much OTT is interested in Chychrun, nor do we have any idea how much of a priority it is for them to dump Zaitsev and when they may want to do it.

Our GM was on the radio yesterday and when asked about the D he named four players who were locks and Zaitsev was not one of them. We really, really want to get rid of him, he is really bad.

I believe Dorion really wants to get a top 4 D and Chychrun is the best that is supposed to be available. The biggest stumbling block is probably Arizona wanting our 1st and one of our best prospects: we have been a bottom feeder for a while; if we suck and give up a high 1st and a great prospect for a good but not great player, that will be a bad trade and Dorion already got burned in a similar fashion when trading for Duchene.

Odds are good that if Arizona keeps asking for the moon we will roll the dice with Thomson and/or JBD who are solid prospects. JBD looks like a smart player who skates very well and Thomson is a hard player with a great one timer, something we have not had for a while.

 

[Big Muddy]

Our GM was on the radio yesterday and when asked about the D he named four players who were locks and Zaitsev was not one of them. We really, really want to get rid of him, he is really bad.

I believe Dorion really wants to get a top 4 D and Chychrun is the best that is supposed to be available. The biggest stumbling block is probably Arizona wanting our 1st and one of our best prospects: we have been a bottom feeder for a while; if we suck and give up a high 1st and a great prospect for a good but not great player, that will be a bad trade and Dorion already got burned in a similar fashion when trading for Duchene.

Odds are good that if Arizona keeps asking for the moon we will roll the dice with Thomson and/or JBD who are solid prospects. JBD looks like a smart player who skates very well and Thomson is a hard player with a great one timer, something we have not had for a while.

I've been leaning in this direction for a bit now. I think Dorion could be doing a preemptive move by mentioning what he did yesterday i.e., Chychrun or the big RD is not happening now (at least before the beginning of the season). It's not like this is the first time we've seen this happening.

I get the optimism amongst Senator fans, but a GM must operate within real world constraints. You can keep adding, but there will always be a cost, both in terms of assets/futures and financially (cap or self imposed cap).

 

[Langdon Alger]

JBD would be 11th-14th on my list of Sens prospects.

And I’m sure you’re an expert on Ottawa’s prospects.

 

[hbk]

And I’m sure you’re on an expert on Ottawa’s prospects.

rt had chltv and hockey tv apps. AZ fans had 5 picks in first two rounds this past yeat and most of us were watching a lot of non nhl hockey last season.

If u want to gauge rt’s tv scouting abilities he posts a lot (surprise i know) in the Coyote draft threads. This notion that an AZ fan can’t have opinions on prospects of other teams is ridiculous and reeks a little of hockey elitism.

 

[JTBF81]

I don’t personally rate Jarventie above the Thomson, Boucher, Ostapchuk, Sokolov tier. He’s kinda right in the mix there, with that group for me.

Yeah, fair enough. But if a trade does happen and Arizona can't get one of Greig/Pinto/Jarventie(based on some reports) nor two 1sts straight across, do you think Arizona would do:
'23 1st(top 3 protected)
Sogaard
1 of Boucher/Ostapchuk/Kleven/Thomson/
Sokolov
'23 2nd
'24 WSH 2nd
Brannstrom
Zaitsev
I realize it's still more of the quantity over quality package in terms of no true blue chip prospect, but the value seems there if Arizona would do this type of deal rather than the fewer pieces/higher quality package with a Greig or Pinto type.

 

[Langdon Alger]

rt had chltv and hockey tv apps. AZ fans had 5 picks in first two rounds this past yeat and most of us were watching a lot of non nhl hockey last season.

If u want to gauge rt’s tv scouting abilities he posts a lit in the Coyote draft threads.

Who are you? His agent?

 

[hbk]

Who are you? His agent?

AZ board is pretty good. rt and i debate all the time on our draft threads. He watches a ton of prospects which is why i enjoy his opinion (but not necessarily his 1000 trade proposals).

 

[jmelm]

Our GM was on the radio yesterday and when asked about the D he named four players who were locks and Zaitsev was not one of them. We really, really want to get rid of him, he is really bad.

I believe Dorion really wants to get a top 4 D and Chychrun is the best that is supposed to be available. The biggest stumbling block is probably Arizona wanting our 1st and one of our best prospects: we have been a bottom feeder for a while; if we suck and give up a high 1st and a great prospect for a good but not great player, that will be a bad trade and Dorion already got burned in a similar fashion when trading for Duchene.

Odds are good that if Arizona keeps asking for the moon we will roll the dice with Thomson and/or JBD who are solid prospects. JBD looks like a smart player who skates very well and Thomson is a hard player with a great one timer, something we have not had for a while.

Ok, so let's ignore Zaitsev for a moment.

When you say "a 1st AND one of your best prospects", I'm curious to know who you put in that category besides Sanderson, Greig and Sogaard? Because most of the reasonable proposals that are being put forth by AZ or neutral fans are comprised of packages that do not include one of those 3 guys.

OTT without Chychrun has a legit chance to get into the playoffs. Adding Chychrun without taking any key players off your roster only enhances that chance. So the 1st rounder (which would presumably have some kind of lottery protection whether that's top 5 or top 10 or something in between) is likely to be in the middle of the 1st round. That is obviously not nearly enough by itself for Chychrun so that's why other pieces need to be added.

For argument's sake, if Greig was on the table then the 1st rounder may not need to be included. It might be a couple of smaller pieces like a 2nd + 3rd spread over different years. But if all of Greig/Sanderson/Sogaard aren't on the table, then the other pieces need to better -- and that's not even factoring in a Zaitsev cap dump.

So what do you think is a fair proposal, with and without Zaitsev? (not sure if you posted one already but I haven't read every page of this thread)

 

[SensontheRush]

JBD would be 11th-14th on my list of Sens prospects.

Personally, I would HATE to give up JBD. Underrated prospect, so if you get him, I think you are getting a great player.

Already a great player defensively IMO, and whenever he moves the puck I'm reminded of Chabot. Same puck carrying style.

Obviously you want to set the bar high when trading, but I just figured I'd offer a scouting report.

 

[Wondercarrot]

Who are you? His agent?

This thread in general has been pretty respectful start to finish, and as a Sens fan I’ve found RT to be exactly that and surprisingly knowledgeable about our prospects while keeping this thread on track.
So while you weren’t talking to me - I’m happy to be his agent lol

 

[jmelm]

Personally, I would HATE to give up JBD. Underrated prospect, so if you get him, I think you are getting a great player.

Already a great player defensively IMO, and whenever he moves the puck I'm reminded of Chabot. Same puck carrying style.

Obviously you want to set the bar high when trading, but I just figured I'd offer a scouting report.

I think given where OTT is in their competitive cycle and their organizational depth, if I were them, I'd rather keep guys like JBD and Thomson and the like, because they're closer to being contributors. And instead look at trading future pieces that are further out in a trade for Chychrun or anyone else.

And I think Arizona is fine with those kind of pieces as well given where they are, whereas some other teams may look to have guys who are closer to being NHL ready when trading an established player.

 

[Wondercarrot]

Personally, I would HATE to give up JBD. Underrated prospect, so if you get him, I think you are getting a great player.

Already a great player defensively IMO, and whenever he moves the puck I'm reminded of Chabot. Same puck carrying style.

Obviously you want to set the bar high when trading, but I just figured I'd offer a scouting report.

Both JBD and Thomson have somehow been reduced to these hangers on while the reality they have grown/progressed every year and are now ready for the NHL kind of as expected. We just don’t want them to be thrust into a top 4 role when we have massively upgraded the team and are pushing.
I rate Thomson a little higher but he’s also had more games in the NHL.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Ok, so let's ignore Zaitsev for a moment.

When you say "a 1st AND one of your best prospects", I'm curious to know who you put in that category besides Sanderson, Greig and Sogaard? Because most of the reasonable proposals that are being put forth by AZ or neutral fans are comprised of packages that do not include one of those 3 guys.

OTT without Chychrun has a legit chance to get into the playoffs. Adding Chychrun without taking any key players off your roster only enhances that chance. So the 1st rounder (which would presumably have some kind of lottery protection whether that's top 5 or top 10 or something in between) is likely to be in the middle of the 1st round. That is obviously not nearly enough by itself for Chychrun so that's why other pieces need to be added.

For argument's sake, if Greig was on the table then the 1st rounder may not need to be included. It might be a couple of smaller pieces like a 2nd + 3rd spread over different years. But if all of Greig/Sanderson/Sogaard aren't on the table, then the other pieces need to better -- and that's not even factoring in a Zaitsev cap dump.

So what do you think is a fair proposal, with and without Zaitsev? (not sure if you posted one already but I haven't read every page of this thread)

I don't really do trade proposals because I feel I'm way out of my depth.

I'd be ok with Greig++ but I'd have a real hard time doing 2023 1st + Greig. I'm confident that the Senators are much improved but the division is very strong and until we don't finish at the bottom of the standings we've been a bottom feeder. That 1st could end up being very high and Greig looks like he could be an outstanding player.

I'm honestly surprised at how so many people seem to think JBD is a throw-in. I don't think he's likely to turn into an impact top pairing D but he's a solid RD prospect with good pedigree.

I offered 2023 1st, 2023 2nd, JBD, Kleven, Zaitsev for Chychrun. I think that would a very good return but the Arizona fans seem to not like it which surprised me. They seemed to indicate they prefer Boucher over JBD?

 

[playasRus]

I'm sure he'd rather get his paycheck 2x a month than retire. But those are basically his options.

3 years is a long time to keep your young #1D.

I'm with the team that thinks Arizona may as well hold on to him even if he requests a trade but they think they're not getting their money's worth. Contract is binding. If he's going to sulk that's on him.

Ottawa's roster from 3 years ago is 80% gone. Chychrun could be leading a whole different team in 3 years.

Wonder if a Chychrun is good enough to make a Chychrun - Zaitsev second pair could rehab Zaitsev's image and bolster his value for the next offseason, however Arizona does need to reach the floor - they could acquire a different cap dump for a 2nd from another team.

Chabot - Zub
Chychrun - Zaitsev
Sanderson - Hamonic
Holden

 

[Hale The Villain]

Sens fans are clueless if they don't think Zaitsev has significant negative value.

There's no question he has negative value. Cost to dump cap has been significant this off-season.

But if the Sens are going to be giving up two 1sts + a good prospect or two for Chychrun in one of the most slanted buyer's markets in years where every good player traded returned less than expected, taking on Zaitsev should be considered a cost of doing business.

 

[jmelm]

There's no question he has negative value. Cost to dump cap has been significant this off-season.

But if the Sens are going to be giving up two 1sts + a good prospect or two for Chychrun in one of the most slanted buyer's markets in years where every good player traded returned less than expected, taking on Zaitsev should be considered a cost of doing business.

No, and I think all AZ fans and neutral observers are saying this in unison: some cost has to be paid for taking on Zaitsev BUT it will be less than if he was dumped in a standalone deal.

 

[ScoreZeGoals]

The tires have got to be worn down from all this kicking by now