LeBrun: Senators have "kicked tires" on Jakob Chychrun

[rt]

I'd offer

To OTT:
Chychrun

To ARI:
Zaitsev
JBD
Kleven
OTT '23 1st
OTT '23 2nd

That seems like a very good return but I am decently high on JBD. He has strong second pairing upside.

JBD would be 11th-14th on my list of Sens prospects.

 

[tomd]

LA and AZ were pretty deep in trade discussions at one point. Same with Rangers and Columbus. In fact Chychymay have torpedoed a trade to Columbus at the draft and if that’s true then i doubt Armstrong is going to want a lesser package than what he was going to receive from Columbus.

Free agency happened between the draft and now. Money has been spent and most teams have their rosters pretty much set and are focusing on signing any remaining RFA's. I'm not discounting that Chychrun could still be traded but it is a buyer's market right now.

 

[hbk]

Free agency happened between the draft and now. Money has been spent and most teams have their rosters pretty much set and are focusing on signing any remaining RFA's. I'm not discounting that Chychrun could still be traded but it is a buyer's market right now.

Who did LA pick up on D that would deter them from pursuing Chychrun? Yes they need to move salary but they also have 2x$5M goalies and AZ is looking for a G because we have Vejmelka and that’s it.

 

[GCK]

JBD would be 11th-14th on my list of Sens prospects.

Then we obviously have the best prospect pool.

 

[tomd]

Who did LA pick up on D that would deter them from pursuing Chychrun? Yes they need to move salary but they also have 2x$5M goalies and AZ is looking for a G because we have Vejmelka and that’s it.

I'm in socal and know the Kings very well. The Chychrun ship has sailed. They've got enough D and worst case will move one of their RHD's to the left side. They sure aren't trading either Quick or Peterson. That makes no sense. Quick will retire as a King and Peterson is his heir apparent. Unless they can steal Chychrun the roster is basically set. And that's what all you Arizona fans are missing...no one truly NEEDS Chychrun at this point.

 

[hbk]

I'm in socal and know the Kings very well. The Chychrun ship has sailed. They've got enough D and worst case will move one of their RHD's to the left side. They sure aren't trading either Quick or Peterson. That makes no sense. Quick will retire as a King and Peterson is his heir apparent. Unless they can steal Chychrun the roster is basically set. And that's what all you Arizona fans are missing...no one truly NEEDS Chychrun at this point.

I’m just tossing ideas out there. Last report we had in AZ about Chychrun was upwards of 6 teams involved and Armstrong holding firm on his ask. On the PhNX podcast it didn’t even sound like Ottawa was a favorite at all to land Chychrun. All the noise is coming out of Ottawa not AZ. Guess we find out in a few weeks whether or not Armstrong is singing a different tune.

 

[JTBF81]

If Ottawa won't give up any of Greig, Pinto, Jarventie or Sogaard, and won't give two 1sts, it should be an easy pass from Arizona. I could see Greig and Pinto not being available, but not the others. Maybe something like:

Ottawa
Chychrun

Arizona
'23 1st(top 3 protected)
Jarventie
Kleven
Brannstrom
'23 2nd
Zaitsev

 

[rt]

If Ottawa won't give up any of Greig, Pinto, Jarventie or Sogaard, and won't give two 1sts, it should be an easy pass from Arizona. I could see Greig and Pinto not being available, but not the others. Maybe something like:

Ottawa
Chychrun

Arizona
'23 1st(top 3 protected)
Jarventie
Kleven
Brannstrom
'23 2nd
Zaitsev

I think that’s good value for Arizona but man oh man is that big pile of stuff. Seems like condensing two lesser pieces into a superior piece would need to happen. Especially when AZ has recently had (and has upcoming) so many 1st and 2nd round draft picks.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

JBD would be 11th-14th on my list of Sens prospects.

Fair enough but he has higher upside than Boucher and is NHL ready, I imagined you'd be much happier getting JBD than Boucher.

The only untouchable prospects I have are Sanderson and Pinto; you can get Greig but then no Kleven.

 

[rt]

Fair enough but he has higher upside than Boucher and is NHL ready, I imagined you'd be much happier getting JBD than Boucher.

The only untouchable prospects I have is Sanderson, you can get Greig but then no Kleven.

I’m good with Greig and the ‘23 1st for Chychrun. For Zaitsev, I’d want Brannstrom and something else. Kastelic?

 

[mouser]

I think that’s good value for Arizona but man oh man is that big pile of stuff. Seems like condensing two lesser pieces into a superior piece would need to happen. Especially when AZ has recently had (and has upcoming) so many 1st and 2nd round draft picks.

I feel like this is one of those common too much quantity and not enough quality packages that often get tossed around on the trade forum.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I’m good with Greig and the ‘23 1st for Chychrun. For Zaitsev, I’d want Brannstrom and something else. Kastelic?

The 1st would have to have some form protection, top 10. Everything else could work.

 

[JTBF81]

I think that’s good value for Arizona but man oh man is that big pile of stuff. Seems like condensing two lesser pieces into a superior piece would need to happen. Especially when AZ has recently had (and has upcoming) so many 1st and 2nd round draft picks.

Yeah, it's a bit more quantity based I suppose, but Jarventie seems to be in a tier just below Greig/Pinto/Sanderson in terms of value. So, '23 1st+Jarventie+Kleven for Chychrun, '23 2nd+Brannstrom for Zaitsev. It isn't as good as 2 1sts plus top prospect, so maybe another pick/prospect should be added.

If Greig is on the table, then sure, '23 1st(top 10 protected), Greig, Brannstrom, '23 or '24 2nd(whichever fits best), and Zaitsev for Chychrun. I know you proposed something like this earlier in the thread, and it seemed like a good deal before the reports came out that Ottawa seemed to not want to move him.

 

[JTBF81]

I feel like this is one of those common too much quantity and not enough quality packages that often get tossed around on the trade forum.

Jarventie is still considered by some as a top 5 prospect for Ottawa and Kleven between 5 and 10, so if Ottawa absolutely refuses to budge on a Greig/Sogaard/Pinto type, getting two prospects of that quality seems, while maybe not equivalent, not that far away. 1st+two prospects in that range may need one more piece, maybe another 2nd or similar prospect, but I guess it depends if Arizona is willing to take that kind of package without what is considered a real "blue chip" prospect I guess.

 

[rt]

I don’t personally rate Jarventie above the Thomson, Boucher, Ostapchuk, Sokolov tier. He’s kinda right in the mix there, with that group for me.

 

[Senscore]

It depends on what you value. Thomson seems like he won't be a top level player but he's shown he can play at the NHL level and could settle in as a 2nd pairing guy if he keeps progressing.

Boucher has all the physical tools to make the NHL and I'm confident he will on athleticism alone but his development has been anything but smooth. Could be a 4th line guy or could end up as something more. He is a project.

Sokolov also is physically ready but his speed isn't ideal and he looked lost in the few games he did play at the NHL level. Could it just be big league jitters or will he find himself limited to a lower line guy.

Jarventie is probably the best total package player of the group (which arguably puts him in a higher tier) but again it depends where you think his skill and development will top out. But he's definitely tracking in the right direction.

 

[Bevans]

I don’t personally rate Jarventie above the Thomson, Boucher, Ostapchuk, Sokolov tier. He’s kinda right in the mix there, with that group for me.

At the same age jarventie was playing well against men in liiiga and ahl ostapchuk, boucher and sokolov were playing in junior.

Sokolov Is a double over ager. Jarventie would need two more years in ahl to be where sokolov is now. I don't see that happening.


I think he's at least a tier above these players for the moment. Two above boucher. At same age, half point per game in liiga is miles above half point per game in ohl.

 

[Big Muddy]

JBD would be 11th-14th on my list of Sens prospects.

That explains a few things.

Then we obviously have the best prospect pool.

Yep.

Someone else mentioned that Dorion is probably more interested in getting the RFAs done. That aligns with a tweet we saw within the last day or two.

Ottawa can revisit dumping Zaitsev later (i.e., at the TDL).

The Senators are going to need to fill slots with ELCs soon (starting next season). The cap crunch is coming their way soon (sooner than some realize) unless the owners lift the self imposed cap, and/or the cap increases more significantly and the owners decide to spend more. More than likely it will take both of those events to occur. But, they can't count on either of those 2 events happening (not right now for sure).

 

[Bevans]

That explains a few things.

Yep.

Someone else mentioned that Dorion is probably more interested in getting the RFAs done. That aligns with a tweet we saw within the last day or two.

Ottawa can revisit dumping Zaitsev later (i.e., at the TDL).

The Senators are going to need to fill slots with ELCs soon (starting next season). The cap crunch is coming their way soon (sooner than some realize) unless the owners lift the self imposed cap, and/or the cap increases more significantly and the owners decide to spend more. They can't count on either of those 2 events happening (not right now for sure).

Let that ship sail (if it hasn't already).

Why does the ship need to sail?

Tough negotiations require deadlines. No deadlines to be seen in late August.

It seems both sides have drawn a line in the sand.

Let's see what happens at Camp. I'm fine with Dorion just sitting back and waiting for Armstrong to come to him.

 

[Big Muddy]

Why does the ship need to sail?

Tough negotiations require deadlines. No deadlines to be seen in late August.

It seems both sides have drawn a line in the sand.

Let's see what happens at Camp. I'm fine with Dorion just sitting back and waiting for Armstrong to come to him.

Dorion can always revisit later, but he needs to stay the course right now. I trust and hope he knows how to negotiate. I'm probably not as desperate as some to get this trade done for reasons I've already stated. Not sure if Sen's fans have even put their heads around the numbers (2023-24), so I wonder how much plays into this. I think I'll remove that sentence because its the least important part of the post by a wide margin.

 

[NyQuil]

 

[Bevans]

Dorion can always revisit later, but he needs to stay the course right now. I trust and hope he knows how to negotiate. I'm probably not as desperate as some to get this trade done for reasons I've already stated. Not sure if Sen's fans have even put their heads around the numbers, so I wonder how much plays into this.

As I said above, I bet that, if this trade happens, it's for far cheaper than most people expect. If the offers suggested by most other posters had been made this would be done already.

All that remains to be seen is whether Armstrong feels like he has to move chychrun. Most people wouldnt have thought hawks had to move debrincat. They determined otherwise and the price surprised us.

Hopefully the same happens here. For now, I hope Dorion does no walking in either direct. Just sit back and wait.

 

[jmelm]

That explains a few things.

Yep.

Someone else mentioned that Dorion is probably more interested in getting the RFAs done. That aligns with a tweet we saw within the last day or two.

Ottawa can revisit dumping Zaitsev later (i.e., at the TDL).

The Senators are going to need to fill slots with ELCs soon (starting next season). The cap crunch is coming their way soon (sooner than some realize) unless the owners lift the self imposed cap, and/or the cap increases more significantly and the owners decide to spend more. More than likely it will take both of those events to occur. But, they can't count on either of those 2 events happening (not right now for sure).

A Zaitsev dump will cost as much or more at the deadline as it will right now. Costs are always higher at the deadline because of the desperation/necessity involved at that time.

Also, if whatever teams OTT would like to dump Zaitsev to are on his no trade list, it's more likely he's willing to waive if it's in the summer than mid season (not sure if he's got kids in school, etc.).

Finally, as has been mentioned, AZ would take less of a sweetener to take on Zaitsev if it's part of a Chychrun deal than if Zaitsev is dumped in a stand-alone deal -- for example a single 2nd or similar prospect, vs. 2 2nds or a 1st if he was moved in a standalone dump.

So there is merit for OTT to dump Zaitsev now if it's part of a Chychrun deal.

 

[Big Muddy]

As I said above, I bet that, if this trade happens, it's for far cheaper than most people expect. If the offers suggested by most other posters had been made this would be done already.

All that remains to be seen is whether Armstrong feels like he has to move chychrun. Most people wouldnt have thought hawks had to move debrincat. They determined otherwise and the price surprised us.

Hopefully the same happens here. For now, I hope Dorion does no walking in either direct. Just sit back and wait.

Ya, I agree with the bolded sentence. When I first saw some Hawk's fan posts in the winter about this, I was surprised.

I think putting a projected 2023-24 roster together (like to see it published as well) with AAVs for each player is a good starting point for (or before) these discussions. That's the starting point imho and would help frame discussions to move them from the hypothetical.

 

[Karl Eriksson]

JBD would be 11th-14th on my list of Sens prospects.

Wow, thanks man. Sens really do have the best prospect pool in the game