Selke Race 2016-2017

[MXD]

They are? Sure there is some difference, but we are talking maybe 10% more frequency for a couple players.

I hope you don't think those charts are actually relevant to... well, anything.

 

[Machinehead]

Panarin’s Rel CA/60 from Corsica:

Venue and Score adjusted = -11.53 (2nd among forwards with 450+ min played)

Venue and Score and Zone adjusted = -8.3 (9th among forwards with 450+ min played)

So you're telling me he's at worst top 10 in the league? Cool.

 

[TMLife*]

Matthews AINEC

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

I'm really skeptical that the usage difference could be "marginal" between a guy starting over a half season, 211 more (faceoff start) shifts in the D-zone and 129 less (faceoff start) shifts in the O-zone. Just reaks of taking historical data to the extremes. It's not as if on-the-fly changes aren't affected by zone starts, as one team is still going to be at an advantage on-the-fly.

 

[Ducks DVM]

No. No it doesn't.

Panarin is still second in the league in CArel if you adjust for zone starts and this is a player with about as extreme a case as you can get for zone starts.

Zone starts are worthless.

You have no data to support this position. There's only 1 player since '06-07 who's had an offensive zone start over 80% with 60+ games played. Only 12 over 70%. That's not enough data points to provide statistically significant conclusions. It doesn't matter how well those points match, exceed, or fall below the plotted line, there's nowhere near enough data to tell if zone starts that far from the mean diverge from your expected results.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Of players with over 150 mins TOI, Panarin has the highest offensive zone start percentage at 84.64%. Next closest is Malkin at 77.64%

Difference of 7% from the next closest. Why the **** would Panarin ever be mentioned here?

Because nothing says Selke like being on pace for blowing away the 2nd lowest number of defensive zone starts for forwards since the '06-07 season by a full 34 fewer starts - on pace for 98!

It's even funnier when you realize he's breaking his own record. The Chicago coaching staff must be insane to be keeping a Selke caliber forward even farther away from their own net this year.

 

[AlphaBravo]

I say this as a Kings fan, but no one better mention Kopitar as a candidate for the Selke this year. He is just awful.

 

[Sojourn]

I'm really skeptical that the usage difference could be "marginal" between a guy starting over a half season, 211 more (faceoff start) shifts in the D-zone and 129 less (faceoff start) shifts in the O-zone. Just reaks of taking historical data to the extremes. It's not as if on-the-fly changes aren't affected by zone starts, as one team is still going to be at an advantage on-the-fly.

You should be skeptical.

 

[Sharppi]

In the last 19 games, Koivu has 20pts and is +20.

 

[DaveyBumbles]

Koivu would be a good choice - we'll see where the season goes, but he looks like a guy who plays the toughest minutes for the Wild, and is having an offensive renaissance.

Face off ace to boot.

 

[lomiller1]

So you're telling me he's at worst top 10 in the league? Cool.

I never suggested otherwise. All I said was that if you are going to look purely at shot suppression stats stats there are others more deserving like Niederreiteer who's at #1 and pretty much neck in neck with Bergeron in the top 3 over the last few years.

 

[lomiller1]

You have no data to support this position.

It's pretty well documented that you need a really big/small number of zone starts before you start to see an impact on shot generation/suppression. Panerin is actually one of the more extreme cases and his CF% only gets moved a few points.

Facing really good possession players can impact a players numbers significantly but no one does that night in night out, so over a season QoC impacts shot suppression/generation even less than zone starts do.

 

[lomiller1]

I'm really skeptical that the usage difference could be "marginal" between a guy starting over a half season, 211 more (faceoff start) shifts in the D-zone and 129 less (faceoff start) shifts in the O-zone.

In Panerins case adjusting for zone starts takes him out of the top 2 and leaves him in the top 10. I guess it's somewhat subjective as to whether that's significant or not but he still finishes well ahead of Koivu.

 

[ijuka]

...Panarin? Let's see him start double digit % of his faceoffs in the defensive zone first before having him for Selke discussion.

In Panerins case adjusting for zone starts takes him out of the top 2 and leaves him in the top 10. I guess it's somewhat subjective as to whether that's significant or not but he still finishes well ahead of Koivu.

Adjusting for zone starts is cool and all but never starting in the defensive zone isn't very good for a defensive award. Is this hard to understand?

 

[Machinehead]

I never suggested otherwise. All I said was that if you are going to look purely at shot suppression stats stats there are others more deserving like Niederreiteer who's at #1 and pretty much neck in neck with Bergeron in the top 3 over the last few years.

Ok. I'd be quite pleased with Niederreiter winning the Selke.

At least he's actually good defensively and doesn't fall into that "big, gritty, plays the game the right way" ****ing fairy tale. Looking at you, Ryan Callahan.

Correct me if I'm wrong, I think you understand that Panarin has played well but you think there's other guys more deserving. I can agree with that.

I just don't think defense from forwards is evaluated well at all, and it's completely and utterly biased towards centers. I don't think we'll see a winger win it again in my lifetime.

Ask 100 Rangers fans who their best defensive forward is, and 97 of them would say Derek Stepan who is a good player, but couldn't shut down a laptop. The correct answer is Chris Kreider or Jesper Fast.

 

[MXD]

One other thing that wasn't mentionned (not lately, anyways) is Penalty Killing.
And it absolutely should matter, considering it's a game situation that implies duties that are mostly 95% defense-oriented.

Issue with this : it's tough separating a player from it's unit, and forwards typically have a lesser importance than D-Men and Goalies, unless you're REALLY special. The last player to fit that bill was probably Guy Carbonneau.

I mean, that's also kind of why there was something of an outrage when Erik Karlsson won his first Norris.

 

[BusQuets]

Ok. I'd be quite pleased with Niederreiter winning the Selke.

At least he's actually good defensively and doesn't fall into that "big, gritty, plays the game the right way" ****ing fairy tale. Looking at you, Ryan Callahan.

Correct me if I'm wrong, I think you understand that Panarin has played well but you think there's other guys more deserving. I can agree with that.

I just don't think defense from forwards is evaluated well at all, and it's completely and utterly biased towards centers. I don't think we'll see a winger win it again in my lifetime.

Ask 100 Rangers fans who their best defensive forward is, and 97 of them would say Derek Stepan who is a good player, but couldn't shut down a laptop. The correct answer is Chris Kreider or Jesper Fast.

Can your stats tell why if Nino is selke worthy forward Wild has Koivu,Staal,Granlund,Coyle,Parise,Zucker and Haula playing PK or starting important defensive zone face-offs at the end of the game? You are just digging yourself deeper here after that Panarin brain fart.

 

[theButton]

Koivu would be a good choice - we'll see where the season goes, but he looks like a guy who plays the toughest minutes for the Wild, and is having an offensive renaissance.

Face off ace to boot.

Koivu plays the toughest minutes for the Wild year in and year out, no question

 

[Machinehead]

Can your stats tell why if Nino is selke worthy forward Wild has Koivu,Staal,Granlund,Coyle,Parise,Zucker and Haula playing PK or starting important defensive zone face-offs at the end of the game? You are just digging yourself deeper here after that Panarin brain fart.

Because coaches are human beings and not robots and not every single thing they do is correct?

Plus, Koivu, Staal, Coyle, and Zucker are also excellent. They're pretty loaded up front defensively.

 

[swiftwin]

Page 4 and still no mention of Mark Stone?

The guy is absolutely godlike at takeaways. He's been in 1st place every single season league wide since he entered the league. He's crushing the competition again this year:

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=takeaways

He's the successor to Datsyuk in this regard, and he won the Selke 3 times.

 

[Machinehead]

Page 4 and still no mention of Mark Stone?

The guy is absolutely godlike at takeaways. He's been in 1st place every single season league wide since he entered the league. He's crushing the competition again this year:

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=takeaways

He's the successor to Datsyuk in this regard, and he won the Selke 3 times.

Stone is

1)A winger

2)Doesn't kill penalties

3)Good at advanced stats

Disqualified.

But yes, he should be in the discussion.

 

[Index]

Page 4 and still no mention of Mark Stone?

The guy is absolutely godlike at takeaways. He's been in 1st place every single season league wide since he entered the league. He's crushing the competition again this year:

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=takeaways

He's the successor to Datsyuk in this regard, and he won the Selke 3 times.

I'm sorry but if you think Stone belongs in the talk, you need to watch a bit more, and look at the past winners.

 

[TT1]

Page 4 and still no mention of Mark Stone?

The guy is absolutely godlike at takeaways. He's been in 1st place every single season league wide since he entered the league. He's crushing the competition again this year:

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=takeaways

He's the successor to Datsyuk in this regard, and he won the Selke 3 times.

oh boy

The best pure defensive foward is J. Staal.. and that's been the case for a while now. Too bad he can't put points to get him into the Selke convo.

 

[MXD]

Mark Stone is actually great defensively.
But Centers are favoured. With cause. More responsibilities (in most systems) and all.

I certainly wouldn't vote him ahead of Koivu for this season (so far). There's also the issue that he might end up suiting for a team that ultimately missed postseason. I don't think there was, at any point, a Selke winner from a non-postseason team.

 

[Deedog99]

Matthews AINEC

Matthews sure gonna win lots of awards this year. Calder selke art Ross. Maybe rocket Richard.