Seattle vs Tampa Bay, Expansion Draft Advantage

[Piffle]

That's not how any of it works. It's the other way around. TB either wants to resign player and in that case all they have to do is having oral agreement prior to expansion draft. No need for any FA to sign contracts prior to expansion draft to force team to protect them.

There may be some players that have a handshake agreement on a deal and wait on it. But I wager most don't. Think about it from the player's perspective. Why would you agree to that when you are likely only limiting the amount of your next contract? It only benefits the team, not the player. The player's best option is to see what they get offered from as many different teams as possible.

 

[Dache]

Tampa Bay obviously has a difficult summer ahead. This has been discussed ad nauseum, but I want to point the level of power Seattle has over these cap issues.

Tampa has 3 ways to resolve their issues and become cap compliant.

1. Expiration of contracts (Ie. Goodrow, Coleman, Schenn, Savard, etc)
2. An expansion pick from Seatle (Depending on protection someone like Gourde, Johnson, Killorn, McDonaugh, or even Palat)
3. Trades and Buy outs.

In the best case scenario Tampa uses all 3 of these maneuvers. However, Seattle has the unique ability to deprive them of one.

IF Seattle signs a free agent from Tampa (ala Engelland from Calgary to Vegas) then Seattle is no longer obligated to take a player from Tampa Bay.

Let's take Coleman for example. If he signs in say Ottawa, and SEATTLE selects Killorn, then Tampa's 2022 Cap Hit is now $6,250,000 lower than 2021.

Now, if SEATTLE signs Coleman, they no longer have to take Killorn- or anyone else. In this scenario, the 2022 Cap Hit is only $1,800,000 lower than 2021. Tampa must then find a way to clear an additional $4,450,000 using option three: Trades and Buy outs.

Should Francis choose to exploit this situation, he can say to Brisebois "I've got an agreement with Coleman (for example) to sign with me. BUT if you pay me not to, I will for go signing a free agent from you. Then I will make an expansion selection. In exchange, I want a pick and I want you to expose a good player, like Palat."

Should Brisbois refuse, Seattle can happily use their selection on signing UFA Coleman and they can offer to make a future cap trade with Tampa. The issue for Tampa in this scenario is that they've now lost the ability to use our original options of 1 and 2, plus the buy out period will pass. All that is left is the trade option; and so, their leverage is decreased.

After a year of watching Tampa run circles around the CBA I would love to watch Francis make this gambit, even if it means slightly overpaying to land that TB free agent.

Thoughts?

But then they trade Killorn and receive an asset back. Maybe a very minor asset but it’s not like Killorn is a cap dump. So either way they end up in the same scenario or slightly better by trading Killorn. I’m sure Seattle will just do what is best for their own roster rather than over complicate things like this

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I mean, they gotta trade their 1st in 2022 and send more draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s) for them to select a guy with a high cap-hit like Johnson or Killorn.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I mean, they gotta trade their 1st in 2022 and send more draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s) for them to select a guy with a high cap-hit like Johnson or Killorn.

Why a first for Killorn? Killorn is a top 6 winger, tied for the lead in Goals on Tampa this playoffs and a career 0.5PPG player in the regular season and playoffs who is signed for two more years 4.45M. It's not like he's an anchor or something. If not for Tampa's cap, he would have easily gotten a late first to high second.

 

[Piffle]

Why a first for Killorn? Killorn is a top 6 winger, tied for the lead in Goals on Tampa this playoffs and a career 0.5PPG player in the regular season and playoffs who is signed for two more years 4.45M. It's not like he's an anchor or something. If not for Tampa's cap, he would have easily gotten a late first to high second.

Because Seattle's alternative is to draft someone cheap from TB, then TB is still in deep cap trouble. Then Seattle bends them over a barrel to take a good player as a cap dump in addition. And Seattle ends up with cheap young player (drafted) + good player with a cap hit (Killorn? traded) + 1st round pick (traded) for nearly nothing. And if TB doesn't want to do the trade, there are plenty of other teams looking to get rid of cap. Seattle is in the driver's seat here.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Tampa Bay obviously has a difficult summer ahead. This has been discussed ad nauseum, but I want to point the level of power Seattle has over these cap issues.

Tampa has 3 ways to resolve their issues and become cap compliant.

1. Expiration of contracts (Ie. Goodrow, Coleman, Schenn, Savard, etc)
2. An expansion pick from Seatle (Depending on protection someone like Gourde, Johnson, Killorn, McDonaugh, or even Palat)
3. Trades and Buy outs.

In the best case scenario Tampa uses all 3 of these maneuvers. However, Seattle has the unique ability to deprive them of one.

IF Seattle signs a free agent from Tampa (ala Engelland from Calgary to Vegas) then Seattle is no longer obligated to take a player from Tampa Bay.

Let's take Coleman for example. If he signs in say Ottawa, and SEATTLE selects Killorn, then Tampa's 2022 Cap Hit is now $6,250,000 lower than 2021.

Now, if SEATTLE signs Coleman, they no longer have to take Killorn- or anyone else. In this scenario, the 2022 Cap Hit is only $1,800,000 lower than 2021. Tampa must then find a way to clear an additional $4,450,000 using option three: Trades and Buy outs.

Should Francis choose to exploit this situation, he can say to Brisebois "I've got an agreement with Coleman (for example) to sign with me. BUT if you pay me not to, I will for go signing a free agent from you. Then I will make an expansion selection. In exchange, I want a pick and I want you to expose a good player, like Palat."

Should Brisbois refuse, Seattle can happily use their selection on signing UFA Coleman and they can offer to make a future cap trade with Tampa. The issue for Tampa in this scenario is that they've now lost the ability to use our original options of 1 and 2, plus the buy out period will pass. All that is left is the trade option; and so, their leverage is decreased.

After a year of watching Tampa run circles around the CBA I would love to watch Francis make this gambit, even if it means slightly overpaying to land that TB free agent.

Thoughts?

to me that is how you burn bridges.

if they want coleman and he will accept fair terms, they should just sign coleman then by all means play the hand that gives them.

but no they should not threaten to overpay coleman to put tampa in a jackpot unless tampa ponies up and if they do that, i am sure tampa will call their bluff then pay more to make a deal with someone else to avoid seattle gaining from it. at which point seattle has nothing but an overpaid coleman.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Because Seattle's alternative is to draft someone cheap from TB, then TB is still in deep cap trouble. Then Seattle bends them over a barrel to take a good player as a cap dump in addition. And Seattle ends up with cheap young player (drafted) + good player with a cap hit (Killorn? traded) + 1st round pick (traded) for nearly nothing. And if TB doesn't want to do the trade, there are plenty of other teams looking to get rid of cap. Seattle is in the driver's seat here.

Vegas can pick whomever, but why give up assets to force them to select Killorn, when they can trade him to another team for a lesser premium, to a team that needs a top 6 winger? Like Edmonton?

Tampa was up against the cap for the Vegas expansion too, and they moved a second and fourth plus Gusev who wasn't even a sure fire to show up in North America to pick Jason Garrison who's cap hit was 4.6M when the cap was 73M and not select Koekkoek and Dotchin. Garrison was done at that point too, but moving an effective top 6 forward is going to cost a first? Ok...

 

[Rschmitz]

Tampa Bay obviously has a difficult summer ahead. This has been discussed ad nauseum, but I want to point the level of power Seattle has over these cap issues.

Tampa has 3 ways to resolve their issues and become cap compliant.

1. Expiration of contracts (Ie. Goodrow, Coleman, Schenn, Savard, etc)
2. An expansion pick from Seatle (Depending on protection someone like Gourde, Johnson, Killorn, McDonaugh, or even Palat)
3. Trades and Buy outs.

In the best case scenario Tampa uses all 3 of these maneuvers. However, Seattle has the unique ability to deprive them of one.

IF Seattle signs a free agent from Tampa (ala Engelland from Calgary to Vegas) then Seattle is no longer obligated to take a player from Tampa Bay.

Let's take Coleman for example. If he signs in say Ottawa, and SEATTLE selects Killorn, then Tampa's 2022 Cap Hit is now $6,250,000 lower than 2021.

Now, if SEATTLE signs Coleman, they no longer have to take Killorn- or anyone else. In this scenario, the 2022 Cap Hit is only $1,800,000 lower than 2021. Tampa must then find a way to clear an additional $4,450,000 using option three: Trades and Buy outs.

Should Francis choose to exploit this situation, he can say to Brisebois "I've got an agreement with Coleman (for example) to sign with me. BUT if you pay me not to, I will for go signing a free agent from you. Then I will make an expansion selection. In exchange, I want a pick and I want you to expose a good player, like Palat."

Should Brisbois refuse, Seattle can happily use their selection on signing UFA Coleman and they can offer to make a future cap trade with Tampa. The issue for Tampa in this scenario is that they've now lost the ability to use our original options of 1 and 2, plus the buy out period will pass. All that is left is the trade option; and so, their leverage is decreased.

After a year of watching Tampa run circles around the CBA I would love to watch Francis make this gambit, even if it means slightly overpaying to land that TB free agent.

Thoughts?

ooooorrrrr Seattle can just select someone cheap and affordable off of Tampa’s roster if they don’t want to negotiate.

 

[Bevans]

to me that is how you burn bridges.

if they want coleman and he will accept fair terms, they should just sign coleman then by all means play the hand that gives them.

but no they should not threaten to overpay coleman to put tampa in a jackpot unless tampa ponies up and if they do that, i am sure tampa will call their bluff then pay more to make a deal with someone else to avoid seattle gaining from it. at which point seattle has nothing but an overpaid coleman.

These are grown men with thick skin. I don't think BB is going to be inviting Francis to a barn just because he offers not to sign a great player like Coleman.

 

[Bevans]

But then they trade Killorn and receive an asset back. Maybe a very minor asset but it’s not like Killorn is a cap dump. So either way they end up in the same scenario or slightly better by trading Killorn. I’m sure Seattle will just do what is best for their own roster rather than over complicate things like this

In a vacuum sure, trade a player. But one trade doesn't fix it, especially if Seattle isn't taking a player.

The fact is that they need all 3 avenues. If they have to trade every player then they have to flip progressively less desireable players for higher prices.

I agree that Tampa has players that other teams will pay something for. I don't agree that they can get under the cap with only hockey trades. Again, especially if they can't use the expansion.

 

[Flyer lurker]

If they sign Coleman then they can't take anyone else. See entire post for explanation.

If Seattle signs Coleman after free agency starts then they can acquire someone else as well at the ED. See entire calendar for explanation.

 

[Flyer lurker]

When the Flyers acquired K Hayes before free agency, it cost them a 5th round pick to acquire his rights. Maybe TBL can get a 4th/5th/6th for Coleman rights. We shall see. But Joseph, Foote, Cernak, Palat, Killorn, Ryan Mc. draft picks to take Johnson off TBL's hands, etc. whomever is out there for SEA is worth a whole lot more than a 5th round pick.

 

[gstommylee]

We'll probably get TJ from tampa either we are payed to take him or we are given him via trade to take someone else.

 

[Flyer lurker]

I mean, they gotta trade their 1st in 2022 and send more draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s) for them to select a guy with a high cap-hit like Johnson or Killorn.

Johnson will cost a 1 plus. No issues there. Why do people hate on Killorn so much on these boards? The guy is an excellent 2 way player. He is a big time leader in TBL's locker room. He is clutch as F BLEEP in the playoffs. regular on PK. PP2 you can play comfortably. 4.45m per is slightly high salary for wing but a reason to trade for him at 2 years left could easily be made over say signing Coleman for 5 years. Killorn just proven winner.

 

[Dache]

In a vacuum sure, trade a player. But one trade doesn't fix it, especially if Seattle isn't taking a player.

The fact is that they need all 3 avenues. If they have to trade every player then they have to flip progressively less desireable players for higher prices.

I agree that Tampa has players that other teams will pay something for. I don't agree that they can get under the cap with only hockey trades. Again, especially if they can't use the expansion.

If they have players that other teams want, why are you saying they have to trade for higher prices? Are you implying they would need to pay people to take players that have positive value? I agree that they have their work cut out for them if they want it done in the most ideal way, but they have plenty of players that other teams will gladly trade for and pay an appropriate amount for. This isn’t the catastrophe that you’re implying

 

[RyCanadian]

I think Seattle will milk TB, not do them favours

I hope this happens.

 

[Bevans]

If Seattle signs Coleman after free agency starts then they can acquire someone else as well at the ED. See entire calendar for explanation.

Expansion draft is 21 days after free agency. If what you're trying to communicate is that Coleman will be a free agent until after the expansion, then I would say that's more far fetched than my thread.

That being said, it is possible.

 

[Bevans]

If they have players that other teams want, why are you saying they have to trade for higher prices? Are you implying they would need to pay people to take players that have positive value? I agree that they have their work cut out for them if they want it done in the most ideal way, but they have plenty of players that other teams will gladly trade for and pay an appropriate amount for. This isn’t the catastrophe that you’re implying

I'm saying they have fewer players of value (that they want to trade) than will fix their issues. There is also less cap space (outside seattle) than necessary to easily resolve their issues.

They will need to pay more than they'd like to fix their cap situation (not a catastrophe just a math problem).

They have more leverage to resolve the math problem if they know a player is going to Seattle.

 

[Black Kevin]

Why make it this complicated for Tampa? It is not in Tampa's best interests to lose Killorn/McDonagh/Palat for free since they can actually get good assets back trading these guys. It's not a problem. Coleman in this equation is irrelevant, it doesn't matter at all if Seattle picks him, or any other Tampa's FAs. If Tampa needs to shed salary, they'll find a trading partner easily. These are quality players we are talking about. That being said, flat cap and all, I might see a situation in which Brisebois pays Francis to take Johnson's contract. But losing McDonagh/Killorn/Palat just to make cap space is utterly stupid asset management.

 

[Ice Mammoth]

I think some of the comments suggest robbing Seattle.
Below I quote my comments (unchanged) May 2-4, 2021.
This is my opinion and it has not changed.

“Bad contracts exchange.
The preference is for bad contracts (with overpriced AAV) of good players.
The minimum cost of one bad contract (term - 1.2 years) = 1st.
Changes to compensation are possible.

Player with bad contract = exchange price - this is true from a simple mathematical point of view.
In fact, this is not the case. This is true of any other club (except Seattle).
Seattle takes a bad contract (in the expansion draft).
Seattle loses a player - whom it could have taken (without an agreement).
Seattle's real profits are less. This must be taken into account.

Transactions:
From Tampa - Killorn + Johnson + Mcdonagh = 1st 22 + 1st 23 + 2nd 23 + 3rd 21.
Why Mcdonagh's contract is rated D + (The Athletic). Johnson - C; Killorn – B”

 

[Flyer lurker]

Expansion draft is 21 days after free agency. If what you're trying to communicate is that Coleman will be a free agent until after the expansion, then I would say that's more far fetched than my thread.

That being said, it is possible.

I am saying there are way way way way way better options than signing Coleman be it talent or salary implications.
They include


Joseph
Palat(if 4x4)
Ryan Mc (if 7x3 or Foote kept in 4x4) Would TBL need to include sweets due to length of the deal? HMMMMM Good question. Guess No but not outlandish if it happens.
C Foote
Killorn(If 4x4)
Picks to take T Johnson
Gourde and draft pick compensation(Like Gourde but at 5.1m he will need sweetner/cap retention to move).


This is what I am communicating.

 

[StreetHawk]

Avoid Johnson unless the incentives to take him are just too great. Like a first plus another asset.
Declining player with 3 years left.

 

[Bevans]

I am saying there are way way way way way better options than signing Coleman be it talent or salary implications.
They include


Joseph
Palat(if 4x4)
Ryan Mc (if 7x3 or Foote kept in 4x4) Would TBL need to include sweets due to length of the deal? HMMMMM Good question. Guess No but not outlandish if it happens.
C Foote
Killorn(If 4x4)
Picks to take T Johnson
Gourde and draft pick compensation(Like Gourde but at 5.1m he will need sweetner/cap retention to move).


This is what I am communicating.

I disagree with your assessment of Coleman.

 

[OrangePMD]

Expansion draft is 21 days after free agency.

No, it isn't. Free agency begins a week after the expansion draft.

 

[CascadiaPuck]

It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Is it good business to alienate someone you will need to make deals with right out the gate? Maybe they should offer sheet young stars on a bunch of teams too. A move like the one in the OP might make more sense if the Lightning were in the same division I guess. I’m not saying it’s a bad idea - but I suspect pragmatism/ longer term thinking will prevail.