Seattle vs Tampa Bay, Expansion Draft Advantage

[Bevans]

Tampa Bay obviously has a difficult summer ahead. This has been discussed ad nauseum, but I want to point the level of power Seattle has over these cap issues.

Tampa has 3 ways to resolve their issues and become cap compliant.

1. Expiration of contracts (Ie. Goodrow, Coleman, Schenn, Savard, etc)
2. An expansion pick from Seatle (Depending on protection someone like Gourde, Johnson, Killorn, McDonaugh, or even Palat)
3. Trades and Buy outs.

In the best case scenario Tampa uses all 3 of these maneuvers. However, Seattle has the unique ability to deprive them of one.

IF Seattle signs a free agent from Tampa (ala Engelland from Calgary to Vegas) then Seattle is no longer obligated to take a player from Tampa Bay.

Let's take Coleman for example. If he signs in say Ottawa, and SEATTLE selects Killorn, then Tampa's 2022 Cap Hit is now $6,250,000 lower than 2021.

Now, if SEATTLE signs Coleman, they no longer have to take Killorn- or anyone else. In this scenario, the 2022 Cap Hit is only $1,800,000 lower than 2021. Tampa must then find a way to clear an additional $4,450,000 using option three: Trades and Buy outs.

Should Francis choose to exploit this situation, he can say to Brisebois "I've got an agreement with Coleman (for example) to sign with me. BUT if you pay me not to, I will for go signing a free agent from you. Then I will make an expansion selection. In exchange, I want a pick and I want you to expose a good player, like Palat."

Should Brisbois refuse, Seattle can happily use their selection on signing UFA Coleman and they can offer to make a future cap trade with Tampa. The issue for Tampa in this scenario is that they've now lost the ability to use our original options of 1 and 2, plus the buy out period will pass. All that is left is the trade option; and so, their leverage is decreased.

After a year of watching Tampa run circles around the CBA I would love to watch Francis make this gambit, even if it means slightly overpaying to land that TB free agent.

Thoughts?

Click to read more...

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Does Seattle have to select Coleman first prior to them even negotiating with him?

 

[Bevans]

Does Seattle have to select Coleman first prior to them even negotiating with him?

No, Coleman would be a FA at this point. So Seattle would be like any other team. It just so happens that IF Seattle signs a TB free agent, then that becomes the expansion pick. This is why Calgary did not lose a player in the expansion draft itself.

Step 1: "Coleman want 4 years at 4 million per?"

Step 2: Coleman says "sure".

Step 3: Francis says "K one sec let me make a call".

Then my power move begins.

 

[M2Beezy]

I think Tampas biggest offseason issue is how to plan the parade with things opening up now

 

[ThatsSoSlavin]

I think Seattle will milk TB, not do them favours

 

[Flyer lurker]

Seattle will not take Coleman for sure. Smarter just to take Joseph or Foote in that case and sign Coleman any way.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Tampa Bay obviously has a difficult summer ahead. This has been discussed ad nauseum, but I want to point the level of power Seattle has over these cap issues.

Tampa has 3 ways to resolve their issues and become cap compliant.

1. Expiration of contracts (Ie. Goodrow, Coleman, Schenn, Savard, etc)
2. An expansion pick from Seatle (Depending on protection someone like Gourde, Johnson, Killorn, McDonaugh, or even Palat)
3. Trades and Buy outs.

In the best case scenario Tampa uses all 3 of these maneuvers. However, Seattle has the unique ability to deprive them of one.

IF Seattle signs a free agent from Tampa (ala Engelland from Calgary to Vegas) then Seattle is no longer obligated to take a player from Tampa Bay.

Let's take Coleman for example. If he signs in say Ottawa, and SEATTLE selects Killorn, then Tampa's 2022 Cap Hit is now $6,250,000 lower than 2021.

Now, if SEATTLE signs Coleman, they no longer have to take Killorn- or anyone else. In this scenario, the 2022 Cap Hit is only $1,800,000 lower than 2021. Tampa must then find a way to clear an additional $4,450,000 using option three: Trades and Buy outs.

Should Francis choose to exploit this situation, he can say to Brisebois "I've got an agreement with Coleman (for example) to sign with me. BUT if you pay me not to, I will for go signing a free agent from you. Then I will make an expansion selection. In exchange, I want a pick and I want you to expose a good player, like Palat."

Should Brisbois refuse, Seattle can happily use their selection on signing UFA Coleman and they can offer to make a future cap trade with Tampa. The issue for Tampa in this scenario is that they've now lost the ability to use our original options of 1 and 2, plus the buy out period will pass. All that is left is the trade option; and so, their leverage is decreased.

After a year of watching Tampa run circles around the CBA I would love to watch Francis make this gambit, even if it means slightly overpaying to land that TB free agent.

Thoughts?

A) Why would Coleman's cap hit be counted in the 6.25M if he is a UFA? The only money that counts to next years cap is Killorn's.

B) It's pretty widely accepted the Coleman is going to walk. He's 30 years old, and this is his last chance to get a big money contract. It won't be with Tampa, so it doesn't matter at all.

C) Killorn isn't some anchor, if you haven't noticed he's tied for the lead in Goals on the Lightning right now. His contract is reasonable to a good deal for what he provides to team. Will we be selling low? Sure, is it going to be some stupid low price because some fantasy of every team in the league cahooting to "stick it Tampa" again for the 7th year in row, no.

D) Trading Killorn isn't going to be hard. The only way your "power move" works is if Francis promises to take Johnson. Otherwise, you think no team in the league wants a Killorn, Palat, or Gourde? What are you smoking?

E) Of Tampa's UFA's this year, the only ones they will try to resign are Goodrow and Schenn. If Seattle wants to sign Coleman or Savard, so be it. Just means we retain assets which we can package with Johnson + Killorn/Gourde/Palat to get a decent piece back with rather than selling super low. Better for us to give a 20% discount rather than a 35% discount.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I think Seattle will milk TB, not do them favours

Just like Vegas did...Tampa was right up against the cap that time too and Vegas got a 2nd, a 4th, and Gusev (who at that time wasn't 100% sure was coming over) to pick Jason Garrison.

 

[majormajor]

More simply put, Tampa obviously needs Seattle to take a player like McDonagh. I agree they might have to pay a pick or something to make it happen.

But Seattle also probably wants McDonagh, so they can only play their cards so much. We might see a 2nd rounder involved, that or nothing at all.

 

[Piffle]

Should Francis choose to exploit this situation, he can say to Brisebois "I've got an agreement with Coleman (for example) to sign with me. BUT if you pay me not to, I will for go signing a free agent from you. Then I will make an expansion selection. In exchange, I want a pick and I want you to expose a good player, like Palat."

I thought the consensus was that Palat was already going to be exposed?

 

[Bevans]

Seattle will not take Coleman for sure. Smarter just to take Joseph or Foote in that case and sign Coleman any way.

If they sign Coleman then they can't take anyone else. See entire post for explanation.

 

[Bevans]

I think Seattle will milk TB, not do them favours

This is not a favour.

 

[Bevans]

A) Why would Coleman's cap hit be counted in the 6.25M if he is a UFA? The only money that counts to next years cap is Killorn's.

B) It's pretty widely accepted the Coleman is going to walk. He's 30 years old, and this is his last chance to get a big money contract. It won't be with Tampa, so it doesn't matter at all.

C) Killorn isn't some anchor, if you haven't noticed he's tied for the lead in Goals on the Lightning right now. His contract is reasonable to a good deal for what he provides to team. Will we be selling low? Sure, is it going to be some stupid low price because some fantasy of every team in the league cahooting to "stick it Tampa" again for the 7th year in row, no.

D) Trading Killorn isn't going to be hard. The only way your "power move" works is if Francis promises to take Johnson. Otherwise, you think no team in the league wants a Killorn, Palat, or Gourde? What are you smoking?

E) Of Tampa's UFA's this year, the only ones they will try to resign are Goodrow and Schenn. If Seattle wants to sign Coleman or Savard, so be it. Just means we retain assets which we can package with Johnson + Killorn/Gourde/Palat to get a decent piece back with rather than selling super low. Better for us to give a 20% discount rather than a 35% discount.

A) The comparison is between this moment and start of next year. FA's leaving means they have more space next year. But not as MUCH relief if the player that leaves goes to Seattle, since it removes the expansion pick.

B) Yes it does matter (if he goes to SEATTLE), see above and my whole post.

C) Didn't say he was an anchor. He was an example. Pick another higher salary name that upsets you less in the example.

D) Didn'y say it was hard. Didn't say it has to be Johnson. I think you've misunderstood most of my post here unfortunately. Especially with your silly smoking comment. Take a deep breath and don't assume my thoughts on no evidence.

E) They can re-sign whoever they like if they have the room. If Tampa doesn't want Seattle to have a expansion pick, so be it but that brings us back to the fact they have less avenues to resolve the cap issue. They can pay Seattle to take whoever they want, Johnson will just be more expensive. I'm not going down a rabbit hole here of gaming out every move, dollar, and trade, just the advantage the rule provides Seattle

Hope this helps. We don't see to be on the same page here.

For context, we've seen from Mantha, Marleau, Foligno, Lehner etc trades that cap space is an expensive asset. Fans always seem to underestimate the value.

 

[Bevans]

More simply put, Tampa obviously needs Seattle to take a player like McDonagh. I agree they might have to pay a pick or something to make it happen.

But Seattle also probably wants McDonagh, so they can only play their cards so much. We might see a 2nd rounder involved, that or nothing at all.

If we want to use McD as an example, then we could present it like this:

Coleman goes anywhere but Seattle: 1.8 mil "relief".
McD to Seattle: 6.75 per

Combined result 8.55 mil, at the cost of whatever Tampa has to pay to encourage Seattle to do this.

Vs

Coleman to Seattle: 1.8 mil.
No expansion pick: 0

Tampa now needs to pay someone else to take the 6.75 mil to get cap compliant. It's closer to the season and their best trading partner (Seattle) has already burnt 10's of million in cap space.

My proposal is simply that option A will be cheaper in the end.

 

[Arzak]

Tampa Bay obviously has a difficult summer ahead. This has been discussed ad nauseum, but I want to point the level of power Seattle has over these cap issues.

Tampa has 3 ways to resolve their issues and become cap compliant.

1. Expiration of contracts (Ie. Goodrow, Coleman, Schenn, Savard, etc)
2. An expansion pick from Seatle (Depending on protection someone like Gourde, Johnson, Killorn, McDonaugh, or even Palat)
3. Trades and Buy outs.

In the best case scenario Tampa uses all 3 of these maneuvers. However, Seattle has the unique ability to deprive them of one.

IF Seattle signs a free agent from Tampa (ala Engelland from Calgary to Vegas) then Seattle is no longer obligated to take a player from Tampa Bay.

Let's take Coleman for example. If he signs in say Ottawa, and SEATTLE selects Killorn, then Tampa's 2022 Cap Hit is now $6,250,000 lower than 2021.

Now, if SEATTLE signs Coleman, they no longer have to take Killorn- or anyone else. In this scenario, the 2022 Cap Hit is only $1,800,000 lower than 2021. Tampa must then find a way to clear an additional $4,450,000 using option three: Trades and Buy outs.

Should Francis choose to exploit this situation, he can say to Brisebois "I've got an agreement with Coleman (for example) to sign with me. BUT if you pay me not to, I will for go signing a free agent from you. Then I will make an expansion selection. In exchange, I want a pick and I want you to expose a good player, like Palat."

Should Brisbois refuse, Seattle can happily use their selection on signing UFA Coleman and they can offer to make a future cap trade with Tampa. The issue for Tampa in this scenario is that they've now lost the ability to use our original options of 1 and 2, plus the buy out period will pass. All that is left is the trade option; and so, their leverage is decreased.

After a year of watching Tampa run circles around the CBA I would love to watch Francis make this gambit, even if it means slightly overpaying to land that TB free agent.

Thoughts?

That's not how any of it works. It's the other way around. TB either wants to resign player and in that case all they have to do is having oral agreement prior to expansion draft. No need for any FA to sign contracts prior to expansion draft to force team to protect them.

All teams in the league are doing it. Boston will wait with resigning Krejci,Hall, Rask for the same reasons ( or won't resign them, but the decision will be made prior to draft, signing after).. Every single team in the league will wait to sign FAs.

Ovi in Washington ? Maybe Seatle will steal Ovi , because he and everybody else is waiting for past expansion free agency?


Also why you using wording like obligated (while simultaneously getting offended when someone points out Seatle got no reasons to do TB any favors)? They either have an option to take a player and they will, or they don't have that option ..

 

[majormajor]

If we want to use McD as an example, then we could present it like this:

Coleman goes anywhere but Seattle: 1.8 mil "relief".
McD to Seattle: 6.75 per

Combined result 8.55 mil, at the cost of whatever Tampa has to pay to encourage Seattle to do this.

Vs

Coleman to Seattle: 1.8 mil.
No expansion pick: 0

Tampa now needs to pay someone else to take the 6.75 mil to get cap compliant. It's closer to the season and their best trading partner (Seattle) has already burnt 10's of million in cap space.

My proposal is simply that option A will be cheaper in the end.

You don't need to write Coleman into your analysis. It just makes it overly complicated, he won't be on Tampa in either scenario. And Seattle would rather have McDonagh than Coleman anyways.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

A) The comparison is between this moment and start of next year. FA's leaving means they have more space next year. But not as MUCH relief if the player that leaves goes to Seattle, since it removes the expansion pick.

B) Yes it does matter (if he goes to SEATTLE), see above and my whole post.

C) Didn't say he was an anchor. He was an example. Pick another higher salary name that upsets you less in the example.

D) Didn'y say it was hard. Didn't say it has to be Johnson. I think you've misunderstood most of my post here unfortunately. Especially with your silly smoking comment. Take a deep breath and don't assume my thoughts on no evidence.

E) They can re-sign whoever they like if they have the room. If Tampa doesn't want Seattle to have a expansion pick, so be it but that brings us back to the fact they have less avenues to resolve the cap issue. They can pay Seattle to take whoever they want, Johnson will just be more expensive. I'm not going down a rabbit hole here of gaming out every move, dollar, and trade, just the advantage the rule provides Seattle

Hope this helps. We don't see to be on the same page here.

For context, we've seen from Mantha, Marleau, Foligno, Lehner etc trades that cap space is an expensive asset. Fans always seem to underestimate the value.

A) Coleman doesn't add or provide any relief regardless because his contract is done this season. He is counted as $0 at the end of the playoffs, with or without the expansion draft. If Seattle decides to sign Coleman, Tampa will just trade Killorn separately.

B) It still doesn't matter if they select Coleman by UFA signing. The only way it matters is if they promise to select Johnson, because that contract will require the most assets to move. If Seattle promises to select Johnson for assets (2nd, 3rd, prospect, etc...), then Tampa makes that deal. Not because the threat of Coleman leaving. He leaves either way. Tampa makes that deal because it gets Johnson off the books. If Seattle wants 1st + selecting Gourde/Killorn/Palat, it would cost significantly less to trade those players separately and we get to keep our 1sts plus prospects. Not really hard to understand that using any of our UFA's is not a threat. If anything it makes life for Tampa significantly easier because they can start working on trades sooner.

C) All the higher paid players on Tampa have NTC's. But barring something there, it still doesn't change the fact that teams would be lining up to get wingers like Killorn, Palat, and Gourde at discounted prices. McDonagh might be harder to move because of age, and length of contract. Teams like Edmonton, Toronto, Detroit, Columbus, Vancouver, St. Louis, Arizona, etc... would be love to have a winger like Palat. Killorn makes any playoff team better. Gourde makes any second to third line better and plays all forward positions. These aren't plugs, and there is a pretty good viable market for them, especially when they are discounted.

D) If you acknowledge it isn't hard, then why is it a power move by Seattle? It wouldn't change anything for Tampa then if the pieces they have to move isn't hard.

E) You don't want to go down the rabbit hole because the more you do, the more you're going to realize your idea isn't some power move and it really isn't a move that matters at all anyways.

The most reasonable situation is Brisebois approaches Francis and offers:

Killorn/Palat/Gourde + 2nd + 4th/prospect to select Johnson and get a 3rd or something in return.

If Francis isn't taking Johnson, then he can pick what's available to him to pick and not get extra assets or sign Coleman and Brisebois makes deals for those 3 forwards.

 

[majormajor]

That's not how any of it works. It's the other way around. TB either wants to resign player and in that case all they have to do is having oral agreement prior to expansion draft. No need for any FA to sign contracts prior to expansion draft to force team to protect them.

All teams in the league are doing it. Boston will wait with resigning Krejci,Hall, Rask for the same reasons ( or won't resign them, but the decision will be made prior to draft, signing after).. Every single team in the league will wait to sign FAs.

Ovi in Washington ? Maybe Seatle will steal Ovi , because he and everybody else is waiting for past expansion free agency?


Also why you using wording like obligated (while simultaneously getting offended when someone points out Seatle got no reasons to do TB any favors)? They either have an option to take a player and they will, or they don't have that option ..

I'm not sure if you're understanding Tampa's situation. Tampa is in cap hell and wants Seattle to take big contracts from them. The problem with Seattle drafting Coleman is that he is already off Tampa's books, Tampa would prefer if Seattle would take a big contract like McDonagh.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

You don't need to write Coleman into your analysis. It just makes it overly complicated, he won't be on Tampa in either scenario. And Seattle would rather have McDonagh than Coleman anyways.

McDonagh is a big gamble IMO for Seattle. 31 years old, signed for another 5 years. He's been great this year and the playoffs, but his playstyle isn't going to age well most likely in the last 2 or 3 years of that contract.

 

[StreetHawk]

More simply put, Tampa obviously needs Seattle to take a player like McDonagh. I agree they might have to pay a pick or something to make it happen.

But Seattle also probably wants McDonagh, so they can only play their cards so much. We might see a 2nd rounder involved, that or nothing at all.

Seattle would be wise to avoid mcdonagh. 32 this year with 5 years left at almost $7 mill cap hit per.
Got a couple good years left but mid 30 year old Dmen that have played as much as he has in terms of hard minutes I don’t bank on aging well.

 

[majormajor]

McDonagh is a big gamble IMO for Seattle. 31 years old, signed for another 5 years. He's been great this year and the playoffs, but his playstyle isn't going to age well most likely in the last 2 or 3 years of that contract.

If I'm Seattle he's a player I want, but a player I have to be paid to take. He'd be a fantastic leader for them to begin with, they just need Tampa to pay them some assets to compensate for the term on the deal.

 

[Bevans]

That's not how any of it works. It's the other way around. TB either wants to resign player and in that case all they have to do is having oral agreement prior to expansion draft. No need for any FA to sign contracts prior to expansion draft to force team to protect them.

All teams in the league are doing it. Boston will wait with resigning Krejci,Hall, Rask for the same reasons ( or won't resign them, but the decision will be made prior to draft, signing after).. Every single team in the league will wait to sign FAs.

Ovi in Washington ? Maybe Seatle will steal Ovi , because he and everybody else is waiting for past expansion free agency?


Also why you using wording like obligated (while simultaneously getting offended when someone points out Seatle got no reasons to do TB any favors)? They either have an option to take a player and they will, or they don't have that option ..

This isn't really intersecting with what I said? Don't know what you're talking about really.

 

[Bevans]

And Seattle would rather have McDonagh than Coleman anyways.

This entire thread aside. I'm not so sure about this. McD's contract is rough.

 

[majormajor]

This entire thread aside. I'm not so sure about this. McD's contract is rough.

I'm starting to figure that out.

I could see a trade here because I do think he'd be much more valuable to Seattle (or less negative) than in Tampa. It's just that Tampa would need to pay a lot more than the 2nd I initially floated.

 

[Bevans]

A) Coleman doesn't add or provide any relief regardless because his contract is done this season. He is counted as $0 at the end of the playoffs, with or without the expansion draft. If Seattle decides to sign Coleman, Tampa will just trade Killorn separately.

B) It still doesn't matter if they select Coleman by UFA signing. The only way it matters is if they promise to select Johnson, because that contract will require the most assets to move. If Seattle promises to select Johnson for assets (2nd, 3rd, prospect, etc...), then Tampa makes that deal. Not because the threat of Coleman leaving. He leaves either way. Tampa makes that deal because it gets Johnson off the books. If Seattle wants 1st + selecting Gourde/Killorn/Palat, it would cost significantly less to trade those players separately and we get to keep our 1sts plus prospects. Not really hard to understand that using any of our UFA's is not a threat. If anything it makes life for Tampa significantly easier because they can start working on trades sooner.

C) All the higher paid players on Tampa have NTC's. But barring something there, it still doesn't change the fact that teams would be lining up to get wingers like Killorn, Palat, and Gourde at discounted prices. McDonagh might be harder to move because of age, and length of contract. Teams like Edmonton, Toronto, Detroit, Columbus, Vancouver, St. Louis, Arizona, etc... would be love to have a winger like Palat. Killorn makes any playoff team better. Gourde makes any second to third line better and plays all forward positions. These aren't plugs, and there is a pretty good viable market for them, especially when they are discounted.

D) If you acknowledge it isn't hard, then why is it a power move by Seattle? It wouldn't change anything for Tampa then if the pieces they have to move isn't hard.

E) You don't want to go down the rabbit hole because the more you do, the more you're going to realize your idea isn't some power move and it really isn't a move that matters at all anyways.

The most reasonable situation is Brisebois approaches Francis and offers:

Killorn/Palat/Gourde + 2nd + 4th/prospect to select Johnson and get a 3rd or something in return.

If Francis isn't taking Johnson, then he can pick what's available to him to pick and not get extra assets or sign Coleman and Brisebois makes deals for those 3 forwards.

You're really getting into the weeds and going off track here.

All this boils down to in the end is that it's easier to deal with a team that HAS to take a player than a team that DOESN'T.

Seattle is currently the only team that HAS to. UNLESS they sign a Tampa FA.

Tampa either wants Seattle to maintain this obligation or they don't.

You think they don't and I disagree.

That's all it is in the end.