Salary Cap: Scheifele new contract

[KingBogo]

55 at 5.5 for 7 is a no-brainer for the jets.

It certainly would be for the Jets, but I don't think Mark and his agent would want to leave that much money on the table. If we want to do the cute thing we may be able to get 55 at 5.5 for 5. He may be willing use use up one of his UFA years at a discount, but I don't think he'd want to go through his whole prime at a discount. As of today Scheifele has proven to be a 30G, 60+ point #1C, and at age 23 is on a steep upward projection. And he is demonstrating to the world at the WHC how good he has become for those not yet aware.

We will have to pay a fair price to get Scheifele. My guess if we want to go on the low end it will be shorter term so he can hit UFA status in his prime to leverage his next contract. If we want to buy those years now we will have to pay at least close to what he will be able to demand on the open market then. If Scheifele never progressed past where he is now he easily gets $6-7 M on the open market. 5 years from now it may be much more if he continues his upward trajectory.

So let's say 5 X 5.5 = 27.5 and the 3 years X 7.5 = 22.5
Total: 8 years at $50 M for an AAV of $6.25

To me that is a very team friendly contract where Scheifele signs off on a reasonable number for everyone one of his most productive years. IMO if the Jets want a lower number it will be a bridge or maybe a middle ground 5-6 year deal.

 

[Huffer]

Dreger weighs in on potential Scheifele contract parameters

http://www.todaysslapshot.com/from-the-ice/dreger-weighs-potential-scheifele-contract-parameters/

I've got no problem with those numbers. In fact, I'd much rather get 8 years at 6.25 than 5 or 6 years at less AAV.

For me, a team should only go with these long deals (6+ years) in certain cases. Especially for the very long (8), you have to be really sure what you are "buying". With Mark, I don't think a team could be more sure of what they were getting. Attitude? Work Ethic? Teamwork? Progression? Check, Check, Check, Check, etc.

It's scenarios like this where I think a team can get themselves in good shape over the longer term. You go long with Scheifele and in a year or two he's likely performing at or slightly above his pay grade. With all the young talent coming up, taking the long view on a few guys can make a difference in being able to retain more of the talent (with their salaries and cap hits lowered by virtue of being amortized over a longer period).

 

[Puckatron 3000]

For me, a team should only go with these long deals (6+ years) in certain cases. Especially for the very long (8), you have to be really sure what you are "buying". With Mark, I don't think a team could be more sure of what they were getting. Attitude? Work Ethic? Teamwork? Progression? Check, Check, Check, Check, etc.

I agree.

Scheifs sure picked a great time to up his game. He's going to get paid.

Normally I'd be concerned about signing such a big contract on the back of a half season of stellar improvement. But I'm pretty convinced the Mark Scheifele we're seeing now is the real Mark Scheifele. And it's only going to get better as time goes on, for all the reasons you mentioned, Huffer.

Way back when we were debating the salary cap during the Ladd vs. Buff controversy, I made a very similar argument for signing Scheifele long term. Even before his late season heroics. Whereas it wouldn't totally surprise me to see Trouba bridged.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I've got no problem with those numbers. In fact, I'd much rather get 8 years at 6.25 than 5 or 6 years at less AAV.

For me, a team should only go with these long deals (6+ years) in certain cases. Especially for the very long (8), you have to be really sure what you are "buying". With Mark, I don't think a team could be more sure of what they were getting. Attitude? Work Ethic? Teamwork? Progression? Check, Check, Check, Check, etc.

It's scenarios like this where I think a team can get themselves in good shape over the longer term. You go long with Scheifele and in a year or two he's likely performing at or slightly above his pay grade. With all the young talent coming up, taking the long view on a few guys can make a difference in being able to retain more of the talent (with their salaries and cap hits lowered by virtue of being amortized over a longer period).

Yup. This has it all correct.

 

[scelaton]

I'm sure glad you guys aren't managing my money!
I would be stunned if the AAV of Scheifele's contract starts with the number 6. He is not a world class player like Barkov and deserves somewhat less AAV than him, even on a longer contract. Scheifele also sets the bar for Trouba, Ehlers, Connor and all the other young stars coming down the line.
If TNSE gave Scheifele $50M for 8 years the euphoria would last all of 5 minutes...until they realized that would spell the end of Trouba. It won't happen--they are too savvy for that.

 

[surixon]

I'm sure glad you guys aren't managing my money!
I would be stunned if the AAV of Scheifele's contract starts with the number 6. He is not a world class player like Barkov and deserves somewhat less AAV than him, even on a longer contract. Scheifele also sets the bar for Trouba, Ehlers, Connor and all the other young stars coming down the line.
If TNSE gave Scheifele $50M for 8 years the euphoria would last all of 5 minutes...until they realized that would spell the end of Trouba. It won't happen--they are too savvy for that.

An AAV of 6 million isn't world class player money though it's first line money which he will likely be worth.

Edit: A cap hit of $6.25 million would put him as the 19th highest centre.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm sure glad you guys aren't managing my money!
I would be stunned if the AAV of Scheifele's contract starts with the number 6. He is not a world class player like Barkov and deserves somewhat less AAV than him, even on a longer contract. Scheifele also sets the bar for Trouba, Ehlers, Connor and all the other young stars coming down the line.
If TNSE gave Scheifele $50M for 8 years the euphoria would last all of 5 minutes...until they realized that would spell the end of Trouba. It won't happen--they are too savvy for that.

I disagree it has that effect. Trouba has to take the contract he has earned the same as Scheifele does. If Trouba earns an AAV of 6xxx then he will get it. So far he has not.

Scheifele should get less than Barkov on a 6 year deal but 2 extra UFA years justify bumping it up to that 6-6.25 range.

 

[Whileee]

On the main board there's a poll around a 2012 "redraft", and it looks like Scheifele will beat out RNH for #4 overall (behind Gaudreau, Kucherov and Landeskog).

I actually think that Scheifele might end up a more high-impact player than any of those three, and could be the top pick from that draft.

He's out-polling Couturier for #4 22 to 1.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2080289

 

[scelaton]

An AAV of 6 million isn't world class player money though it's first line money which he will likely be worth.

Edit: A cap hit of $6.25 million would put him as the 19th highest centre.

And how many of those are 23 years old coming off their ELC?

http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/rankings/2016/cap-hit/center/

 

[Huffer]

I'm sure glad you guys aren't managing my money!
I would be stunned if the AAV of Scheifele's contract starts with the number 6. He is not a world class player like Barkov and deserves somewhat less AAV than him, even on a longer contract. Scheifele also sets the bar for Trouba, Ehlers, Connor and all the other young stars coming down the line.
If TNSE gave Scheifele $50M for 8 years the euphoria would last all of 5 minutes...until they realized that would spell the end of Trouba. It won't happen--they are too savvy for that.

I disagree that Scheifele isn't in the same class as Barkov. If he's behind him, for me it's pretty slight. Barkov is very good though, and with his age probably has higher upside. Anyway, I think that's a minor qwibble actually.

For me the big difference in a hypothetical 8 year deal for Mark at 6 or 6.25 and the 6 year 5.9 year deal for Barkov is UFA years.

Unless I'm mistaken, Barkov's deal buys 2 UFA years. A hypothetical 8 year deal for Mark would buy 4 UFA years (I believe). The additional 2 UFA years add considerable cost IMO, to the point that if Mark's contract was "only" 6 or 6.25, I would look at that as a discount on a RFA/UFA year perspective over Barkov's.

 

[surixon]

And how many of those are 23 years old coming off their ELC?

http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/rankings/2016/cap-hit/center/

I really don't see why that's important. I would rather be ahead of the curve and pay for expected performance than pay based on seniority/past performance which is what most on that list are paid for.

At 23 Scheifele is just about to enter his most productive years. I have no problem paying him market rate.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I'm sure glad you guys aren't managing my money!
I would be stunned if the AAV of Scheifele's contract starts with the number 6. He is not a world class player like Barkov and deserves somewhat less AAV than him, even on a longer contract. Scheifele also sets the bar for Trouba, Ehlers, Connor and all the other young stars coming down the line.
If TNSE gave Scheifele $50M for 8 years the euphoria would last all of 5 minutes...until they realized that would spell the end of Trouba. It won't happen--they are too savvy for that.

Barkov didn't sign for 8 years. It's unfair to compare AAV's of an 8 yr contract to the 6 yr Barkov deal. If he signs a 6 yr deal it will be very close to Barkov's IMO.

What is it that makes Barkov world class? His stats are so similar to Scheifele. Even in this tournament.

 

[surixon]

Barkov didn't sign for 8 years. It's unfair to compare AAV's of an 8 yr contract to the 6 yr Barkov deal. If he signs a 6 yr deal it will be very close to Barkov's IMO.

What is it that makes Barkov world class? His stats are so similar to Scheifele. Even in this tournament.

Yup they have a very similar all around impact on the game. The only thing is Barkov is a few years younger. Scheifele is not looking out of place next to a number of excellent forwards on team Canada. I personally think we overvalue some of the other players in the league because we don't see them as much. IMO Mark is one of the games best up and coming 2 way number 1 centres.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Yup they have a very similar all around impact on the game. The only thing is Barkov is a few years younger. Scheifele is not looking out of place next to a number of excellent forwards on team Canada. I personally think we overvalue some of the other players in the league because we don't see them as much. IMO Mark is one of the games best up and coming 2 way number 1 centres.

Barkov will always be younger. I don't think it impacts this contract at all. When these guys are ready for the next one (all things being equal) is where the age difference will show up IMO.

 

[scelaton]

Barkov didn't sign for 8 years. It's unfair to compare AAV's of an 8 yr contract to the 6 yr Barkov deal. If he signs a 6 yr deal it will be very close to Barkov's IMO.

What is it that makes Barkov world class? His stats are so similar to Scheifele. Even in this tournament.

I agree with you on most matters, Aavco, but not this one.
I don't know how much experience you have in dealing with large sums of money, but putting $50M at risk over 8 years in Scheif is a big, big risk. Leaving aside his comparables for a moment, TNSE will look at Scheif's history of at least 2 significant concussions and a knee injury that, while fully healed, resulted from a certain playing style. I wouldn't exactly call MS injury prone, but he is no Andrew Ladd. Mark's injury risk spread over 8 years and $50M is significant, so he would be getting himself a great insurance policy signing LT.
Then there is Barkov and the comparables. I only have a few minutes to write this, but suffice to say:
a)Barkov is very young and on an ascending trajectory, while Scheif is more likely to peak in the next year or two
b)Barkov has had better production at the same age for his entire career. Age vs production matters a lot. And this tournament, as you know, is a small sample.
c)The vast majority of non-Jet observers will rate Barkov as potentially world class and Scheifele as potentially #1C class

In summary--I like Scheif a lot but the benefits of a $50 M deal are mostly weighted in favour of the 23 yo RFA who has played half a season as a 1C...and the risks are mostly weighed toward TNSE.

It's a negotiation. There are two sides. Guess which side I am on? Am I alone?

 

[Aavco Cup]

I agree with you on most matters, Aavco, but not this one.
I don't know how much experience you have in dealing with large sums of money, but putting $50M at risk over 8 years in Scheif is a big, big risk. Leaving aside his comparables for a moment, TNSE will look at Scheif's history of at least 2 significant concussions and a knee injury that, while fully healed, resulted from a certain playing style. I wouldn't exactly call MS injury prone, but he is no Andrew Ladd. Mark's injury risk spread over 8 years and $50M is significant, so he would be getting himself a great insurance policy signing LT.
Then there is Barkov and the comparables. I only have a few minutes to write this, but suffice to say:
a)Barkov is very young and on an ascending trajectory, while Scheif is more likely to peak in the next year or two
b)Barkov has had better production at the same age for his entire career. Age vs production matters a lot. And this tournament, as you know, is a small sample.
c)The vast majority of non-Jet observers will rate Barkov as potentially world class and Scheifele as potentially #1C class

In summary--I like Scheif a lot but the benefits of a $50 M deal are mostly weighted in favour of the 23 yo RFA who has played half a season as a 1C...and the risks are mostly weighed toward TNSE.

It's a negotiation. There are two sides. Guess which side I am on? Am I alone?

The reason I said that age doesn't matter in this contract is because Barkov's deal was coming out of his ELC. 4 RFA years and 2 UFA years. Assuming Scheifele signs a 6 year deal it would cover 4 RFA years and 2 UFA years. That's the comparison. The expectation is they will be in their prime for the majority of the contract.

If you're giving him a 6 yr deal, extending it to 8 is not much different risk wise. A contract that large will be insured at 6 or 8 years.

Unless you think they should just bridge him? I think Trouba will be that path (bridge deal) and Scheif will be long term. I like splitting the risk that way.

Statistically Barkov is not world class at least not yet.

 

[scelaton]

The reason I said that age doesn't matter in this contract is because Barkov's deal was coming out of his ELC. 4 RFA years and 2 UFA years. Assuming Scheifele signs a 6 year deal it would cover 4 RFA years and 2 UFA years. That's the comparison. The expectation is they will be in their prime for the majority of the contract.

If you're giving him a 6 yr deal, extending it to 8 is not much different risk wise. A contract that large will be insured at 6 or 8 years.

Unless you think they should just bridge him? I think Trouba will be that path (bridge deal) and Scheif will be long term. I like splitting the risk that way.

Statistically Barkov is not world class at least not yet.

OK, how about a friendly bet? I'll bet Scheifele's AAV is < $6M and < Barkov's, whether it's 6, 7, or 8 years. We both agree he will sign long term this summer, it's just a matter of how long and how much.
If I lose, I'll take you to the game of your choice next season (vg lower bowl seats).
If you lose, you have to display a scelaton avatar for 20 games.
Deal?

 

[surixon]

I agree with you on most matters, Aavco, but not this one.
I don't know how much experience you have in dealing with large sums of money, but putting $50M at risk over 8 years in Scheif is a big, big risk. Leaving aside his comparables for a moment, TNSE will look at Scheif's history of at least 2 significant concussions and a knee injury that, while fully healed, resulted from a certain playing style. I wouldn't exactly call MS injury prone, but he is no Andrew Ladd. Mark's injury risk spread over 8 years and $50M is significant, so he would be getting himself a great insurance policy signing LT.
Then there is Barkov and the comparables. I only have a few minutes to write this, but suffice to say:
a)Barkov is very young and on an ascending trajectory, while Scheif is more likely to peak in the next year or two
b)Barkov has had better production at the same age for his entire career. Age vs production matters a lot. And this tournament, as you know, is a small sample.
c)The vast majority of non-Jet observers will rate Barkov as potentially world class and Scheifele as potentially #1C class

In summary--I like Scheif a lot but the benefits of a $50 M deal are mostly weighted in favour of the 23 yo RFA who has played half a season as a 1C...and the risks are mostly weighed toward TNSE.

It's a negotiation. There are two sides. Guess which side I am on? Am I alone?

I will start this off by saying all contracts are risky, especially long term deals. But in this business you need to take risks on young players to get long term contract advantages. Would you rather be Montreal or Arizona. Both teams had good young dmen in Subban and OEL. Arizona elected to take a risk and look OEL up long term at a pretty high amount whereas Montreal insisted that PK prove more on a bridge. The end result is PK needed to be overpaid substantially to stay after. I would rather be in the OEL situation myself.

With regards to your points:

If we are to take injury concerns into account, then wouldn't Florida have done the same with regards to Barkov? After all Barkov has never played more games in a season than Mark, infact Barkov has averaged 10 fewer games per season over the last 3 years. If anything Mark's superior durability is something that positively differentiates him from Alexandre.


With regards to trajectory, Mark has done nothing but improve since being drafted. I don't hold the fact that Mark wasn't as good a player when he was drafted as what Barkov was against him. The fact that he is performing at the same level as a number 2 overall speaks volumes to his growth. There is no guarantee that Barkov turns out to be the better player in the end.

Both players performed at an above average number one centre level last year so I am not sure why you are selling Scheifele short unless you want to see one more year of the same performance. But if that is the case with Mark, it should be the same case with Barkov.

In the end if you expect Scheifele is a 65 -70 point two-way number one centre over the next x amount of years than $6 million per year is likely an underpayment compared to his peers.

 

[SLAYER]

OK, how about a friendly bet? I'll bet Scheifele's AAV is < $6M and < Barkov's, whether it's 6, 7, or 8 years. We both agree he will sign long term this summer, it's just a matter of how long and how much.
If I lose, I'll take you to the game of your choice next season (vg lower bowl seats).
If you lose, you have to display a scelaton avatar for 20 games.
Deal?

Now that's what I call a bet.

If Chef signs for <6 /y at 6+ years then I will be thrilled.

 

[sully1410]

I'd be pretty happy with 8yrs at 6.25m. He's pretty much everything you would want in a young player.

 

[Aavco Cup]

OK, how about a friendly bet? I'll bet Scheifele's AAV is < $6M and < Barkov's, whether it's 6, 7, or 8 years. We both agree he will sign long term this summer, it's just a matter of how long and how much.
If I lose, I'll take you to the game of your choice next season (vg lower bowl seats).
If you lose, you have to display a scelaton avatar for 20 games.
Deal?

6 x $5.75M
8 x $6.25M

Those have been my predictions for a while.

 

[Channelcat]

On the main board there's a poll around a 2012 "redraft", and it looks like Scheifele will beat out RNH for #4 overall (behind Gaudreau, Kucherov and Landeskog).

I actually think that Scheifele might end up a more high-impact player than any of those three, and could be the top pick from that draft.

He's out-polling Couturier for #4 22 to 1.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2080289

Somewhat surprising.....especially when you consider those guys were all drafted in 2011

 

[truck]

Barkov will always be younger. I don't think it impacts this contract at all. When these guys are ready for the next one (all things being equal) is where the age difference will show up IMO.

Age factors into projection. Contracts are largely about projection.

 

[Jets4Life]

I'm sure glad you guys aren't managing my money!
I would be stunned if the AAV of Scheifele's contract starts with the number 6. He is not a world class player like Barkov and deserves somewhat less AAV than him, even on a longer contract. Scheifele also sets the bar for Trouba, Ehlers, Connor and all the other young stars coming down the line.
If TNSE gave Scheifele $50M for 8 years the euphoria would last all of 5 minutes...until they realized that would spell the end of Trouba. It won't happen--they are too savvy for that.

What do you suggest the Jets give Sheifele over an 8 year contract?

 

[Aavco Cup]

Age factors into projection. Contracts are largely about projection.

Sometimes contracts are about past performance. Especially UFA. They are not always about projection.