Player Discussion Sam Reinhart - Is he the real deal?

[Bendium]

I have a different view of Reinhart than some. I think he is a very good, very smart, very consistant player. I have had a career developing talented young managers, and some have an aggressive mentality and push themselves constantly to get better taking risks to do it. Some others take smaller but consistent steps feeling their way through their development instead of trying to take big leaps. I had a guy that seemed to move slow, talk slow, and never get off an even keel. Most didn't give him his due because of it, yet he outperformed them all because he had no wasted time or motion. I think people see Sam as a little low in energy/excitement/flash and they dismiss him little for it. I think he is still hitting his stride and continue to improve every year for at least.t a few more.

Some things I have noticed that I really like:

1. He really wants to be a Sabre and part of the teams future. He reached out to management last year and wanted to get more involved. He went to the draft to welcome players and has been taking on a greater leadership role.
2. He is finally filling into a mans body getting strong enough to be more physical and fend off the physicality better.
3. He goes in front of the net. How many of those do we have?
4. He gets his goal in a lot of different ways.
5. When the challenge increases he tends to rise to it. This is why he plays better in the second half when the play of the opposition goes up. How many of our players do that?
6. I thought Sam's best game this year was when Eichel was injured. He shifted from deferential support to driving the puck. He was all over skating hard and carrying the puck. He really needs to get away from Jack to get the most out of him. He needs to be challenged at this point.

He may not be the franchise #1 center we hoped for when drafting him, but you also cannot easily replace him through any reasonable trade or UFA signing.

8x8 Get it done.

 

[TheUltimateOiler]

He was drafted 2nd overall.
It's good he is producing now.

 

[Orange Fanta]

I have a different view of Reinhart than some. I think he is a very good, very smart, very consistant player. I have had a career developing talented young managers, and some have an aggressive mentality and push themselves constantly to get better taking risks to do it. Some others take smaller but consistent steps feeling their way through their development instead of trying to take big leaps. I had a guy that seemed to move slow, talk slow, and never get off an even keel. Most didn't give him his due because of it, yet he outperformed them all because he had no wasted time or motion. I think people see Sam as a little low in energy/excitement/flash and they dismiss him little for it. I think he is still hitting his stride and continue to improve every year for at least.t a few more.

Some things I have noticed that I really like:

1. He really wants to be a Sabre and part of the teams future. He reached out to management last year and wanted to get more involved. He went to the draft to welcome players and has been taking on a greater leadership role.
2. He is finally filling into a mans body getting strong enough to be more physical and fend off the physicality better.
3. He goes in front of the net. How many of those do we have?
4. He gets his goal in a lot of different ways.
5. When the challenge increases he tends to rise to it. This is why he plays better in the second half when the play of the opposition goes up. How many of our players do that?
6. I thought Sam's best game this year was when Eichel was injured. He shifted from deferential support to driving the puck. He was all over skating hard and carrying the puck. He really needs to get away from Jack to get the most out of him. He needs to be challenged at this point.

He may not be the franchise #1 center we hoped for when drafting him, but you also cannot easily replace him through any reasonable trade or UFA signing.

8x8 Get it done.

Spot on, he is capable of being a driver on his own line unfortunately we do not have the depth to support him same problem he had at center wasn't his play it was because he had sub-par wingers that couldn't help him. Very good player who i thought would take longer to develop because of physical ability but was always a smart player, while his iq is still his biggest asset, he has improved in every area and it shows when you watch him and as others pointed out his fancy stats he always has a positive impact for any line he's on and if you watch its no surprise because he does all the little things right that don't always show on his stat line in all 3 zones. He is going to age very well and i feel he is just starting to hit his stride and will keep improving every year. Keep him unless you get a trade that you can't refuse.

 

[Jim Bob]

Spot on, he is capable of being a driver on his own line unfortunately we do not have the depth to support him same problem he had at center wasn't his play it was because he had sub-par wingers that couldn't help him. Very good player who i thought would take longer to develop because of physical ability but was always a smart player, while his iq is still his biggest asset, he has improved in every area and it shows when you watch him and as others pointed out his fancy stats he always has a positive impact for any line he's on and if you watch its no surprise because he does all the little things right that don't always show on his stat line in all 3 zones. He is going to age very well and i feel he is just starting to hit his stride and will keep improving every year. Keep him unless you get a trade that you can't refuse.

The whole "drive his own line" thing is overrated, IMO.

The BPM line in Boston works and they did what they needed to in order to keep it together.

Marner worked well with Tavares last year and it wasn't held against him.

They need to retain Reinhart. Full stop.

Personally, I was scratching my head when Skinner started struggling and he wasn't put with Eichel and/or Reinhart. But, holding it against Reinhart that he wasn't taken away from Eichel this year is just an argument that gets made by people that don't like Reinhart because he doesn't shoot like Laine or skate like Larkin or have some skill that pops off the screen and gets people out of their seats.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Reinhart is this generation's Dave Andreychuk.

I just hope that Reinhart doesn't have to leave to lift the Cup.

 

[Snippit]

Spot on, he is capable of being a driver on his own line unfortunately we do not have the depth to support him same problem he had at center wasn't his play it was because he had sub-par wingers that couldn't help him. Very good player who i thought would take longer to develop because of physical ability but was always a smart player, while his iq is still his biggest asset, he has improved in every area and it shows when you watch him and as others pointed out his fancy stats he always has a positive impact for any line he's on and if you watch its no surprise because he does all the little things right that don't always show on his stat line in all 3 zones. He is going to age very well and i feel he is just starting to hit his stride and will keep improving every year. Keep him unless you get a trade that you can't refuse.

It’s the little things that have annoyed me most about him this year. A lot of small plays in the offensive zone, or rather misplays that cost us possession regularly.

Last few weeks he’s looked a lot better though. In a couple of them he’s been the best forward. But in most of the first half, decent stats masked what overall was very frustrating play from Sam.

What we have seen is the development of a pretty good shot, from a guy that basically never beat goalies from behind the face off circle before this year, he’s done it several times this season.

I agree there is no realistic way you trade him and end up a better team.

 

[Orange Fanta]

The whole "drive his own line" thing is overrated, IMO.

The BPM line in Boston works and they did what they needed to in order to keep it together.

Marner worked well with Tavares last year and it wasn't held against him.

They need to retain Reinhart. Full stop.

Personally, I was scratching my head when Skinner started struggling and he wasn't put with Eichel and/or Reinhart. But, holding it against Reinhart that he wasn't taken away from Eichel this year is just an argument that gets made by people that don't like Reinhart because he doesn't shoot like Laine or skate like Larkin or have some skill that pops off the screen and gets people out of their seats.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Reinhart is this generation's Dave Andreychuk.

I just hope that Reinhart doesn't have to leave to lift the Cup.

I don't think reinhart is bad with eichel i just think the team would perform better if he was paired with skinner, in fact its why we need more depth to be able to use reinhart better he's a versatile player who makes his line better he tilts the ice

 

[Orange Fanta]

It’s the little things that have annoyed me most about him this year. A lot of small plays in the offensive zone, or rather misplays that cost us possession regularly.

Last few weeks he’s looked a lot better though. In a couple of them he’s been the best forward. But in most of the first half, decent stats masked what overall was very frustrating play from Sam.

What we have seen is the development of a pretty good shot, from a guy that basically never beat goalies from behind the face off circle before this year, he’s done it several times this season.

I agree there is no realistic way you trade him and end up a better team.

I agree he's always usually not great in the first half of the season to date this year he ended up producing more but didn't look like the usual sam but has been returning to form now if we had a 2c and another top six forward i feel people would be less worried if we gave him 8×8 if only we could've locked him up right after his elc

 

[Icicle]

Are we making up fake contract offers now to justify our hatred for the GM? lol

Maybe Reinhart should just play better and leave the doubters nothing to bank on. Last I checked he gets ragged every GDT for being linked to the hip of Eichel and unable to do anything on his own

 

[Aladyyn]

Are we making up fake contract offers now to justify our hatred for the GM? lol

Maybe Reinhart should just play better and leave the doubters nothing to bank on. Last I checked he gets ragged every GDT for being linked to the hip of Eichel and unable to do anything on his own

By the same 5 people who will complain about him no matter what he does.

 

[debaser66]

Like I feel like some of you go back and watch Kootenay Ice highlights and go ya 8m+ a year easy. Hes not that guy, he was drafted to be that guy, but he’s not. Honestly he’s a bit of bust (where we was picked and expected to be) and had become a fringe first line winger. Good player, not 8m + year good.

Yakupov, poolparty and the likes are busts.
Sure you would pick Draisaitl or Pastrnak instead nowadays but other than that he has been progressing steadily ( the opposite of a bust)
It wasn't a good draft in terms of flashy franchise changing material except Draisaitl/Pastr.
I am glad they didnt draft I forgot his name who went 1st...
Or Benett, dal Colle....
Could be a lot worse

 

[explore]

Reinhart isn't close to a bust. He's a solid first-line RW, but he was drafted with the belief that he would develop into a Patrice Bergeron-type Center. That's not happening, and it's laughable today that that projection was once considered realistic, but he still brings a lot to the team and he's improved on his point totals every year that he's been in the league, and he may do it again this year.

I don't think he's worth $8 million a year. To me, that's Thomas Vanek-level of regret money, but I do think something between $6-$7 million a year is fair market value for what he brings to the team. I hope that Reinhart and the team can agree to a David Pastrnak/William Nylander six-year contract.

 

[debaser66]

This team has not many quality top6 players and Reinhart is one of them.
Botts made a wrong gamble by not locking him up cheap when he had the chance.
What you gonna do?
You probably won't get any players like him without spending a lot of assets.
There isn't even a player in the pipeline with sure top6 potential except maybe Cozens & he should not be rushed.
Do you want to waste another Eichel prime year by substracting him?
Honestly its hard to aquire players like him without drafting them (age/rfa/better every year) unless one GM makes a big mistake & I can't remember someone making a dumber move than or own GM.

 

[Snippit]

Just want to say I’ve been pleased with his play lately...I think since around ~35-40 game mark I noticed he was looking more like the guy from last year.

 

[Fezzy126]

Chad using some comparables around the league to conclude:

The fair value for him on a new deal to carry a cap hit between $6.7 to $7.1 million on a five-year deal.

 

[Aladyyn]

There's no reason why Reinhart would sign a long-term deal at "fair" value here.

 

[Jim Bob]

There's no reason why Reinhart would sign a long-term deal at "fair" value here.

 

[Sabretooth]

Chad using some comparables around the league to conclude:

"Looking at the data, the most comparable contract to Reinhart may be that of Florida Panthers forward Jonathan Huberdeau. He signed his contract back in 2016 at 23-years-old. Huberdeau agreed to a six-year deal that carried a cap hit of $5.9 million. At the time, that was a C.H.% of 8.08%. He was a high pick similar to Reinhart and scored at slightly lower points per game clip of 0.63.
If Reinhart was given a new contract with an 8.08% cap hit percentage on an $83 million salary cap that gives him an annual average value of $6.71 million. Taking into account some inflation and other comparable contracts recently signed you can begin to establish a window for Reinhart. The fair value for him on a new deal to carry a cap hit between $6.7 to $7.1 million on a five-year deal."

hmmm now where have I heard this before...

I think that's an almost best case scenario depending on term.

I think the absolute floor I could argue would be the Huberdeau contract (6 years 8.08%).

Hub: ELC with 1 slide year, followed by 2 year bridge @4.45%
Sam: ELC with 1 slide year, followed by 2 year bridge @4.59%

Production at same point in development is similar as well:

Contract year -2 (least year of ELC): 15-39-54 vs 25-25-50
Contract year -1 (first year of bridge): 20-39-59 vs 22-43-65
Here's where things deviate. Huberdeau extended in sept 2016, prior to the second year of his bridge, so the fact that he had a shortened "contract year" or has now broken out into a >ppg player in the 2nd and 3rd seasons of his 6 year extension don't matter.

If we wanted to lock sam in at close to huberdeau money Botts should have been immediately been throwing that contract at his agent before this season. Sam has edged above Huberdeau in production, and has this year to add to case. 8.o8 of today's cap is already $6.58M per for 6 years. He's better than Huberdeau when Huberdeau signed that contract ergo he's getting at least $7M per on a 6 year contract and that number likely only goes up if we want to lock him in longer.

 

[Fezzy126]

"Looking at the data, the most comparable contract to Reinhart may be that of Florida Panthers forward Jonathan Huberdeau. He signed his contract back in 2016 at 23-years-old. Huberdeau agreed to a six-year deal that carried a cap hit of $5.9 million. At the time, that was a C.H.% of 8.08%. He was a high pick similar to Reinhart and scored at slightly lower points per game clip of 0.63.
If Reinhart was given a new contract with an 8.08% cap hit percentage on an $83 million salary cap that gives him an annual average value of $6.71 million. Taking into account some inflation and other comparable contracts recently signed you can begin to establish a window for Reinhart. The fair value for him on a new deal to carry a cap hit between $6.7 to $7.1 million on a five-year deal."

hmmm now where have I heard this before...

Nice call.

I missed this perfectly logical post the first time around in the noise of hundreds of posts debating how good Sam really is

 

[FormerSabresFan]

I would be happy with that range for Reino.

Hope we get a new GM that can negotiate a good deal.

 

[BananaSquad]

There's no reason why Reinhart would sign a long-term deal at "fair" value here.

I feel like 6.7-7,1 is pretty damn high for a guy getting carried by Eichel. It’s great value for Reinhart.

 

[Zman5778]

Established value: ~$7M AAV. Says the fans and the numbers.

Sam's new contract, as negotiated by Botterill (against only himself, mind you): 7 years, $60M. Full NMC.

 

[Kublakhan]

no more than 6.5 for 7 or 8 years

 

[Chainshot]

no more than 6.5 for 7 or 8 years

At a possible $88M cap? NFW.

8-9% of cap at signing.

 

[Jame]

Chad using some comparables around the league to conclude:

its not a good idea to use a contract from 4 years ago regardless of accounting for % of cap.

4 years ago the cost of UFA seasons was significantly different than it is today.

a long term Reinhart deal buys significant UFA years that will be negotiated with today’s rates Front and center

 

[Bendium]

He will get 8x8 or 7.5x5 or 7x4.