Salary Cap: Salary Cap Summer Part 2 | The Hunt for 3C Continued

[Peat]

Federov was on disgustingly loaded teams. They could have won championships even with sub par performances from him.

If Malkin or Crosby faltered for more than a handful of games in any series, the Penguins would have been done.

I've said this before and I'll say it until I die: Not a single star in NHL history has done more with less than Sid and Geno.

I've gotta say, I'm very interested in how McDavid, Matthews, Eichel and the other faces of the next generation of the salary cap generation do. I think the arguments of who fits in where don't place much weight on the leveling effects of having to make do with makeweights due to the cap.

I wonder if we'll see teams do what we've stumbled upon doing and try to stockpile a lot of youth to break through later in big stars' contracts when their cap hits aren't quite so harmful. The next generation of big teams should certainly be a lot more reluctant to give picks away, ELCs are what lets it work.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

They thought he was a "core piece" that they needed in order to win.

Nah. SutterSutterSutter was a foundational piece with grit.

 

[Riptide]

If Dumoulin was willing to sign for $3 million, he would have signed by now. Those two guys (Sheary and Dumoulin) will be making a lot of money or something is up with the arbitration projections JR is making if he's only allocating $2 million for the 3rd line center like he said on 93.7.

Obviously he's not, because he's elected to go to arbitration and hasn't as of yet signed a contract. But every comparable we've found for him is in the 2.75-3m range with multiple years. Which means him at 1 year isn't going to be much - if any - higher.

Or he's banking on having space for Cullen, having around 600k-1.4m in cap room, and getting Dumo and Sheary for 7-7.4m, and that he doesn't want to shoot himself in the foot making a move for player A if the numbers come in a touch higher and he could have gone for player B without any moves to be cap compliant.

It's the summer, and there's some level of unknown there that could happen, so budgeting 2m when you probably have 3m or so is a hell of a lot smarter then budgeting 3.5m because that's what you think you'll have and finding out that those guy's numbers came in higher then expected and Cullen wants to come back and suddenly finding yourself over the cap.

Edit. Seriously, go play around with CF's armchair GM and you can look at the numbers yourself.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

I've gotta say, I'm very interested in how McDavid, Matthews, Eichel and the other faces of the next generation of the salary cap generation do. I think the arguments of who fits in where don't place much weight on the leveling effects of having to make do with makeweights due to the cap.

I wonder if we'll see teams do what we've stumbled upon doing and try to stockpile a lot of youth to break through later in big stars' contracts when their cap hits aren't quite so harmful. The next generation of big teams should certainly be a lot more reluctant to give picks away, ELCs are what lets it work.

I think we'll see a window being seen as two or three smaller windows. It won't be a continuous stretch of a decade where a team is expected to win the cup. Probably an increased value of picks, prospects and young players.

 

[rintinw]

They're not terrible, they're ok, but they both want the puck, leading to arguments as we've witnessed, and they both want to score goals, and I think being on Malkin's line has led to less scoring from Kessel. I liked him better as a player when he played with 2015-16 Bonino. Some times Geno and Kessel work to cross purposes

Are you sure about that? They seem to be pretty good together and I'm sure the stats would back that up.

It depends who was the third player there:
- Perron-Malkin-Kessel had abysmal numbers
- Kunitz/Wilson-Malkin-Kessel had ok numbers
- Hagelin/Rust-Malkin-Kessel had fantastic numbers

Truth is that Malkin doesn't work well with Hornqvist. They do have nice CF% but their GF% is mediocre and they are not exactly scoring much. Guentzel stays with Crosby. With that in mind there are not many line combinations that actually help Malkin. Unfourtunately Kessel is on most of those that do.

As for best fit for Malkin historically Jokinen may have pretty interesting case.

 

[Brandinho]

Suttertron.

I'm surprisingly OK with the Sutter talk - I just wish he brought more for his price tag. Why did Vancouver throw the kitchen sink at him?

Jim Benning has early onset dementia and thought he was getting one of the Sutters who weren't terrible at a bargain price.

 

[Jacob]

Malkin / Kessel can work I think, and last season may not be a good judge because Kessel was never really on top of his game.

It's true they both want the puck, but Kessel only wants the puck for extended periods off the rush. In the O zone he's usually in that Bret Hull mode where he's trying to find soft spots in coverage, and when it comes to him it's on his stick for a nano-second.

Gotta have the right fit on the left side though. Someone that can help Geno on the cycle and is reasonably skilled and intelligent enough to keep up with two supreme talents. Someone that can go to the net and draw traffic with him. Rust is perfect.

 

[66-30-33]

If Dumoulin was willing to sign for $3 million, he would have signed by now. Those two guys (Sheary and Dumoulin) will be making a lot of money or something is up with the arbitration projections JR is making if he's only allocating $2 million for the 3rd line center like he said on 93.7.

If Sheary wants to get paid because of 1 season then he can GTFO!

 

[Jacob]

I expect Sheary to get close to what Pageau got. Not identical circumstances but pretty comparable.

 

[mpp9]

I've felt all along that Duchene was a pipe dream unless A) his value is drastically lower than it probably should be, and B) Sakic and co. feel compelled to move him anyway despite that low value.

If acquired, though, he's basically a 2 year rental. If he plays LW in the top 6 he's going to put up insane points and price himself out of town. Conversely, if he's the 3C, he's going to sign elsewhere in 2 years rather than be 3rd fiddle behind Crosby & Malkin, regardless of how much individual and team success he experiences here.

The next two years are this team's prime window. So if it works out that he's a rental, I'm fine with that.

I don't think it's improbable that he'd re-sign. Kessel may be a contract we look to move at some point to re-sign the kids. And we have no one who projects as a high end 3C. I think if we're willing to pay him what he wants, a secondary role on a team looking to become a dynasty isn't something to be ashamed of.

Having him at age 30 when 87/71 are out of their primes is a nice thing too.

 

[Trade]

I think Sheary would be good on a 3rd line with Rust and if we could bring in a bigger 3C that can go hard to net with success that would make a good line. The centre in that scenario needs to be good on D but with those 2 as his wingers doesn't need to be a huge scorer. Someone who can play like Rowney but obviously be better overall.

Is there anyone like that who might be available?

Carl Soderberg @ 50% 2nd and Pouliot?

 

[mpp9]

Malkin / Kessel can work I think, and last season may not be a good judge because Kessel was never really on top of his game.

It's true they both want the puck, but Kessel only wants the puck for extended periods off the rush. In the O zone he's usually in that Bret Hull mode where he's trying to find soft spots in coverage, and when it comes to him it's on his stick for a nano-second.

Gotta have the right fit on the left side though. Someone that can help Geno on the cycle and is reasonably skilled and intelligent enough to keep up with two supreme talents. Someone that can go to the net and draw traffic with him. Rust is perfect.

This team is set up just about perfectly if Wilson could fill that role. He's smart enough. Just needs to get stronger. He could be that utility player we could retain longterm because he likely won't be on the PP or put up big totals.

 

[redsono93]

What would Sam Reinhardt cost us? I think he could be a lot cheaper 3C then Duchene.

 

[Riptide]

What would Sam Reinhardt cost us? I think he could be a lot cheaper 3C then Duchene.

Why? He was a top 3 pick... what reason does Buffalo have to trade him unless you're making it worth their while? I think at the very least it would cost Sprong.

 

[Penske]

It depends who was the third player there:
- Perron-Malkin-Kessel had abysmal numbers
- Kunitz/Wilson-Malkin-Kessel had ok numbers
- Hagelin/Rust-Malkin-Kessel had fantastic numbers

Truth is that Malkin doesn't work well with Hornqvist. They do have nice CF% but their GF% is mediocre and they are not exactly scoring much. Guentzel stays with Crosby. With that in mind there are not many line combinations that actually help Malkin. Unfourtunately Kessel is on most of those that do.

As for best fit for Malkin historically Jokinen may have pretty interesting case.

Thanks for that. Yeah I was assuming Hagelin was on the other wing.

With HMK and Jake/Horny with Sid we could have the 2 best lines in hockey. Our 3rd line would have Sheary/Rust so we'd be looking pretty awesome if healthy.

 

[Riptide]

As for best fit for Malkin historically Jokinen may have pretty interesting case.

You mean a skilled smart player who can shoot, pass, make plays with the puck, and doesn't need/want to hang onto the puck much? Shocking.

It's probably the same reason why Guentzel and Malkin seemed (in limited TOI) to work well. Because Guentzel can do many of the same things as JJ did, but doesn't need the puck the same way Kessel likes it.

I'd almost be tempted to play with this depending on who the #3C is (below). I know it's taboo to move Guentzel off Crosby's wing, but if Sheary and Malkin don't work (and I'm not sure we've seen enough of that to say either way - although stylistically you wonder), then it's certainly something I'd try at some point just to see how things go.

Sheary - Crosby - Hornqvist
Guentzel - Malkin - Rust
Hagelin - XXXXX - Kessel

 

[Penske]

You mean a skilled smart player who can shoot, pass, make plays with the puck, and doesn't need/want to hang onto the puck much? Shocking.

It's probably the same reason why Guentzel and Malkin seemed (in limited TOI) to work well. Because Guentzel can do many of the same things as JJ did, but doesn't need the puck the same way Kessel likes it.

I'd almost be tempted to play with this depending on who the #3C is (below). I know it's taboo to move Guentzel off Crosby's wing, but if Sheary and Malkin don't work (and I'm not sure we've seen enough of that to say either way - although stylistically you wonder), then it's certainly something I'd try at some point just to see how things go.

Sheary - Crosby - Hornqvist
Guentzel - Malkin - Rust
Hagelin - XXXXX - Kessel

Yeah that would maximise Sheary's production for sure because that lines always worked.

Guentzel seems like he'll be good no matter where he plays because he's a playmaker and can score. Jake and Rust bring a lot of the attributes that Hagelin and Kessel do.

You never can tell what Sully will do sometimes between games. Easy to tell during games because he likes to stick with what he starts with

 

[Andy99]

You mean a skilled smart player who can shoot, pass, make plays with the puck, and doesn't need/want to hang onto the puck much? Shocking.

It's probably the same reason why Guentzel and Malkin seemed (in limited TOI) to work well. Because Guentzel can do many of the same things as JJ did, but doesn't need the puck the same way Kessel likes it.

I'd almost be tempted to play with this depending on who the #3C is (below). I know it's taboo to move Guentzel off Crosby's wing, but if Sheary and Malkin don't work (and I'm not sure we've seen enough of that to say either way - although stylistically you wonder), then it's certainly something I'd try at some point just to see how things go.

Sheary - Crosby - Hornqvist
Guentzel - Malkin - Rust
Hagelin - XXXXX - Kessel

I love how all of our ideal line projections have Hornqvist with Sid. That is the best use of him. But that's not going to happen because Sid, and therefore Sully, doesn't want it to. So be prepared for Hornqvist with Malkin or the 3C, throwing all these lovely lines in the trash

 

[Penske]

I love how all of our ideal line projections have Hornqvist with Sid. That is the best use of him. But that's not going to happen because Sid, and therefore Sully, doesn't want it to. So be prepared for Hornqvist with Malkin or the 3C, throwing all these lovely lines in the trash

He went back to it when Sid and the kids were giving up a bunch of goals. You're right I don't expect it much during the season.

EDIT: With a full squad and no Kunitz I think we'd be pretty good no matter what.

 

[billybudd]

Federov was on disgustingly loaded teams. They could have won championships even with sub par performances from him.

If Malkin or Crosby faltered for more than a handful of games in any series, the Penguins would have been done.

I've said this before and I'll say it until I die: Not a single star in NHL history has done more with less than Sid and Geno.

Have to agree here. Can't imagine if you swapped the two that Federov would look better by comparison. Additionally, Malkin's lost less at 30 than Fedorov had by the same age. I remember thinking 91 was underachieving pretty bad a lot of nights compared to how he was when he was winning awards.

 

[Pengwins]

Malkin / Kessel can work I think, and last season may not be a good judge because Kessel was never really on top of his game.

of course Malkin / Kessel works, that was proven this past season

Kessel scored 70 points last season but was never on top of his game?

 

[PensPlz]

Hearing Sutter's name is deeply offensive. Mods, please.

 

[mpp9]

Have to agree here. Can't imagine if you swapped the two that Federov would look better by comparison. Additionally, Malkin's lost less at 30 than Fedorov had by the same age. I remember thinking 91 was underachieving pretty bad a lot of nights compared to how he was when he was winning awards.

He reminded me a lot more of Ron Francis than a dominant offensive player. Sid and Geno are closer to Jagr level IMO.

 

[mpp9]

of course Malkin / Kessel works, that was proven this past season

Kessel scored 70 points last season but was never on top of his game?

He didn't string together games like the postseason prior. And he was playing with the 3rd best center in the game.

Production is production though.

 

[Peat]

of course Malkin / Kessel works, that was proven this past season

Kessel scored 70 points last season but was never on top of his game?

I'd say that's true and I don't see any particular discrepancy in believing both of those things. God help this league if Kessel does get on top of his game.