Confirmed with Link: Ryan O'Reilly traded to STL for Tage Thompson, Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, 2019 1st, 2021 2nd

[enthusiast]

my enduring memory of ROR will be walking around my neighborhood at the right time to see him utterly brick like 4 shots in a row on his backyard court

my friend and i couldn't help but laugh to ourselves at the absurdity of a pro athlete being so bad, and lo and behold next week he had 8 foot bushes lining the court from the roadside

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Why is that clear to you? Here's how I see it:

One in hand vs. two in the bush

What evidence is there to think the trades got that much better after the Sabres shelled out $7.5 million? It could be the teams that would be interested in a post-bonus trade were fewer and may not have been offering anything more compelling.

I don't think trades were necessarily going to be better for Buffalo after the bonus, but Botterill certainly didn't have to budge that soon on a underwhelming return unless the bonus was actually a bigger issue for the front office. The Pegulas have wasted money on worse decisions than waiting out a better O'Reilly trade between July and October. I don't blame them for not wanting to "waste" 7.5 mil, but there have been less understandable scenarios of wasted salary than this trade. It wouldn't have gone down so late in the day unless it was an issue...I feel pretty confident all factors considered.

 

[Sabre Dance]

I don't think trades were necessarily going to be better for Buffalo after the bonus, but Botterill certainly didn't have to budge that soon on a underwhelming return unless the bonus was actually a bigger issue for the front office. The Pegulas have wasted money on worse decisions than waiting out a better O'Reilly trade between July and October. I don't blame them for not wanting to "waste" 7.5 mil, but there have been less understandable scenarios of wasted salary than this trade. It wouldn't have gone down so late in the day unless it was an issue...I feel pretty confident all factors considered.

It's amazing how similar the O'Reilly and Tyrod Taylor trades were. Many thought the Bills would get more if they paid the Taylor bonus. In both cases the Pegulas chose not to pay.

 

[valet]

I agree. Berglund's "dump value", is much more about his contract term (4 years) than anything else.

I expect Berglund to play top 6 LW minutes initially... and then we'll have two years of nearly 4 million dollar dead weight....

We are basically getting 4 years of 3.5-3.85 of deadweight.... the first two years will be Sobotka, and the next two years will be Berglund.

What do you think of sobotka getting 4th line minutes? I know he's not a world beater, but I don't see him failing in a roll as a 10-14 min a night energy guy, mentoring the young guys into the bottom six roles that they'll occupy as full time NHLers

I think we get a solid season out of him. After that it's anyone's guess as to how he'll perform

Berglund could be a candidate for a compliance buyout in 2020 during the Seattle expansion. I wonder who will get exposed

 

[Djp]

What do you think of sobotka getting 4th line minutes? I know he's not a world beater, but I don't see him failing in a roll as a 10-14 min a night energy guy, mentoring the young guys into the bottom six roles that they'll occupy as full time NHLers

I think we get a solid season out of him. After that it's anyone's guess as to how he'll perform

Berglund could be a candidate for a compliance buyout in 2020 during the Seattle expansion. I wonder who will get exposed

I see sobatja getting 3rd line to start the season.

If he does well and seems to have a bounce back year I’d trade him after the mid point at the % remains retained on the contract making him free to acquiring team.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

What do you think of sobotka getting 4th line minutes? I know he's not a world beater, but I don't see him failing in a roll as a 10-14 min a night energy guy, mentoring the young guys into the bottom six roles that they'll occupy as full time NHLers

I think we get a solid season out of him. After that it's anyone's guess as to how he'll perform

Berglund could be a candidate for a compliance buyout in 2020 during the Seattle expansion. I wonder who will get exposed

You are underestimating Berglund. I think he was brought here to play and play he will. He just turned 30 and probably has 3 good years left in him, which is the end of the 2020-2021 season and then we can deal with the last year of his contract in several ways (hes only owed 2.5 mil that season so maybe a bufget team takes him and a late pick on for future considerations or something like this)...

Anyone worried about that contract is way too paranoid for my taste.

 

[Icicle]

I see sobatja getting 3rd line to start the season.

If he does well and seems to have a bounce back year I’d trade him after the mid point at the % remains retained on the contract making him free to acquiring team.

Christ this team isn’t trying to tank anymore. Get out of this mindset.

 

[old kummelweck]

I don't think trades were necessarily going to be better for Buffalo after the bonus, but Botterill certainly didn't have to budge that soon on a underwhelming return unless the bonus was actually a bigger issue for the front office. The Pegulas have wasted money on worse decisions than waiting out a better O'Reilly trade between July and October. I don't blame them for not wanting to "waste" 7.5 mil, but there have been less understandable scenarios of wasted salary than this trade. It wouldn't have gone down so late in the day unless it was an issue...I feel pretty confident all factors considered.

The whole premise for this position is that the trade was bad for the Sabres. But Botterill got exactly what he was rumored to be asking PLUS some depth players that he would have had to find in UFA to build out depth. And if the bonus was such an issue, why did Botterill take the same salary back? The money was a wash, so that pretty much negates any theories that he was forced to do it at the deadline to save on the bonus.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

The whole premise for this position is that the trade was bad for the Sabres. But Botterill got exactly what he was rumored to be asking PLUS some depth players that he would have had to find in UFA to build out depth. And if the bonus was such an issue, why did Botterill take the same salary back? The money was a wash, so that pretty much negates any theories that he was forced to do it at the deadline to save on the bonus.

The money doesn't actually equal out though. ROR cost 7.5 mil for five more seasons...or 37.5 mil total. Berglund and Sobotka cost 7.35 mil for two seasons combined, and then just Berglund at 3.85 for two more seasons...or 22.4 mil total. If Botterill really got what he was looking for, than that's pretty disappointing. I hope that's not the case anyway, but I can agree to disagree.

 

[old kummelweck]

The money doesn't actually equal out though. ROR cost 7.5 mil for five more seasons...or 37.5 mil total. Berglund and Sobotka cost 7.35 mil for two seasons combined, and then just Berglund at 3.85 for two more seasons...or 22.4 mil total. If Botterill really got what he was looking for, than that's pretty disappointing. I hope that's not the case anyway, but I can agree to disagree.

That's the contract, which is a different issue. If you want to argue that Botterill was being forced to rid the Sabres of the contract, that's different than the deadline bonus argument, which is a wash.

And there is a wide range of opinion on the return.

 

[Aladyyn]

Another one.

 

[Dreakon13]

Maybe I missed part of the conversation, but is anyone really arguing that ROR isn't a great hockey player? Whether you agree with it or not, this was clearly a culture move. Botts basically said as much.

I don't think ROR is a cancer (and I think the people saying he was are just trying to get under the skin of certain pessimistic posters), in a better situation he's probably a happy go lucky guy who comes in, works hard and plays great... but he certainly seemed to be the odd man out when it came to the "culture" here amongst the top players in the room.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

If Berglund and Sobotka are cap dumps then I am gladly actively looking to add 2-3 more players like those 2. Berglund makes half of what RoR makes. And I guarantee that RoR will not double Berglunds production next year. In fact, I expect Berglund to put up 20g and 40-45 points. If anything he will produce about 60-75% of what RoR does. For less then 4 mil I'll gladly take that.

And people need to stop referring to these 2 as cap dumps. These are 2 quality players who instantly make our top 9 better. Sobotka and Berglund will get decent ice time and I expect 10-15 goals from Sobotka while being a good pest with some much needed grit with Kane gone and Berglund should be at or near 20 goals. We need more Berglunds and Sobotkas.


Or we can go back to playing a bunch of Jordan Nolans and Seth Griffith.


With RoR gone expect Eichel, Casey AND Sam to all have career seasons. Granted any type of production is a career year for Casey but in all seriousness Eichel will do the sheltering and Casey will feast against 2nd and 3rd pairings.

Eichel 85 or 90 points
Reinhart 55-60 points
Mittelstadt 50-55 points

And as long as we get double digit goals from Thompson, Sheary, Berglund, Sobotka, Okposo, Pommers and one of the Rasmus then I am confident this can at least be a .500 team. Even with Kane and RoR gone I am positive we have a much better offense this season.

 

[haseoke39]

If Berglund and Sobotka are cap dumps then I am gladly actively looking to add 2-3 more players like those 2. Berglund makes half of what RoR makes. And I guarantee that RoR will not double Berglunds production next year. In fact, I expect Berglund to put up 20g and 40-45 points. If anything he will produce about 60-75% of what RoR does. For less then 4 mil I'll gladly take that.

Actually, half of ROR's production would be a step up. over the last four years, 231 points for ROR, 102 for Berglund.

And people need to stop referring to these 2 as cap dumps. These are 2 quality players who instantly make our top 9 better. Sobotka and Berglund will get decent ice time and I expect 10-15 goals from Sobotka while being a good pest with some much needed grit with Kane gone and Berglund should be at or near 20 goals. We need more Berglunds and Sobotkas.

You can be a serviceable player and still be a cap dump.

Or we can go back to playing a bunch of Jordan Nolans and Seth Griffith.

With RoR gone expect Eichel, Casey AND Sam to all have career seasons.

Their production should be negatively affected, not positively.

Granted any type of production is a career year for Casey but in all seriousness Eichel will do the sheltering and Casey will feast against 2nd and 3rd pairings.

Eichel 85 or 90 points
Reinhart 55-60 points
Mittelstadt 50-55 points

Maybe Reinhart hits that if he keeps up his second half fire, but I'd shave 15 points off of Eichel, and Mittelstadt is a wild card, we don't even know if he'll have a role.

And as long as we get double digit goals from Thompson, Sheary, Berglund, Sobotka, Okposo, Pommers and one of the Rasmus then I am confident this can at least be a .500 team. Even with Kane and RoR gone I am positive we have a much better offense this season.

Thompson might not be in Buffalo, so either him or his competitors among Baptiste/Bailey/Olofsson etc. The rest have a good chance.

 

[Icicle]

Actually, half of ROR's production would be a step up. over the last four years, 231 points for ROR, 102 for Berglund.


You can be a serviceable player and still be a cap dump.



Their production should be negatively affected, not positively.


Maybe Reinhart hits that if he keeps up his second half fire, but I'd shave 15 points off of Eichel, and Mittelstadt is a wild card, we don't even know if he'll have a role.


Thompson might not be in Buffalo, so either him or his competitors among Baptiste/Bailey/Olofsson etc. The rest have a good chance.

Even strength goals, you know, those things that win games

ROR's points are going to tank not being in Eichel's free point bonanza power play for 4 minutes a night anymore.

In before people harp on ROR's linemate improvements-- while ignoring ROR was with Reinhart for almost all last season.

 

[Icicle]

Another one.

Crosby kid is such a chump

Model that factors in faceoff%, minutes played, and gives him 1/3 of his points from only taking 1 penalty, barely gets ROR on the stat sheet. Wooooooo. That 15.2 EV_GAR is really in good company in that grouping. It's only half the mean..

If anything, ROR proves the flaws in that metric.

 

[Aladyyn]

Crosby kid is such a chump

Model that factors in faceoff%, minutes played, and gives him 1/3 of his points from only taking 1 penalty, barely gets ROR on the stat sheet. Wooooooo. That 15.2 EV_GAR is really in good company in that grouping. It's only half the mean..

If anything, ROR proves the flaws in that metric.

Meaningless cherry picking. And you do understand that 5 penalties roughly equal a goal, right? Drawing and not taking penalties is as valuable as anything...

 

[Genny Screamer]

Meaningless cherry picking. And you do understand that 5 penalties roughly equal a goal, right? Drawing and not taking penalties is as valuable as anything...

Sometimes not taking a penalty leads to a goal...

 

[Zip15]

Even strength goals, you know, those things that win games

ROR's points are going to tank not being in Eichel's free point bonanza power play for 4 minutes a night anymore.

In before people harp on ROR's linemate improvements-- while ignoring ROR was with Reinhart for almost all last season.

First, ROR had 3.87 P1/60 on the PP last season. Jack had 2.23 P1/60. If you've concluded that ROR was riding Jack's coattails on the PP last year, you've come to the wrong conclusion.

Second, Sam's fantastic, but nobody can reasonably argue that being flanked by Schwartz and Tarasenko - which seems to be the plan, at least based on the STL board's lineup thread (though I don't see why they'd break up Schenn and Schwartz) - isn't a significant upgrade relative to what ROR played with in Buffalo.

 

[Fezzy126]

Meaningless cherry picking. And you do understand that 5 penalties roughly equal a goal, right? Drawing and not taking penalties is as valuable as anything...

The model is obviously flawed - Crosby has the ability to repeatedly spear dudes in the nuts without getting a penalty, that should count for bonus double points.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

First, ROR had 3.87 P1/60 on the PP last season. Jack had 2.23 P1/60. If you've concluded that ROR was riding Jack's coattails on the PP last year, you've come to the wrong conclusion.

Second, Sam's fantastic, but nobody can reasonably argue that being flanked by Schwartz and Tarasenko - which seems to be the plan, at least based on the STL board's lineup thread (though I don't see why they'd break up Schenn and Schwartz) - isn't a significant upgrade relative to what ROR played with in Buffalo.

Yup. There’s been so much effort to discredit O’Reilly based on one down year at ES, both sides have glossed over how crucial he’s remained to the PP.

Eichel’s shot still generally served as the catalyst, but O’Reilly’s playmaking had kept the unit chugging along with or without Jack.

 

[sabrebuild]

Even strength goals, you know, those things that win games

ROR's points are going to tank not being in Eichel's free point bonanza power play for 4 minutes a night anymore.

In before people harp on ROR's linemate improvements-- while ignoring ROR was with Reinhart for almost all last season.

Why would Ror’s numbers tank away from Eichel, when he had pretty similar career numbers here as in Colorado.

And I’m sure the drop off from Eichel to Tarasenko will be unbelievable....

There is no reason to make up nonsense.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Even strength goals, you know, those things that win games

ROR's points are going to tank not being in Eichel's free point bonanza power play for 4 minutes a night anymore.

In before people harp on ROR's linemate improvements-- while ignoring ROR was with Reinhart for almost all last season.

O’Reilly had a more significant impact on team and linemate actual and expected goals than Eichel.

The power play is better with O’Reilly on the ice than it is with Eichel, even through Eichel’s 36 missed games over the past two seasons.

O’Reilly played less than half his total ES minutes with Reinhart.

0/3.

 

[Fezzy126]

Yup. There’s been so much effort to discredit O’Reilly based on one down year at ES, both sides have glossed over how crucial he’s remained to the PP.

Eichel’s shot still generally served as the catalyst, but O’Reilly’s playmaking had kept the unit chugging along with or without Jack.

I agree that ROR's impact to the PP isn't being given enough attention. They didn't consistently incorporate movement on the PP, but when they did his ability to rotate with both Sam from high slot to net front, and with KO from high slot to right half wall gave many pk units fits. He was especially adept at finding open spots in the HD areas and giving Sam passing lanes to work with, as well as using quick snap shots with very limited time and space. It seemed like the "O'Relly practices" really emphasized these limited space stickhandling and shot skills.

Perhaps KO takes his high slot role and Mitts or Dahlin can handle the right half wall duties, but I expect even less movement on what was already one of the most stationary power plays in the league. I'm expecting a bit of a regression but I'm hoping either Mitts or Dahlin can surprise me and provide a boost.

 

[truthbluth]

Are we still litigating the topic of, "Ryan O'Reilly is a really good hockey player"? Really?
1: "RoR is good."
2: "No he's not, watch the games."
1: "I do watch, he's really good."
2: "No he isn't look at the stats."
1: "I did. They say he's really good."
2: "No. Look at other stats."
1: "Here's a whole bunch of different stats that say he's good."
2: [Brings up EV P/60] "Here's one stat that says he's bad."
1: "Last year's Sabres team was one of the worst ever teams at EV scoring, and the past 2 years were the worst EV P/60 of Ryan's career"
2: "Here's one stat that says he's bad."
1: "Are you serious? We just...we just addressed that."
2: "Here's one stat that says he's bad."
1: "Are you stroking out right now?"
2: "Here's one stat that says he's bad."
1: "..."
2: "One stat. One stat. One stat......."