Confirmed with Link: Ryan O'Reilly traded to STL for Tage Thompson, Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, 2019 1st, 2021 2nd

[jc17]

Are we still litigating the topic of, "Ryan O'Reilly is a really good hockey player"? Really?
1: "RoR is good."
2: "No he's not, watch the games."
1: "I do watch, he's really good."
2: "No he isn't look at the stats."
1: "I did. They say he's really good."
2: "No. Look at other stats."
1: "Here's a whole bunch of different stats that say he's good."
2: [Brings up EV P/60] "Here's one stat that says he's bad."
1: "Last year's Sabres team was one of the worst ever teams at EV scoring, and the past 2 years were the worst EV P/60 of Ryan's career"
2: "Here's one stat that says he's bad."
1: "Are you serious? We just...we just addressed that."
2: "Here's one stat that says he's bad."
1: "Are you stroking out right now?"
2: "Here's one stat that says he's bad."
1: "..."
2: "One stat. One stat. One stat......."

I know I did it once so I can't cast too many stones but I think we need to move beyond posting fake conversations to prove how stupid an argument is. If someone makes a dumb point or continues to repeat something, quote it. It takes more time but the oversimplification of people's arguments in posts like these don't add much to the conversation and isn't really fair.

 

[Aladyyn]

Are we still litigating the topic of, "Ryan O'Reilly is a really good hockey player"? Really?
1: "RoR is good."
2: "No he's not, watch the games."
1: "I do watch, he's really good."
2: "No he isn't look at the stats."
1: "I did. They say he's really good."
2: "No. Look at other stats."
1: "Here's a whole bunch of different stats that say he's good."
2: [Brings up EV P/60] "Here's one stat that says he's bad."
1: "Last year's Sabres team was one of the worst ever teams at EV scoring, and the past 2 years were the worst EV P/60 of Ryan's career"
2: "Here's one stat that says he's bad."
1: "Are you serious? We just...we just addressed that."
2: "Here's one stat that says he's bad."
1: "Are you stroking out right now?"
2: "Here's one stat that says he's bad."
1: "..."
2: "One stat. One stat. One stat......."

The funniest part is how those same people called P/60 bogus when it was held against Eichel. Or when someone brought up how Jack and Sam had identical 5on5 production over their first 2 seasons. Nope, only now did it start to actually matter.

 

[Fezzy126]

Are we still litigating the topic of, "Ryan O'Reilly is a really good hockey player"? Really?
1: "RoR is good."
2: "No he's not, watch the games."
1: "I do watch, he's really good."
2: "No he isn't look at the stats."
1: "I did. They say he's really good."
2: "No. Look at other stats."
1: "Here's a whole bunch of different stats that say he's good."
2: [Brings up EV P/60] "Here's one stat that says he's bad."
1: "Last year's Sabres team was one of the worst ever teams at EV scoring, and the past 2 years were the worst EV P/60 of Ryan's career"
2: "Here's one stat that says he's bad."
1: "Are you serious? We just...we just addressed that."
2: "Here's one stat that says he's bad."
1: "Are you stroking out right now?"
2: "Here's one stat that says he's bad."
1: "..."
2: "One stat. One stat. One stat......."

Is anyone saying he isn't a good hockey player?

I think the general debate seems to be whether or not it's possible to be a better team without him, and some posters are pointing to his ES production. But the evidence of his on ice impact far outweighs anything negative, so there hasn't been much of a debate there.

I hope this trade turns out well for the Sabres, but right now that hope is based strictly on blind adulterated fandom...

 

[Vito_81]

ROR did that with Nicholas ****ing Deslauriers.

I don’t want to get into the whole ROR debate as I know we’re going to miss him on the ice no doubt.

Buuuuut.

Deslauriers just had a career year away from ROR...

 

[Aladyyn]

I don’t want to get into the whole ROR debate as I know we’re going to miss him on the ice no doubt.

Buuuuut.

Deslauriers just had a career year away from ROR...

And Pominville was a good player in Minnesota.

 

[truthbluth]

I know I did it once so I can't cast too many stones but I think we need to move beyond posting fake conversations to prove how stupid an argument is. If someone makes a dumb point or continues to repeat something, quote it. It takes more time but the oversimplification of people's arguments in posts like these don't add much to the conversation and isn't really fair.

Fair enough. But it feels like banging your head against a wall. I was just trying to capture that experience.

 

[SabresFanNorthPortFL]

I can't help but think of ROR as if he was in Animal House.....

He was on the stairs during the toga party playing guitar....

"I gave my love a cherry...."

Eichel walks down the stairs, hears the music, looks down at ROR, grabs the guitar, breaks it into a million pieces, hands it back to him and says.....

"sorry...."

and walks away....



To me, that sums up the locker room....

 

[Aladyyn]

I can't help but think of ROR as if he was in Animal House.....

He was on the stairs during the toga party playing guitar....

"I gave my love a cherry...."

Eichel walks down the stairs, hears the music, looks down at ROR, grabs the guitar, breaks it into a million pieces, hands it back to him and says.....

"sorry...."

and walks away....



To me, that sums up the locker room....

So Eichel is Arnold J. Rimmer? We're doomed.

 

[brian_griffin]

If Berglund and Sobotka are cap dumps then I am gladly actively looking to add 2-3 more players like those 2. Berglund makes half of what RoR makes. And I guarantee that RoR will not double Berglunds production next year. In fact, I expect Berglund to put up 20g and 40-45 points. If anything he will produce about 60-75% of what RoR does. For less then 4 mil I'll gladly take that.

And people need to stop referring to these 2 as cap dumps. These are 2 quality players who instantly make our top 9 better. Sobotka and Berglund will get decent ice time and I expect 10-15 goals from Sobotka while being a good pest with some much needed grit with Kane gone and Berglund should be at or near 20 goals. We need more Berglunds and Sobotkas.


Or we can go back to playing a bunch of Jordan Nolans and Seth Griffith.


With RoR gone expect Eichel, Casey AND Sam to all have career seasons. Granted any type of production is a career year for Casey but in all seriousness Eichel will do the sheltering and Casey will feast against 2nd and 3rd pairings.

Eichel 85 or 90 points
Reinhart 55-60 points
Mittelstadt 50-55 points

And as long as we get double digit goals from Thompson, Sheary, Berglund, Sobotka, Okposo, Pommers and one of the Rasmus then I am confident this can at least be a .500 team. Even with Kane and RoR gone I am positive we have a much better offense this season.

There is Robert S. McNamara-victory-over-the-Viet-Cong-is-assured level of optimism in these views.

I can't help but think of ROR as if he was in Animal House.....

He was on the stairs during the toga party playing guitar....

"I gave my love a cherry...."

Eichel walks down the stairs, hears the music, looks down at ROR, grabs the guitar, breaks it into a million pieces, hands it back to him and says.....

"sorry...."

and walks away....



To me, that sums up the locker room....

ERod as Flounder. "Are you guys playing cards?"

 

[sabrebuild]

Is anyone saying he isn't a good hockey player?

I think the general debate seems to be whether or not it's possible to be a better team without him, and some posters are pointing to his ES production. But the evidence of his on ice impact far outweighs anything negative, so there hasn't been much of a debate there.

I hope this trade turns out well for the Sabres, but right now that hope is based strictly on blind adulterated fandom...

Amen

 

[joshjull]

First, ROR had 3.87 P1/60 on the PP last season. Jack had 2.23 P1/60. If you've concluded that ROR was riding Jack's coattails on the PP last year, you've come to the wrong conclusion.

Second, Sam's fantastic, but nobody can reasonably argue that being flanked by Schwartz and Tarasenko - which seems to be the plan, at least based on the STL board's lineup thread (though I don't see why they'd break up Schenn and Schwartz) - isn't a significant upgrade relative to what ROR played with in Buffalo.

He wasn't riding his coattails but he definately benefitted from other teams' PK strategies focusing on Jack. I don't think the P1/60 number means much on that front. Jack's impact is there with or without Jack himself producing by scoring goals. Which is all the P1/60 is really telling us. That Jack wasn't scoring like he did last year as evidenced by his 3 PP goals on 73 shots (4.11% sh%) which was big drop off from the 10 goals on 55 shots (18.18% sh%)

Both of them actually dropped off in p1/60 from 16-17 to 17-18. A direct result of the PP's struggles generally and Jack's struggles in particular. Jack dropping from 5.68 to 2.28 and ROR dropping from 5.27 to 3.87. Jack's struggles dragged ROR down with him.

 

[Kublakhan]

I wish ROR the best of luck, I think the trade wasn't that great but what is done is done..

 

[Aladyyn]

He wasn't riding his coattails but he definately benefitted from other teams' PK strategies focusing on Jack. I don't think the P1/60 number means much on that front. Jack's impact is there with or without Jack himself producing by scoring goals. Which is all the P1/60 is really telling us. That Jack wasn't scoring like he did last year as evidenced by his 3 PP goals on 73 shots (4.11% sh%) which was big drop off from the 10 goals on 55 shots (18.18% sh%)

Both of them actually dropped off in p1/60 from 16-17 to 17-18. A direct result of the PP's struggles generally and Jack's struggles in particular. Jack dropping from 5.68 to 2.28 and ROR dropping from 5.27 to 3.87. Jack's struggles dragged ROR down with him.

There were no Jack struggles. Just bad coaching.

 

[hizzoner]

There were no Jack struggles. Just bad coaching.

Exactly. He should have taught Jack that 5 or 6 shots (from the same spot he loves) in the same pp that miss the net is not a good thing. He should have taught Jack that gliding back to the bench after a long shift is not a good thing. Other than that give him some good wingers and leave him alone.

 

[EichHart]

Another one.

According to this the Wild should be a great team, yet they suck. Advanced stats in hockey are so relative and can be dissected in so many ways. As someone who has played the game for 2 decades, there are so many variables that go into every shift it's impossible to put it into a graph like this and expect it to be taken literally.

 

[Montag DP]

According to this the Wild should be a great team, yet they suck. Advanced stats in hockey are so relative and can be dissected in so many ways. As someone who has played the game for 2 decades, there are so many variables that go into every shift it's impossible to put it into a graph like this and expect it to be taken literally.

You can always find a stat to prove whatever opinion you already hold. I think this is especially true with advanced stats, just because there are so many of them that different ones are bound to tell conflicting stories.

 

[Aladyyn]

According to this the Wild should be a great team, yet they suck. Advanced stats in hockey are so relative and can be dissected in so many ways. As someone who has played the game for 2 decades, there are so many variables that go into every shift it's impossible to put it into a graph like this and expect it to be taken literally.

The Wild suck? Since when??

 

[sabrebuild]

The Wild suck? Since when??

Since they keep making the playoffs, over and over.

You just don’t get it.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Question. How does this compare to letting Miro Satan walk for nothing so Drury and Briere could take over leadership of the room? Common theme then was culture change.

 

[truthbluth]

Question. How does this compare to letting Miro Satan walk for nothing so Drury and Briere could take over leadership of the room? Common theme then was culture change.

That's a good point. Miro walking seemed horrible at the time. And with Zhitnik gone too, I remember feeling like the Sabres were at the beginning of a rebuild. Only time will tell. But there's also a pretty stark difference between a cherry picking sniper and an all situations, 200 ft center. But from the culture standpoint, it has a similar feel. What I want to know is, where is our f'ing Teppo Numminen? I mean, Enstrom is out there still.

 

[HolyGhost]

The only reason why I may or may not like this deal is based upon a strange feeling Tage Thompson could be a very good player

 

[Djp]

You can always find a stat to prove whatever opinion you already hold. I think this is especially true with advanced stats, just because there are so many of them that different ones are bound to tell conflicting stories.

I think the core of the problem is not having a deeper understanding of the stats.

A different example outside of sports....the 2008 market crash. People using the models didn’t understand their limits and you had a scenario that went outside the parameters set and they were unprepared because they didn’t understand the limits.

Hickey is a team game so individual stats have big limitations. You can have a line that develops chemistry and just clicks thus being better than the sum of its parts because you separate them apart they drop off a cliff.

ROR won’t be missed if team starts to win.

What baffles me is the team played well when Eichel was out for long stretches. When he came back you’d think the team would then improve further because you are adding a really good player.

 

[joshjull]

There were no Jack struggles. Just bad coaching.

Poor coaching decisions with the PP certainly played a role.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

There is Robert S. McNamara-victory-over-the-Viet-Cong-is-assured level of optimism in these views.

And why not? Buffalo Bills end a 17 year playoff drought. The Sabres won the lottery to draft the best D prospect since Denis Potvin. A guy who is a generational hof type talent. So yeah, I am starting to get a lot more optimistic lately. The Because Buffalo excuse has now been officially killed with the Bills playoff appearance and the miracle Dahlin victory.

The Sabres finished 8th worst, 6th worst and last place the 3 seasons ror was here. I would love to have ror....if he was my 18 minute a night 2C making $6 mil a season. Murray brought him in thinking he was this big vocal leader and mentor type captain figure and that wasnt him. For 7.5 mil he simply did not perform up to standards.

If you make 7.5 mil for the next half decade per season and you have never scored 30 goals, 40 assists or 65 points in a single season then you better have the 2 way game of Jere Lehtinen in the late 90s. And RoR did not have that plain and simple.

You can not be considered a first line player when you literally are the highest played forward in the entire NHL and have not scored 65 points. Like I said, I expect RoR to be closer to 50-55 points this season now that he will not get the ridiculous amount of ice time that he was given here. He will be on a real good team back in the physical speedy western conference getting most likely literally 4+ hours LESS of ice time this season.

And before we tar and feather Botts let's see where the 1st rounder is. Along with who Botts selects. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt shall we? Because at the end of the day did he or did he not select the best possible player at #8 this past season? Most draft pundits and even myself and a large contingent here wanted Vilardi at 8 when he dropped that far. Botts selected Mitts and he totally was a grand slam this season and made me a true believer in Botts ability to find talent.

When you factor in we saved a $7.5 mil roster bonus, 37.5 mil/7.5 aav over the next half a decade and returned 2 solid top 9 vets, s promising young player (recent first round pick who has improved each year since drafted making his value an accelerated 1st round pick) and a 1 and 2 for a guy who is nearing 30.

 

[EichHart]

Since they keep making the playoffs, over and over.

You just don’t get it.

Yet they don't go anywhere in the playoffs. They're not a good team at all. You just don't get it.