Eklund Rumor: Ryan O'Reilly+ for Noah Hanifin

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

[MOD] No way is O'Reilly getting Noah Hanifin heard rumors that Ronny Francis either wants an elite scorer or potential #1C for Noah Hanifin and O'Reilly is neither.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Hanifin isn't a Werenski or Provorov, and may never be, probably won't be. ROR is more than fair value for Hanifin.

ROR isn't anywhere close to what Francis is seeking for Noah Hanifin, It has been known that Francis wants either an Elite Scorer or future #1C for Hanifin and sorry ROR is neither.

 

[Sabresruletheschool]

[MOD] No way is O'Reilly getting Noah Hanifin heard rumors that Ronny Francis either wants an elite scorer or potential #1C for Noah Hanifin and O'Reilly is neither.

Partially false. O'Reilly may not be an "elite" goal scorer but is a #1 center.

 

[Jame]

ROR isn't anywhere close to what Francis is seeking for Noah Hanifin, It has been known that Francis wants either an Elite Scorer or future #1C for Hanifin and sorry ROR is neither.

ROR
Last 5 years (Min 5000 faceoffs) :
#4 in FO % (#1 Bergeron, #3 Toews, #13 Kopitar)
#1 in Takeaways (#4 Bergeron, #13 Toews, #22 Kopitar )
#9 in BS per Game (#5 Bergeron, #8 Kopitar, #32 Toews )

Last 5 years (Min 200 games)
#3 in TOI (#1 Kopitar, #8 Toews, #13 Bergeron)
#14 in Points (#9 Kopitar, #13 Bergeron, #12 Toews)
#21 in ES Points (#5 Kopitar, #7 Toews, #16 Bergeron)
#20 in Points per game (#10 Kopitar, #14 Toews, #17 Bergeron))
#12 in PP Goals (#9 Bergeron, #16 Kopitar, #29 Toews)
#17 in PP Points (#11 Kopitar, #21 Bergeron, #40 Toews)

Last 5 years (Min 200 games, Min 14 ES minutes per game)
#8 in SH TOI (#6 Bergeron, #7 Kopitar, #14 Toews)

I think it's pretty clear what class of player ROR belongs in.... the major different is that his peers are surrounded by Stanley Cup talent, while ROR has mostly been surrounded with crap.

 

[jfhabs]

ROR has no love in here. I think he's a 1C probably not top 10 or top 15 but I think he could be between 15-25. He's also 26... which still gives him a good 8 years of good hockey.

 

[RodTheBawd]

I think it's pretty clear what class of player ROR belongs in.... the major different is that his peers are surrounded by Stanley Cup talent, while ROR has mostly been surrounded with crap.

Ooh ooh, let me try this one, since we get this from other fanbases... Not being surrounded by Stanley Cup talent just means that ROR's numbers are inflated since there aren't other players capable of taking points from him. I think that's how their logic goes.

In all seriousness, and I think most Canes fans can agree, ROR is a really good player and a 1C (arguably in the bottom tier of 1C's, if we're splitting hairs), but not quite the fit we need if giving up one of our 2 or 3 best assets. People have a hard to comprehending that "best available" doesn't mean you have to make that move every time.

 

[Jame]

Ooh ooh, let me try this one, since we get this from other fanbases... Not being surrounded by Stanley Cup talent just means that ROR's numbers are inflated since there aren't other players capable of taking points from him. I think that's how their logic goes.

People actually say that? lol that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

In all seriousness, and I think most Canes fans can agree, ROR is a really good player and a 1C (arguably in the bottom tier of 1C's, if we're splitting hairs), but not quite the fit we need if giving up one of our 2 or 3 best assets. People have a hard to comprehending that "best available" doesn't mean you have to make that move every time.

I've heard all the Canes fans say something similar. It doesn't make sense to me. But i respect your poition. I wouldn't trade ROR for the two guys usually discussed (Hanifin is not proven enough yet. Faulk's contract expiration is a non starter). And if I were Carolina, Pesce-Slavin would be completely untouchable (amazing chemistry, amazing contracts).

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

People actually say that? lol that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

Yep, multiple times, whenever there's a discussion (in the past) about Skinner and more currently about Aho. Case in point to show what being on a team with talent does, look at Eric Staal after going to Minnesota.

I've heard all the Canes fans say something similar. It doesn't make sense to me. But i respect your poition. I wouldn't trade ROR for the two guys usually discussed (Hanifin is not proven enough yet. Faulk's contract expiration is a non starter). And if I were Carolina, Pesce-Slavin would be completely untouchable (amazing chemistry, amazing contracts).

Not all. I think ROR would be a great fit on Carolina, but don't think the Canes are in a position to give up what the Sabres would (rightfully) ask.

 

[RodTheBawd]

People actually say that? lol that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

"People" might be a generous description, mostly Leaf fans when discussing Aho vs. Nylander/Marner. Happens with Skinner as well.

I've heard all the Canes fans say something similar. It doesn't make sense to me. But i respect your poition. I wouldn't trade ROR for the two guys usually discussed (Hanifin is not proven enough yet. Faulk's contract expiration is a non starter). And if I were Carolina, Pesce-Slavin would be completely untouchable (amazing chemistry, amazing contracts).

Which is a fair stance to take. For me, I don't move Hanifin for ROR, but I move Faulk(+) for ROR in part because of his contract status.

 

[Jame]

Yep, multiple times, whenever there's a discussion (in the past) about Skinner and more currently about Aho. Case in point to show what being on a team with talent does, look at Eric Staal after going to Minnesota.

I don't know why i continue to find the idiocy around here so shocking

Not all. I think ROR would be a great fit on Carolina, but don't think the Canes are in a position to give up what the Sabres would (rightfully) ask.

I'm a strong No, on any ROR trade that is built around either futures (prospects, 1sts, etc) or quantity (top 6 forward + top 4 defensemen).

I'm only interested in a ROR trade that returns a bonafide, age comparable, top pair defensemen.

Dougie Hamilton is the bar.... if the offer isn't Dougie or better... I'm passing.

It's next to impossible to replace a ROR in the lineup. And unless you're the penguins featuring 2 Generational centers... the NHL has proven you NEED a ROR (Begerson, Kopitar, Toews.... Rod Brindamour) Who can do the heavy defensive lifting in the playoffs so your other lines can be successful in their matchups.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

It's next to impossible to replace a ROR in the lineup. And unless you're the penguins featuring 2 Generational centers... the NHL has proven you NEED a ROR (Begerson, Kopitar, Toews.... Rod Brindamour) Who can do the heavy defensive lifting in the playoffs so your other lines can be successful in their matchups.

And I think that's why you see some Canes fans saying he's not a great match. That's the description of Jordan Staal. Now, Staal isn't quite as good offensively, particularly on the PP, but he does exactly that. Takes on all the toughest matchups, plays the most PK time, drives possession no matter who he plays with, etc...does all the heavy lifting. I think some Canes fans see, "Why do we need ROR to do the heavy lifting when we have Staal that does the heavy lifting? Shouldn't we be going after someone who can excel offensively in their matchups instead?"

I get that sentiment, but I think ROR would be even more productive if he had someone like Staal taking on many of the tough assignments/free him up some and would be a good fit in Carolina. Plus, other teams couldn't get as favorable matchups on the road if Staal and ROR were on the ice 50% of the time.

 

[Jame]

And I think that's why you see some Canes fans saying he's not a great match. That's the description of Jordan Staal. Now, Staal isn't quite as good offensively, particularly on the PP, but he does exactly that. Takes on all the toughest matchups, plays the most PK time, drives possession no matter who he plays with, etc...does all the heavy lifting. I think some Canes fans see, "Why do we need ROR to do the heavy lifting when we have Staal that does the heavy lifting? Shouldn't we be going after someone who can excel offensively in their matchups instead?"

I get that sentiment, but I think ROR would be even more productive if he had someone like Staal taking on many of the tough assignments and would be a good fit in Carolina.

I agree. Staal fills the importance of the role, without the offensive side that elevates guys like ROR and the big names to top level 2 way centers.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I agree. Staal fills the importance of the role, without the offensive side that elevates guys like ROR and the big names to top level 2 way centers.

The last 3 seasons though, when both guys have been on bad, low scoring teams, surrounded by crap (A couple years ago, Staal's linemates were predominately Andre Nestrasil and Joakim Nordsrom ), Staal has a bit better 5v5 offensive production compared to ROR 5v5. It's the PP where ROR has been superior.

Here are there 5v5 numbers for this season and the prior 2:

	Staal G/60	Staal P/60	ROR G/60	ROR P/60
17/18	0.62	1.43	0.45	1.35
16/17	0.64	1.91	0.61	1.38
15/17	0.49	1.43	0.51	1.42

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Dreakon13]

Buffalo desperately needs young higher end D talent... and you have to pay to play. I dunno who adds or what, but I like the idea behind it. We'd really be banking on Eichel-Reinhart being our top 6 centers (and maybe Mittlestadt slipping in for Reinhart in a year or two if he doesn't pan out at center) which is risky at best.

[MOD]

 

[Jame]

The last 3 seasons though, when both guys have been on bad, low scoring teams, surrounded by crap (A couple years ago, Staal's linemates were predominately Andre Nestrasil and Joakim Nordsrom ), Staal has a bit better 5v5 offensive production compared to ROR 5v5. It's the PP where ROR has been superior.

Here are there 5v5 numbers for this season and the prior 2:

	Staal G/60	Staal P/60	ROR G/60	ROR P/60
17/18	0.62	1.43	0.45	1.35
16/17	0.64	1.91	0.61	1.38
15/17	0.49	1.43	0.51	1.42

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Not sure why we are eliminating the PP from "the offensive side".

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I dont think ROR is a number 1 Center... Hes a very good #2 tho... Problem is hes being paid like a number 1...

The contract is a problem.. Lets say a lockout happens... Very likely... He still gets 90 percent of his cash that season so i dunno if Carolinas owner has tons of money.. He likely does but be pretty tough to give him 90 percent of his salary when theres a possibility there is no season. I think a team with cash to spare is a team he'd be better off going too. Does Carolina make money? Cuz pretty tough to give someone 6 7 million if you arent gonna be making any that season. Hes untradable i think at this point due to the lockout possibility..

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Not sure why we are eliminating the PP from "the offensive side".

I'm not. I said he was clearly superior on the PP, just pointing out that Staal is a lot closer to ROR than people like to think. Even when you look at all situations, here are their averages over that same timeframe:

G/60: ROR 0.8; Staal 0.79
P/60: ROR 2.17; Staal 1.88 (which equates to about 7-8 extra assists / season).

There's not as big of a gap offensively as some like to portray and it's driven by the PP. I fully agree ROR is better offensively, just not to the level some like to portray.

 

[Jame]

I'm not. I said he was clearly superior on the PP, just pointing out that Staal is a lot closer to ROR than people like to think. Even when you look at all situations, here are their averages over that same timeframe:

G/60: ROR 0.8; Staal 0.79
P/60: ROR 2.17; Staal 1.88 (which equates to about 7-8 extra assists / season).

There's not as big of a gap offensively as some like to portray and it's driven by the PP. I fully admit ROR is better offensively, just not to the level some like to portray.

Are you using pts per 60 to narrow the gap on purpose? I'm not going to penalize ROR for the extra d zone start shifts and additional 2 minutes of difficult ES minutes he plays, by using Per60 numbers in this particular comparison.

Over that time period:
ROR 0.74 Pts per game
JStaal 0.60 Pts per game

 

[Canes]

Are you using pts per 60 to narrow the gap on purpose? I'm not going to penalize ROR for the extra d zone start shifts and additional 2 minutes of difficult ES minutes he plays, by using Per60 numbers in this particular comparison.

Over that time period:
ROR 0.74 Pts per game
JStaal 0.60 Pts per game

Welp, you've convinced us.

We'll add a 1st on top of Hanifin too.

 

[Jame]

I dont think ROR is a number 1 Center... Hes a very good #2 tho... Problem is hes being paid like a number 1...

But... he's not

Toews 10.5
Kopitar 10.0
Johansen 8.0

 

[Jame]

Welp, you've convinced us.

We'll add a 1st on top of Hanifin too.

I have no intention of convincing Carolina to trade. I don't want to trade ROR for Hanifin. You don't want to trade Hanifin for ROR.... we're all good on that front.

I do have an intention of getting the narrative on ROR correct

 

[Gabe Kupari]

But... he's not

Toews 10.5
Kopitar 10.0

Scheifele 6.125

And so many others who are paid less than ROR but cute how you take the 2 franchise players and use them as examples. No Mcdavid? Or Crosby?

 

[Jame]

Scheifele 6.125

And so many others who are paid less than ROR but cute how you take the 2 franchise players and use them as examples. No Mcdavid? Or Crosby?

Oh, you need a lesson on the difference between UFA and RFA costs?

Toews and Kopitar are directly comparable to ROR in both Role/Usage/Performance as well as having contracts that bought ALL UFA years.... now obviously Kopitar and Toews with the accolades, cups, post season resumes get significantly more, but that just goes to show that ROR is not overpaid.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Are you using pts per 60 to narrow the gap on purpose? I'm not going to penalize ROR for the extra d zone start shifts and additional 2 minutes of difficult ES minutes he plays, by using Per60 numbers in this particular comparison.

Over that time period:
ROR 0.74 Pts per game
JStaal 0.60 Pts per game

No, I'm just using P/60 because it's available on Natural Stat Trick which is the website I mainly use so don't need to do anything but grab the numbers.

Still, your point about penalizing ROR for more ES minutes doesn't hold water though. Their 5v5 PPG over that stretch is the same. It's the PP where ROR is superior, which is what I said earlier. Part of that is because ROR is better on the PP and part of it is because he gets an extra min/game on the PP.

I think we are splitting hairs though. I agree with you ROR is better offensively, primarily driven by PP.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Not sure why we are eliminating the PP from "the offensive side".

ROR has more PP points than Staal" and "ROR is better offensively than Staal" are two different things, no?

If the deal were ROR + cap dump for Rask + futures, futures being Bean or Fleury (1 or 2 d prospect) + one of Foegele, Wallmark or Zykov (2-4 forward prospect, Foegele has great wheels, Zykov, size), then I'd be down, but I doubt the Sabres are. Hanifin is a no-go at this point. Or ROR for Faulk + 2nd + McKweon