Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part VI

[Daximus]

When was the last time a player of Conner's age and caliber traded for a rental? It just doesn't happen, heck when was the last time a Roslovic or ves level young player/prospect traded at the deadline? Teams won't get those types of pieces. Two time Norris trophy winner Karlson didn't return that type of package.

Yeah I dont see it either. No one is getting high end prospects for a rental. Not Duchene, not Stone and likely not even Panarin.

 

[papasan]

Can someone tell me when Wheelers NTC comes into effect? I have read he has it already, then I read it starts on June/2019.

 

[Daximus]

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Very good post here --and so very true. I think GM's have a hard time separating emotion from logic. The GM's have had these players in their system for a long time, had first place clubs with them, and they don't look older to the GM because you don't notice someone aging as much if you know them, plus you had success with them.

Teams like the Ducks had Perry and Kessler in their system for a long time, and had success with these guys, 1st place finishes, Cup finals, and that appeals to the GM's -"false sense" of security. This is what enables these older guys to get big dollars $$

This could also be seen when Chevy was trying to sign Ladd for something like $ 6 mil over 5 years. I don't think Ladd was worth anymore than $ 4 mil, but Chevy was romanced by the fact that Ladd was the Captain, and the Jet's had some success with him. Chevy was very lucky that Ladd walked, as he's really finished. Also lucky that Stastny didn't sign, as he's to old and injury prone IMO.

The "moral of the story"-is separate emotions from intellect, and you'll likely be a lot more successful as a General manager in the NHL.

It's easier said than done though !!!

While I agree there is also a fine line to walk there as a GM. You don't want to signal to players that your team is a place where you shouldn't get comfortable as we will ship you out at the first sign of decline. And if you happen to be under payed by us during your best years, well to bad so sad because we are definitely not paying you for it and you will only ever earn what we want you are then worth when you are older.

That can signal to younger players that we are a team that is here only for ourselves and not for you. Especially when you age, get injured badly enough or decline. You look at place like Vancouver where they kept the Sedins because they wanted to stay no matter what until they retired and I imagine players appreciate that they have some sense of security and won't be thrown away or cast aside the moment they are to old, slow or injured.

 

[Daximus]

Can someone tell me when Wheelers NTC comes into effect? I have read he has it already, then I read it starts on June/2019.

Wheels has a modified NTC this year and a full no movement clause that kicks in on July 1st of this year.

 

[KingBogo]

I don't like a 3 year term. Not sure but I think he would then be arb eligible - and only 1 year from UFA. I will stick with my 2 years at a number between 6-7.

This slump will probably end with a bang, but until it does it provides plenty of room for skepticism. Jets need more proof before committing to 7-8 years at big money. And Laine needs the opportunity to get the big money. It works both ways. If he lives up to expectations, that 3rd contract will be in the 12 AAV range.

My thoughts are, with a 3 year term, you don't need to go to arbitration after 2 years and since you are under contract you are not subject to an offer sheet. In the summer after year 2 you can negotiate away without one of these 2 things hanging over your head. If you can't come to an agreement Laine retains full value since he is under contract for 1 more year at a really good price and he is still a RFA after that year so he can return max value if he won't sign. Play it the exact same way TB did with Kucherov. Yzerman was a step ahead of conventional thinking and other GM's would be best served learning from him.

 

[GNP]

While I agree there is also a fine line to walk there as a GM. You don't want to signal to players that your team is a place where you shouldn't get comfortable as we will ship you out at the first sign of decline. And if you happen to be under payed by us during your best years, well to bad so sad because we are definitely not paying you for it and you will only ever earn what we want you are then worth when you are older.

That can signal to younger players that we are a team that is here only for ourselves and not for you. Especially when you age, get injured badly enough or decline. You look at place like Vancouver where they kept the Sedins because they wanted to stay no matter what until they retired and I imagine players appreciate that they have some sense of security and won't be thrown away or cast aside the moment they are to old, slow or injured.

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Well -- I think you said it best Dax -- "it's a very fine line to walk" - have to be very careful. I think the Canucks went to long with the Sedins and suffered for it.

 

[Daximus]

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Well -- I think you said it best Dax -- "it's a very fine line to walk" - have to be very careful. I think the Canucks went to long with the Sedins and suffered for it.

I agree but it sent a signal to the rest of their players that if you put in the time and work on this team you will be taken care off. The Sedins didn't want to have to uproot and leave their families. It's understandable for any of us. In the end athletes are people too.

 

[Daximus]

My thoughts are, with a 3 year term, you don't need to go to arbitration after 2 years and since you are under contract you are not subject to an offer sheet. In the summer after year 2 you can negotiate away without one of these 2 things hanging over your head. If you can't come to an agreement Laine retains full value since he is under contract for 1 more year at a really good price and he is still a RFA after that year so he can return max value if he won't sign. Play it the exact same way TB did with Kucherov. Yzerman was a step ahead of conventional thinking and other GM's would be best served learning from him.

You also have Kucherov coming out and saying it was the worst thing he's ever done signing that bridge. So you have to think players might have taken some notes there too. Guys are getting less and less scared of holding out now.

 

[KingBogo]

You also have Kucherov coming out and saying it was the worst thing he's ever done signing that bridge. So you have to think players might have taken some notes there too. Guys are getting less and less scared of holding out now.

Well minus that part But we just can't pay Laine like he is already a 60+ goal scorer IMO, so something has to give. We either bridge him or he signs long term at the value he has earned.

 

[KingBogo]

Can someone tell me when Wheelers NTC comes into effect? I have read he has it already, then I read it starts on June/2019.

Modified NTC this season and then a NMC starting July 1st. Just go to CapFriendly and click clauses on the team you want to look at.

 

[GNP]

Well minus that part But we just can't pay Laine like he is already a 60+ goal scorer IMO, so something has to give. We either bridge him or he signs long term at the value he has earned.

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I really like your idea of the 3 year bridge for Laine Bogo -- it's just to risky to sign him to a big dollar contract over long term, with the way he's playing right now. The only way I can see the Jet's doing this --is compromising, and going less $$ on a long term deal, as was done with Scheifele.( bit of a gamble) With Schiefele, it worked out great. Both parties interests have to be satisfied though.

 

[ecolad]

The problem is that we can't go and see the results if things had been done differently. We can only speculate. We can see rentals who simply did not contribute though, and there are quite a few of them. There are examples of teams that added and won and teams that added and did not win. There are far more of the latter. There are also examples of teams that did not add and won and teams that did not add and did not win. Again, far more of the latter.

Caps last year did not add. They were not the best team in the league last year either, IMO. They were not even the best Caps team of the last 10 years. But they have been in contention, to varying degrees for most of the last 10 years, and even beyond that. Things finally lined up for them.

I think Duchene is determined to price himself out of our reach. However, he might sign for a number close to what has been thrown around for Stone. The difference is that rumour about Stone wanting to come here. That is really when the Stone talk heated up.

I thought I had seen him quoted as being interested in staying in Ottawa - if they would pay him.

Lot of 'ifs'. I would prefer to keep building a team of players with some term. **** the rentals.

I`d like to believe that really solid GM`s purposefully and methodically build a team that they feel is truly ready to win it all, and then maybe consider a rental acquisition for depth support to support a final push. A high priced key piece would be acquired as a rental only in the most unanticipated circumstances where there was a last minute market pricing breakdown close to, or at, the trade deadline.

The Jets are a highly competitive team that could go deep into the playoffs with a lot of things going right, BUT I hope most posters would agree that their basic build is not yet complete. Doesn`t anyone feel just a little uncomfortable that we sit here, just a few months from the start of playoffs . unable to identify what our probable starting lineup will look like , with a top line that is clearly struggling and a second line that is unquestionably not performing . So take the time to sort out the root problems and then finish the build through FA and/or real trades this off-season. Oh yeah, and **** the rentals at this stage.

 

[KingBogo]

I would love to see it. Laine/Little are the only two pairs never broken up regardless of how they play and compliment each other. I don't get it.

My take is Maurice is looking for a defensively conscious "babysitter" for Laine and it is either Little or Lowry. Lowry's line usually plays a pretty defined shutdown role which is not a great fit for Laine. Maybe you try Copp as his center?

 

[KingBogo]

Agree. Nashville, Calgary, San Jose, Vegas, TBL, Toronto, Winnipeg....all juggernauts. One team adding Duchene is not going to make a difference. Getting through four rounds against that type of competition is going to be decided by a bounce here or there; the rub of the green. What we need to do is make sure, we are in that 5-6 team conversation throughout the remainder of Scheifele's and Morrissey's contracts. Rentals is not the way to do that. I get that we tried it once; had a chance at resigning a guy. I'd rather give up the additional asset to have Stone extended, or look at Hampus Lindholm or Colton Parayko, rather than give up assets for a 1% increase in our odds.

What pending UFA's extend as a rental? If you have gone this far to Free Agency you chase the cup to where you are dealt and then field offers in the week running up to July 1st and the sign on national overpay day. None of Stone, Duchene or Panarin are going anywhere with an extension.

 

[KingBogo]

If that's what it comes down to I'd rather look at what happens with Laine this offseason. No doubt even if he has a down year his value will be highers than Connors. Connor and Ehlers could be pivotal LW's for us while Wheeler and Stone round out the RW side. I'm not convinced in any way shape or form that Laine is a LW yet. Carolina might even give us something like Svech and Pesce for him. Which would be more than ideal.

This makes a ton of sense to me, and takes a lot of risk out of giving superstar money long term to a player who may never get there.

 

[Daximus]

This makes a ton of sense to me, and takes a lot of risk out of giving superstar money long term to a player who may never get there.

Fine line to walk there as well but makes more sense then moving Connor who is likely going to be making less and doing more right now.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Goal scorers get paid... Hes on pace for 40 and is in a slump..

Why would u bridge him? That's just dumb and will cost you more down the line.. Despite the narrative here... Hes playing ok.. Aswell as Scheif and Wheeler and the other top 6 really.

 

[KingBogo]

Goal scorers get paid... Hes on pace for 40 and is in a slump..

Why would u bridge him? That's just dumb and will cost you more down the line.. Despite the narrative here... Hes playing ok.. Aswell as Scheif and Wheeler and the other top 6 really.

He hasn't played anywhere near as well as any of the other players in our top 6. Paying him like McDavid or Matthews is what would be "dumb", especially if it costs you another top young player you can no longer afford to sign.

 

[KingBogo]

Fine line to walk there as well but makes more sense then moving Connor who is likely going to be making less and doing more right now.

IMO moving Connor would turn out to be one of the biggest mistakes this organization would ever do. The guy will be a perennial 35-45 goal scorer and do everything else right.

 

[BigZ65]

Goal scorers get paid... Hes on pace for 40 and is in a slump..

Why would u bridge him? That's just dumb and will cost you more down the line.. Despite the narrative here... Hes playing ok.. Aswell as Scheif and Wheeler and the other top 6 really.

If you replaced him with Petan or any replacement level player for the last 20 games you wouldn't have even noticed in the boxscore or standings, other than maybe our GA being a few lower.

That's pretty bad for a guy who is asking for $10 million.

 

[Daximus]

IMO moving Connor would turn out to be one of the biggest mistakes this organization would ever do. The guy will be a perennial 35-45 goal scorer and do everything else right.

I agree. We seem to be in the minority on that one though.

 

[Gil Fisher]

What pending UFA's extend as a rental? If you have gone this far to Free Agency you chase the cup to where you are dealt and then field offers in the week running up to July 1st and the sign on national overpay day. None of Stone, Duchene or Panarin are going anywhere with an extension.

Didn't Buff sign around this time of year?

 

[bustamente]

I agree. We seem to be in the minority on that one though.

Nope right here with you, I don't get the infatuation of trying to trade young players with so much potential and I'm including Laine, Ehlers and Roslovic, yes signing all of them may become a challenge if they all pan out but at least let's get there.

 

[KingBogo]

Didn't Buff sign around this time of year?

With the team he played for not traded as a rental. What rental signs without getting a feel for the landscape and seeing what the open market has to offer first?

 

[Daximus]

With the team he played for not traded as a rental. What rental signs without getting a feel for the landscape and seeing what the open market has to offer first?

Yeah I doubt any rental is doing a trade and sign without knowing what they are getting into and testing the market. Has anyone ever done that?