Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part VI

[Daximus]

50% of HRR is still 50% of HRR. The system is self regulating. Give more to the young players and the older ones get less. That will bother the older NHLPA members but it doesn't affect teams, because ... 50%.

Teams will love having extra years of ELC. How can you not?

 

[Pongs21]

Wouldn't the logical sense be to go after a C in FA or sign the 2C we presumably get at the deadline if possible? Our issue isnt on the wings, so why are we shuffling deck chairs to only be in the exact same spot again next deadline looking to ship out assets for a 2 C? Stones great, but id rather KC if his AAV will be smaller than Stones. Recoup assets at the deadline for Trouba, look at all options available before even considering shipping off Ehlers or KC.

 

[Daximus]

Wouldn't the logical sense be to go after a C in FA or sign the 2C we presumably get at the deadline if possible? Our issue isnt on the wings, so why are we shuffling deck chairs to only be in the exact same spot again next deadline looking to ship out assets for a 2 C? Stones great, but id rather KC if his AAV will be smaller than Stones. Recoup assets at the deadline for Trouba, look at all options available before even considering shipping off Ehlers or KC.

That's how I see it. Stone for Connor closes our window IMO. It's a lateral move that loses us yardage. We're still close to a touchdown but not as close as we could have been. I'm bad at analogies but I agree.
Duchene fits a need and gives us depth. Sign him if you are itching to sign someone. Might even come cheaper than Stone.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

LETS WIN A CUP! The West is so weak now. Nashville and Calgary are the only teams I am worried about.

I'm all in favour of winning a cup. But we can't guarantee that we will win. We can't even come close to guaranteeing we will win. The most we can do is boost our chances by a few points. And we can guarantee closing our window in the process.

The closest we can come to guaranteeing a cup is to contend as many times as possible. This is only our 2nd year of contending. If we can do that 5 more times, we have a pretty good chance of actually doing it once.

 

[Daximus]

I'm all in favour of winning a cup. But we can't guarantee that we will win. We can't even come close to guaranteeing we will win. The most we can do is boost our chances by a few points. And we can guarantee closing our window in the process.

The closest we can come to guaranteeing a cup is to contend as many times as possible. This is only our 2nd year of contending. If we can do that 5 more times, we have a pretty good chance of actually doing it once.

The only way we close our window is if we ship off major parts to get Duchene. Other then maybe Vesalainen, Niku and Samberg I don't think anyone else really opens our window much more than guys we could acquire by other means. If we can get away with a 1st, Stanley, Petan and other quantity over quality assets I'd do it in a heartbeat and lose zero sleep over it. Look at signing Duchene if he fits well and see what happens with Trouba.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Teams will love having extra years of ELC. How can you not?

Didn't say they wouldn't love that. It would be a helluva fight. Definitely not worth it, considering there is no net gain.

Every lockout to date has been about reducing the players total share of the pot. I don't think they are going to try to go below 50/50 though. That is the only thing worth interrupting the season for.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The only way we close our window is if we ship off major parts to get Duchene. Other then maybe Vesalainen, Niku and Samberg I don't think anyone else really opens our window much more than guys we could acquire by other means. If we can get away with a 1st, Stanley, Petan and other quantity over quality assets I'd do it in a heartbeat and lose zero sleep over it. Look at signing Duchene if he fits well and see what happens with Trouba.

Yeah, I know you would. You have no idea how deeply I dislike rentals. It is at least as wrong headed as drafting for size despite a lack of talent.

Edit: We have already shortened our window by a bit.

 

[GNP]

That's how I see it. Stone for Connor closes our window IMO. It's a lateral move that loses us yardage. We're still close to a touchdown but not as close as we could have been. I'm bad at analogies but I agree.
Duchene fits a need and gives us depth. Sign him if you are itching to sign someone. Might even come cheaper than Stone.

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If the Jets sign Duchene --they should do so "after the cold snap is over." That way when he gets here, he'll think to himself--"it's really not that cold here."

 

[Daximus]

Yeah, I know you would. You have no idea how deeply I dislike rentals. It is at least as wrong headed as drafting for size despite a lack of talent.

I disagree there are teams who have acquired rentals and won it all and teams who have stood pat and won it all. The teams that have made adds have won a lot more. Now there is something to be said about getting rentals that are one and done. But if Duchene shows chemistry with Laine, which I think he will. Then we will assuredly look at the cost and feasibility of a re-sign. There are a lot of moving parts but if Duchene finds a winger he gels with and gets far, maybe even winning a Cup. He might find there is no better place then here to be. Doesn't seem like the purely money type. He wanted out of Colorado because they just were't good enough and based on his comments hasn't even given a thought to re-signing in Ottawa. The guy wants to win.

 

[Daximus]

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If the Jets sign Duchene --they should do so "after the cold snap is over." That way when he gets here, he'll think to himself--"it's really not that cold here."

haha he's from Haliburton, Ontario the land of freezing rain. I'm sure he will be just fine with the dry cold of Winnipeg.

 

[DRW204]

I disagree there are teams who have acquired rentals and won it all and teams who have stood pat and won it all. The teams that have made adds have won a lot more. Now there is something to be said about getting rentals that are one and done. But if Duchene shows chemistry with Laine, which I think he will. Then we will assuredly look at the cost and feasibility of a re-sign. There are a lot of moving parts but if Duchene finds a winger he gels with and gets far, maybe even winning a Cup. He might find there is no better place then here to be. Doesn't seem like the purely money type. He wanted out of Colorado because they just were't good enough and based on his comments hasn't even given a thought to re-signing in Ottawa. The guy wants to win.

So what's your proposal for a Duchene, extension and non?

 

[Whileee]

Can't see the vets being happy about that.

I'm sure they won't be, but teams keep on getting killed with big deals to older version like Perry, Kesler, Seabrook, etc. Better to spend big on players through their younger prime, but vets would definitely suffer.

 

[Daximus]

So what's your proposal for a Duchene, extension and non?

Hard to say about an extension offer.

None extension offer starts at 2019 1st, Stanley, Petan.
I'd go as high as offering more filler guys like Spacek, Harkins if need be.

I'd imagine the Sens would like to recoup at least one more 1st based on us re-signing him.

 

[Whileee]

That's how I see it. Stone for Connor closes our window IMO. It's a lateral move that loses us yardage. We're still close to a touchdown but not as close as we could have been. I'm bad at analogies but I agree.
Duchene fits a need and gives us depth. Sign him if you are itching to sign someone. Might even come cheaper than Stone.

Stone for free as a UFA and then trading Connor for futures, or for a D and then trade Trouba for futures actually expands the Jets window, while preserving the current window. I think that if you can snag a top UFA for no assets then you have to consider it. "Money for nothing..."

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Thanks.

What do we make of this?

View attachment 183509

What's a "shot assist"?

 

[Whileee]

Hard to say about an extension offer.

None extension offer starts at 2019 1st, Stanley, Petan.
I'd go as high as offering more filler guys like Spacek, Harkins if need be.

I'd imagine the Sens would like to recoup at least one more 1st based on us re-signing him.

I think Duchene will cost more than that. One of the Jets top prospects like Vesalainen or Niku or Samberg would likely be on the list. I'd be reluctant to part with any of them at this point, but I think that's going to be the cost. I'd bet the Jets would give up Niku before Samberg or Vesalainen.

1st, Niku, Petan (or Appleton or Lemieux). I think that's the minimum cost for Duchene, and another pick might be required (maybe a 3rd).

 

[Daximus]

Stone for free as a UFA and then trading Connor for futures, or for a D and then trade Trouba for futures actually expands the Jets window, while preserving the current window. I think that if you can snag a top UFA for no assets then you have to consider it. "Money for nothing..."

That's contingent on a lot going right. We already know what we have in Connor and trading Trouba might be a foregone conclusion. Plus Stone is pretty much guarantee'd to drop off as a player quicker than Connor will. So in that aspect you have shortened your window trading a young 30 goal scorer for a soon to be 27 two-way winger. Should we trade Laine for Ovechkin right now? He's better at 33 then Laine currently is.

 

[Daximus]

I think Duchene will cost more than that. One of the Jets top prospects like Vesalainen or Niku or Samberg would likely be on the list. I'd be reluctant to part with any of them at this point, but I think that's going to be the cost. I'd bet the Jets would give up Niku before Samberg or Vesalainen.

1st, Niku, Petan (or Appleton or Lemieux). I think that's the minimum cost for Duchene, and another pick might be required (maybe a 3rd).

Maybe. Have to wonder how many more suitors are out there for a top 6 C. Us, Calgary, NYI, potentially Boston but I think they want a winger more. There seems to be more suitors for Panarin and Stone then there is for Duchene. What we want from the market place doesn't seem to have a whole lot of people after him.

 

[Trinity]

That's contingent on a lot going right. We already know what we have in Connor and trading Trouba might be a foregone conclusion. Plus Stone is pretty much guarantee'd to drop off as a player quicker than Connor will. So in that aspect you have shortened your window trading a young 30 goal scorer for a soon to be 27 two-way winger. Should we trade Laine for Ovechkin right now? He's better at 33 then Laine currently is.

I'd love to obtain Stone but this is a very solid point.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Depends on what you classify as better I suppose. They are close enough that is it subjective. If defence is your game I think Stone is better if generating offensive chances is your game I think Duchene is better. Duchene is the better fit on the Jets IMO. He plays with speed, creativity and offensive skill which is how our team is built. We take down other teams by scoring goals and with Duchene I feel we will do so in spades.

Offense is not better than defense. Defense is not better than offense. Personally, I prefer well rounded players who excel at both.

You can look at Duchene and call him a better fit because he is offensive and so is our team. You can just as easily say that we have more than enough offense and need more defense.

Your work on finer points, like zone entries and exits is more revealing than simple offense or defense. Interesting reads here - although my eyes glazed over and I skipped a bit.

 

[Daximus]

Offense is not better than defense. Defense is not better than offense. Personally, I prefer well rounded players who excel at both.

You can look at Duchene and call him a better fit because he is offensive and so is our team. You can just as easily say that we have more than enough offense and need more defense.

Your work on finer points, like zone entries and exits is more revealing than simple offense or defense. Interesting reads here - although my eyes glazed over and I skipped a bit.

I just think Duchene fits the mold of player that Laine seems to have gelled with in the past more so then guys who grind their goals while playing excellent on the other side of the puck. Plus Duchene fits an actual need. Only need Stone fits in my eyes is having a local kid on the roster.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I disagree there are teams who have acquired rentals and won it all and teams who have stood pat and won it all. The teams that have made adds have won a lot more. Now there is something to be said about getting rentals that are one and done. But if Duchene shows chemistry with Laine, which I think he will. Then we will assuredly look at the cost and feasibility of a re-sign. There are a lot of moving parts but if Duchene finds a winger he gels with and gets far, maybe even winning a Cup. He might find there is no better place then here to be. Doesn't seem like the purely money type. He wanted out of Colorado because they just were't good enough and based on his comments hasn't even given a thought to re-signing in Ottawa. The guy wants to win.

The problem is that we can't go and see the results if things had been done differently. We can only speculate. We can see rentals who simply did not contribute though, and there are quite a few of them. There are examples of teams that added and won and teams that added and did not win. There are far more of the latter. There are also examples of teams that did not add and won and teams that did not add and did not win. Again, far more of the latter.

Caps last year did not add. They were not the best team in the league last year either, IMO. They were not even the best Caps team of the last 10 years. But they have been in contention, to varying degrees for most of the last 10 years, and even beyond that. Things finally lined up for them.

I think Duchene is determined to price himself out of our reach. However, he might sign for a number close to what has been thrown around for Stone. The difference is that rumour about Stone wanting to come here. That is really when the Stone talk heated up.

I thought I had seen him quoted as being interested in staying in Ottawa - if they would pay him.

Lot of 'ifs'. I would prefer to keep building a team of players with some term. **** the rentals.

 

[TheGovernment]

With how much some of the guy on her love Petan, we should be able to do a Petan for Point straight up trade..... lol

 

[GNP]

I'm sure they won't be, but teams keep on getting killed with big deals to older versions like Perry,Kesler, Seabrook etc. Better to spend big on players through their younger prime, but vets would definitely suffer.

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Very good post here --and so very true. I think GM's have a hard time separating emotion from logic. The GM's have had these players in their system for a long time, had first place clubs with them, and they don't look older to the GM because you don't notice someone aging as much if you know them, plus you had success with them.

Teams like the Ducks had Perry and Kessler in their system for a long time, and had success with these guys, 1st place finishes, Cup finals, and that appeals to the GM's -"false sense" of security. This is what enables these older guys to get big dollars $$

This could also be seen when Chevy was trying to sign Ladd for something like $ 6 mil over 5 years. I don't think Ladd was worth anymore than $ 4 mil, but Chevy was romanced by the fact that Ladd was the Captain, and the Jet's had some success with him. Chevy was very lucky that Ladd walked, as he's really finished. Also lucky that Stastny didn't sign, as he's to old and injury prone IMO.

The "moral of the story"-is separate emotions from intellect, and you'll likely be a lot more successful as a General manager in the NHL.

It's easier said than done though !!!

 

[surixon]

That's how I see it. Stone for Connor closes our window IMO. It's a lateral move that loses us yardage. We're still close to a touchdown but not as close as we could have been. I'm bad at analogies but I agree.
Duchene fits a need and gives us depth. Sign him if you are itching to sign someone. Might even come cheaper than Stone.

When was the last time a player of Conner's age and caliber traded for a rental? It just doesn't happen, heck when was the last time a Roslovic or ves level young player/prospect traded at the deadline? Teams won't get those types of pieces. Two time Norris trophy winner Karlson didn't return that type of package.