Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part IV

[Whileee]

He isn't among the top 8 Dmen in the league. So 7.5 is already an overpay - although there will probably be more players get to that level next off-season. I could see swallowing that much overpay to solve the problem on our D corps.

If the cap goes to 83 next year, 8 mil = 9.64%. That % of this year's 79.5 would be 7.66 mil. I wonder which Dmen got 9.64% of cap when they signed? Hmmm - quick look shows Keith, Seabrook, Vlasic & Giordano between 9-10%. 7.5 mil is 9% of 83 mil. That brings Shattenkirk, Yandle and Fowler into the comparison between 8.7-8.9. At 8.6 we have OEL and ..... Tyler Myers.

I think those comparables say that 7.5 is an overpay, even with 83 mil cap - but not out of sight. My concern is the effect it might have on others, particularly Morrissey. If Trouba gets 7.5x5-6 years, what will Morrissey need to get for 7-8 years? I think that makes 8 the starting point. It also might spill over to some of the F's, although a less direct relationship.

There's a larger context, that brings in the status vis-a-vis UFA years, which are always more costly, especially for a player in his prime.

And Trouba has paid a price to get himself to this contract bargaining position. Over the last three years of top performance, he's been paid an average of $3.83 million / year. I think he's entitled to recover that, based on the CBA and his overall contribution to the franchise. So, yes, 8M would be an overpay if considered in isolation, but when you consider his age, career stage and contract status, I think it's not so much out of line. And as you point out, the Jets' situation on D going forward probably justifies a bit of an overpay to Trouba, and probably Morrissey too when he comes off a very team-friendly bridge (considering his impact).

 

[Whileee]

I still don't agree with Stanley on your list at this point. I don't think he has shown top 4 upside yet. I don't think he has shown 3rd pair upside yet, or even AHL upside yet. None of that is saying that he won't eventually. But he is still such a long term project that his potential and probability of success are both just blank at this time. We probably have 3-4 other guys who would be 3rd on your list ahead of Stanley - at this time.

That means you are expecting Niku and Samberg to give us a 3-4 and a 5-6. They still may give us no one at all, or only 1. That 1 might be 2nd pair or 3rd. There is also still the possibility that they exceed your hopes for them. It is just unknown at this point.

Niku is the safer bet of the 2 right now and he doesn't look to be quite ready yet. I would lean toward keeping him now and playing him instead of Morrow. Not because Niku is kicking the door down but because the competition is weak. We live with Niku learning on the job because, even with his inexperience he is at least as good as Morrow, maybe better.

I agree that top-4 is a real stretch for Stanley, and I'd be pleased if he turned into a good 3rd pairing LD.

But I must also say that I'm pleasantly surprised that he has transitioned to the AHL and is staying afloat, by all accounts. I actually thought he might really struggle this season as he got used to the speed and strength of pros, and the general chaos of the AHL game. Give him another couple of years of steady improvement at the AHL level and I think he could become a solid NHLer.

 

[BigZ65]

Remember how Chevy said he'd been looking at Brian Strait for several years before he got him? (Cue face palms.) I hope he doesn't do that with Brassard.

Chevy likes to troll the media.

 

[CaptainChef]

Most likely, yes. But there is still a small chance that money will get it done. If that is the case we should try to keep him even if it costs a little more than he should be worth. Paying him an extra mil beats the alternative of trying to replace him.

Problem with paying Trouba 7.5-8 is that Morrissey will want and deserves that much as well. We can't afford to pay everyone that plus keeping our skilled forwards going forward. Either Trouba goes for cheaper young players and prospects, or we need to make some huge sacrifices up front.

 

[voyageur]

I still don't agree with Stanley on your list at this point. I don't think he has shown top 4 upside yet. I don't think he has shown 3rd pair upside yet, or even AHL upside yet. None of that is saying that he won't eventually. But he is still such a long term project that his potential and probability of success are both just blank at this time. We probably have 3-4 other guys who would be 3rd on your list ahead of Stanley - at this time.

That means you are expecting Niku and Samberg to give us a 3-4 and a 5-6. They still may give us no one at all, or only 1. That 1 might be 2nd pair or 3rd. There is also still the possibility that they exceed your hopes for them. It is just unknown at this point.

Niku is the safer bet of the 2 right now and he doesn't look to be quite ready yet. I would lean toward keeping him now and playing him instead of Morrow. Not because Niku is kicking the door down but because the competition is weak. We live with Niku learning on the job because, even with his inexperience he is at least as good as Morrow, maybe better.

I'd be really surprised if Chiarot isn't back here either, at least as a #7. And he is a guy who has played top 4, and bottom pairing, and been on the + side of the ledger.

You're only going to see one of Niku, Samberg or Stanley next year. D and d. And since Niku doesn't kill penalties that limits his role, to the Morrow one this year. Everyone else in the lineup needs to kill penalties, and I would suggest well if we are to go anywhere.

People expecting Samberg to jump from college to full time steady NHL defenseman should temper their expectations. He has not played a game as a pro yet. Not one. If we are lucky he signs to play with the Moose at the end of the college year. Which would be a good headstart.

Stanley is doing just fine on the Moose. Progressing. He's not - whatever Niku was, so I think his game may be a little cleaner in his own end.

You might hope for

Morrissey-?
Benny-Buff
Maata-Niku
Poolman

Next year. With that ? being Trouba or Trouba's return. Maybe Buff moves up and we re-sign Myers. And trade Trouba for a prospect like Borgstrom, though that would be a prospect we'd have to protect in the expansion draft now, because of the extra year.

Stanley will likely get an NHL look before Samberg, just because he's a year ahead in the d&d.

We might have Nogier as depth too.

 

[Jake Barnes]

Problem with paying Trouba 7.5-8 is that Morrissey will want and deserves that much as well. We can't afford to pay everyone that plus keeping our skilled forwards going forward. Either Trouba goes for cheaper young players and prospects, or we need to make some huge sacrifices up front.

When it comes time to re-sign Morrissey, Buff will be coming off the books. IMO, if we can get Trouba and Morrissey locked up long term for a combined 15-16M, I'd be just fine with it. I really don't think that's excessive for an elite top pairing that can eat 30+ min in the playoffs. If Buff wants to keep playing, he can take shorter team friendly contracts or move on. And, if it comes down to it and we need to move a forward then so be it. I just think you don't break up a top paring like Mo and Trouba unless you have no other choice. Those are types of pairings that win you championships.

 

[kanadalainen]

I love that Trouba's value is sky high right now. It will bring back a lot in a trade. He, however, clearly doesn't want to be here.

You may be right. The denizens of the Islanders board were loving Trouba during the Jets recent visit.

 

[CaptainChef]

When it comes time to re-sign Morrissey, Buff will be coming off the books. IMO, if we can get Trouba and Morrissey locked up long term for a combined 15-16M, I'd be just fine with it. I really don't think that's excessive for an elite top pairing that can eat 30+ min in the playoffs. If Buff wants to keep playing, he can take shorter team friendly contracts or move on. And, if it comes down to it and we need to move a forward then so be it. I just think you don't break up a top paring like Mo and Trouba unless you have no other choice. Those are types of pairings that win you championships.

Yup, I hear you & I'd love to Trouba if he's willing, but...
Ignoring Buff's 7.6 for now, we pay 16 for our top 2 D. Add nearly nearly 33 that we're currently paying our top 6 forwards on longer-term contracts (scheif, wheels, little, ehlers, lowry, Perrault) & I'm guessing 17 to get Laine/Connor signed. That's 66.0 mil for 8 forwards & 2 D. Leaving 17.0 million to fill in the roster (13 players).
Even getting rid or Myers, Perrault & Buff, that's still only 21.0 to fill 14 roster spots -- pretty hard to get any quality @ 1.5 per roster spot unless you have a ton a ELCs in there.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There's a larger context, that brings in the status vis-a-vis UFA years, which are always more costly, especially for a player in his prime.

And Trouba has paid a price to get himself to this contract bargaining position. Over the last three years of top performance, he's been paid an average of $3.83 million / year. I think he's entitled to recover that, based on the CBA and his overall contribution to the franchise. So, yes, 8M would be an overpay if considered in isolation, but when you consider his age, career stage and contract status, I think it's not so much out of line. And as you point out, the Jets' situation on D going forward probably justifies a bit of an overpay to Trouba, and probably Morrissey too when he comes off a very team-friendly bridge (considering his impact).

Re: the larger context. That is getting pretty fuzzy. I prefer to maintain that distinction but young players are getting paid right out of their ELCs.

Trouba has maneuvred himself into this strong bargaining position - that is the payment for what he has given up over the last 3 years. I don't believe he is entitled to recover that. His bargaining position is strong and that somewhat enables him to recover that. Maybe a fine point, but I think it is real.

We are in agreement here that an overpay is justified on 2 counts,1) his strong bargaining position that he has paid to achieve and 2) the unattractive alternative. The exact dollar figures we are talking about are too close together to quibble over. The difference between 7.5 and 8 is well within the error bars on our ability to estimate. But whatever we give Trouba at this point, Morrissey gets more, even without any cap inflation. Like Trouba, he is having to take a bridge deal. Its coming about differently is beside the point. Also and the main point, he is better than Trouba. That may be offset by the higher value of a RHS.

Lets split the difference, give Trouba 7.75x6 Jan 2 and Morrissey 8.25x8 July 2. If Trouba must get 8 then he must sign for 7-8 years. That gives me a headache planning cap compliance. But I think it is necessary that we lock up our top pair of D.

They are now projecting a cap of 83+ next year and presumably a similar rise the year after, which is when Morrissey's new contract would kick in. That would mean a cap of 87. That is about 1.2 more than I have been projecting, but there will still be pain.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Problem with paying Trouba 7.5-8 is that Morrissey will want and deserves that much as well. We can't afford to pay everyone that plus keeping our skilled forwards going forward. Either Trouba goes for cheaper young players and prospects, or we need to make some huge sacrifices up front.

Why not? Buff and Perreault thenselves clear over 10 million.. Myers 5.5 ish.. Kulikov 4 ish... Yeah raises but cap will go up with Seattle.

Jets could pair Trouba Morrissey together at 16 million combined Per.. Keep Scheif Laine Wheels little Connor ehlers lowry etc.. And fill out Roster with the future pipeline and Roslo and Apples if it keeps up. Maybe a Logan Shaw type. Jets can keep their young stars for sure. All of em.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree that top-4 is a real stretch for Stanley, and I'd be pleased if he turned into a good 3rd pairing LD.

But I must also say that I'm pleasantly surprised that he has transitioned to the AHL and is staying afloat, by all accounts. I actually thought he might really struggle this season as he got used to the speed and strength of pros, and the general chaos of the AHL game. Give him another couple of years of steady improvement at the AHL level and I think he could become a solid NHLer.

Agree. I thought he might need to spend at least a little time in the ECHL this year. I suppose he still might, if the Jets sent all of the callups back. But for now, as you say, he is staying afloat. And he will be getting more and tougher TOI because of injuries.

I still regard his upside and probability of success as undetermined at this point though. That is not the same as saying they are low or bad. They are unknown. It would be different if he looked like leveling off but so far he still seems to be progressing. If he starts to stand out in the AHL for more than size we might be able to start assigning projected probabilities. Right now, IMO it is just too hard to do.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Problem with paying Trouba 7.5-8 is that Morrissey will want and deserves that much as well. We can't afford to pay everyone that plus keeping our skilled forwards going forward. Either Trouba goes for cheaper young players and prospects, or we need to make some huge sacrifices up front.

I agree. I haven't worked out detailed projections with those kinds of numbers yet. The cap projections are creeping higher too and that will help. Without doing that ground work, I'm not going to propose specifics yet.

The thing is that Mo and Trouba are our top pair D. They matter like Scheifele and Laine. If we need to sacrifice some other forward strength, so be it. First of all, we have more strength and depth up front and secondly, wingers are a lot easier to replace than top pair D.

If Trouba insists on leaving even when presented with an overpay, we will just have to hope Chevy can get decent value in return and find a way to replace him. There is no choice. But replacing him in a timely fashion looks like a very low probability game. We can debate the value of having traded him sooner but we can't turn back the clock. We have to make the best of what we have.

 

[CaptainChef]

Why not? Buff and Perreault thenselves clear over 10 million.. Myers 5.5 ish.. Kulikov 4 ish... Yeah raises but cap will go up with Seattle.

Jets could pair Trouba Morrissey together at 16 million combined Per.. Keep Scheif Laine Wheels little Connor ehlers lowry etc.. And fill out Roster with the future pipeline and Roslo and Apples if it keeps up. Maybe a Logan Shaw type. Jets can keep their young stars for sure. All of em.

I have not included any of those 4 players (Buff, Myers, Kulikov, Perrault) in my calculations above. Still extremely hard to replace those guys, plus 10 other roster players for 21 mil. Say you have 6 guys on ELCs, that's leaves you less than 2.0 per for your remaining 8 roster spots which would include a #3 & 4 defenceman.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'd be really surprised if Chiarot isn't back here either, at least as a #7. And he is a guy who has played top 4, and bottom pairing, and been on the + side of the ledger.

You're only going to see one of Niku, Samberg or Stanley next year. D and d. And since Niku doesn't kill penalties that limits his role, to the Morrow one this year. Everyone else in the lineup needs to kill penalties, and I would suggest well if we are to go anywhere.

People expecting Samberg to jump from college to full time steady NHL defenseman should temper their expectations. He has not played a game as a pro yet. Not one. If we are lucky he signs to play with the Moose at the end of the college year. Which would be a good headstart.

Stanley is doing just fine on the Moose. Progressing. He's not - whatever Niku was, so I think his game may be a little cleaner in his own end.

You might hope for

Morrissey-?
Benny-Buff
Maata-Niku
Poolman

Next year. With that ? being Trouba or Trouba's return. Maybe Buff moves up and we re-sign Myers. And trade Trouba for a prospect like Borgstrom, though that would be a prospect we'd have to protect in the expansion draft now, because of the extra year.

Stanley will likely get an NHL look before Samberg, just because he's a year ahead in the d&d.

We might have Nogier as depth too.

There are a lot of possibilities. Right now, I would bet on Chiarot being here next year, as you say, at least as a #7. I think Morrow is the one to go. If we were to pick up Maatta I would expect him to play 2LD ahead of Chiarot. Not sure about Niku on the right. His experience and comfort there aside, his weakness is in his own end and that is where playing off-side hurts. I guess it is a possibility though.

I hope they don't see Myers as a fall back if Trouba leaves. He just doesn't alleviate that situation at all. I'd rather try to sign Petrovic or Stralman as UFAs or make a trade somewhere. 3RD is not the problem. We have Poolman, Niku and Nogier there. The problem would be in the top 4. Either 2RD behind Buff or 1RD with Buff having a similar role to this year.

I don't see the draft year as determining that Stanley gets a look before Samberg. Samberg is on a steeper trajectory. That said, either or both could get a look as soon as next year but only a look. By the year after I expect (hope) Samberg will have pulled in front of Stanley. I hope Samberg will be NHL ready by then. I fully expect Stanley to need a year more than that. That is assuming he continues to progress and eventually does make it. I don't think it is being pessimistic to expect a project Dman like Stanley to need 3 years of AHL to reach the NHL.

 

[Gm0ney]

Chevy likes to troll the media.

Chevy's trolling-the-media-with-shitty-defensemen game is elite: Meech, Jones, Flood, Pardy, Brouillette, MacWilliam, Strait, Clitsome, Ellerby, Harrison, (not to mention signing Stu to a 4 year deal in 2014 that the team is still paying for). Slow your roll, Chevy!

 

[Robinson2187]

the team is still paying for

OMG this has given me unpleasant flashbacks

 

[Bob E]

Trouba is in our top shut down pairing, and is on pace for 9 goals, 36 assists and 45 points.

Morrissey and Trouba consistently win their match up against the other team’s best, and now seem to be able to chip in offensively, without it costing too much with their defence. They will get paid.

I’m not sure we can afford both under the cap. Likely not both of them and Buff as well. But I don’t really like our immediate future without Morrissey/Trouba as our top pairing.

If Trouba isn’t going to sign, then his value should be very high. Sure, other d like Dumba, Rielly, Gardiner, and RR in Buffalo score more, but I like the complete package we have with Morrissey and Trouba. Unfortunately, I don’t think it can last.

 

[garret9]

I agree that top-4 is a real stretch for Stanley, and I'd be pleased if he turned into a good 3rd pairing LD.

But I must also say that I'm pleasantly surprised that he has transitioned to the AHL and is staying afloat, by all accounts. I actually thought he might really struggle this season as he got used to the speed and strength of pros, and the general chaos of the AHL game. Give him another couple of years of steady improvement at the AHL level and I think he could become a solid NHLer.

I just hope he doesn't become Carlo... a player who eventually makes the NHL for being "much improved" but still sucks.

Either bust or make the NHL as a legit solid 3rd pair.

*cross fingers*

 

[Imcanadianeh]

Remember how Chevy said he'd been looking at Brian Strait for several years before he got him? (Cue face palms.) I hope he doesn't do that with Brassard.

I remember it as chevy said he tried to claim Brian Strait off waivers a year or two before he was signed.

You make it sound like Chevy was actively trying to trade for Brian Strait.

 

[Belzebob]

Trouba is in our top shut down pairing, and is on pace for 9 goals, 36 assists and 45 points.

Morrissey and Trouba consistently win their match up against the other team’s best, and now seem to be able to chip in offensively, without it costing too much with their defence. They will get paid.

I’m not sure we can afford both under the cap. Likely not both of them and Buff as well. But I don’t really like our immediate future without Morrissey/Trouba as our top pairing.

If Trouba isn’t going to sign, then his value should be very high. Sure, other d like Dumba, Rielly, Gardiner, and RR in Buffalo score more, but I like the complete package we have with Morrissey and Trouba. Unfortunately, I don’t think it can last.

people really need to get over trouba. enjoy this season.

my opinion of trouba has softened. he is putting in great effort and seems liked by the others.

with his family situation it is not hard to see why he wants to play closer to home.

he used the rules that the league agreed to.

he wanted it badly enough to forego a guaranteed contract that may of added 1 more year here

his last game this season should be his last game as a jet.

it would be better for both sides

 

[Jake Barnes]

Yup, I hear you & I'd love to Trouba if he's willing, but...
Ignoring Buff's 7.6 for now, we pay 16 for our top 2 D. Add nearly nearly 33 that we're currently paying our top 6 forwards on longer-term contracts (scheif, wheels, little, ehlers, lowry, Perrault) & I'm guessing 17 to get Laine/Connor signed. That's 66.0 mil for 8 forwards & 2 D. Leaving 17.0 million to fill in the roster (13 players).
Even getting rid or Myers, Perrault & Buff, that's still only 21.0 to fill 14 roster spots -- pretty hard to get any quality @ 1.5 per roster spot unless you have a ton a ELCs in there.

Agreed, it's tough to fill spots for 1.5M. I was basing my comment off of Whilee's spreadsheet, which suggests we'll have room to get everyone under the cap. In any case, if it comes down to trading a pricey(ish) forward to keep Trouba and Morrissey together, I do that in a heartbeat. Assuming we've already moved Perrault and Myers, I'm guessing Ehlers would be the odd man out. I'm also guessing he'd return a real nice futures package, which could be a good thing in the long run as it would allow us to restock depth at certain positions. In the meantime K-Ves would likely be a suitable fill in (this would be in the 20-21 season because Morrissey's still under contract next year).

Don't get me wrong, I'd rather not have to do that, but I'd be okay with it if it came down to that sort of either/or situation.

 

[puck stoppa]

Canes looking for top six forward. Anyone think Ehlers could be moved for one of their Ds? I wasn't thinking this year but maybe next summer if the Canes can't make a trade this year. I like Ehlers but wonder if that could work for both sides going forward.

 

[Neuf]

Canes looking for top six forward. Anyone think Ehlers could be moved for one of their Ds? I wasn't thinking this year but maybe next summer if the Canes can't make a trade this year. I like Ehlers but wonder if that could work for both sides going forward.

I was wondering about a Trouba/ Nylander three way with the Canes to get one of their D, but nothing really made sense for Toronto to not just deal directly with Carolina. I'd rather keep Ehlers. I'm convinced that Trouba is the chip for replacing Trouba. Just might require extra trading.

 

[Whileee]

I just hope he doesn't become Carlo... a player who eventually makes the NHL for being "much improved" but still sucks.

Either bust or make the NHL as a legit solid 3rd pair.

*cross fingers*

Maurice hasn't shown a penchant for giving breaks to "promising prospects". So I guess if he gets favoured treatment from Maurice on the roster it will be due to his physical play...

 

[Whileee]

Canes looking for top six forward. Anyone think Ehlers could be moved for one of their Ds? I wasn't thinking this year but maybe next summer if the Canes can't make a trade this year. I like Ehlers but wonder if that could work for both sides going forward.

KVes is underrated as a key piece to the puzzle. Either he makes it easier to move Ehlers or Connor, or he's a great trade chip. I would bet that Carolina would give up a lot for Vesalainen.