Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2017-18

[Adam da bomb]

Hopefully the Jets can figure out a way to move Mason after this season. Not having that contract on the books really gives us a lot of breathing room to be able to afford luxaries like bringing Toby back for a season.

Put him on waivers and see if anyone bites. Losing him for free would be a positive

 

[Aavco Cup]

Put him on waivers and see if anyone bites. Losing him for free would be a positive

Nobody takes goalies on waivers in October

 

[Adam da bomb]

Nobody takes goalies on waivers in October

Well do you have any other suggestions how they will manage the cap and everything. It's a lot easier to shoot down other ppl's ideas then come up with your own.

 

[surixon]

Well do you have any other suggestions how they will manage the cap and everything. It's a lot easier to shoot down other ppl's ideas then come up with your own.

There are always teams in desperate need of a goalie. Mason has shown that he can be a solid starter I wouldn't be surprised to see a team to take a chance on him in order to solve their position. The Islanders come to mind.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Well do you have any other suggestions how they will manage the cap and everything. It's a lot easier to shoot down other ppl's ideas then come up with your own.

If you want him gone for next season then you have to find a way to trade him. That's all. Waiting until the waiver wire opens is too late. To trade him you likely need to sweeten the pot a bit with a prospect.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I definitely agree that it will be tight and managing it will be tricky but I think we will be able to keep all our key players through 19-20 before real tough decisions will need to be made. Chevy will really earn his keep over the next few years.

My main point is that you need to have good cheap young players to round out the bottom of your rosters. Judging by your projections you also subscribe to that train of thought. We won't be able to allocate $10 million on a bottom pairing next year. My philosophy is you lock up your core long term (Helle, JoMo, Trouba, Chef, Laine and Ehelers) and then fit the rest in.

One thing I will say is that Chevy has staggered the contracts quite well so far so he has some flexibility. I do think we will be saying good by to another fan favorite in a couple of years all the more reason to win it all within the next three seasons.

Edit in the summer of 20-21 we will lose a player due to the expansion draft so that will likely help the cap crunch my best guess is that they leave Perrault exposed and he would likely get picked up. Kulikov is also off the books.

Mostly agree except that I think hard decisions will start this off-season. But the main thing, I think is that he will be able to keep most of the team together. But he may also choose to move some player(s). There are a lot of moving parts and possible moves. My forecasts could be tossed out the window with just 1 big move.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hopefully the Jets can figure out a way to move Mason after this season. Not having that contract on the books really gives us a lot of breathing room to be able to afford luxaries like bringing Toby back for a season.

I agree but it will be very hard to do unless he plays very well from here on.

 

[Maukkis]

Lol @ the notion of Vesalainen being the replacement for Wheeler.

Vesalainen might give us the option of offloading Armia or, if we are lucky enough, Perreault, but Wheeler is not realistically replaceable by anyone.

 

[bumblebeeman]

Lol @ the notion of Vesalainen being the replacement for Wheeler.

Vesalainen might give us the option of offloading Armia or, if we are lucky enough, Perreault, but Wheeler is not realistically replaceable by anyone.

What about Laine?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

What about Laine?

What about Laine?

 

[Gm0ney]

What about Laine?

What about Laine as a Wheeler replacement?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

What about Laine as a Wheeler replacement?

Then who would replace Laine?

 

[Gm0ney]

Then who would replace Laine?

How many 1st line wingers do you want? We currently have 5...Wheeler, Laine, Ehlers, Perreault, Connor. With Roslo knocking on the door and Vesalainen in the wings. The Jets probably can't expect that situation to last forever. It's a near impossibility to maintain long term in the cap era.

 

[Flair Hay]

Getting rid of Mason is going to be a tall order... Only one year left and we would need to replace him with someone decent anyway.

I kind of figured we can let Toby go if they think Niku can handle third pair.

Trading Myers to keep Enstrom makes no sense to me. But if the return is good enough anyone can be traded.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How many 1st line wingers do you want? We currently have 5...Wheeler, Laine, Ehlers, Perreault, Connor. With Roslo knocking on the door and Vesalainen in the wings. The Jets probably can't expect that situation to last forever. It's a near impossibility to maintain long term in the cap era.

If you are talking about how we could cope if Wheeler was moved you are changing the subject. This is about a replacement for Wheeler, not shuffling the current roster.

I agree that someone will have to go. Can we make up a lineup without Wheeler? Of course we can. We would still have Laine, Roslovic, Armia on the right side with Appleton and Spacek as options. Plus, Ehlers can move over if necessary. So if KV is ready he could, indirectly replace Wheeler but only in the sense of taking that roster spot. For that matter, Vesalainen is supposed to be able to play either wing. But he doesn't 'replace' Wheeler.

I can't realistically see Chevy choosing Wheeler to be the one to move. Honestly though, I find it very hard to pick one. Frenchie is probably my favourite player but maybe it has to come to a choice between him and Wheeler because of age. From some angles it makes sense that he should be the first domino to fall but, OTOH his contract is smaller and trade return would be much less. Maybe that shifts it onto Wheeler. If neither of them is Connor next up?

This is why I've been saying that Chevy's very tough decisions start this off-season.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Getting rid of Mason is going to be a tall order... Only one year left and we would need to replace him with someone decent anyway.

I kind of figured we can let Toby go if they think Niku can handle third pair.

Trading Myers to keep Enstrom makes no sense to me. But if the return is good enough anyone can be traded.

That's what I've been thinking.

Just a suspicion but I think Toby may have already indicated that he wants to go home to Sweden next year.

I think that if Chevy was going to bring him back next year he would have been signed before now.

Morrow is a backup plan in case Niku doesn't make it.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Enstrom if resigned would be at 1.75-2 mil. You can't replace Wheeler. That said you can make up for his production. Laine right now is sitting at 36 goals next year he will be a year more mature as well as getting first line minutes goes a long way to replacing that production. Same with all the young guys who aren't in their prime yet. I dont see how you make the budget work with Wherler making 7mil. You can also get multiple good prospects for Wheeler in a trade which gives you more depth at forward and D who are cost controlled. None of those prospects will be near Wheelers level but it saves you money to afford Trouba Mo, and Laine.
I can't see them moving Wheeler just like it took them a long time to move Stuart. Extreme loyalty.
Not comparing Stuart and Wheeler in any other way as we know wheeler is a mil better.

 

[GaryPoppins]

Lets not be in such a rush to ship out Mason. He is better than he has shown. This is a superbly off year.. 2 concussions, getting acclimated to a new team and a new city. Plus, didn't ever really get a chance to get in a rhythm(Obviously due to the emergence of Helle, which is fine.)

All I'm saying is that I would take this season with Mason as an outlier. He will need to come into next year ready to compete and salvage the rest of his career if he wants a contract going forward, so he has all the motivation he needs.

I would also assume Helle's contract would be structured around Mason's salary next year.

 

[10Ducky10]

I would guess that Helle's AAV would be around 4.5m - 4.75m?

 

[buggs]

I would guess that Helle's AAV would be around 4.5m - 4.75m?

Something in that neighbourhood yes. I wonder how term-shy Chevy is after Pavelec's debacle? Certainly Helle's career numbers seem to indicate last year was the outlier and this year is a return to the norm but that seems a reasonable number.

I'm also not ready to ship out Mason. One year and his salary is high for a backup but we have to remember that's not how he was signed. Helle's emergence as a stud after a lousy year last year is a good thing to have and we'll have to struggle with Mason's salary for a year. I think Hutch walks away as a salty guy knowing he's behind Helle no matter what. I don't think Comrie's going to be a legit NHL goaltender and it's too early really for Berdin. I think the solution for Chevy will come via bridge deals.

 

[Gm0ney]

If you are talking about how we could cope if Wheeler was moved you are changing the subject. This is about a replacement for Wheeler, not shuffling the current roster.

I agree that someone will have to go. Can we make up a lineup without Wheeler? Of course we can. We would still have Laine, Roslovic, Armia on the right side with Appleton and Spacek as options. Plus, Ehlers can move over if necessary. So if KV is ready he could, indirectly replace Wheeler but only in the sense of taking that roster spot. For that matter, Vesalainen is supposed to be able to play either wing. But he doesn't 'replace' Wheeler.

I can't realistically see Chevy choosing Wheeler to be the one to move. Honestly though, I find it very hard to pick one. Frenchie is probably my favourite player but maybe it has to come to a choice between him and Wheeler because of age. From some angles it makes sense that he should be the first domino to fall but, OTOH his contract is smaller and trade return would be much less. Maybe that shifts it onto Wheeler. If neither of them is Connor next up?

This is why I've been saying that Chevy's very tough decisions start this off-season.

Sorry, maybe I didn't start at the beginning of the debate, but I'm not sure what you mean by the bolded. Seems contradictory - do you mean how will the Jets replace Wheeler's production? Will 33 year old Blake Wheeler be able to match his current production? Will 22 year old Laine be able to? Laine's already scoring at a higher rate 5v5 at age 19. Will anyone in the system be able to replace Laine's current scoring in 2 years? Maybe...Vesalainen or Roslovic - and they'll probably be a lot cheaper than what it'll cost to keep Wheeler around after his current deal expires.

It'll be a tough decision in terms of loyalty and the Jets family and all that - but business-wise, I don't think the Jets can afford to keep Wheeler around past next year unless he takes a steep discount. I don't think they can trade him if they're contending again next year either.

Tough decisions, indeed...

 

[surixon]

Sorry, maybe I didn't start at the beginning of the debate, but I'm not sure what you mean by the bolded. Seems contradictory - do you mean how will the Jets replace Wheeler's production? Will 33 year old Blake Wheeler be able to match his current production? Will 22 year old Laine be able to? Laine's already scoring at a higher rate 5v5 at age 19. Will anyone in the system be able to replace Laine's current scoring in 2 years? Maybe...Vesalainen or Roslovic - and they'll probably be a lot cheaper than what it'll cost to keep Wheeler around after his current deal expires.

It'll be a tough decision in terms of loyalty and the Jets family and all that - but business-wise, I don't think the Jets can afford to keep Wheeler around past next year unless he takes a steep discount. I don't think they can trade him if they're contending again next year either.

Tough decisions, indeed...

This is kind of where I am at as well. While I think Wheeler is a great player and ambassdor for this franchise I am skeptical we see another season from him like this one. Heck there are already numerous warning signs in his underlying numbers over the past few seasons that indicate that he is likely not been near as good as what his point totals say. If he is looking to be compensated based on his totals the last few years then I think we need to walk away as it won't be smart to allocate 7.5 to 8 million of our cap to a mid to late 30's player.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Sorry, maybe I didn't start at the beginning of the debate, but I'm not sure what you mean by the bolded. Seems contradictory - do you mean how will the Jets replace Wheeler's production? Will 33 year old Blake Wheeler be able to match his current production? Will 22 year old Laine be able to? Laine's already scoring at a higher rate 5v5 at age 19. Will anyone in the system be able to replace Laine's current scoring in 2 years? Maybe...Vesalainen or Roslovic - and they'll probably be a lot cheaper than what it'll cost to keep Wheeler around after his current deal expires.

It'll be a tough decision in terms of loyalty and the Jets family and all that - but business-wise, I don't think the Jets can afford to keep Wheeler around past next year unless he takes a steep discount. I don't think they can trade him if they're contending again next year either.

Tough decisions, indeed...

Someone suggested Vesalainen as a 'replacement' for Wheeler. Someone else derided the suggestion. Someone else suggested Laine as a replacement for Wheeler.

It doesn't add up very well either way.

Replacing Wheeler in this context, to me means - the Jets will be as good with Wheeler out and KV in. Or the Jets will be as good with Wheeler out, Laine playing in his spot and xxx in.

In the near term, I don't think either of those statements are likely true unless xxx = Rantanen, or similar.

The entire debate about whether to extend Wheeler or trade him is much bigger. His age is a factor. However he is peaking quite late. Does that mean he will last unusually long? It might. Is that a good gamble? What about his leadership, his intangibles? Now weigh all that against his probable cap hit and the probable trade return.

I think the decision needs to be made this off-season. Otherwise he is a pending UFA and not likely to be traded in season. So we probably lose him for nothing.

I think that if the decision is to extend Wheeler, then someone else has to move. It could be Trouba, if he doesn't look like signing long term. It could be Buff. It also could be Little or Perreault. I can't see it being Little with his new contract not even in effect yet. Perreault makes sense in some ways. I would wait another year first. His contract is a bargain for his contribution, IMO. The question would be if his contract is large enough to get the job done. 4.125 minus about 1 mil for his replacement only saves a little more than 3 mil.

If none of those older players then it has to be one of our young wingers who has already had his raise or very soon will have. I think we could most easily spare Connor among those who will earn enough to be cap difference makers. So that would make it a choice between young Connor and aging Wheeler. To me, that looks more like Wheeler would go, but it is not a slam dunk. It would depend on how long you think he will remain a top 10 in the league RW and the relative trade returns for the 2. But a 10 year age difference is pretty compelling, IMO.

Chevy is really going to start earning his pay this summer.

 

[surixon]

Someone suggested Vesalainen as a 'replacement' for Wheeler. Someone else derided the suggestion. Someone else suggested Laine as a replacement for Wheeler.

It doesn't add up very well either way.

Replacing Wheeler in this context, to me means - the Jets will be as good with Wheeler out and KV in. Or the Jets will be as good with Wheeler out, Laine playing in his spot and xxx in.

In the near term, I don't think either of those statements are likely true unless xxx = Rantanen, or similar.

The entire debate about whether to extend Wheeler or trade him is much bigger. His age is a factor. However he is peaking quite late. Does that mean he will last unusually long? It might. Is that a good gamble? What about his leadership, his intangibles? Now weigh all that against his probable cap hit and the probable trade return.

I think the decision needs to be made this off-season. Otherwise he is a pending UFA and not likely to be traded in season. So we probably lose him for nothing.

I think that if the decision is to extend Wheeler, then someone else has to move. It could be Trouba, if he doesn't look like signing long term. It could be Buff. It also could be Little or Perreault. I can't see it being Little with his new contract not even in effect yet. Perreault makes sense in some ways. I would wait another year first. His contract is a bargain for his contribution, IMO. The question would be if his contract is large enough to get the job done. 4.125 minus about 1 mil for his replacement only saves a little more than 3 mil.

If none of those older players then it has to be one of our young wingers who has already had his raise or very soon will have. I think we could most easily spare Connor among those who will earn enough to be cap difference makers. So that would make it a choice between young Connor and aging Wheeler. To me, that looks more like Wheeler would go, but it is not a slam dunk. It would depend on how long you think he will remain a top 10 in the league RW and the relative trade returns for the 2. But a 10 year age difference is pretty compelling, IMO.

Chevy is really going to start earning his pay this summer.

I think we need be carful when we say Wheeler is peaking late. He most certainly is having a career season point wise but the numbers show he peaked 3 seasons ago with regards to his ability to individually drive play. I think its more likely that he falls back down to his norm in the 60 to 65 point range.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think we need be carful when we say Wheeler is peaking late. He most certainly is having a career season point wise but the numbers show he peaked 3 seasons ago with regards to his ability to individually drive play. I think its more likely that he falls back down to his norm in the 60 to 65 point range.

Not to dispute your point but the last 2 season were his 2 highest scoring ones and he is on track to exceed both this year. What numbers are you looking at as individually driving play?

I agree we need to be careful, or rather Chevy needs to be careful, in assessing and projecting value. The projecting part is obviously the toughest part.

I would really hate to part with Wheeler after this season but it might very well be the right thing to do. Pretty sure his trade value will be very high. I'm glad its not my decision to make.