Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2017-18

[Flair Hay]

Wheeler will be here the remainder of his contract. Surely we will have another kick at the can meet year with half our roster still young and improving.

We aren't trading him for a late 1st for asset management purposes

Hard to argue the long game play is to let him walk and keep everyone else. Besides Myers anyway.

Or, we can pay the piper as a cost of being a contender. Hard not to when its your captain and best all around player. It's not even about right or wrong as much as do one or the other and hope for the best. A lot can happen between now and July 2019.

 

[HannuJ]

let's take a moment here.
this isn't the 50s or 60s. there's a salary cap and there are 31 teams in the league. players can become UFAs, which didn't happen 50 years ago (hell, didn't really happen in the 80s).
so how long should a captain realistically be with that franchise?
i'm thinking that 5 years is a pretty good run, no?

 

[Adam da bomb]

Wheeler will be here the remainder of his contract. Surely we will have another kick at the can meet year with half our roster still young and improving.

We aren't trading him for a late 1st for asset management purposes

Hard to argue the long game play is to let him walk and keep everyone else. Besides Myers anyway.

Or, we can pay the piper as a cost of being a contender. Hard not to when its your captain and best all around player. It's not even about right or wrong as much as do one or the other and hope for the best. A lot can happen between now and July 2019.

I would rather have Schief or Laine than Wheeler.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Wheeler will be here the remainder of his contract. Surely we will have another kick at the can meet year with half our roster still young and improving.

We aren't trading him for a late 1st for asset management purposes

Hard to argue the long game play is to let him walk and keep everyone else. Besides Myers anyway.

Or, we can pay the piper as a cost of being a contender. Hard not to when its your captain and best all around player. It's not even about right or wrong as much as do one or the other and hope for the best. A lot can happen between now and July 2019.

It could go that way (letting him walk after next year). I think that makes him a very expensive rental though. He will bring a lot more than a late 1st at the draft. Or at least I think he will. But it isn't like other teams don't make that choice every year.

I hate the idea of players of that calibre being allowed to walk the same way I hate paying high prices for rentals. It amounts to the same thing.

I'm going to find it hard to criticize Chevy no matter which path he chooses. But I have only been considering the 2 possibilities, trade or extend. The 'own rental' is a 3rd option. It is my least preferred one though. That one I may criticize.

 

[surixon]

Not to dispute your point but the last 2 season were his 2 highest scoring ones and he is on track to exceed both this year. What numbers are you looking at as individually driving play?

I agree we need to be careful, or rather Chevy needs to be careful, in assessing and projecting value. The projecting part is obviously the toughest part.

I would really hate to part with Wheeler after this season but it might very well be the right thing to do. Pretty sure his trade value will be very high. I'm glad its not my decision to make.

See below:

Wheeler
	Primary points per 60	ICF/60	IxGF/60	PP P/60
2014	2.14	15.59	0.75	5.34
2015	1.75	16.8	0.86	2.89
2016	2.19	16.86	0.74	3.98
2017	1.46	14.64	0.72	5.12
2018	1.46	14.34	0.59	9.51

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2016 was his best year at 5 on 5 and his primary points/60 have sharply declined since as has his individual chance creation/60 and his individual xGF/60.

You ask we he is scoring really well this season and that is because he is killing it on the PP (His pp per 60 pace is more than double his average the previous 4 seasons) That to me is very unsustainable. His numbers imo are also propped a bit by the sheer talent on this team now.

To me this shows a pretty clear high water mark in 2016 and he's trended down since. He's also not getting any younger so I would expect that trend to continue.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I think the whole salary of the team revolves around Laine. As right now, if he asked for 12 mil it would be hard to say no. If he asks for 9 or less we might be able to keep Wheeler.

 

[KingBogo]

I think the whole salary of the team revolves around Laine. As right now, if he asked for 12 mil it would be hard to say no. If he asks for 9 or less we might be able to keep Wheeler.

I trust Chevy will hold the line with his RFA advantage. No matter what Laine does for the rest of the season he will fall in line with what the market is set at. McDavid set the ceiling. Eichel pegged the next tier for centers. Matthews will come in ahead of Laine due to position. Kucherov probably sets the ceiling for wingers especially being his 3rd contract. Then it gets to the point of how far the kid pushes. He has landed in a pretty nice spot and seems like a humble kid that prefers winning above all else. My guess is a long term contract that most see as very team friendly.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I trust Chevy will hold the line with his RFA advantage. No matter what Laine does for the rest of the season he will fall in line with what the market is set at. McDavid set the ceiling. Eichel pegged the next tier for centers. Matthews will come in ahead of Laine due to position. Kucherov probably sets the ceiling for wingers especially being his 3rd contract. Then it gets to the point of how far the kid pushes. He has landed in a pretty nice spot and seems like a humble kid that prefers winning above all else. My guess is a long term contract that most see as very team friendly.

Ovie gets top dollar and Lanie has 2 goals less.

 

[Aavco Cup]

See below:

Wheeler
	Primary points per 60	ICF/60	IxGF/60	PP P/60
2014	2.14	15.59	0.75	5.34
2015	1.75	16.8	0.86	2.89
2016	2.19	16.86	0.74	3.98
2017	1.46	14.64	0.72	5.12
2018	1.46	14.34	0.59	9.51

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2016 was his best year at 5 on 5 and his primary points/60 have sharply declined since as has his individual chance creation/60 and his individual xGF/60.

You ask we he is scoring really well this season and that is because he is killing it on the PP (His pp per 60 pace is more than double his average the previous 4 seasons) That to me is very unsustainable. His numbers imo are also propped a bit by the sheer talent on this team now.

To me this shows a pretty clear high water mark in 2016 and he's trended down since. He's also not getting any younger so I would expect that trend to continue.

Perhaps his PP production is sustainable as long as the unit he is on remains essentially intact?

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Mathews has 3 injuries this year. I expect he signs long term. Say 8x8.

I expect Laine contract copies Mathews.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I trust Chevy will hold the line with his RFA advantage. No matter what Laine does for the rest of the season he will fall in line with what the market is set at. McDavid set the ceiling. Eichel pegged the next tier for centers. Matthews will come in ahead of Laine due to position. Kucherov probably sets the ceiling for wingers especially being his 3rd contract. Then it gets to the point of how far the kid pushes. He has landed in a pretty nice spot and seems like a humble kid that prefers winning above all else. My guess is a long term contract that most see as very team friendly.

Kucherov may have more points but he does not have more goals and ultimately Imo you pay more for goals than assist. But, if that were true Wheeler would not be getting top dollar as most of his points have been assist this year, what do I know.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

See below:

Wheeler
	Primary points per 60	ICF/60	IxGF/60	PP P/60
2014	2.14	15.59	0.75	5.34
2015	1.75	16.8	0.86	2.89
2016	2.19	16.86	0.74	3.98
2017	1.46	14.64	0.72	5.12
2018	1.46	14.34	0.59	9.51

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2016 was his best year at 5 on 5 and his primary points/60 have sharply declined since as has his individual chance creation/60 and his individual xGF/60.

You ask we he is scoring really well this season and that is because he is killing it on the PP (His pp per 60 pace is more than double his average the previous 4 seasons) That to me is very unsustainable. His numbers imo are also propped a bit by the sheer talent on this team now.

To me this shows a pretty clear high water mark in 2016 and he's trended down since. He's also not getting any younger so I would expect that trend to continue.

I don't accept the devaluation of secondary assists. And PP goals count as much as 5v5 goals. I think it is worthwhile to look at them separately but don't ignore PP goals. ST performance might make up a lot of the difference between good and bad teams and certainly affects our perception of good and bad goaltending.

I am also a little skeptical of the derived stats liked expected GF. That is at least in part because I don't fully understand them. I understand the broad concepts but not the methods used to produce them. Never mind that there seems to be more than one version of some of them. Just like we need to be careful in evaluating a players performance we also need to be careful in using statistical methods that are still in development.

Corsi, I understand. WOWY's, I understand. Wheeler scoring at the highest ppg pace of his career I understand and being tied for the league lead in assists and 8th overall in scoring I understand.

I also understand some healthy skepticism about his performance. Certainly he is benefiting from the all around improvement in the team he is playing for. He is also getting a lot of prime TOI with the best linemates that certainly isn't hurting his scoring. OTOH, having to switch to C from RW for a substantial chunk of the season hasn't helped pad his personal stats.

I'm not debating your point. In fact I am inclined to agree that we may be seeing a bit of a mirage. Not sure though - and your table doesn't help me much.

 

[surixon]

I don't accept the devaluation of secondary assists. And PP goals count as much as 5v5 goals. I think it is worthwhile to look at them separately but don't ignore PP goals. ST performance might make up a lot of the difference between good and bad teams and certainly affects our perception of good and bad goaltending.

I am also a little skeptical of the derived stats liked expected GF. That is at least in part because I don't fully understand them. I understand the broad concepts but not the methods used to produce them. Never mind that there seems to be more than one version of some of them. Just like we need to be careful in evaluating a players performance we also need to be careful in using statistical methods that are still in development.

Corsi, I understand. WOWY's, I understand. Wheeler scoring at the highest ppg pace of his career I understand and being tied for the league lead in assists and 8th overall in scoring I understand.

I also understand some healthy skepticism about his performance. Certainly he is benefiting from the all around improvement in the team he is playing for. He is also getting a lot of prime TOI with the best linemates that certainly isn't hurting his scoring. OTOH, having to switch to C from RW for a substantial chunk of the season hasn't helped pad his personal stats.

I'm not debating your point. In fact I am inclined to agree that we may be seeing a bit of a mirage. Not sure though - and your table doesn't help me much.

Fair enough. I feel his point totals are a lagging indicaor and will fall off over the next few years if he continues his downward trend with regards generating chances. He will likely be pushed out of his role by Laine in a year or two which will also have an impact on his impact. I just feel you can't just asses him and base a contract around his point totals this season as I feel there are enough warning signs to be skeptical he comes close to replicating it ever again.

My point wasn't to say he's bad player. He's still a very good and impactful hockey player but imo he has already peaked as a player at 29 back in 2016. If you really think about it that does represent him peaking about 3 years later than what general trend is in the league. Difficult decisions indeed.

 

[KingBogo]

Kucherov may have more points but he does not have more goals and ultimately Imo you pay more for goals than assist. But, if that were true Wheeler would not be getting top dollar as most of his points have been assist this year, what do I know.

Kucherov has more leverage. He has 1 year before UFA status after next season and is arbitration eligible. Laine has 4 years of team control after next season and does not have arbitration rights. The current CBA is designed to give teams a big negotiating advantage over players early in their careers. Just because teams like Edmonton piss away this advantage doesn't mean other teams do. I would expect something equitable but not back breaking.

 

[KingBogo]

Mathews has 3 injuries this year. I expect he signs long term. Say 8x8.

I expect Laine contract copies Mathews.

Lou work very hard to keep Matthews contract reasonable and I expect Chevy then to use that as a ceiling for Laine. 8 X 8 sounds about right, but probably a little higher.

 

[Weezeric]

I'm thinking Laine gets the draisaitl contract. It would be pretty comparable to the Tarasenko deal with the cap higher now. I also think that's a steal if a deal and wouldn't be upset if he signed for 9-10. He's a beauty.

 

[DRW204]

I'm thinking Laine gets the draisaitl contract. It would be pretty comparable to the Tarasenko deal with the cap higher now. I also think that's a steal if a deal and wouldn't be upset if he signed for 9-10. He's a beauty.

I was thinking that to a while back...however, if Laine wins the Rocket and/or goes off in the playoffs, I would think he exceeds Draisaitl's

 

[robertocarlos]

I think the whole salary of the team revolves around Laine. As right now, if he asked for 12 mil it would be hard to say no. If he asks for 9 or less we might be able to keep Wheeler.

I don't really believe for a minute he will ask for or get 12 million. I'd say 8 million would be fair.

Edit: Saw Stamkos, so maybe 9 million.

Edit: Saw Crosby, so maybe 8 million. He's not getting more than Crosby.

 

[Adam da bomb]

The team will just have to explain if he asks for Draistl money that's fine but then his mentor Wheeler will have to go or he can take less and keep Wheeler.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

I don't really believe for a minute he will ask for or get 12 million. I'd say 8 million would be fair.

Edit: Saw Stamkos, so maybe 9 million.

Edit: Saw Crosby, so maybe 8 million. He's not getting more than Crosby.

Crosby has consistently taken less than market value. No one sets the market by him. Laine might get more more than Crosby even on his 2nd deal. No one has ever used Crosby and his ridiculous discount as comparable.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Lou work very hard to keep Matthews contract reasonable and I expect Chevy then to use that as a ceiling for Laine. 8 X 8 sounds about right, but probably a little higher.

Matthews gets the Eichel deal doncha think? Laine will probably end up somewhere between Draisaitl & that level $8.5-$10M if the term is 8 years.

 

[SLAYER]

Crosby has consistently taken less than market value. No one sets the market by him. Laine might get more more than Crosby even on his 2nd deal. No one has ever used Crosby and his ridiculous discount as comparable.

If Laine wants to win like Crosby, maybe he will do the same

 

[DRW204]

Crosby's deal was 14.5% of the cap at the time and 12 years long. his deal prior to that was 8.7mX5 17.3% of cap

 

[Gm0ney]

Kucherov has more leverage. He has 1 year before UFA status after next season and is arbitration eligible. Laine has 4 years of team control after next season and does not have arbitration rights. The current CBA is designed to give teams a big negotiating advantage over players early in their careers. Just because teams like Edmonton piss away this advantage doesn't mean other teams do. I would expect something equitable but not back breaking.

I think the Jets have to be careful not to squeeze too hard. Anything less than the Draisaitl deal might be a bit of an insult.

And Laine does have some leverage if he choose to exercise it. He can tell the Jets he'd rather play the 3rd year of his ELC and then talk about an extension (if he scores 50+ next year, good luck keeping him under $10M/AAV). If he waits until July 1, 2019 when he's eligible for offer sheets, that potentially puts the Jets in a vulnerable position and would be a significant amount of leverage. He can even go home after his ELC and play for Jokerit in the KHL (I'm sure they'd make it worth his while). Chevy can't just offer him $6.5M x 8 and expect him to sign because he's an RFA.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Fair enough. I feel his point totals are a lagging indicaor and will fall off over the next few years if he continues his downward trend with regards generating chances. He will likely be pushed out of his role by Laine in a year or two which will also have an impact on his impact. I just feel you can't just asses him and base a contract around his point totals this season as I feel there are enough warning signs to be skeptical he comes close to replicating it ever again.

My point wasn't to say he's bad player. He's still a very good and impactful hockey player but imo he has already peaked as a player at 29 back in 2016. If you really think about it that does represent him peaking about 3 years later than what general trend is in the league. Difficult decisions indeed.

Even if you are wrong about his peak your point stands. His production will fall off soon. The eye test says that he is not as prominent when he is not actually scoring as he used to be.

I'd say that he is in that plateau that comes right after the peak. The question is, how long will that plateau last? There are still lots of very good players 3, 4, 5 years older than him. He is seldom injured, or at least not badly enough to keep him out of the lineup. My guess is that he is one of those who will remain good well into his mid thirties. But just a guess.