Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2017-18

Discussion in 'Winnipeg Jets' started by YWGinYYZ, Jul 22, 2017.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
View Users: View Users
  1. YWGinYYZ

    YWGinYYZ RIP Fugu

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2011
    Messages:
    27,511
    Likes Received:
    4,388
    Trophy Points:
    157
    Location:
    Toronto
    Continued from here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2363343

    Some posts to start us off:

     
  2. Bob E

    Bob E Registered User

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2011
    Messages:
    6,485
    Likes Received:
    248
    Trophy Points:
    81
    Location:
    Winnerpeg
    If Little wants and gets $6 mill/yr, I don't see how Wheeler is resigned.

    If Trouba gets $6+ mill/yr, I don't see how Buff is retained in a year or two afterwards.

    This veteran core lineup may look quite a bit different in 2-3 years.
     
  3. Say What

    Say What what say you?

    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2015
    Messages:
    792
    Likes Received:
    38
    Trophy Points:
    36
    Location:
    Peg City
    IMO, I see the Bryan Little contract coming in at 5 years/$29.0625M or 6 years/$33.75 (maybe even $34M -maximum). I believe that TNSE would've started negotiating at
    4 x $6M, expecting that Bryan will opt for term, structure and clauses. :popcorn:

    In my opinion, an extra $375K per (on the open market), is insignificant to someone that believes in the direction of the organization; and those that are running it. Time will tell.
     
  4. mcpw

    mcpw WPG

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2015
    Messages:
    9,886
    Likes Received:
    1,805
    Trophy Points:
    121
    That 5 year contract is ridiculously low, that's like Trouba signing for 6 years, $4.5M AAV. That 6 year contract might not be ridiculous, but still very low, that's 4.75M less than Andrew Ladd's contract, for one less year, when Ladd was coming off 46 points in 78 games and clearly playing worse than usual, while Little scored on a >60 pace for the last 4 seasons straight. There's no forward comparable to Little who has signed a contract like that in the last five years, and while the cap hasn't gone up all that much, it still has gone up.
     
  5. Say What

    Say What what say you?

    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2015
    Messages:
    792
    Likes Received:
    38
    Trophy Points:
    36
    Location:
    Peg City
    Yes, I totally agree. Let's wait and see. ;)
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2017
  6. bumblebeeman

    bumblebeeman Registered User

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2016
    Messages:
    1,039
    Likes Received:
    232
    Trophy Points:
    66
    Maybe a good comparable for Little is Tyler Johnson? Last 4 years they each score 205 points (Little in 26 less games, but his injury concerns should affect his contract value imo). Johnson just signed a 7 year x 5 million a year contract with one rfa season. It could certainly be argued that Little is superior defensively, but he is also older with more injury concerns.
     
  7. mcpw

    mcpw WPG

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2015
    Messages:
    9,886
    Likes Received:
    1,805
    Trophy Points:
    121
    What are those injury concerns with Little? That's a term I'd use for Ladd or Kulikov, who played worse after their last surgery, or Myers, who hasn't played since. Little got injured, healed, then played the rest of the season scoring on a 65-point pace. No reports on lingering stuff like herniae or chronic back issues. After 7 seasons of missing an average of 5 games per season, he appeared in 11 less games than McDavid in the last two seasons.

    Johnson's deal came with only one RFA year, but he only had one team to negotiate with, and he averaged 50 P/82 over the last two seasons, while Little averaged 64 P/82. Seven years 5M would be well below market value for Little.
     
  8. Bob E

    Bob E Registered User

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2011
    Messages:
    6,485
    Likes Received:
    248
    Trophy Points:
    81
    Location:
    Winnerpeg
    If we can sign Little for 4x$5.5-$5.75, wouldn't that deal be done by now. Even at 5 yrs at that aav, the pens at TNSE would be out, imo.

    If they are currently negotiating, Little may want more $, or more term like Ladd got.

    Not mid-August yet. I'm not concerned yet.
     
  9. mcpw

    mcpw WPG

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2015
    Messages:
    9,886
    Likes Received:
    1,805
    Trophy Points:
    121
    It probably would, but why would Little leave $10M or more on the table?
     
  10. ffh

    ffh Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2016
    Messages:
    4,189
    Likes Received:
    1,135
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Little gets 7 years on the open market next summer from a dozen teams at least. We need to do a ladd type of contract with him. And he is worth it. 7x5.5 is what i see it taking to sign him. Dont see him slowing down at all till maybe the last year. Well worth it.
     
  11. FIlove Zadina

    FIlove Zadina @colinhuII

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2014
    Messages:
    3,281
    Likes Received:
    23
    Trophy Points:
    51
    Occupation:
    Student
    Location:
    St. Johns
    unpopular opinion time: if we do not make substantial progress into the playoffs (3rd round/SCF) within 2 years, they should look at moving byfuglien/wheeler/little for more cost effective options/fringe prospects.

    come 2019 assuming every player we re-sign comes in at their expected value or a bit below; we will have over 50% of the salary cap locked up in 7 players. that does not sound bad at all, but only 2 of those players are defenseman, and one of them will be an old, old, dustin byfuglien, who will likely only be a 2nd pair guy at that point; which means that the jets will need to fill 4 defensive slots, with 2 of them being 2nd pair and up guys- which alone costs another 10 mil+.

    what i am saying is, you need to capitalize on those 3 while they are still relatively young. little could fetch a young center prospect like kunin or beauviller or buchnevich or fabbri, someone younger who could conceivably reach little's peak performance at a younger age who we could sign long term for cheaper; wheeler alone could get us a mountain, and byfuglien we could flip to a team for picks+a RHD.

    we are entering the years now where there is no reason for us to not be winning playoff series. anaheim is cap crunching and will crumble soon. LA hasn't been a good team since 2014. chicago is falling, and the only real large threats i see are st louis and nashville. i understand that we might not make it far into the playoffs, but the only way to extend our window is to keep our guys young; not bank on veterans who are going to be 33/34/35.
     
  12. VictoriaJetsFan

    VictoriaJetsFan Registered User

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2013
    Messages:
    2,889
    Likes Received:
    265
    Trophy Points:
    94

    I like this plan, would have moved Buff last year. I think if we miss the playoffs this year I would deal Wheeler.


    I don't see Chicago and Anaheim crumbling yet, but in two years they have enormous struggles. You can't ignore how Dallas has improved as well.
     
  13. KingBogo

    KingBogo Admitted Homer

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2011
    Messages:
    17,621
    Likes Received:
    3,399
    Trophy Points:
    160
    Location:
    Winnipeg
    If it is going to cost $10 M more than a 5 year $5.5-5.75 AAV a deal isn't likely to get done with Little. The Jets need to keep Little at a number starting with 5 otherwise they will need to choose between him and Wheeler.
     
  14. ffh

    ffh Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2016
    Messages:
    4,189
    Likes Received:
    1,135
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Little can play to 36 easy. And will get a contract for 7 years even easier. Doubt he is offered or would ever sign a 5 year contract. Something like 6 or 7 x 5.5 . Top 2 centres at under 12 million works just fine.
     
  15. mcpw

    mcpw WPG

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2015
    Messages:
    9,886
    Likes Received:
    1,805
    Trophy Points:
    121
    Oshie signed 8 x 5.75. That's a number starting with 5. Deal or no deal?
     
  16. KingBogo

    KingBogo Admitted Homer

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2011
    Messages:
    17,621
    Likes Received:
    3,399
    Trophy Points:
    160
    Location:
    Winnipeg
    Deal at 8 X $5.5 AAV. I'd do term with Little over AAV. Only way to keep him and Wheeler on the roster as we start having to pay the big contracts to the younger core.
     
  17. mcpw

    mcpw WPG

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2015
    Messages:
    9,886
    Likes Received:
    1,805
    Trophy Points:
    121
    That's my line of thinking as well (at the moment, could always change, especially once the season starts). One thing to keep in mind is that it might not be necessary to choose between Little and Wheeler in case Trouba won't sign a long-term deal -- the days of the holdouts are surely gone with arbitration rights in place, but there's a chance that Trouba's camp informed Chevy that he won't sign any contract beyond 2020, when Trouba is first eligible for unrestricted FA. In that case, no matter whether he's traded this or next or the 2019 offseason, or any trade deadline, or not at all, we don't have to attach a big cap number to his name.
     
  18. KingBogo

    KingBogo Admitted Homer

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2011
    Messages:
    17,621
    Likes Received:
    3,399
    Trophy Points:
    160
    Location:
    Winnipeg
    True. But keeping your payroll as down as much as possible adds flexibility on what you can take back if you need to move Trouba. Chevy will need to extract as much value as possible if it comes to that.
     
  19. Guffman

    Guffman Unregistered User

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2016
    Messages:
    1,868
    Likes Received:
    850
    Trophy Points:
    94
    I wouldn't call that an unpopular opinion. I agree with that.
     
  20. HannuJ

    HannuJ Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2011
    Messages:
    6,068
    Likes Received:
    1,238
    Trophy Points:
    109
    Location:
    Toronno
    Simple logic.
    Overpay half of your players by $500k each and that's a $5 mil/year player you have to let walk
     
  21. bumblebeeman

    bumblebeeman Registered User

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2016
    Messages:
    1,039
    Likes Received:
    232
    Trophy Points:
    66
    So since Little and Johnson have the same number of points the last 4 years, but Little has a much higher p/82 is because he was hurt more. The fact the he has a higher p/82 shouldn't make him more valuable because his overall impact (measured in points) is the same. I agree tho he doesn't have any chronic injuries, but he is a small player so might be at risk, and hasn't hit 60 games the past two years.

    Anyways I think he'll give a bit of a hometown discount and sign somewhere around 5-6 million a year for 6 years.
     
  22. Gm0ney

    Gm0ney Unicorns salient

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2011
    Messages:
    9,685
    Likes Received:
    1,711
    Trophy Points:
    127
    Location:
    Winnipeg
    Kulikov is overpaid by about $2M by himself.
     
  23. 10Ducky10

    10Ducky10 Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2015
    Messages:
    5,605
    Likes Received:
    1,089
    Trophy Points:
    128
    Rather overpay than do nothing at that spot.
    We were complaining for Chevy to do somehting and we complain when he does it.
    Let's not forget he is only 26 years old and probably wanted a deal for at least 5 years.
     
  24. Jetsetter

    Jetsetter Registered User

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2015
    Messages:
    781
    Likes Received:
    89
    Trophy Points:
    36
    Occupation:
    Hockey expert
    Location:
    Winnerpeg
    Ducky you're right on!!
     
  25. mcpw

    mcpw WPG

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2015
    Messages:
    9,886
    Likes Received:
    1,805
    Trophy Points:
    121
    It does make him more valuable, though. Byfuglien scored more points than McDavid in 15-16 -- a mildly interesting, but pretty useless factoid.
    He's also a UFA. If a team seriously brings up his "injury history", he can always move on and talk to another team. RFA contracts are negotiated, UFA contracts are offered.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "358c248ada348a047a4b9bb27a146148"