Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2020-21 Pt. VI

[SI]

Elliott’s Friedman talked on sports radio 650 - how this offseason and free agency is going to be ugly-

I’m assuming it means even the top players like Hall will see way less term and less AAV. The middle class of the NHL may also get squeezed.

It is not that far fetched to assume that Hall May sign for like 3 years at 6 million AAV.

 

[13th Floor]

Elliott’s Friedman talked on sports radio 650 - how this offseason and free agency is going to be ugly-

I’m assuming it means even the top players like Hall will see way less term and less AAV. The middle class of the NHL may also get squeezed.

It is not that far fetched to assume that Hall May sign for like 3 years at 6 million AAV.

Also partially because he sucks.

 

[DerekKingSnipes]

I am 100% sure Lou wants Ladd LTIRed but as long as he's healthy he won't be. That's why you can't say f**k off to next season. Johnny Boychuck was forced into early retirement because Lou did not think about next season. I am also fully expecting him to reup Cizikas putting us further into the mire.
It's absolutely pointless dreaming of the Islanders trading for good and expensive players at this point.

But Cizikas could be signed for less than he’s making now, something like a 2year and 2mill per which cuts his cap hit 1.25 million. I definitely could see that in this economic environment

 

[IslesNorway]

But Cizikas could be signed for less than he’s making now, something like a 2year and 2mill per which cuts his cap hit 1.25 million. I definitely could see that in this economic environment

Would he take that though?? He's got a good name around the league and should get a better deal than that despite the current climate, but you never know.

 

[MJF]

But Cizikas could be signed for less than he’s making now, something like a 2year and 2mill per which cuts his cap hit 1.25 million. I definitely could see that in this economic environment

If Cizikas would take that kind of pay cut I would bring him back. He is good for us as a 4C.

 

[benedictTavares]

Just put Ladd on the 4th line and let nature take its course

 

[danteipp]

Just put Ladd on the 4th line and let nature take its course

I was hoping they would not only actually play Ladd in the AHL, but double shift him and maybe even make him the third goalie, lol. I assume his legs would last a week, tops.

Ladd got lucky this season that Boychuk went on LTIR and, outside of trading Toews, the Isles did not necessarily need his roster spot or cap space. So he survives another year to hang out and say he is a pro hockey player.

But next year, something needs to be done. It is clear he isn't even AHL quality, or else they would at least use him down there to help support the kids.

He can either collect his next $3 million bonus payment over the summer, leaving $5 million total left on his contract, then retire and take an Isles front office or coaching job. He can recoup his money by collecting let's say $500,000-700,000 in salary, for the next 10+ years, and start his new career.

Or, he can go to LTIR, collect his money and go hang out with his family. You would think that would be more enticing than living in a condo in Bridgeport, away from his family, and riding the buses?

But if he still thinks he is going to play and isn't reasonable, I hope Lou loans him out to the worst AHL or ECHL teams he can find. Send him to Iowa or another undesirable location until he calls it a day.

Maybe some time in midwest cities, known more for car jacking and meth labs than hockey, will help convince him that his playing career is over. I don't begrudge Ladd the money, he should get every penny he is owed, but it seems like he wants to keep the party going as a player, despite everything to the contrary in terms of his declining skill and failing health.

 

[Uncle Duke]

I was hoping they would not only actually play Ladd in the AHL, but double shift him and maybe even make him the third goalie, lol. I assume his legs would last a week, tops.

Ladd got lucky this season that Boychuk went on LTIR and, outside of trading Toews, the Isles did not necessarily need his roster spot or cap space. So he survives another year to hang out and say he is a pro hockey player.

But next year, something needs to be done. It is clear he isn't even AHL quality, or else they would at least use him down there to help support the kids.

He can either collect his next $3 million bonus payment over the summer, leaving $5 million total left on his contract, then retire and take an Isles front office or coaching job. He can recoup his money by collecting let's say $500,000-700,000 in salary, for the next 10+ years, and start his new career.

Or, he can go to LTIR, collect his money and go hang out with his family. You would think that would be more enticing than living in a condo in Bridgeport, away from his family, and riding the buses?

But if he still thinks he is going to play and isn't reasonable, I hope Lou loans him out to the worst AHL or ECHL teams he can find. Send him to Iowa or another undesirable location until he calls it a day.

Maybe some time in midwest cities, known more for car jacking and meth labs than hockey, will help convince him that his playing career is over. I don't begrudge Ladd the money, he should get every penny he is owed, but it seems like he wants to keep the party going as a player, despite everything to the contrary in terms of his declining skill and failing health.

You think he is holding back the team. He thinks the team is holding him back.

 

[LeapOnOver]

The NHLPA will certainly not agree but my opinion is that GMs should just come to their senses. In other words they should stop handing out stupid deals. Every team has at least a couple of these poisonous deals on their books and it doesn't have to involve the NHLPA at all. All it takes is owners introducing a team policy of not signing anyone over 30 to more than 3 years, or not handing out more than 5 years to any UFA, or something along those lines.

Of course, there should be exceptions in exceptional cases for exceptional players, but everyone knew the Ladd deal was dreadful the moment it was made public. Frans Nielsen was just waived, Kyle Okposo is a shadow of his former self and Jeff Skinner is a healthy scratch. Those are just tips of the iceberg.

None of this is ever going to stop. Some team makes a policy like this, then misses out on the reawakening of Eric Staal like what happened in Minnesota, and they'll axe that policy in a heartbeat. Folks who still complain about contracts need to accept it. It's never going to change. This is the norm, and every free agency your shiny new free agent is going to be an overpay. It's the nature of business. Accept it and move on.

 

[Throttle]

None of this is ever going to stop. Some team makes a policy like this, then misses out on the reawakening of Eric Staal like what happened in Minnesota, and they'll axe that policy in a heartbeat. Folks who still complain about contracts need to accept it. It's never going to change. This is the norm, and every free agency your shiny new free agent is going to be an overpay. It's the nature of business. Accept it and move on.

as a fan, of course it is what it is. However, from an owner perspective, the value earned in performance over the life of those contracts is poor, ie. the owner is paying a premium but in most instances not getting the value back. The league would benefit by capping contracts at 5 years.

 

[PWJunior]

as a fan, of course it is what it is. However, from an owner perspective, the value earned in performance over the life of those contracts is poor, ie. the owner is paying a premium but in most instances not getting the value back. The league would benefit by capping contracts at 5 years.

The NHLPA would fight this with every fiber of their being.

 

[Throttle]

The NHLPA would fight this with every fiber of their being.

Of course they would. The game has shifted from aging players making money to the younger players making money. The squeeze is the cap structure that's requiring long term deals for flexibility, however, its going to create volatility and we are going to see players that paid their dues are going to be expendable. That will wear on the PA.

 

[IslesNorway]

Of course they would. The game has shifted from aging players making money to the younger players making money. The squeeze is the cap structure that's requiring long term deals for flexibility, however, its going to create volatility and we are going to see players that paid their dues are going to be expendable. That will wear on the PA.

The shift towards younger players is very important. In the future, most players will be finished by their early 30s and their best days will be in the mid- to late 20s. Both the owners and the PA will need to wake up to this new reality and so do GMs.
The only way the PA will accept lower capped contract lengths is in return for pushing UFA age down. Contracts capped at 5 years - UFA at 25. I'm not saying it's realistic or even desirable, but the reality of the shift towards youngers players dominating the league still hasn't dawned on GMs who keep handing out one horrendous deal after another.

 

[periferal]

So much in here, but I am going to try to streamline my argument -
And will say this - a deal for Duchene during the season is highly unlikely, but here she goes -

1. - Yes - Duchene is still a player maybe not the 8 million $ player the Predators signed, but could still play and be an effective top 6 player. And if Nashville is looking to move Duchene and his price tag out of town, they will undoubtedly need to take back $. Me adding Ladd, Komarov, and Hickey into any deal is me addressing this new financial climate. Fitting Duchene's cap hit is a tall order for any acquiring team, but also the actual dollars that are owed. And this financial detail may not have been a huge factor before Covid, but this is the current financial landscape... these details matter. Duchene makes 10 million next season in order for any team to take that on - some money must go back the other way. For example, Ladd, Komarov, and Ladd would cost the Predators 5 million in actual dollars for the next 2 years... the cap hit combined is still 2 million less than Duchene's 8. The second part to any Duchene deal would be the cost in terms of player and picks and futures... I would package '21 #1, Holmstrom, and possibly '22 2nd - that may not be enough - I get that.

2. - I discussed this subject with @IslesNorway and it is my opinion that I do not believe they have to ship out contracts for trade deadline acquisition - the cap is prorated and I do believe there are opportunities for the Isles to shed and purge salary in the offseason. Bailey could be taken in the expansion draft (I personally think he is a perfect grab for an expansion team like Seattle), they could trade Leddy with only 1 year left on his deal - they most likely only get back a pick or two, and obviously buying out Komarov and Hickey and burying Ladd or LTIR is also another possible scenario for Ladd - it doesn't make sense to buy him out next season may be in the final year of his contract.

* One more comment about this and you may disagree and that is all fine, but if the Isles and Lou feel they can acquire a piece that helps push them over the hump, then I would be an advocate in making that deal - even if it complicates the cap in the offseason because I do see a way out of those cap issues.

The cap isn't prorated - Players salaries are throughout the season. But that is in a normal year. I never saw confirmaiton that players salaries would be prorated this year.

And even if they are, I'm not sure of the math on this, but given Duchene's 8M cap hit and this truncated amount of games, it's possible that he wouldn't fit into our cap until AFTER the trade deadline.

Bottom line on Duchene:

• Other teams could beat any reasonable offer we could make for him.
• Nashville is not taking on one or more of Ladd, Komarov, Hickey, etc to make a deal work without us giving a king's ransom.
• He's not that good of a player that it's worth the trouble.

 

[periferal]

But Cizikas could be signed for less than he’s making now, something like a 2year and 2mill per which cuts his cap hit 1.25 million. I definitely could see that in this economic environment

Isles with 2.8M in cap space for next season.

Sorokin, Pelech, and Beauvillier all need new deals (they're making a combined 5.7M right now and are all getting raises).

Not saying it's not possible, but map out a realistic scenario where Cizikas comes back even at 1.5M/year.

 

[buud]

Isles with 2.8M in cap space for next season.

Sorokin, Pelech, and Beauvillier all need new deals (they're making a combined 5.7M right now and are all getting raises).

Not saying it's not possible, but map out a realistic scenario where Cizikas comes back even at 1.5M/year.

trading Leddy in the off season? buying out Leo? losing Eberle in expansion?

 

[steveat]

Isles with 2.8M in cap space for next season.

Sorokin, Pelech, and Beauvillier all need new deals (they're making a combined 5.7M right now and are all getting raises).

Not saying it's not possible, but map out a realistic scenario where Cizikas comes back even at 1.5M/year.

That's what I thought about Martin this year. We are going to figure out a way. I think we are gonna unload heavily on Seattle.

 

[periferal]

None of this is ever going to stop. Some team makes a policy like this, then misses out on the reawakening of Eric Staal like what happened in Minnesota, and they'll axe that policy in a heartbeat. Folks who still complain about contracts need to accept it. It's never going to change. This is the norm, and every free agency your shiny new free agent is going to be an overpay. It's the nature of business. Accept it and move on.

Correct, but I don't see this as a problem unless your GM is a problem. The best players in the league deserve what they get.

It's the deals like the Ladd deal that can reduce/kill your options of improving the team as we're seeing now. Any deal you give a player he should play up to at least 70-80% of it's worth for it to be a good deal. Anything less than that and you're going to start having trouble.

So it's up to any teams' GM to make sure that when he outbids another team for any player he didn't back his franchise into a corner of more cap taken up than on-ice value produced.

 

[Bill Herlyn]

Technically, the Islanders have 8.8 million in cap space when you include Johnny B's contract on LTIR but any expensive additions will still be very hard to accomplish.

 

[periferal]

trading Leddy in the off season? buying out Leo? losing Eberle in expansion?

Yes - All 3 of those things would open up enough cap space to resign Sorokin, Beauvillier, Pelech, and also Cizikas.

Now...

What kind of a team are you icing next year when this same group loses Leddy and Eberle and don't improve otherwise?

 

[Tahoeblue]

Yes - All 3 of those things would open up enough cap space to resign Sorokin, Beauvillier, Pelech, and also Cizikas.

Now...

What kind of a team are you icing next year when this same group loses Leddy and Eberle and don't improve otherwise?

If your plan is to replace those two with Wally and Bolduc- the answer is not a competitive team.

 

[DerekKingSnipes]

Isles with 2.8M in cap space for next season.

Sorokin, Pelech, and Beauvillier all need new deals (they're making a combined 5.7M right now and are all getting raises).

Not saying it's not possible, but map out a realistic scenario where Cizikas comes back even at 1.5M/year.

You could be right I was thinking how much is Casey really worth on open market, some of that is determined on what kind of rest of season he has also. I also think he probably take discount to stay here as well assuming Isles even want him back. I also think someone like Bailey could be shopped in offseason especially with him not having any movement restriction clauses. I’m thinking they will find ways to get cap space in offseason.

 

[SI]

The cap isn't prorated - Players salaries are throughout the season. But that is in a normal year. I never saw confirmaiton that players salaries would be prorated this year.

And even if they are, I'm not sure of the math on this, but given Duchene's 8M cap hit and this truncated amount of games, it's possible that he wouldn't fit into our cap until AFTER the trade deadline.

Bottom line on Duchene:

• Other teams could beat any reasonable offer we could make for him.
• Nashville is not taking on one or more of Ladd, Komarov, Hickey, etc to make a deal work without us giving a king's ransom.
• He's not that good of a player that it's worth the trouble.

please understand - the Cap hit is prorated when the player is acquired mid season.

it is based on daily cap hit and the number days (Can’t remember the exact number of days in a hockey year).

Duchene’s daily cap hit is 69k based and there is 116 days in the season. If he was traded at the deadline - the acquiring team would be held responsible for the remaining 1.45 cap left.

 

[periferal]

If your plan is to replace those two with Wally and Bolduc- the answer is not a competitive team.

Well it wouldn't be "Cup competitive" and that's the bottom line.

You could be right I was thinking how much is Casey really worth on open market, some of that is determined on what kind of rest of season he has also. I also think he probably take discount to stay here as well assuming Isles even want him back. I also think someone like Bailey could be shopped in offseason especially with him not having any movement restriction clauses. I’m thinking they will find ways to get cap space in offseason.

Not trying to be a jerk about that last comment, but ya think? Of course team is going to be cap compliant by October 2021, but at what cost? For the Isles to just keep their own RFAs they are going to shed some sort of talent

Way too many are just throwing out individual trades/signings they'd like to see without taking the overall Isles cap picture into account. The Isles got "lucky" that Boychuk's contract was able to be put on LTIR. Without it Lou would've had to make an ugly trade last offseason.

This offseason, without a miracle move when Lou fleeces another GM, this offseason we are either going to lose a significant talent (to Seattle, via trade, etc) or Lou is going to have to make an "ugly" trade or two.

But no matter how you slice it the Isles are probably going to have a less talented roster yet again next season and we can just stick our heads in the sand and think all will be fine.

 

[periferal]

please understand - the Cap hit is prorated when the player is acquired mid season.

it is based on daily cap hit and the number days (Can’t remember the exact number of days in a hockey year).

Yes. I understand. Do you...

• Have confirmation that salaries are being pro-rated THIS season. I haven't seen that confirmed anywhere.
• Understand that even if salaries are pro-rated an 8M salary is still going to be too much for us to take on at the trade deadline (much less next season) without significant salary going out the door.