Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2020-21 Pt. VI

[SI]

Well I'm cool with spitballing, but you need to take the whole picture into account.

You're looking a just Duchene's contract and not the fact that he's a productive/valuable player. I'm not a fan and wouldn't want him personally and his 8M a year is an overpay, but as you mentioned he's not Skinner who is basically a zero right now for more money and just as long.

Hickey, Komarov and Ladd aren't zeroes...They are less than zero in terms of value. In total you would be giving up multiple high picks just to get rid of them (without taking anything back).

Then you also don't consider/mention that the Isles would be bidding against other teams who could offer better deals for Nashville.

Also this reply below says it all very well...




Well done here.





Again...To ADD any amount of salary over the next 2 years, Lou is going to have to ship out the same amount of salary or more.

And if we didn't add any additional salary this year we will still have to somehow shed about 10 million this offseason just to be able to resign Beauvillier, Pelech, and Sorokin (and that's with also losing Cizikas for nothing).

I honestly don't think enough people get how bad the Isles cap situation is over this season and next. Sure Lou is going to get us cap compliant before 2021-2022, but the point of it all is...There's really no way to IMPROVE the team until offseason 2022 (and we will most likely be less talented next year).

Here's the best options for Lou to add necessary cap space this offseason:

• Buyout Komarov this summer (1.33M saved)
• Buyout Hickey (833K saved)
• Trade Leddy for a pick (5 million saved)
• Have Seattle take Bailey/Eberle in the expansion draft (5 million saved)
• Hope Sorokin is the goods and trade Varlamov for futures/anything (5 million saved minus the cost of another goalie)
• Instead of resigning Beauvillier, package him with someone like Eberle and maybe another small asset for a better forward up to a 7M annual cap hit. (probably net about 2 million in savings)
• And after all that Lou might have to consider buying out Ladd's deal which will only bring 833K in savings, but might be necessary depending on what other moves are made.

The good news starts to come in the 22-23 season when the cap opens up. Problem is by that time we will need to find replacements for Cizikas, Cluterbuck, Leddy, resign Dobson, and resign Pulock (or lose him to UFA - Which CANNOT happen).

That said until 22-23 it's going to be basically this team (or worse) depending on if Lou can abuse another GM in a deal somehow.

So much in here, but I am going to try to streamline my argument -
And will say this - a deal for Duchene during the season is highly unlikely, but here she goes -

1. - Yes - Duchene is still a player maybe not the 8 million $ player the Predators signed, but could still play and be an effective top 6 player. And if Nashville is looking to move Duchene and his price tag out of town, they will undoubtedly need to take back $. Me adding Ladd, Komarov, and Hickey into any deal is me addressing this new financial climate. Fitting Duchene's cap hit is a tall order for any acquiring team, but also the actual dollars that are owed. And this financial detail may not have been a huge factor before Covid, but this is the current financial landscape... these details matter. Duchene makes 10 million next season in order for any team to take that on - some money must go back the other way. For example, Ladd, Komarov, and Ladd would cost the Predators 5 million in actual dollars for the next 2 years... the cap hit combined is still 2 million less than Duchene's 8. The second part to any Duchene deal would be the cost in terms of player and picks and futures... I would package '21 #1, Holmstrom, and possibly '22 2nd - that may not be enough - I get that.

2. - I discussed this subject with @IslesNorway and it is my opinion that I do not believe they have to ship out contracts for trade deadline acquisition - the cap is prorated and I do believe there are opportunities for the Isles to shed and purge salary in the offseason. Bailey could be taken in the expansion draft (I personally think he is a perfect grab for an expansion team like Seattle), they could trade Leddy with only 1 year left on his deal - they most likely only get back a pick or two, and obviously buying out Komarov and Hickey and burying Ladd or LTIR is also another possible scenario for Ladd - it doesn't make sense to buy him out next season may be in the final year of his contract.

* One more comment about this and you may disagree and that is all fine, but if the Isles and Lou feel they can acquire a piece that helps push them over the hump, then I would be an advocate in making that deal - even if it complicates the cap in the offseason because I do see a way out of those cap issues.

 

[SI]

With respect to the discussion of potentially buying out Leo and/or Hickey in the summer, I could understand maybe buying out Hickey but not Leo.

By buying out Hickey, the Isles would have a cap savings of $1,666,667 in 2021-22 but be on the hook for $833,333 in 2022-23.

By burying Hickey in the AHL again next season, they would only free up $1,125,000 - of course that would be the end of the deal - with no cap carryover for any additional seasons. So it might make sense buying out Hickey, if all else fails.

As for Leo, the Isles would save $1,333,333 in 2021-22 but have an additional cap charge of $666,667 in 2022-23. To me, it makes more sense to just bury Leo and get the $1,125,000 savings vs. buying him out. It probably isn't worth the difference in the cap hit for 2021-22 to carry over a hit into 2022-23.

That is just my initial opinion right now, a lot can change of course, since every $$$ will be important for the next couple seasons.

You are right, but that 333K is almost half another player's contract and maybe what is needed to get everyone signed. But we will see.

 

[danteipp]

You are right, but that 333K is almost half another player's contract and maybe what is needed to get everyone signed. But we will see.

I hear you and we are definitely in agreement that every cap dollar is going to be important to the Isles for the next two seasons.

I believe the cap difference between buyout vs. AHL bury only works out to $208,333 saved in 2021-22 with the additional cap charge of $667,667 in 2022-23, right?

If so, I would rather make every reasonable effort to bite the bullet, bury Leo in the AHL and even run a short roster at times to bank some cap space.

 

[SI]

I hear you and we are definitely in agreement that every cap dollar is going to be important to the Isles for the next two seasons.

I believe the cap difference between buyout vs. AHL bury only works out to $208,333 saved in 2021-22 with the additional cap charge of $667,667 in 2022-23, right?

If so, I would rather make every reasonable effort to bite the bullet, bury Leo in the AHL and even run a short roster at times to bank some cap space.

You are correct if Komarov is buried the cap hit would 1.875 vs. 1.667

 

[SI]

I hear you and we are definitely in agreement that every cap dollar is going to be important to the Isles for the next two seasons.

I believe the cap difference between buyout vs. AHL bury only works out to $208,333 saved in 2021-22 with the additional cap charge of $667,667 in 2022-23, right?

If so, I would rather make every reasonable effort to bite the bullet, bury Leo in the AHL and even run a short roster at times to bank some cap space.

I think Jake Debrusk's deal could be a good comparison Beauvillier's next contract and Adam Pelech will get somewhere between 4.2 to 5 the max.
Ladd and the LTIR thing comes back into discussion - I really struggle to see how he plays another game.
If he does get LTIR, and no one with any significant salary is taken in expansion (i.e. Bailey or Leddy), then Isles have roughly about 5.5 million to play with-
They could go with 2.5 to Cizikas and 3 to someone like Palmieiri (Craig Smith being the comparison there) or try to land Hoffman or Hall with the extra dough and sign a cheaper 4C - like Lucas Wallmark or a Nate Thompson type.

 

[Throttle]

Skinner is a healthy scratch on a last place team. Why would you want him at any price.

This is the same fan base that advocated for Galchenyuk...after his 18th team.

 

[IslesNorway]

So much in here, but I am going to try to streamline my argument -
And will say this - a deal for Duchene during the season is highly unlikely, but here she goes -

1. - Yes - Duchene is still a player maybe not the 8 million $ player the Predators signed, but could still play and be an effective top 6 player. And if Nashville is looking to move Duchene and his price tag out of town, they will undoubtedly need to take back $. Me adding Ladd, Komarov, and Hickey into any deal is me addressing this new financial climate. Fitting Duchene's cap hit is a tall order for any acquiring team, but also the actual dollars that are owed. And this financial detail may not have been a huge factor before Covid, but this is the current financial landscape... these details matter. Duchene makes 10 million next season in order for any team to take that on - some money must go back the other way. For example, Ladd, Komarov, and Ladd would cost the Predators 5 million in actual dollars for the next 2 years... the cap hit combined is still 2 million less than Duchene's 8. The second part to any Duchene deal would be the cost in terms of player and picks and futures... I would package '21 #1, Holmstrom, and possibly '22 2nd - that may not be enough - I get that.

2. - I discussed this subject with @IslesNorway and it is my opinion that I do not believe they have to ship out contracts for trade deadline acquisition - the cap is prorated and I do believe there are opportunities for the Isles to shed and purge salary in the offseason. Bailey could be taken in the expansion draft (I personally think he is a perfect grab for an expansion team like Seattle), they could trade Leddy with only 1 year left on his deal - they most likely only get back a pick or two, and obviously buying out Komarov and Hickey and burying Ladd or LTIR is also another possible scenario for Ladd - it doesn't make sense to buy him out next season may be in the final year of his contract.

* One more comment about this and you may disagree and that is all fine, but if the Isles and Lou feel they can acquire a piece that helps push them over the hump, then I would be an advocate in making that deal - even if it complicates the cap in the offseason because I do see a way out of those cap issues.

But that still doesn't take away the fact they are useless players and with their cap hits being higher than their actual salaries that is even more negative because it takes away cap space that could be used for an actual player or two. If any team remotely wanted them they'd been snagged off waivers. Plenty of decent players on waivers this year and no one getting picked up due to their deals, not because they're not half decent players. I do know their actual wages are lower, and that is a plus but in a world the cap space is paramount, that matters the most. Isles are stuck with them unless they trade them for another team's crap.

Secondly, even if the cap is prorated that might allow the Isles a slight add at the deadline, but it's about more than that. It's about the future. The Islanders are still stuck with several (fairly bad) long term deals that may haunt the team for years to come and they won't go away. Heck, they even signed Matt Martin to another 4 years!
You need to realize that there is no future room on the Islanders for any major acquisition unless a similar big contract is moved out - it's only way.

And then Seattle. ALL teams will be looking to offload their crap contracts on them. Every single one. And they will make out like bandits. It's not as easy as saying "they may take Bailey or Eberle" because they may equally well take Vande Sompel or Johnston and we get no relief. The Islanders are in such a bad spot capwise they may well have to PAY to have them take a good player (ie. Ladd, Bailey or Eberle) just to ease out cap constrains. Imagine that. Paying Seattle a 1st or 2nd rounder just to have them relieve us of Josh Bailey....That's the reality of the situation.
Paying them to take Ladd would require a king's ransom of several 1sts and top prospects and deplete our already thin prospect pool. It's simply not sustainable.

Seattle will have some superb players coming their way just because of the cap situation around the league and they will manage the cap from nothing so it will be easy. No long term contracts, desirable location etc. They'll be fine

Finally, Ladd will most likely be given the Boychuck treatment, where Uncle Lou gives him an offer he can't refuse: retire due to a mysterious injury or ride the buses of the AHL or beyond for the rest of your career. Only retirement will provide the cap relief and Ladd will pay the price for Lou's terrible contract dealings.

In the future, shorter deals must become the norm - 2, 3, 4 years max for UFAs or extensions.

 

[NickyP76]

Forsberg is a pipe dream. I think Devils will keep Palmieri, Arvidsson is a realistic and ideal target.

Lee Barzal Arvidsson

Beau Nelson Eberle

Bailey Pageau Wahlstrom

Martin Cizikas Clutter.

The simple addition of someone like Arvidsson deepens the lineup so much more. I also would like to see Bailey on a line feeding 2 shooters in Pager & Wahlstrom.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

The thing about Hickey that no-one seems to be mentioning/remembering is that he's a strong breeze away from his next concussion.

I just don't think he plays any role in the planning whatsoever - not for us or on the trade front.

 

[Uncle Duke]

The thing about Hickey that no-one seems to be mentioning/remembering is that he's a strong breeze away from his next concussion.

I just don't think he plays any role in the planning whatsoever - not for us or on the trade front.

I think 99% of us get that Hickey has no future in the NHL but that doesn't stop people from conjuring up unrealistic trade scenarios that would turn chicken shit into slightly less odious chicken shit. And as long as he is on the books, he does play a role in planning whether we like it or not.

 

[crashthenet]

Wonder if a Bellows/Leo trade to the Hawks would work? Take Carpenter back. Something like that.

 

[MJF]

Skinner is a healthy scratch on a last place team. Why would you want him at any price.

Amen.

 

[Uncle Duke]

...................

Finally, Ladd will most likely be given the Boychuck treatment, where Uncle Lou gives him an offer he can't refuse: retire due to a mysterious injury or ride the buses of the AHL or beyond for the rest of your career. Only retirement will provide the cap relief and Ladd will pay the price for Lou's terrible contract dealings.

In the future, shorter deals must become the norm - 2, 3, 4 years max for UFAs or extensions.

I agree with most all of your post, but if it was that easy to get rid of Ladd wouldn't it have happened already? I mean he already rode the buses last season and didn't flinch as far as we know and $5.5M is a pretty nice payday regardless of work conditions.

As to the bolded, I assume you mean league wide?

 

[PK Cronin]

I agree with most all of your post, but if it was that easy to get rid of Ladd wouldn't it have happened already? I mean he already rode the buses last season and didn't flinch as far as we know and $5.5M is a pretty nice payday regardless of work conditions.

As to the bolded, I assume you mean league wide?

I'm hoping that the expansion draft provides more trading opportunities to wiggle out of some bad contracts. Not saying it'll be easy, but with teams looking to shift pieces around to protect certain assets there's a greater possibility something could be worked out. I was very hopeful LTIR would happen for Ladd based off a poster here who doesn't just throw shit at the wall, but that obviously didn't happen. Not sure it will now.

 

[SI]

But that still doesn't take away the fact they are useless players and with their cap hits being higher than their actual salaries that is even more negative because it takes away cap space that could be used for an actual player or two. If any team remotely wanted them they'd been snagged off waivers. Plenty of decent players on waivers this year and no one getting picked up due to their deals, not because they're not half decent players. I do know their actual wages are lower, and that is a plus but in a world the cap space is paramount, that matters the most. Isles are stuck with them unless they trade them for another team's crap.

Secondly, even if the cap is prorated that might allow the Isles a slight add at the deadline, but it's about more than that. It's about the future. The Islanders are still stuck with several (fairly bad) long term deals that may haunt the team for years to come and they won't go away. Heck, they even signed Matt Martin to another 4 years!
You need to realize that there is no future room on the Islanders for any major acquisition unless a similar big contract is moved out - it's only way.

And then Seattle. ALL teams will be looking to offload their crap contracts on them. Every single one. And they will make out like bandits. It's not as easy as saying "they may take Bailey or Eberle" because they may equally well take Vande Sompel or Johnston and we get no relief. The Islanders are in such a bad spot capwise they may well have to PAY to have them take a good player (ie. Ladd, Bailey or Eberle) just to ease out cap constrains. Imagine that. Paying Seattle a 1st or 2nd rounder just to have them relieve us of Josh Bailey....That's the reality of the situation.
Paying them to take Ladd would require a king's ransom of several 1sts and top prospects and deplete our already thin prospect pool. It's simply not sustainable.

Seattle will have some superb players coming their way just because of the cap situation around the league and they will manage the cap from nothing so it will be easy. No long term contracts, desirable location etc. They'll be fine

Finally, Ladd will most likely be given the Boychuck treatment, where Uncle Lou gives him an offer he can't refuse: retire due to a mysterious injury or ride the buses of the AHL or beyond for the rest of your career. Only retirement will provide the cap relief and Ladd will pay the price for Lou's terrible contract dealings.

In the future, shorter deals must become the norm - 2, 3, 4 years max for UFAs or extensions.

When did I ever mention Hickey, Komarov, and Ladd are desirable players? They are in the deal to offset the $! No acquiring team for Duchene will take on the entire commitment - Nashville will have to take some $ back. Those players will be bought out immediately and not take roster spots. Nashville would be ina rebuild - they wouldn’t be looking to spend up to cap. Last i’ll say on this, because we obviously are going around in circles.

Again on adding at the deadline - you add if you think that piece gives u a chance to win it all - f*** the cap in the offseason. BECAUSE of the ability to put Ladd On LTIR - which you agree with based on your last statements. If he is Put on LTIR and with no one being taken by Seattle with significant $ and Hickey is bought out and Komarov buried That would leave almost 5.5 million in cap space! That is with Beau and Pelech signed.

 

[crashthenet]

Julien fired. wow.

eff Muller btw

 

[Tahoeblue]

Julien fired. wow.

eff Muller btw

Yep- a smile came across my face when I heard Muller was shown the door too.

 

[SI]

Yep- a smile came across my face when I heard Muller was shown the door too.

did he cry?

 

[IslesNorway]

When did I ever mention Hickey, Komarov, and Ladd are desirable players? They are in the deal to offset the $! No acquiring team for Duchene will take on the entire commitment - Nashville will have to take some $. Those players will be bought out immediately and not take roster spots. Nashville would be ina rebuild - they wouldn’t be looking to spend up to cap. Last i’ll say on this, because we obviously are going around in circles.

Again on adding at the deadline - you add if you think that piece gives u a chance to win it all - f*** the cap in the offseason. BECAUSE of the ability to put Ladd On LTIR - which you agree with based on your last statements. If he is Put on LTIR and with no one being taken by Seattle with significant $ and Hickey is bought out and Komarov buried That would leave almost 5.5 million in cap space! That is with Beau and Pelech signed.

I am 100% sure Lou wants Ladd LTIRed but as long as he's healthy he won't be. That's why you can't say f**k off to next season. Johnny Boychuck was forced into early retirement because Lou did not think about next season. I am also fully expecting him to reup Cizikas putting us further into the mire.
It's absolutely pointless dreaming of the Islanders trading for good and expensive players at this point.

 

[IslesNorway]

I agree with most all of your post, but if it was that easy to get rid of Ladd wouldn't it have happened already? I mean he already rode the buses last season and didn't flinch as far as we know and $5.5M is a pretty nice payday regardless of work conditions.

As to the bolded, I assume you mean league wide?

Both. GMs need to wake up and smell the carcasses of players before they decompose...
The contracts handed out in free agency are often atrociously bad yet it's allowed to continue year after year

 

[Tahoeblue]

Forsberg is a pipe dream. I think Devils will keep Palmieri, Arvidsson is a realistic and ideal target.

Lee Barzal Arvidsson

Beau Nelson Eberle

Bailey Pageau Wahlstrom

Martin Cizikas Clutter.

The simple addition of someone like Arvidsson deepens the lineup so much more. I also would like to see Bailey on a line feeding 2 shooters in Pager & Wahlstrom.

That's a solid lineup. Arvidsson would be an ideal candidate to go after. Maybe his value isn't as high as he only has 2 goals, but has shown he does have a scoring touch, so MAYBE the cost isn't a haul. The problem is like many have stated here before is we don't have many quality assets to give. This team is handcuffed by the cap and we want to keep together the trio of Sorokin, Wally, and Dobson. Plus, Lou would be competing with many other teams looking for an upgrade and the Preds can take their time.

Impossible, no, difficult, yes. Lou needs to be creative and stay away from the shuffleboard at Del Boca Vista for a few days.

 

[IslesNorway]

That's a solid lineup. Arvidsson would be an ideal candidate to go after. Maybe his value isn't as high as he only has 2 goals, but has shown he does have a scoring touch, so MAYBE the cost isn't a haul. The problem is like many have stated here before is we don't have many quality assets to give. This team is handcuffed by the cap and we want to keep together the trio of Sorokin, Wally, and Dobson. Plus, Lou would be competing with many other teams looking for an upgrade and the Preds can take their time.

Impossible, no, difficult, yes. Lou needs to be creative and stay away from the shuffleboard at Del Boca Vista for a few days.

Judging by his numbers alone, Arvidsson seems a risky player to acquire. I must admit not having watched him much but when a player's point production is cut in half from one season to the next, and then keeps on dropping the following season it's buyer beware!! You don't really want to be on the hook for another three years then.

 

[Uncle Duke]

Both. GMs need to wake up and smell the carcasses of players before they decompose...
The contracts handed out in free agency are often atrociously bad yet it's allowed to continue year after year

I certainly agree with you in principle but I doubt the NHLPA will go for that and I suspect that once Covid is over and three years from now when the league is making money again it will all be forgotten and back to "normal" (people have disturbingly short memories). The few things that won't go back to the way they were IMO will be adverts on helmets (and prob sweaters) and I do think we will see a continuation of b2bs against the same team in the same city to cut down on travel costs.

 

[IslesNorway]

I certainly agree with you in principle but I doubt the NHLPA will go for that and I suspect that once Covid is over and three years from now when the league is making money again it will all be forgotten and back to "normal" (people have disturbingly short memories). The few things that won't go back to the way they were IMO will be adverts on helmets (and prob sweaters) and I do think we will see a continuation of b2bs against the same team in the same city to cut down on travel costs.

The NHLPA will certainly not agree but my opinion is that GMs should just come to their senses. In other words they should stop handing out stupid deals. Every team has at least a couple of these poisonous deals on their books and it doesn't have to involve the NHLPA at all. All it takes is owners introducing a team policy of not signing anyone over 30 to more than 3 years, or not handing out more than 5 years to any UFA, or something along those lines.

Of course, there should be exceptions in exceptional cases for exceptional players, but everyone knew the Ladd deal was dreadful the moment it was made public. Frans Nielsen was just waived, Kyle Okposo is a shadow of his former self and Jeff Skinner is a healthy scratch. Those are just tips of the iceberg.

 

[Uncle Duke]

The NHLPA will certainly not agree but my opinion is that GMs should just come to their senses. In other words they should stop handing out stupid deals. Every team has at least a couple of these poisonous deals on their books and it doesn't have to involve the NHLPA at all. All it takes is owners introducing a team policy of not signing anyone over 30 to more than 3 years, or not handing out more than 5 years to any UFA, or something along those lines.

Of course, there should be exceptions in exceptional cases for exceptional players, but everyone knew the Ladd deal was dreadful the moment it was made public. Frans Nielsen was just waived, Kyle Okposo is a shadow of his former self and Jeff Skinner is a healthy scratch. Those are just tips of the iceberg.

I don't know how old you are or if you have always lived in Norway or if you are a baseball fan at all, but back in the 80s there was a "collusion" scandal where MLB owners got together and decided to enact roster and pay rules that were outside of the collective bargaining agreement with the players. A "gentleman's agreement" if you will. They were guilty of course but I don't recall if it was actually litigated in court or whether it was settled out of court, but I know that the settlement ended up costing the owners a ton of dough and they had to agree to expand. The point is, decisions such as the ones you propose would certainly be considered collusion were they to occur, and it just so happens that Donald Fehr, the current NHLPA guy, was the MLBPA guy when the owners were found guilty of collusion, in large part because of Fehr's tenacity.