Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2019-20 Pt. IX: Bubble Hockey

[The Winter Soldier]

Who are likely trading partners for Lou? Do you speculate based on history or available cap space? I am likely doing the same as everyone else in looking at cap space. There are several teams that have rosters that leave you shaking your head. Buffalo, Detriot and LA in particular.

That's the thing about Lou, the cone of silence will be down. Sort of like out of nowhere the Pageau and Greene trades went down. They will just hit you. The Schneider trade at the draft was very similar too. All we can do is speculate, Lou wants to create cap room, and there is a need for a game braking winger. I do get the feeling Bailey may be in play and one of the D to be traded. As for Ladd, we will see if the goes on LTIR or some type of disapearance.

 

[Easternbull]

IMHO the reason Patrik Laine had a "down" year in the 18-19 season was because he was completely heartbroken and felt letdown by his coach, due to the fact that he was still playing on the second line with Brian Little after scoring 44 goals the preavious season and nothing changed after his 18 goals in november, still no shot at the sline with mr Scheiffele.

He was bummed about thisbeing forced to lay with a center whom he has had ZERO chemistry with and still being a kid 2o years old, sulked and it showed in his subpar 30 goal season.



IMHO Patrik is not chasing the big ticket and is looking to get a chance to play on the first line night after night and he wants to be on th eice when the game is on the line.

The reason the jets are almost forced to move him now, is because there is no way he will resign with them after Paul Maurice just receiving a long extension, despite the teams downward spiral. If they don't trade him now they will be in the same situation as with Jacob Trouba a few years ago.

Winnipeg is not a free agent magnet, and the only way for the jets to contend again is to trade or draft well. Ehler sis also an elite winger IMHO, but signed long term for the remaning window the jets have a shot at contending, while Scheiffeel and Hellybuckare still signed and relatively young.

Add to this the fact that 55 and 26 refuse to play with anyone else and you have the present situation.

 

[Skip To My Lou]

I was extremely down on Laine last year. He had no commitment to any part of the game besides scoring. The kid is incredibly gifted but the lack of commitment last year was infuriating.

This year was a massive change. Laine was a completely different player. I saw board play, I saw him throwing the body around, he was dishing the puck, being patient and waiting for the right plays. He was a beast, and was going to get 30 goals again had the season not shut down.

I gotta say though, it would be incredibly irresponsible if Winnipeg decided to trade their still-developing superstar (unless he has told them he wants out, which I don't think he has). This is their future, and should not be looking elsewhere for him.

 

[CREW99AW]

I understand what you mean, with cap hit being less important than actual cash needed to pay out. Moving Boychuk could be easier now because if we pay his signing bonus, he's a $1,250,000 player this year and $4 million next year guy... so it's moveable.

But the problem we are going to face with our cap challenges is that every team in the league is in virtually the exact same boat: EVERYONE needs to clear salary and almost everyone needs to clear cap space, too.

We're in a crunch because we've got Barzal, Pulock, Toews who need raises; and we've only got $8.2 million to fit that. It's "tight" for the Islanders, and there are 13 teams with less cap space than us. Of the 18 with more space.. most everyone else has their RFAs that are due significant raises AND they have to replace people and the cap is flat.

Inflation on all the RFAs in hockey will basically take up all the available cap space in the league... so EVERYONE is going to look to go in-house first and then see what's out there.

The main positive is, yes, we would have a much easier time moving Boychuk because his salary vs cap hit has value. But the downside is that the teams we're calling to offer that value to are going to have similar offers from 10 other clubs and you're going to have to pay a premium to have them pick your offer. It's very much like the Vegas expansion draft situation, where we paid a ransom to keep all of Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey, Ryan Strome, Calvin de Haan, Scott Mayfield and Jaro Halak.

A few GMs are quoted in the article below. Several teams are likely to be at the cap fl. My concern is the comment from Winnipeg's GM, that some quality RFAs will not be qualified because teams will not be able to afford them. This could muddy the waters when dangling Boychuk's remaining $1.25m 2020-2021 salary. I am hoping some GM is tempted by that salary and may even see Boychuk as a possible TDL chip for next season's TDL
To be free of Boychuk's cap hit, I would be happy with a late pick or even future considerations.


NHL GMs preparing for new economic realities brought on by COVID-19
Winnipeg Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff said he expects to see some restricted free agents across the league who would have normally been tagged with qualifying offers cut loose.

 

[CREW99AW]

Who are likely trading partners for Lou? Do you speculate based on history or available cap space? I am likely doing the same as everyone else in looking at cap space. There are several teams that have rosters that leave you shaking your head. Buffalo, Detriot and LA in particular.

Isles should also be looking at teams who will be in financial distress and want to play cap fl tricks: have a high caphit, but have a lower salary so they limit the cash they pay out.
It will be ironic if it turns out easier to move the older Boychuk, then Leddy. Boychuk's contract was heavily front loaded and has little cash left to be payed out. Leddy's contract is back loaded and will likely mean eating some salary if they try to move him.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

I think there are going to be a very small amount of suiters for high cap and low salary. Maybe next year after teams have more time to plan but looking at the landscape now every team is close.

 

[steveat]

I find it's easier to trade a cap dump when it's the last year of the contract. a lot of our cap dumps have 2-3 years still under contract.

 

[CREW99AW]

I think there are going to be a very small amount of suiters for high cap and low salary. Maybe next year after teams have more time to plan but looking at the landscape now every team is close.

GMs and hockey pundits are saying that COVID-19 has upended the landscape,that there will be teams in danger of having to be sold and quality rfas that teams will walk away from because of financial issues. I would look to a team desperate for low salaries as a possible Boychuk landing spot. Cannot get much lower than his remaining $1.25m 2020-2021 salary.

another possible trade partner could be NJ ,with their bad defense . Boychuk could bring veteran leadership and he would stay local, keeping him from uprooting his family and increasing the chance he waived for them.

 

[Tahoeblue]

Hall/Barzy/Eberle would certainly be an interesting line.

NHL radio was talking about Hall possibly taking a shorter deal to boost his numbers and set himself up for a larger contract in a few years and when teams have money to spend. He has earned over 44 million in his career and has been on bad teams and has seen the playoffs only a handful of times. This would be shrewd Lou at his best. Maybe Hall would sign to play with his buddy and get a shot at the cup. Dare I say this team has migrated into "contender" category???

 

[periferal]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/examining-nhls-top-14-buyout-candidates-2020/




Examining the NHL’s top 14 buyout candidates of 2020

​

#16
Andrew Ladd
Left Wing
Maple Ridge, BC

That Ladd was nearly dealt to Minnesota at the trade deadline in a complicated transaction for Zach Parise is a strong indication of how the organization views the veteran.

Ladd, 34, is just 50 games away from joining the NHL’s 1,000-game club. He did score 11 goals in 34 appearances with AHL Bridgeport this season, and once in his four Islanders games. Perhaps, at a reasonable cap hit, he could play a valuable bottom-six role.

But the Maple Ridge, B.C., native is still making money in line with his 20-goal, 60-point Winnipeg days of 2014-15. And in the coming months, GM Lou Lamoriello will need to add about three zeros to Mathew Barzal’s salary and find a way to keep RFA defenders Ryan Pulock and Devon Toews.

The savings on a Ladd buyout would not be great — he’d still be a $4.8-million hit the next three seasons — but every dollar counts in a flat-cap world.

(Another buyout candidate on the Island: Leo Komarov.)

 

[Kevin27NYI]

GMs and hockey pundits are saying that COVID-19 has upended the landscape,that there will be teams in danger of having to be sold and quality rfas that teams will walk away from because of financial issues. I would look to a team desperate for low salaries as a possible Boychuk landing spot. Cannot get much lower than his remaining $1.25m 2020-2021 salary.

another possible trade partner could be NJ ,with their bad defense . Boychuk could bring veteran leadership and he would stay local, keeping him from uprooting his family and increasing the chance he waived for them.

We'll see, I just think it's a 'buyers market' for the Boychuk type of contracts. We'll see what shakes through.

I am curious to see it all play out, seems obvious that one of Boychuk or Leddy will go. Also seems like the Parise connection could still be there if Ladd is on the table regardless of the flat cap.

 

[PK Cronin]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/examining-nhls-top-14-buyout-candidates-2020/




Examining the NHL’s top 14 buyout candidates of 2020

​

#16
Andrew Ladd
Left Wing
Maple Ridge, BC

That Ladd was nearly dealt to Minnesota at the trade deadline in a complicated transaction for Zach Parise is a strong indication of how the organization views the veteran.

Ladd, 34, is just 50 games away from joining the NHL’s 1,000-game club. He did score 11 goals in 34 appearances with AHL Bridgeport this season, and once in his four Islanders games. Perhaps, at a reasonable cap hit, he could play a valuable bottom-six role.

But the Maple Ridge, B.C., native is still making money in line with his 20-goal, 60-point Winnipeg days of 2014-15. And in the coming months, GM Lou Lamoriello will need to add about three zeros to Mathew Barzal’s salary and find a way to keep RFA defenders Ryan Pulock and Devon Toews.

The savings on a Ladd buyout would not be great — he’d still be a $4.8-million hit the next three seasons — but every dollar counts in a flat-cap world.

(Another buyout candidate on the Island: Leo Komarov.)

It would be insane to buy Ladd out. Komarov is easily the better candidate. It saves more cap space for the team and is much more manageable long term. I think even buying out Boychuk would save more cap space (not that I'd buy him out).

 

[periferal]

I think all this Laine talk is really just a waste of time. Regardless if you want/don't want him, do you realize the cost to get him? Think Dobson and a 1st and probably something else.

Oh and then how are we fitting him into our cap? To resign Barzal, Toews, Pulock, and then add Laine would require getting rid of Boychuk, Leddy, and Ladd's contracts without adding any salary. So in addition to giving up 2-3 top assets for Laine then we'd need to give up another top asset to get rid of Ladd.

And then after next season Pelech, Beauvillier, Sorokin, and Laine would need new contracts with probably about 7 million of cap space.

At some point we're just going to have to admit that snow left us with a horribly constructed roster/cap situation and that we may have to be mediocre for a few years until it clears up. Otherwise we're going to put bad debt after bad debt with no farm system which could lead to some very dark years when a total rebuild is needed.

The other option is to trade the young guys who truly have value (Barzal, Beauvillier, Pelech, etc) which would probably replenish our picks/prospects, get our cap under control (which could also allow us to bid on good players from teams in bad cap situations), and set us up for better success in 2-3 years, but I know that's basically a non-starter for most around here.

 

[periferal]

It would be insane to buy Ladd out. Komarov is easily the better candidate. It saves more cap space for the team and is much more manageable long term. I think even buying out Boychuk would save more cap space (not that I'd buy him out).

I totally agree. Was just posting the article.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

If, and that's a big if, we are confident that Dobson can grow into a top pair RD, I'd consider a Pulock for Laine base.

Big risk trade for big reward.

There will be a year or two of regression as there will be growing pains for the defense, but could set us up well in the future.

Barzal with Laine on the first line.

Pelech, Dobson, Toews and Mayfield/Wilde top-4 D.

 

[SI]

It would be insane to buy Ladd out. Komarov is easily the better candidate. It saves more cap space for the team and is much more manageable long term. I think even buying out Boychuk would save more cap space (not that I'd buy him out).

Because of the bonuses - it makes more sense to bury Ladd (4.425 vs. 4.833 buyout) and Komarov (1.95 vs. 2.1 buyout).

Now, it does complicate Bridgeport, since you cannot have more than 3 or 4 players with that much NHL games on their resume.

It's going to take some ingenuity

 

[PK Cronin]

If, and that's a big if, we are confident that Dobson can grow into a top pair RD, I'd consider a Pulock for Laine base.

Big risk trade for big reward.

There will be a year or two of regression as there will be growing pains for the defense, but could set us up well in the future.

Barzal with Laine on the first line.

Pelech, Dobson, Toews and Mayfield/Wilde top-4 D.

Sometimes taking a step back is the only way to move forward. I wouldn't be upset with any move that just holds the status quo or has the team taking a slight step back to help make way for important moves later.

 

[SI]

If, and that's a big if, we are confident that Dobson can grow into a top pair RD, I'd consider a Pulock for Laine base.

Big risk trade for big reward.

There will be a year or two of regression as there will be growing pains for the defense, but could set us up well in the future.

Barzal with Laine on the first line.

Pelech, Dobson, Toews and Mayfield/Wilde top-4 D.

I agree with this - Dobson is a non starter for any deal for Laine, because of the finances involved.

If there is a reality where Laine is an Islander this offseason, then it will come at the cost of Pulock.
Pulock is a Manitoba boy and would be playing in his home province. It would fill a huge need for the Jets, who lost Myers, Trouba, and Buff last season. LHD does nothing for them since they have Samberg and Heinola, who will be ready in a season or two.

What else needs to be added? In my opinion, not much. If the Jets and Laine are in a situation that @Easternbull is suggesting - Lou can leverage that and maybe let Chevaldayoff work out an extension with Pulock before a deal is struck.

Here are 3 options:

Deal Breaker (no way!) = Beauvillier with Pulock
MY Deal = Leddy with Pulock for Laine and a small + (prospect or a Pick).
Have to think long and hard = Wahlstrom with Pulock for Laine

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

I agree with this - Dobson is a non starter for any deal for Laine, because of the finances involved.

If there is a reality where Laine is an Islander this offseason, then it will come at the cost of Pulock.
Pulock is a Manitoba boy and would be playing in his home province. It would fill a huge need for the Jets, who lost Myers, Trouba, and Buff last season. LHD does nothing for them since they have Samberg and Heinola, who will be ready in a season or two.

What else needs to be added? In my opinion, not much. If the Jets and Laine are in a situation that @Easternbull is suggesting - Lou can leverage that and maybe let Chevaldayoff work out an extension with Pulock before a deal is struck.

Here are 3 options:

Deal Breaker (no way!) = Beauvillier with Pulock
MY Deal = Leddy with Pulock for Laine and a small + (prospect or a Pick).
Have to think long and hard = Wahlstrom with Pulock for Laine

Pulock is a top RD. Not much has to be added IMO.

Pulock and Bellows maybe

 

[IslesNorway]

Cannot. Add. Salary.

Laine makes close to $7 million and is RFA in a year. There is no way the Isles can acquire him with our cap problems unless the jets take on more salary than us

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

Cannot. Add. Salary.

Laine makes close to $7 million and is RFA in a year. There is no way the Isles can acquire him with our cap problems unless the jets take on more salary than us

Pulock is about to make at least $5M. If he goes the other way, they effectively wash out.

 

[IslesNorway]

Pulock is about to make at least $5M. If he goes the other way, they effectively wash out.

No, Laine's cap hit is $6.750 with one year to go before RFA. That means adding $1.750 million now and he needs reupping along Pelech and Beauvillier. There is no way on God's green earth they'll fit them all under the cap if we plan on having a full roster in a year

 

[seabass45]

No, Laine's cap hit is $6.750 with one year to go before RFA. That means adding $1.750 million now and he needs reupping along Pelech and Beauvillier. There is no way on God's green earth they'll fit them all under the cap if we plan on having a full roster in a year

Not just that, he's making $7.5 mil next season. He'll be aiming for Marner money, and although he might not make it, he's going to get a raise.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

No, Laine's cap hit is $6.750 with one year to go before RFA. That means adding $1.750 million now and he needs reupping along Pelech and Beauvillier. There is no way on God's green earth they'll fit them all under the cap if we plan on having a full roster in a year

You can if you get creative.

Protect the young, cheap players and force Seattle's hand to take one of our still useful, but expensive middle-6 wingers like Bailey or Eberle.

Bounce Boychuk next offseason (only one year remaining at that point).

Buyout Komarov.

Use the 2021 first to dump Ladd somewhere.

Worst comes to worst, trade Beauvillier next offseason. He'll have good value in the trade market. Beauvillier is a good player, but he shouldn't stand in the way of getting a young goal scoring winger for Barzal.

It will take some creativity but it is doable.

 

[IslesNorway]

Not just that, he's making $7.5 mil next season. He'll be aiming for Marner money, and although he might not make it, he's going to get a raise.

Exactly. For the Isles to acquire Laine they would also need to shed in excess of $10 million elsewhere. He'll be looking for $10 million a year and both Beau and Pelech will be looking for $5-6 million deals for a good number of years too.