Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2019-20 Pt. IX: Bubble Hockey

[Duanesutter12]

Growth is a key word when talking about these guys. My biggest gripe with Johnston is that he never showed enough discipline. In the playoffs two guys showed tremendous growth for me in this department. Johnston and Barzal who does not get enough credit for how much he matured in the playoffs.

Throw Johnston on the fourth line. Not the first, not the second, and not the third. Let him play on the fourth line and make mistakes. He will learn. Will he be a better player than Martin? That I am not sure. I do see a bigger player who is a better skater, better fighter, and someone who we do not have to commit to for potentially 3 years for big money since he is signed to a cheap deal. I have a suspicion that Lou saw this coming which is why he signed Johnston to that four year deal.

Anyway, this talk about Martin or Johnston is useless because if this team does not find a way to get another top six forward in here all of this talk will be useless.

Totally agree on Barzal! He had a rough series against Tampa most noticeably on their last goal but before this series he had elevated his complete game. And he is only 22 years old!

 

[Uncle Duke]

Just like a rookie couldn't possibly play in the playoffs, right?

Martin is a veteran who took a long time to get to where he is now (Martin only played early in his career because the team sucked). Johnston can get there too. He showed a lot of discipline in the playoffs and didn't run around doing anything that cost the team. In fact, in his last start he was one of the only forwards getting good opportunities. The hate about Johnston is unwarranted.

No like button - thx - but agree. Would like to see Johnston get a shot as a regular third or fourth line guy and see what he can do. And this from someone who thinks that fighting in hockey, particularly the staged and/or pre-arranged ones, is unnecessary and diminishes the sport.

 

[Uncle Duke]

I think we underestimate how valuable good defenseman are because we have so many of them. I would argue Pulock for Boeser straight is fair value!

Be nice, but I don't agree that they are comparable value. And might some GMs might be wary of young defensemen coming from the current version of the Isles? How much is player vs how much is system?

 

[Duanesutter12]

Be nice, but I don't agree that they are comparable value. And might some GMs might be wary of young defensemen coming from the current version of the Isles? How much is player vs how much is system?

Perhaps GM's would look at our defenseman as system driven but I still think we are underestimating their value on the market. When a team has needs they are just as desperate as anyone else to get them filled regardless of position. The offers I see being proposed for our defenseman seem woefully one sided with the exception of Boychuck because of his age and contract. He's the only one that would be hard to get fair (or full) value for.

 

[CREW99AW]

Laine is the exact type of player you want on Barzals wing and on the PP. one of the top shooters in the world and he’s only 22.

If you’re the islanders you make a serious push for him.


I don’t want to hear about him being inconsistent. Guy still ends the season with a stupid amount of goals. Just 22 years old.

I have been waiting yrs for another Ziggy Palffy.. I'd love to have Laine. The problems are can we get him without including Dobson or Pelech in the trade and can we meet his contract demands?
I think his looming contract demands are the biggest reason his name is now coming up in trade rumors.

 

[BelovedIsles]

dlawong is definitely out there with some of these proposals.

We have bigger fish to fry than 4th liners.

Another option is UFA Dadanov. I like his game, cost is cheaper. Superior to Ebs.

 

[CREW99AW]

Could the league financial struggles actually help the isles, in any attempts to move Boychuk or another player with a front loaded salary?

I have read that some teams are in actual danger of being sold, that some teams will set an internal cap and spend much closer to the cap fl then ceiling.. Those teams will be more concerned with actual cash paid out and less concerned with a players cap hit.

 

[Uncle Duke]

Could the league financial struggles actually help the isles, in any attempts to move Boychuk or another player with a front loaded salary?

I have read that some teams are in actual danger of being sold, that some teams will set an internal cap and spend much closer to the cap fl then ceiling.. Those teams will be more concerned with actual cash paid out and less concerned with a players cap hit.

I have seen and heard this point made in several articles and on many podcasts. To many teams the cap will matter less than actual cash out the door. We're not even through the 2020 season yet and most of the focus is still on the finals and actual hockey so we haven't begun to see the economic fallout from Covid yet. It's going to be massive. Things are going to happen that you would have never dreamed of a year ago. And it isn't going to be just the league's and teams financial struggles that will impact decision-making, but the personal fortunes of owners as well. No matter how rich they are, they still need cash flow and for many of them, their businesses are generating very little of it. All of the roster speculation in the world cannot account for the permutations of personnel and money being considered in NHL front offices right now.

 

[blinkman360]

*exhale*......channeling my inner-Bern. Here we go(forgive me if any of these numbers aren't realistic):

Re-sign Barzal to bridge: 2 years/$7M per
Re-sign Martin: 2 years/$1.5M per
Re-sign Toews: 3 years/$3.5M per
Re-sign Green: 1 year/$2M

Trade Pulock to WPG for Ehlers
Trade Leddy to MTL for 2nd this year and 4th in '21
Trade Ladd, top-3 protected 1st in '21, and Dal Colle to Ottawa for a '21 5th(whatever they give us)

2020/21 Lineup(total cap: $80.988M):

Ehlers($6M) - Barzal($7M) - Eberle($5.5M)
Lee($7M) - Nelson($6M) - Bailey($5M)
Beauvillier($2.1M) - JGP($5M) - Wahlstrom($0.894M)
Martin($1.5M) - Cizikas($3.35M) - Clutterbuck($3.5M)
x - Johnston($1M); Leo($3M)

Toews($3.5M) - Mayfield($1.45M)
Pelech($1.6M) - Dobson($0.894M)
Greene($2M) - Boychuk($6M)
x - Aho/Wotherspoon/MVS($1M or so)

Sorokin($2M)
Varlamov($5M)

*Ideally the Pelech-Dobson pairing starts out as #2 and take over the top-spot once they gain some chemistry together; hopefully not too long after the season starts. Boychuk holds down the last spot until one of Hutton or Wilde are ready.

Top remaining prospects: Bellows, Holmstrom, Wilde, Bolduc, Koivula, Hutton(if he qualifies), Newkirk, Salo, Iskhakov

Expected Expansion List:
F(7): Barzal, Beauvillier, Ehlers, Nelson, Lee, Paguea, Bailey [Eberle, Bellows exposed - *can change depending on how Bellows looks next year* - Zeek will be a UFA so can be left off and then re-signed after]
D(3): Pelech, Toews, Mayfield [Boychuk exposed]
G(1): Varlamov
*(to my knowledge)Wahlstrom, Dobson, and Sorokin do not need protection...please correct me if I'm wrong though.

*Either let Seattle take Eberle or Boychuk. The option to pay is always there as well in the event they target someone else like Bellows, but again if Bellows is worth picking then we can protect him and leave Bailey off the list.

*Top prospect list doesn't look great...in fact looks pretty bad, but in reality all 3 of Dobson, Wahlstrom and Sorokin will have been recent graduates which makes it look worse than it is. Not having a 1st for two straight years will hurt our ability to make moves, but it'll at least allow us to keep the young core together which IMO should be the priority.

If I missed someone who makes the above impossible let me know. I know not many will like the idea of turning Pulock into a winger for Barzal but it's the only way I can think of addressing that hole in the lineup(outside of expecting one of our rookies to take it). I just don't see any way of doing it with Pulock signed to $7M, and "no thanks" to the Parise idea.

 

[Tahoeblue]

If salary was cleared, would Hall accept a shorter and cheaper deal to play with his buddy on the right side? Kind of a "prove it" deal.

 

[PK Cronin]

If salary was cleared, would Hall accept a shorter and cheaper deal to play with his buddy on the right side? Kind of a "prove it" deal.

Why would he do that? He's probably the top free agent get and has a track record of getting dinged up, he'll take the stability now.

 

[The Wahligator]

Why would he do that? He's probably the top free agent get and has a track record of getting dinged up, he'll take the stability now.

I don’t remember where but I believe I saw Friedman say Hall could take a one year deal with a contender a la Hossa in ‘08.

 

[Easternbull]

He brings nothing else, nothing. Yes he an elite goal scorer who possesses a lethal shot, but he is also as one dimensional as you'll find in the entire league. If he's not burying it, he's more useless than the p***y version of Eberle.

Have you actually watched hm play this season?! This is no longer two he was challenged by the Jets coaching staff to improve his allround game this eason in order to get more ice time and a shot at playing with Scheiffele on the first line. Whil he still may never be a two way forward like Mark Stone he was back checking and covering up for his line mates al season long and he passing and playmaking abbilities are sooo underrated. When other teams try to target him physically he just gets more angry and plays better IMHO. More goals 5v5 this eason because he improved his overall game and Pionk kept feedeing him slow muffins on the PP.

Watch these clips from this season.

 

[periferal]

Well this shill won the Red Fisher award for the best beat reporter in the NHL in 2017, and has always been regarded as one of the best NHL reporters around. On top of that he grew up on Long Island during the dynasty years. He is the one reporter that is trusted by both NHL management and players allowing access to information that is often breaking. Shill, really?

Yasser Arafat once won the Nobel PEACE Prize.

I'm not arguing for/against Russo per se, but let's not make his total credibility based on any award anywhere.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

He brings nothing else, nothing. Yes he an elite goal scorer who possesses a lethal shot, but he is also as one dimensional as you'll find in the entire league. If he's not burying it, he's more useless than the p***y version of Eberle.

Always hilarious to read analysis from someone who gets his information from 2 year old reddit posts. Laine's evolving into a passing, shooting, hitting power forward. Is he ever going to brink you Selke level defense? Hell no, but he does try in his own end, and you as a fan of a team that was a f***ing shooting gallery in their own end before Trotz came in should know that under proper coaching, players are capable of big changes.

 

[periferal]

Exactly. That's why posts suggesting we should go through all kinds of gyrations just to get someone like Parise drive me nuts. Endorsing such a move is a tacit admission that just making the playoffs is good enough IMO.

Well I think for some here that just "enjoy hockey" the better the Isles do the better they'll feel, but they're not more like "Stanley Cup is the only thing" like you and I.

That said, it's totally cool to not want Parise (I really get that), but given the total lack of cap space even just to resign our own RFA's how do you propose we improve the team which is necessary to become that Cup champion that you and I both want this offseason ?

Stating the obvious.....it's all about Ladd.

It's significantly about Ladd, but he's not the only issue. Lee's contract is looking like a massive problem, and certainly Boychuck, Komarov, Clutterbuck, Hickey, and now maybe even Eberle. Taking Eberle out of there that's 15,000,000 in cap space that could be much better served doing almost anything else.

 

[periferal]

If Matt Martin ends up on the Rags next year I am gonna be sick.

Well Martin is coming off making 2.5M/year so we cannot give him that nor is he worth it. That said I still like him better than Johnston, but I think when Lou gave Johnston his "long term deal" a 1M/year that was in anticipation of knowing he wouldn't be able to afford Martin this offseason and he'd rather have 70% Martin than have to scramble to find another 1M player.

I actually wish Martin was ready to retire and take a role in the organization like Eric Carins did. Maritn is an Islander through and through and should be a part of the Isles for as long as he wants to be.

 

[periferal]

Pipe dream here, especially with our cap. Richard Rakell would look good in an isles uniform.

Not only the cap, but pipe dream is what we have and what it would take to get him. Think Dobson+.

 

[periferal]

If Lou actually is able to work some cap magic and sign Hoffman, what would that contract look like?

He is older than I think most people realize, already 30. He is exactly what we need but I’d imagine he’s going to get something around 5 years at 6-7 mil AAV. Just something to think about.

And I've thought about it.

If Hoffman were signed he would immediately be the best pure scorer on our team making about the same as Lee at the same age.

 

[danteipp]

Always hilarious to read analysis from someone who gets his information from 2 year old reddit posts. Laine's evolving into a passing, shooting, hitting power forward. Is he ever going to brink you Selke level defense? Hell no, but he does try in his own end, and you as a fan of a team that was a f***ing shooting gallery in their own end before Trotz came in should know that under proper coaching, players are capable of big changes.

Just curious, if it has even been publicly reported, how much is Laine looking for in a long-term contract, in terms of years and AAV?

Because that would probably be my biggest worry right now.

Is Laine looking to break the bank, as opposed to signing a deal like Kyle Connor, which is conducive to building an overall winning team?

If he isn't reasonable in terms of a new contract, especially in a flat-cap world, it could be a big problem for whatever team he is on and those RFA contract negotiations could be a nightmare.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I went through the Isles cap from a Captologist point of view, and if I were working with Lou. These are the options I would give him if he wanted to create cap space.

1. Move Leddy
2. Get Ladd to accept LTIR
And here is the one no one has mentioned to my knowledge.
3. Move Bailey.

Regarding the latter, Bailey just came off a playoff of 20 points in 22 games. He is the one logical fwd to move, he has no NTC, he is of some value to teams. Beauvillier in for the following year after this one, so this one makes sense. Hopefully one of Wahlstrom, Bellows, or Holmstrom can pick up the slack.

But when you are a good team, you will have good players to re-sign. Part of doing business in the NHL these days. Rosters rarely stay intact.

 

[periferal]

Laine is the exact type of player you want on Barzals wing and on the PP. one of the top shooters in the world and he’s only 22.

If you’re the islanders you make a serious push for him.


I don’t want to hear about him being inconsistent. Guy still ends the season with a stupid amount of goals. Just 22 years old.

I'm not even going to discuss his inconsistency so no problem there.

My problem is that Laine is that when he's not scoring he's lazy and can hurt you more than help. I'll admit I didn't watch barely any of Winnipeg this season so maybe he improved (since he went from a -24 in 18-19 to +8 in 19-20), but just think about this...

What does it say that you might have the best pure goal scorer in the league behind Ovechkin on your team, you preferred to do a bridge deal with him, and might even trade him. That's not a good look and speaks to the fact there's something else seriously wrong with his game/effort/etc for that to be the case.

Even more scary...Maybe he's just playing to get that long term contract (which if he does will be 9+ million).

Maybe Trotz can get Laine to become more well rounded like he did with Ovechkin, but that is a big risk given that Ovi was already in Washington when Trotz came aboard. We would have to first trade for Laine. Much easier/less costly to get rid of a player for something than have to outbid other teams to get him.

 

[periferal]

Everyone knows he scores, but he doesn't contribute otherwise. If he is so amazing, why in hell would Winnipeg ever part with him? He has serious warts, he's going to be expensive to acquire, and he wants to get paid hard. Strike one, strike two, and strike three.

Yup - Pretty much this.

 

[PK Cronin]

I went through the Isles cap from a Captologist point of view, and if I were working with Lou. These are the options I would give him if he wanted to create cap space.

1. Move Leddy
2. Get Ladd to accept LTIR
And here is the one no one has mentioned to my knowledge.
3. Move Bailey.

Regarding the latter, Bailey just came off a playoff of 20 points in 22 games. He is the one logical fwd to move, he has no NTC, he is of some value to teams. Beauvillier in for the following year after this one, so this one makes sense. Hopefully one of Wahlstrom, Bellows, or Holmstrom can pick up the slack.

But when you are a good team, you will have good players to re-sign. Part of doing business in the NHL these days. Rosters rarely stay intact.

Getting Ladd on LTIR is easier said than done and I've mentioned moving Bailey throughout the season. We'll see if Lamoriello and Trotz want to remove the longest tenured Islander who came off a pretty great playoff run. Are they going to want to mess with the best line they had all playoffs just to clear cap space? I'm leaning towards no, but I don't think it would be a terrible idea to move him if they could get something of real value back instead of just the space.

 

[PK Cronin]

Yup - Pretty much this.

Still waiting for the perfect player to become available I see.