Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2019-20 Pt. IX: Bubble Hockey

[periferal]

I'm glad the deal fell through. Surprised there is such a strong contingent of folks still hoping this trade is re-visited. Parise is 36 years old and signed until he is 40! We would be giving up young potential in Bellows and a 1st rounder to basically get a guy who is not far behind Ladd in terms of deterioration. Look at his GP and point totals the last 5 seasons. This year he shot at 16%, 5% over his career average. We are asking for trouble by trading for Parise. There are younger, less costly players out there who can chip in 20 goals.

Best option to get rid of Ladd is LTIR, always has been, always will be.

I don't disagree with anything you wrote here. Any/all options to get rid of Ladd and his contract are going to suck, but...

Putting Ladd on LTIR vs getting something for him (Parise or otherwise) doesn't make this team any better.

 

[periferal]

I think some Isles fans are dreaming when it comes to the value of the players here in a trade. Most fans overrate their own players normally, but this offseason there are two significant factors very much working against any teams trying to be sellers...

1. The salary cap not going up.
2. The expansion draft coming next summer, so teams will be very hesitant to give up assets for players they will have to protect or know they could lose for nothing.

Based on that I think these are the kind of deals you could make for these players:

• Leddy: Maybe a late 1st (25-31), but probably a 2nd and 4th.
• Boychuck: A 4th (especially since he can eliminate 24 teams he doesn't want to be traded to)
• Eberle: Has a NTC until the 2021 offseason (where he can eliminate half the league)
• Hickey: Absolutely zero without adding an asset greater than the return.
• Ladd: Absolutely zero without adding an asset greater than the return.

Not saying Lou should do it, but Barzal is basically the only player on this team that would net 2-3 top assets in return for a trade. I could see a team like Montreal offering Nick Suzuki, a 1st, and something else of value for him. Again not saying that Lou should do that deal, but trading Barzal is basically the only option to both open up a lot of cap space and also replenish some assets at the same time.

Just a really poorly conceived roster from a cap building perspective as there are barely any levers to pull to actually make this team more talented for 2 more years when a bunch of money comes off the books.

 

[CREW99AW]

Rumored. And the rumor came from Minnesota’s end. This isn’t to be taken as an endorsement for making the trade. Simply to suggest that too many people speak with certainty of what was and what will be.

Yet you can use the rumored Parise-Ladd deal as a cautionary tale of not assuming we know everything behind the scenes.

No one would have ever thought either could or would be traded... yet there we were during the trade deadline completely caught off guard.

Unless a trade is actually completed,do can we ever say fans know all the particulars?
Russo is probably Minn best known beat writer.Their Arthur Staple.Yet, some NYI fans would go on to describe him as a hack because he reported the price was Parise + Koivu for Ladd+Bellows+1st.

 

[CREW99AW]

I’m not saying that this is true. But I would absolutely not be surprised if it were. This train of thought is an excellent example of the kinds of things that a GM like Lou knows about and operates accordingly on.

I could see Lou having such an agreement worked out with player and agent. But of course once Parise’s last two years disappear, all of his critics will just suggest how lucky Lou was to have dodged that bullet.

I am gonna search for the writer/ link that said Parise has said he will not retire. That reassurance is probably a key reason Minn felt comfortable enough to explore trading him.

 

[danteipp]

I am gonna search for the writer/ link that said Parise has said he will not retire. That reassurance is probably a key reason Minn felt comfortable enough to explore trading him.

Let me help you, here is one of the articles (see the paragraph at the end of the story, although I also copied a small snippet for those that don't have access to the Athletic) as follows -

Regardless, Parise has told The Athletic in the past that this is a non-issue, that his plan is to play the length of his contract, which ends a month before his 41st birthday, provided he’s healthy.

Here is the link to the full story: Wild's Zach Parise trade talks with Isles break apart at deadline (UPDATE)

And, to get a handle on how Parise thinks, this is a great read: Zach Parise's hockey-life crisis: As he turns 35, Wild star ponders his past, present and future

 

[CREW99AW]

Let me help you, here is one of the articles (see the paragraph at the end of the story, although I also copied a small snippet for those that don't have access to the Athletic) as follows -

Regardless, Parise has told The Athletic in the past that this is a non-issue, that his plan is to play the length of his contract, which ends a month before his 41st birthday, provided he’s healthy.

Here is the link to the full story: Wild's Zach Parise trade talks with Isles break apart at deadline (UPDATE)

And, to get a handle on how Parise thinks, this is a great read: Zach Parise's hockey-life crisis: As he turns 35, Wild star ponders his past, present and future

Thanks.I appreciate it

 

[danteipp]

Thanks.I appreciate it

No problem, if you have access to the Athletic, the story on Parise is a terrific read.

If I had to guess, if Guerin ends up moving towards more of a 2-3+ year rebuild/retool, combined with Lou and Trotz at the helm of the Isles and their current success, Parise might opt to quietly ask Guerin to revisit a potential trade.

But the flat-cap $$$ will be tough to navigate, of course it occurs when the Isles finally have owners and a forthcoming new arena that will help them spend to the max.

 

[CREW99AW]

No problem, if you have access to the Athletic, the story on Parise is a terrific read.

If I had to guess, if Guerin ends up moving towards more of a 2-3+ year rebuild/retool, combined with Lou and Trotz at the helm of the Isles and their current success, Parise might opt to quietly ask Guerin to revisit a potential trade.

But the flat-cap $$$ will be tough to navigate, of course it occurs when the Isles finally have owners and a forthcoming new arena that will help them spend to the max.

I will check out the Athletic article.

My concern is not just the flat cap issue,but Parise needing to be protected in the expansion draft.

And from what I previously read, Minn's recapture penalty would be $19m. I do not believe they would trade Parise and risk that penalty,unless they were expecting him to play all 5 remaining yrs of his contract.

 

[danteipp]

I will check out the Athletic article.

My concern is not just the flat cap issue,but Parise needing to be protected in the expansion draft.

And from what I previously read, Minn's recapture penalty would be $19m. I do not believe they would trade Parise and risk that penalty,unless they were expecting him to play all 5 remaining yrs of his contract.

Just to be clear, as I understand it with the new CBA rules, the cap recapture penalty cannot eclipse the AAV of the player and is instead spread out over the amount of years necessary to pay it off in full.

So for the Wild, the amount they "saved", around $19 million, will be spread over essentially three seasons given Parise's approximate $7.5 million AAV. It is not the death sentence it used to be, altough it will still hurt.

With respect to ultimately trading Parise or not, I guess it depends on what Parise thinks of Guerin's team, the rebuild/retool and if he wants out.

After all, Parise is more likely to play out the length of his contract, or at least not retire and force the recapture, is he feels like he has been dealt with in good faith.

If he decides he wants out and there are trades available that would work for the player and team, but Parise feels Guerin screwed him over or demanded too much, then that probably increases Parise's chances of retiring and saddling Guerin with a big financial mess in the last year or two.

In short, Parise has almost all of the power.

 

[IslesNorway]

Now it's out in the open, I very much doubt LL goes back in for Parise unless the conditions are changed considerably. I've no doubt Lou would like him on the roster, but unless the Wild eats a good portion of his contract I can't see this deal happening now.

 

[BelovedIsles]

It's W-a-H-l-s-t-r-o-m

Two wins from a Cup final in the bubble, and one loss from being out of the playoff picture outside of it. We still don't really know what this team is. If people want to take the unusual circumstances of this past season and, more specifically, recent events, and project them to the future that's their prerogative, but I still contend that their is more work to do than is generally acknowledged in order to be a true contender through 82 games and potentially 28 playoff games in the normal course of things. In essence, the Isles were great for two 20 game stretches this past season and pretty bad the rest of the time. And those two great stretches came when they were fresh. Their style of play is not just brutal on their opponents.

Dobson is going to play full time in the coming season but we're going to lose one of Leddy or Pulock. Boychuk will be a year older and another year less reliable in terms of games played. All in, the D will probably be about equally effective. Goaltending is going to be solid but it's hard to imagine it being better than last years Jennings tandem that could only take us so far. Czikas is starting to pay the price for his style of play and he too will be less effective going forward IMO. The fourth line will not be the fourth line it has been. Lines two and three look very promising. Pageau is a solid, though expensive, pickup and the emergence of Nelson as both clutch (game 6 OT breakaway notwithstanding) and a 200 foot player is huge, as is the development of Beau. Bailey, hmm, Bailey? Well, if he can be the player he was in these playoffs all the time, that too will be a huge positive. Lee and Eberle, meh, and hopefully one or the other will be playing with Pageau. Neither one is true first line wing. Barzal getting a ton of buzz in the press but was ineffective when it mattered most and in many ways was an active negative. His game still has a ways to go for him to be actually among the elite and must to learn to drive to the net and be able to keep the puck on his stick at the same time, and improve his shot significantly, for his offensive game to not be considered mostly one-dimensional. It's a mixed bag IMO and standing pat will mean that it comes down to Wahlly and/or Bellows taking a quantum leap.

Having said all of this, it is a crazy environment out there and I am really looking forward to seeing what Lou can pull off. I won't be surprised by anything that happens, or to put if differently, I expect to be surprised. Not necessarily negatively or positively, but something unexpected is going to happen.

It's CIzikas.

For over half the year they were missing their best D man. That's a complete difference maker and (in part) explains the period of mediocrity; as evidenced by how much better they play when Pelech is in the lineup and their record.

The top line lacks elite talent, I've said this a million times, Isles faithful know it. If Lou can add a 30-35 goalscorer to that line, it changes the whole dynamic. The 2nd line looks very strong, perhaps Beau is developing into a 25-30 goalscorer. Bailey, I think we can pretty much expect the same. He had a great postseason, 'nice' players have those once in a while. He was pretty avg. in the ECF. JPG needs support on the 3rd line, Bellows can earn a spot here. I'm fine with the 4th line, though they are wearing down. Johnston can be a cheap replacement for MM.

I'm not counting on a 20-year old to produce the way NYI will need in order to evolve the team.

This team has taken the next step, I am confident Lou and co. will want and try to build on that. The core is pretty much in its prime, sans Barzal, Beau, Pulock and Toews (if we consider him a core player), the window is small, perhaps 3-4 years.

Barzal needs to improve his decision making, what he does with the puck, how to maximize his strengths and improve his shot; I agree.

Yes, the environment is crazy; the economic climate in the context of cramming a draft, free agency, and training camp within a matter of weeks.

 

[BelovedIsles]

He’s a game breaker. If he plays with Barzal and is the number 1 option on the PP. I can see him scoring 50 with his shot and release. Trotz had Ovie, Laine can be better under Trotz also. But it wouldn’t come cheaply. There may be better options at that price. But if the Isles went for it. I would be on board.

I'd pass on Laine, he'll cost too much in assets, will want to command big money, and is too one-dimensional/soft for me. He doesn't strike me as a player who will do anything to win; the commitment to dive in front of a shot, win board battles. You want your best players to also be your hardest working.

 

[Lek]

First off, any player who now comes to this team, definitely knows what is to be expected of him.
Second, we will not bring anyone in here that does not know what will definitely be expected from him and be able to do just that.
Third, Parise deal...i do not get it and it is not happening....pointless unless we get a steal, which for Minny, is pointless...which equates to a total of ....pointless.
Forth, stop with trading Barzal, not happening....really people?....
Fifth....i can definitely see a Laine type deal happing and it will involve a dman and a prospect.....but it might not involve Laine.....might just be too obvious a choice.

I would like to see Ebs play with Pags.....Lee play with Nelson.....that this would involve the fifth coming to fruition, which has to happen this year if at all possible....then you have a few years to re stock the pool.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Ten moves for the offseason:

1) Leddy to the Devils along with a mid-rounder for the late one of their three 1st round picks (#20 overall)

2) Boychuk (Leafs on his 8-team list) along with a 3rd rounder and 1.25 million in retention (basically paying his whole money owed this season) to Toronto for Hyman (final year and to save cap for Leafs who will need another RD in free-agency) and 4th rounder

3) Spin the acquired 1st round pick (#20) along with Komarov and Dal Colle to Ottawa for a modest return (3rd rounder)

4) Ladd and Hickey LTIR (Hopefully)

5) Re-sign RFA Barzal to a 3-year $22.8 million contract

6) Re-sign RFA Pulock to a 5-year $28.9 million contract

7) Re-sign RFA Toews to a 3-year $10 million contract

8) Sign UFA Hoffman to a 4-year $28 million contract

9) Re-sign UFA Martin to a 2-year $2.4 million contract

10) Re-sign UFA Greene to a 1-year $1.3 million contract

2020-21 Islanders:

Lee (7)- Barzal (7.6)- Hoffman (7.0)- 21.6 million
Beau (2.1)- Nelson (6)- Eberle (5.5)- 13.6
Hyman (2.3)- JGP (5)- Bailey (5)- 12.3
Martin (1.2)- Cizikas (3.4)- Clutterbuck (3.5)- 8.1

Johnston (1)- Bellows (.9)- 1.9

Pelech (1.6)- Pulock (5.8)- 7.4
Toews (3.3)- Mayfield (1.5)- 4.8
Greene (1.3)- Dobson (.9)- 2.2

Hutton (1)- 1.0

Varlamov (5)- Sorokin (2)- 7.0

Boychuk**- 1.3

Total- 81.2 million

It can be done, but Lou is going to have to work his magic........

Islanders 2020-21 Option 1 - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Quickdraw2828]

I think some Isles fans are dreaming when it comes to the value of the players here in a trade. Most fans overrate their own players normally, but this offseason there are two significant factors very much working against any teams trying to be sellers...

1. The salary cap not going up.
2. The expansion draft coming next summer, so teams will be very hesitant to give up assets for players they will have to protect or know they could lose for nothing.

Based on that I think these are the kind of deals you could make for these players:

• Leddy: Maybe a late 1st (25-31), but probably a 2nd and 4th.
• Boychuck: A 4th (especially since he can eliminate 24 teams he doesn't want to be traded to)
• Eberle: Has a NTC until the 2021 offseason (where he can eliminate half the league)
• Hickey: Absolutely zero without adding an asset greater than the return.
• Ladd: Absolutely zero without adding an asset greater than the return.

Not saying Lou should do it, but Barzal is basically the only player on this team that would net 2-3 top assets in return for a trade. I could see a team like Montreal offering Nick Suzuki, a 1st, and something else of value for him. Again not saying that Lou should do that deal, but trading Barzal is basically the only option to both open up a lot of cap space and also replenish some assets at the same time.

Just a really poorly conceived roster from a cap building perspective as there are barely any levers to pull to actually make this team more talented for 2 more years when a bunch of money comes off the books.

I don't want any first rounders for Barzal so we can send them to the Bridgeport grave yard.

 

[Uncle Duke]

It's CIzikas.

For over half the year they were missing their best D man. That's a complete difference maker and (in part) explains the period of mediocrity; as evidenced by how much better they play when Pelech is in the lineup and their record.

The top line lacks elite talent, I've said this a million times, Isles faithful know it. If Lou can add a 30-35 goalscorer to that line, it changes the whole dynamic. The 2nd line looks very strong, perhaps Beau is developing into a 25-30 goalscorer. Bailey, I think we can pretty much expect the same. He had a great postseason, 'nice' players have those once in a while. He was pretty avg. in the ECF. JPG needs support on the 3rd line, Bellows can earn a spot here. I'm fine with the 4th line, though they are wearing down. Johnston can be a cheap replacement for MM.

I'm not counting on a 20-year old to produce the way NYI will need in order to evolve the team.

This team has taken the next step, I am confident Lou and co. will want and try to build on that. The core is pretty much in its prime, sans Barzal, Beau, Pulock and Toews (if we consider him a core player), the window is small, perhaps 3-4 years.

Barzal needs to improve his decision making, what he does with the puck, how to maximize his strengths and improve his shot; I agree.

Yes, the environment is crazy; the economic climate in the context of cramming a draft, free agency, and training camp within a matter of weeks.

Nice comeback on Cizikas.

Pelech is and excellent defensive defenseman but if his loss causes the Isles to fold up the way they did and to the degree that they did then they are not the deep team that many say they are. Other teams suffered far worse injuries and lost far more man games to key players; Columbus (Seth Jones!), Pittsburgh, Colorado, Boston, St. Louis to name a few, and they were generally able to keep rolling. Injuries and the ability to withstand them are a major calculus in determining how good an NHL team really is and the Isles came up short in that respect. As I said, we were basically good for two 20 game stretches when we were fresh and healthy and bad when we started getting banged up or the mileage started piling up. The bottom line is that relying on twice as many blocked shots as your opponent to win is not a sustainable model over the long haul and BT and Lou are going to have to put together a team with more than just "identity" and the ability to play "Islander hockey".

 

[BelovedIsles]

Nice comeback on Cizikas.

Pelech is and excellent defensive defenseman but if his loss causes the Isles to fold up the way they did and to the degree that they did then they are not the deep team that many say they are. Other teams suffered far worse injuries and lost far more man games to key players; Columbus (Seth Jones!), Pittsburgh, Colorado, Boston, St. Louis to name a few, and they were generally able to keep rolling. Injuries and the ability to withstand them are a major calculus in determining how good an NHL team really is and the Isles came up short in that respect. As I said, we were basically good for two 20 game stretches when we were fresh and healthy and bad when we started getting banged up or the mileage started piling up. The bottom line is that relying on twice as many blocked shots as your opponent to win is not a sustainable model over the long haul and BT and Lou are going to have to put together a team with more than just "identity" and the ability to play "Islander hockey".

I said 'in part,' they didn't get the elite goaltending they had the year previous during those stretches of mediocrity.

And for your last points. Absolutely, hence the talent upgrade that we all have been pining for. NYI has put themselves in playoff contender (instead of 'hopeful') status that can do some damage. It's a foundation to build on, and I have confidence that management has the same mindset. The standard has been raised with this leadership. No longer satisfied with wallowing in mediocrity or plateauing.

 

[ndgolden]

Exactly!

Russo is a Minnesota shill, any discussion of this trade originated from him. I haven't seen anyone else with an ounce of credibility report anything similar independent of Russo's musings. Friedman piggy backed off of Russo's report and had no other insight.


It takes more than ONE Minnesota homer journalist or whatever the hell he is to convince me of something.

Well this shill won the Red Fisher award for the best beat reporter in the NHL in 2017, and has always been regarded as one of the best NHL reporters around. On top of that he grew up on Long Island during the dynasty years. He is the one reporter that is trusted by both NHL management and players allowing access to information that is often breaking. Shill, really?

 

[Islesfan22]

Lou needs to figure this cap stuff out as the islanders are a now team. In Lou I trust!

 

[Uncle Duke]

I said 'in part,' they didn't get the elite goaltending they had the year previous during those stretches of mediocrity.

And for your last points. Absolutely, hence the talent upgrade that we all have been pining for. NYI has put themselves in playoff contender (instead of 'hopeful') status that can do some damage. It's a foundation to build on, and I have confidence that management has the same mindset. The standard has been raised with this leadership. No longer satisfied with wallowing in mediocrity or plateauing.

Exactly. That's why posts suggesting we should go through all kinds of gyrations just to get someone like Parise drive me nuts. Endorsing such a move is a tacit admission that just making the playoffs is good enough IMO.

 

[Stercrazy]

Stating the obvious.....it's all about Ladd.

 

[CREW99AW]

Let me help you, here is one of the articles (see the paragraph at the end of the story, although I also copied a small snippet for those that don't have access to the Athletic) as follows -

Regardless, Parise has told The Athletic in the past that this is a non-issue, that his plan is to play the length of his contract, which ends a month before his 41st birthday, provided he’s healthy.

Here is the link to the full story: Wild's Zach Parise trade talks with Isles break apart at deadline (UPDATE)

And, to get a handle on how Parise thinks, this is a great read: Zach Parise's hockey-life crisis: As he turns 35, Wild star ponders his past, present and future

Both articles were interesting. Anyone posting or thinking Parise will retire in 3 yrs , ought to read them both.
He clearly shows his frustration with Minn's inability to ice a serious SC contender during his yrs there,his lack of interest in a rebuild and his wish to play on a team with a legitimate SC chance.

 

[Satan'sIsland81]

If Matt Martin ends up on the Rags next year I am gonna be sick.

 

[YearlyLottery]

If Matt Martin ends up on the Rags next year I am gonna be sick.

I would not really care. Fantastic player for us this year but in my opinion Johnston is a better skater and the time is for him if Martin wants anything more than a one year deal. Risky business giving Martin more than one year in my opinion.

 

[Tahoeblue]

Pipe dream here, especially with our cap. Richard Rakell would look good in an isles uniform.