Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread: Cap Gymnastics

[The Nuge]

Can we do Lucic for Kesler, a la Clarkson for Horton?

Maybe. The reason Toronto was able to pull that off was Horton’s contract wasn’t able to be insured, so Columbus at least got to have a player for their money, instead of paying someone to not play. Kesler’s contract might not be insured because of his hip issues, but I’ve got no idea. If it’s not insured, Anaheim saves $4.625 million doing a straight swap, and we save 6 million off of the cap

 

[Raab]

Also feel I should point out that Holland believes in having vets and said as much in his presser.

 

[Fourier]

There's also no such thing as a 20 NHL game season. He was just okay. Nothing amazing. Why do we need to rush this player all of a sudden?

One reason you want some of these guys getting NHL time is that you have a lot of prospects in similar stages. In particular several who will lose waiver eligibility at or near the same time. The more info you have about what they can do at the NHL level the better chance you have to make good decisions on who to keep and who to move.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

There's also no such thing as a 20 NHL game season. He was just okay. Nothing amazing. Why do we need to rush this player all of a sudden?

He’s played 120 AHL games on top of 130 WHL games on top of two years in the USNDP, how is having a roster spot as a 5/6 defenceman rushing him?

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Also feel I should point out that Holland believes in having vets and said as much in his presser.

Klefbom/Larsson/Nurse/Sekera are all very much vets. As is Gravel, who I wouldn’t be against keeping as 7D.

For all the “Holland Loves Vets” talk it sure gets ignored that he had a 20 year old and a 21 year old as everyday NHL defencemen.

 

[joestevens29]

One reason you want some of these guys getting NHL time is that you have a lot of prospects in similar stages. In particular several who will lose waiver eligibility at or near the same time. The more info you have about what they can do at the NHL level the better chance you have to make good decisions on who to keep and who to move.

So the answer is to play a rookie and Gravel on the bottom pairing to start the year and hope to hell that no one gets hurt and that these rookies actually are ready?

Why not worry about getting rid of proven NHLers when this rookies take one of those opportunities that come up every year and prove they deserve to be here?

Going into camp with a bottom pairing of some combo of rookies and Gravel is setting our team up for failure, yet again

 

[Raab]

Klefbom/Larsson/Nurse/Sekera are all very much vets. As is Gravel, who I wouldn’t be against keeping as 7D.

For all the “Holland Loves Vets” talk it sure gets ignored that he had a 20 year old and a 21 year old as everyday NHL defencemen.

He also had Green, Kronwall, Ericsson. You need a mix. I don’t consider Nurse, Klefbom, or Larsson true vets. I want guys over 28 that can still play, and help bring stability and confidence to the back end. Guys like Russell have already had bad bounces or call not go their way. They’ll know to keep their composure and just keep playing the game. A rookie doesn’t have that, and it takes a long time to get it.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

So the answer is to play a rookie and Gravel on the bottom pairing to start the year and hope to hell that no one gets hurt and that these rookies actually are ready?

Why not worry about getting rid of proven NHLers when this rookies take one of those opportunities that come up every year and prove they deserve to be here?

Going into camp with a bottom pairing of some combo of rookies and Gravel is setting our team up for failure, yet again

That’s literally what happened, though. Opportunity arose, Jones came up, and he was fine. How are Russell and Benning - who, you’ll note, we did PLENTY of failing with - suddenly irreplaceable? Russell can’t pass or exit our zone with possession. Most of our defence can’t. We have to get better on that front and Jones will help there.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

He also had Green, Kronwall, Ericsson. You need a mix. I don’t consider Nurse, Klefbom, or Larsson true vets. I want guys over 28 that can still play, and help bring stability and confidence to the back end. Guys like Russell have already had bad bounces or call not go their way. They’ll know to keep their composure and just keep playing the game. A rookie doesn’t have that, and it takes a long time to get it.

“I want vettier vets so my point is still relevant”

Ericsson is God-awful, for the record. 44% Corsi, 41% Fenwick, and that’s against lesser competition - dude was only playing 17 minutes a night. You’re seriously telling me you’d rather have that in your lineup over Jones/Lagesson?

It’s a miracle the Hurricanes made the conference final without a single defenceman over 27 years old.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

He’s played 120 AHL games on top of 130 WHL games on top of two years in the USNDP, how is having a roster spot as a 5/6 defenceman rushing him?

So you think the Oilers are able to properly incorporate him into the lineup with a shaky goalie and suspect defense? Because that didn't work out so well last year with Bouchard. Again, what's the rush? Let him gain more confidence in the AHL lest it be sucked away on the Oilers.

One reason you want some of these guys getting NHL time is that you have a lot of prospects in similar stages. In particular several who will lose waiver eligibility at or near the same time. The more info you have about what they can do at the NHL level the better chance you have to make good decisions on who to keep and who to move.

Again, I can't stress this enough, the Oilers are not in any position to be experimenting with unknowns. I understand the importance of waiver eligibility, but this is a critical year for the Oilers that shouldn't be risked on rookies, no matter how small their role. It takes a long time before defensemen are truly NHL ready, especially on a roster as swiss cheese-y as this one.

I realize how short-sighted this sounds, but focus on this year first then worry about the future.

 

[Raab]

“I want vettier vets so my point is still relevant”

Ericsson is God-awful, for the record.

Well which is Nurse a vet or still a young learning dman? You cant pair him with a rookie, and so if you put him with Sekera you have two rookies on the 3rd pairing without injuries. I’d way rather have Russell and Sekera here where we can move them up into the top 4 in case of injury. Once Nurse is ready for a rookie on his pairing, then we should start moving away from Russell and Sekera, but that’s at least a year away.

 

[onetweasy]

You give a rookie a shot when you're confident they can handle NHL duties on a consistent basis and the team won't suffer.

This isn't the Tampa Bay Lightning. This is the Oilers, a team that gets exposed very easily on the back end. Even when the Oilers had their defense completely healthy they weren't even close enough to being good. That's not going to improve with Jones or whoever else. You run the risk of ruining development and confidence by promoting defensemen. While I think over ripening prospects is a bit silly, in the defense's case it's very much a valid strategy.

Just because they're playing in a limited role doesn't mean they can't be exposed. A smart team will put out their best players against rookies.

You are not confident that Jones could handle a #6 role next season? Why?

He has not been rushed and if he wins a job at camp he has more than earned a place on the roster. I am willing to live with growing pains if it means adding another d man that can actually hit tape with a pass instead of a chest high plexi-glass pass.....

 

[ChaoticOrange]

So you think the Oilers are able to properly incorporate him into the lineup with a shaky goalie and suspect defense? Because that didn't work out so well last year with Bouchard. Again, what's the rush? Let him gain more confidence in the AHL lest it be sucked away on the Oilers.


Again, I can't stress this enough, the Oilers are not in any position to be experimenting with unknowns. I understand the importance of waiver eligibility, but this is a critical year for the Oilers that shouldn't be risked on rookies, no matter how small their role. It takes a long time before defensemen are truly NHL ready, especially on a roster as swiss cheese-y as this one.

I realize how short-sighted this sounds, but focus on this year first then worry about the future.

His confidence is already extremely high. There’s another side of the coin with prospect development - they don’t all just magically get better in the AHL. Some stagnate, especially if after two solid AHL seasons they aren’t given a sniff at a roster spot. The Oilers need puckmovers. They have nothing expendable to trade and no capspace. We haven’t made the playoffs or even gotten close with this exact defence group in two seasons. Shall I remind you of Einstein’s definition of insanity?

 

[oXo Cube]

Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear are coming up on their third pro season. You can't just bury them forever.

If they don't show something next year its statistically incredibly unlikely that they ever will.

 

[MessierII]

It does matter what sort of injuries we are talking about if the issue is trying to predict the future. Most of the time he has missed has been due to very random events. If the injuries are not a threat to reoccur then mathematically your argument is analogous to saying that if I toss a fair coin three times and it comes up tails all three times then the next flip is again more likely to be tails.

That’s a ridiculous comparison. The human body is not a coin. Some people are prone to being hurt/sick in a variety of random ways. It is what it is. I’m floored there’s even a pushback to calling Klef injury prone at this point. I don’t fathom how anyone could possible argue against it.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Well which is Nurse a vet or still a young learning dman? You cant pair him with a rookie, and so if you put him with Sekera you have two rookies on the 3rd pairing without injuries. I’d way rather have Russell and Sekera here where we can move them up into the top 4 in case of injury. Once Nurse is ready for a rookie on his pairing, then we should start moving away from Russell and Sekera, but that’s at least a year away.

As I have painstakingly explained many, many, many times now in this exact thread, Persson is already 25, hardly some raw rookie, and signing a steady #7 defenceman like Gravel or someone else would mitigate this issue.

Klefbom-Larsson is your top pair.
Nurse-Sekera is your second pair.
A combination of Jones/Persson/7th Guy/hell veteran 8th guy if you want is your third pair.

We are going absolutely nowhere with a 6 million dollar Russell/Benning 3rd pairing, I can promise you that much.

 

[SK13]

Not enough people are talking about Joel Persson.

25 year old veteran of 5 pro seasons. Good puck mover, good offensive tools, nearly led his team in scoring.

 

[The Nuge]

That’s literally what happened, though. Opportunity arose, Jones came up, and he was fine. How are Russell and Benning - who, you’ll note, we did PLENTY of failing with - suddenly irreplaceable? Russell can’t pass or exit our zone with possession. Most of our defence can’t. We have to get better on that front and Jones will help there.

Jones oozed potential, but he was also the worst of those 3 last year. He made lots of rookie mistakes.

Russell isn’t irreplaceable, but you can’t replace a #4/5 with a rookie and not expect growing pains. Especially when our forwards are so bad. We don’t have the luxury of having forwards who can make up for a weak defenseman like say Boston (who iced 12 different dmen last year) or Toronto (who didn’t even have 6 NHL caliber dmen most of the year)

Not enough people are talking about Joel Persson.

25 year old veteran of 5 pro seasons. Good puck mover, good offensive tools, nearly led his team in scoring.

It’s more not pencilling him in before we know what to expect. I’m hoping he can come over and force his way onto the team, but he hasn’t even played in North America before

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Jones oozed potential, but he was also the worst of those 3 last year. He made lots of rookie mistakes.

Russell isn’t irreplaceable, but you can’t replace a #4/5 with a rookie and not expect growing pains. Especially when our forwards are so bad. We don’t have the luxury of having forwards who can make up for a weak defenseman like say Boston (who iced 12 different dmen last year) or Toronto (who didn’t even have 6 NHL caliber dmen most of the year)

The thought process is you improve the forwards with the money saved by moving Russell and Benning.

Purely hypothetical, but on paper are we better with:

Group A: Russell, Benning, Rattie, Rieder

Or

Group B: Joonas Donskoi, Connor Brown, Caleb Jones, Joel Persson

 

[SK13]

Jones oozed potential, but he was also the worst of those 3 last year. He made lots of rookie mistakes.

Russell isn’t irreplaceable, but you can’t replace a #4/5 with a rookie and not expect growing pains. Especially when our forwards are so bad. We don’t have the luxury of having forwards who can make up for a weak defenseman like say Boston (who iced 12 different dmen last year) or Toronto (who didn’t even have 6 NHL caliber dmen most of the year)

The only way your forwards stop being bad is if you find cap to address that.

Internally, they are far less likely to find good middle-six forwards in the prospect pool than they are a good bottom pairing defenseman. Puljujarvi is clearly in suspect territory and Yamamoto is going to need some time.

The chances they find a single good bottom pairing defenseman this year out of Persson, Jones, Bouchard, Samorukov, Bear and Lagesson are pretty high comparably.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Not enough people are talking about Joel Persson.

25 year old veteran of 5 pro seasons. Good puck mover, good offensive tools, nearly led his team in scoring.

bUt He’S a RoOkIe He NeEdS sEaSoNiNg

 

[joestevens29]

The thought process is you improve the forwards with the money saved by moving Russell and Benning.

Purely hypothetical, but on paper are we better with:

Group A: Russell, Benning, Rattie, Rieder

Or

Group B: Joonas Donskoi, Connor Brown, Caleb Jones, Joel Persson

Rieder is younger than Donksoi. Not sure why the assumption is Donksoi is going to come in and solve anything, same with Connor Brown.

If you can sign them for cheap then fine, but I don't see why those guys are so much better options then what we tried with Reider last year. Just could easily blow up. All while making your defenese a lot more shaky.

Now running two rookies on the bottom pairing, one injury away from them being in the top 4. Not good.

 

[Raab]

As I have painstakingly explained many, many, many times now in this exact thread, Persson is already 25, hardly some raw rookie, and signing a steady #7 defenceman like Gravel or someone else would mitigate this issue.

Klefbom-Larsson is your top pair.
Nurse-Sekera is your second pair.
A combination of Jones/Persson/7th Guy/hell veteran 8th guy if you want is your third pair.

We are going absolutely nowhere with a 6 million dollar Russell/Benning 3rd pairing, I can promise you that much.

Why can’t we run

Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Sekera
Persson/Jones-Russell
Benning

I don’t really see any point in moving Russell at this point when we don’t need the cap space. If you want to move Benning or Manning go right ahead. But why move a solid vet for no reason? This is Eberle all over again.

 

[joestevens29]

Why can’t we run

Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Sekera
Persson/Jones-Russell
Benning

I don’t really see any point in moving Russell at this point when we don’t need the cap space. If you want to move Benning or Manning go right ahead. But why move a solid vet for no reason? This is Eberle all over again.

This I could live with. Allows some room for guys to get a shot, but also leaves us a backup plan if they struggle or if we hit injuries. If by x-mas we see that a couple of younger players are ready then you can trade Benning or waive him

 

[SK13]

Why can’t we run

Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Sekera
Persson/Jones-Russell
Benning

I don’t really see any point in moving Russell at this point when we don’t need the cap space. If you want to move Benning or Manning go right ahead. But why move a solid vet for no reason? This is Eberle all over again.

Because that doesn't create cap space. Manning is borderline immovable and finding a taker for him saves you 1M dollars. Benning makes 1.9M and his lowest end replacement is 650,000 - for a cap savings 1.2M.

Trading Kris Russell for nothing could save you 3.4M dollars AFTER replacement. That's a middle six forward by himself.