Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread | Reseason Training Camp Opens July 13th?

[MessierII]

I was watching the game, and watched them play very sparingly together.

75 minutes together in 45 games.

Want to see their stats?

56.85 cf%
60.00 gf%
67.63 xGF%
67.7 HDCF%
60.0 SCF%

"Putrid" he says

Do you ever think of looking up the stats before embarrassing yourself?

They played 168 minutes together plus all of pre season.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Tobias Kahun]

They played 168 minutes together plus all of pre season.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Who cares about preseason?

Judging by those stats they were pretty dominant.

Puljujarvi looks like an all star in preseason.

And why do you have it at all strengths?

70% xGF looks pretty dominant, all you're doing is hurting his argument that they never clicked

I'm sure you can tell the difference between playing on the powerplay and at 5on5.

 

[Smartguy]

The Oilers have no money to spend once they re-sign their RFA's, sign Sheahan or his replacement, Ennis and add a goalie. In fact, that might not even be feasible. They can't sign Hall, Holtby or even an average 3rd line center unless they shed some serious cap.

Personally, I'd be much more interested in signing somebody like Haula or Soderberg than Hall or Holtby even if they had the money to sign one of the latter two.

Agreed, the cap space needed to sign Hall just literally doesn’t exist.

You are assuming they sign all RFA? I would be shocked if Benning is brought back if they can’t offload Russell. They have room to try to address 3C if they let him walk I believe.

I think our D going into next year looks like

Nurse-Bear
Klef-Larsson
Russell-Jones
Lagesson/Bouchard/some plug as 7D

You just aren’t bringing Benning back to be a #6 when Jones played well enough this year to be a solid option and you have Bouchard bordering on being NHL ready with a flat cap next year.

People talking about Hall or Holtby, that is literally impossible, we would have to try to find away to get rid of Neal to make room which isn’t happening.

Next year we have Russel, Chiasson, the Pouliot buyout, Sekera buyout dropping a Million, all coming off. That’s 8.5M, and RNH will need a raise, Larsson needs to be replaced or resigned, and Yamamoto is an RFA. Best case Larsson can be replaced by Bouchard and you maybe have 4-5M next offseason to address some holes

There just won’t be room with a flat cap to add any FA into impact positions

 

[Aerchon]

I was watching the game, and watched them play very sparingly together.

75 minutes together in 45 games.

Want to see their stats?

56.85 cf%
60.00 gf%
67.63 xGF%
67.7 HDCF%
60.0 SCF%

"Putrid" he says

Do you ever think of looking up the stats before embarrassing yourself?

They played all of preseason and the first month of the season together and at no point were really clicking at all.

Unfortunately looking at stats instead of watching the games can lead to some serious foolishness.

There was some stat nut spewing stuff about Draisaitl not being as good as Nichushkin. Saying Hall and McDavid were dominate is right up there for statistical tomfoolery.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Unfortunately looking at stats instead of watching the games can lead to some serious foolishness.

There was some stat nut spewing stuff about Draisaitl not being as good as Nichushkin. Saying Hall and McDavid were dominate is right up there for statistical tomfoolery.

Foolish?

Just because you don't know how to read the stats doesn't make them foolish.

I think it's become pretty obvious that you don't believe in advanced stats and dont know how to read them, you also compared jones and laggesson like they are comparable D and both number 7s.

Since you're using 1 month to judge what they could possibly become.

Did you see McDavid and Draisaitl together in december? We better never see them together again.

 

[MessierII]

Who cares about preseason?

Judging by those stats they were pretty dominant.

Puljujarvi looks like an all star in preseason.

Classic case of stat watching. They played all of pre season not clicking at all then the first 9 games full time together. Taylor only had 6 points McDavid had 9 and was -3. They split them and both guys instantly exploded. If you watched them live they didn’t click. If they did the coach would have went for it again. They even went back to it later in the year Edmonton Oilers put Connor McDavid, Taylor Hall together on top line against Minnesota Wild | Edmonton Journal

At even strength they were on for 5 goals for and 6 against. Stats actually show the results weren’t there.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Classic case of stat watching. They played all of pre season not clicking at all then the first 9 games full time together. Taylor only had 6 points McDavid had 9 and was -3. They split them and both guys instantly exploded. If you watched them live they didn’t click. If they did the coach would have went for it again. They even went back to it later in the year Edmonton Oilers put Connor McDavid, Taylor Hall together on top line against Minnesota Wild | Edmonton Journal

At even strength they were on for 5 goals for and 6 against. Stats actually show the results weren’t there.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

So since they're bad together 4 on 4 you cant put them together 5on5?

look up their 5on5 stats.

The coach didnt because Draisaitl and Hall were clicking.

 

[Aerchon]

Foolish?

Just because you don't know how to read the stats doesn't make them foolish.

I think it's become pretty obvious that you don't believe in advanced stats and dont know how to read them, you also compared jones and laggesson like they are comparable D and both number 7s.

Since you're using 1 month to judge what they could possibly become.

Did you see McDavid and Draisaitl together in december? We better never see them together again.

To each their own dude. If you prefer to look up stats rather than watch the games more power to ya.

I have stated my thoughts on advanced stats multitudes of times on here. That without context and the experience/ability to relate them to an actual game they are as useless as any other stat. Plus minus is generally a terrible stat to look at in isolation but combined with the eye test can at least draw some basic conclusions. With your comments here you have pretty much have proven advanced can be completely useless.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

To each their own dude. If you prefer to look up stats rather than watch the games more power to ya.

I have stated my thoughts on advanced stats multitudes of times on here. That without context and the experience/ability to relate them to an actual game they are as useless as any other stat. Plus minus is generally a terrible stat to look at in isolation but combined with the eye test can at least draw some basic conclusions. With your comments here you have pretty much have proven advanced can be completely useless.

I'm not the one quoting my eye test after 5 years as fact, when the stats say completely different things.

Atleast we know McDavid and Draisaitl should never be on the same line again, jesus christ they're terrible.

Both Hall and McDavid were better when paired with eachother than when apart at 5on5.

 

[MessierII]

I'm not the one quoting my eye test after 5 years as fact, when the stats say completely different things.

Atleast we know McDavid and Draisaitl should never be on the same line again, jesus christ they're terrible.

Both Hall and McDavid were better when paired with eachother than when apart at 5on5.

5 on 5 they were on the ice for 3 goals for in 75 minutes and 2 against.

McDavid is never bad with anyone but that’s not very good. The results just weren’t there.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

5 on 5 they were on the ice for 3 goals for in 75 minutes and 2 against.

McDavid is never bad with anyone but that’s not very good. The results just weren’t there.

they also didn't have alot of time, this was also at the beginning of McDavid's career when he was fresh to the NHL.

 

[Aerchon]

5 on 5 they were on the ice for 3 goals for in 75 minutes and 2 against.

McDavid is never bad with anyone but that’s not very good. The results just weren’t there.

It was common knowledge Hall and McDavid were given every opportunity and the results just were not there. Speculation had it as two speedy players that both needed the puck as being counterproductive. Not really sure how this became an argument but I greatly appreciated your input.

Thanks and have a good night.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

It was common knowledge Hall and McDavid were given every opportunity and the results just were not there. Speculation had it as two speedy players that both needed the puck as being counterproductive. Not really sure how this became an argument but I greatly appreciated your input.

Thanks and have a good night.

So you agree that McDavid and Draisaitl should never be together

It became an argument when you posted factually incorrect knowledge which is usual for you to do.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

5 on 5 they were on the ice for 3 goals for in 75 minutes and 2 against.

McDavid is never bad with anyone but that’s not very good. The results just weren’t there.

how about these stats from 2015/2016

Hall + Draisaitl
xgf/60 2.57
xga/60 2.14
hdcf/60 11.05
scf/60 29.11

Hall + McDavid
xgf/60 3.31
xga/60 1.58
hdcf/60 16.58
scf/60 35.53

2019/2020

McDavid + Draisaitl
xgf/60 2.69
xga/60 3.02
hdcf/60 13.34
scf/60 30.25

So it looks like Hall and McDavid are a vastly superior duo than McDavid and Draisaitl at 5on5.

Any sensible rebuttal besides trying to tell me my eyes don't work?

Also, in the first 8 games on the 2015 season.

McDavid and Hall played 19:54 together, nearly 12 of that coming in the first game of the season.

"They played all of pre season not clicking at all then the first 9 games full time together."

In the 13 games before McDavid's injury they weren't clicking the best no, but to act like they had alot of time together to get accustomed is just wrong.

In 13 games they had 23:13 together

In 32 games after his injury they had 52:46 together.

Putting up
3.41 g/60
2.27 ga/60
3.92 xgf/60
1.66 xga/60
70.33 xgf%
61.67 scf%
73.91 hdcf%

 

[Panda Bear]

try their stats from previous seasons instead of cherry picking

account for coaching change

and recognize that elite talents outperform raw xGoals because their shots, passes and scoring chances are above the statistical mean used to calculate an xGoal

moneypuck.com has an algorithm that accounts for shooting talent, and McDavid and Drai both significantly outperform their xGoals with actual goals. they're #4 and #8 respectively

NHL Player Statistics -Advanced Stats

 

[Panda Bear]

they're also going to produce fewer xGoals if they finish on their first chance on goal rather than scoring off a rebound

that's why there is work being done on "flurry adjusted xGoals", as in how to account for net scrambles and rebounds, so that players who don't generate as many xGoals because they finish their chances first time don't get punished for it

 

[Tobias Kahun]

try their stats from previous seasons instead of cherry picking

account for coaching change

and recognize that elite talents outperform raw xGoals because their shots, passes and scoring chances are above the statistical mean used to calculate an xGoal

moneypuck.com has an algorithm that accounts for shooting talent, and McDavid and Drai both significantly outperform their xGoals with actual goals. they're #4 and #8 respectively

NHL Player Statistics -Advanced Stats

A new coach causes them to be not as talented as previous years?

This is a career year for both of them, yet 5 on 5 they actually got out performed by hall and mcdavid.

And how am I cherry picking? I'm using a whole season sample size for when they played together? I'm not picking out a string of games.

 

[MessierII]

how about these stats from 2015/2016

Hall + Draisaitl
xgf/60 2.57
xga/60 2.14
hdcf/60 11.05
scf/60 29.11

Hall + McDavid
xgf/60 3.31
xga/60 1.58
hdcf/60 16.58
scf/60 35.53

2019/2020

McDavid + Draisaitl
xgf/60 2.69
xga/60 3.02
hdcf/60 13.34
scf/60 30.25

So it looks like Hall and McDavid are a vastly superior duo than McDavid and Draisaitl at 5on5.

Any sensible rebuttal besides trying to tell me my eyes don't work?

Also, in the first 8 games on the 2015 season.

McDavid and Hall played 19:54 together, nearly 12 of that coming in the first game of the season.

"They played all of pre season not clicking at all then the first 9 games full time together."

In the 13 games before McDavid's injury they weren't clicking the best no, but to act like they had alot of time together to get accustomed is just wrong.

In 13 games they had 23:13 together

In 32 games after his injury they had 52:46 together.

Putting up
3.41 g/60
2.27 ga/60
3.92 xgf/60
1.66 xga/60
70.33 xgf%
61.67 scf%
73.91 hdcf%

I don’t care about any of that when at the end of the day they were on the ice for 3 goals for at 5 on 5.

3

Both guys produced more offense away from each other. It’s such ridiculous cherry picking your doing here. This is actually the prime example of how not to use advance stats. I think you know that though and are just committed to your argument.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I don’t care about any of that when at the end of the day they were on the ice for 3 goals for at 5 on 5.

3

Both guys produced more offense away from each other. It’s such ridiculous cherry picking your doing here. This is actually the prime example of how not to use advance stats. I think you know that though and are just committed to your argument.

I’m not cherry picking.

you’re the one throwing out statements saying they played all of pre season and the first 9 games together when that’s factually incorrect.

do you normally base opinions based off such small sample sizes?

seems like you don’t care about lying aswell.

 

[MessierII]

I’m not cherry picking.

you’re the one throwing out statements saying they played all of pre season and the first 9 games together when that’s factually incorrect.

Your not cherry picking? Their goals for numbers suck. They didn’t have offensive chemistry. If they did they would have scored goals and not been split every time they were put together.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Your not cherry picking? Their goals for numbers suck. They didn’t have offensive chemistry. If they did they would have scored goals and not been split every time they were put together.

F U L L T I M E 9 G A M E S.

 

[MessierII]

F U L L T I M E 9 G A M E S.

Ok and? Their goals for numbers still suck together.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Ok and? Their goals for numbers still suck together.

You still have yet to acknowledge how wrong you were in your observation that they played 9 games together to start the season.

In their first 13 games they scored 0 goals together.

In the final 32.

They scored at a 3.41 g/60.

Which is a pretty good rate.

3 goals in 52 minutes.

All while being much better defensively when they were together rather than apart.

Yamamoto + Draisaitl in 2018/2019

48 minutes, 1 goal for, 4 against.

Thankfully the oilers organization didn't just get rid of yamamoto after that showing.

 

[Aerchon]

Your not cherry picking? Their goals for numbers suck. They didn’t have offensive chemistry. If they did they would have scored goals and not been split every time they were put together.

Some people just hate being wrong and will do anything to obscure it. Change the discussion, add stuff, subtract stuff, make up stuff.

The crux of this discussion was so overwhelming against him a blind person could see it. A deaf person hear it. A mute person speak it.

With a person unwilling to admit that the overwhelming majority of the discussion is against him it's just better to move on. Nothing you can say or do will change that person. They will focus on being 1% right rather than 99% wrong.

 

[Panda Bear]

A new coach causes them to be not as talented as previous years?

This is a career year for both of them, yet 5 on 5 they actually got out performed by hall and mcdavid.

And how am I cherry picking? I'm using a whole season sample size for when they played together? I'm not picking out a string of games.

I don't really care about this argument, but I do like how you skipped over everything that I've said about xGoals