Proposal: Rumors and Proposals Thread: Another Day, Another Disappointment

[SK13]

I could see the bottom six being in the same ball park. Why is Lucic now magically going to start scoring more?

The bottom six doesn't score much because they kinda suck.

Nothing magic about it. When any player has such a low as Lucic's calender 2018, they're absolutely likely to do better regardless of team factors. Which is why Lucic had more than twice as many goals in 30 games in 2019 than he did in 70 games in the year 2018.

The fact of the matter is that EVERY player involved underperformed on career norms beyond Chiasson and Kassian, to such a degree that it is not only improbable that it would happen to all again in the same way, it's just borderline impossible. I would literally bet thousands on it.

 

[CupofOil]

Jones, Lagesson and Persson are all potential guys who can take a big step at defense. Benson, Yamamoto and Marody could all come in and take a big step at forward. Mike Smith could actually have a bounce back year and Koskinen could fix his glove hand. We have potential to take big steps too, we already have McDavid, Draisaitl and RNH. If Benson and Yamamoto can be even 40-50 point wingers next year that massively improves our forwards.

It's a risk, I know that, I think he should of done more, but until the games are played...we don't know if it paid off or not.

Those guys aren't even close to the skill level of the Jets young players. It would be a giant leap for Benson or Yamamoto to score 40+ points, I'd be happy if either established themselves as a full time NHLer in any capacity by the end of the season.
I'm just saying that there isn't much growth potential with this current group unlike Winnipeg which had a boatload of big, fast and skilled youngsters on the verge of breaking out.

I think this team is setting up well for the future but if you're expecting a Jets type breakout next season, you're expecting way WAY too much. The ceiling of this group in the short term is very limited. In fact, I'd expect some regression from Drai, RNH, Chiasson and Nurse at least in raw numbers. The chances of Drai putting up 50 goals and 100 points, RNH putting up 70 points in a 2nd line role with no wingers, Chiasson 22 goals and/or Nurse putting up 40 points with minimal PP time are very remote. All those guys had career best season that blew away their previous career highs yet the Oilers were still the 7th worst team in the league.
I don't see where the growth potential is elsewhere, I really don't. I think the biggest surprises could come from the Euros because we don't know what they can do at the NHL level yet but there's not exactly a Panarin or a Gusev in that group.

 

[belair]

The offence is creating what it should ... it's a crap overall offence.

Even crap offences generate more than our depth guys did last season. Tobias Rieder was put in a position to succeed for much of last season, yet he generated shots at a career low rate. Lucic as well--and if you peek at his highlight videos, he used to score a lot of his goals off of rebounds. We don't generate a lot of those.

I have a feeling next season we'll be seeing a bit less of an offense focused around the cycle and a bit more of a shoot from anywhere mentality. Because of this, I could see Sam Gagner having a bit of a resurgence.

 

[SK13]

Okay but who are the new players generating shots? Rookies? Granlund?

The Oilers 17-18 powerplay had the talent - McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH - talent existed there.

I don't see where the 5v5 offense has suddenly come from to improve these numbers - Granlund might be able to pot a few more. Maybe the rookies. Maybe Gagner. Lots of maybes.

Lots of almost certainties, actually.

Granlund scored 25% more goals from a 3line winger role than Lucic, Reider and Khaira combined. Khaira going from 10 goals to shooting 4.7% and 3 goals isn't likely to repeat, and if it did, he wouldn't be likely to remain on the roster against competition from Tyler Benson and others.

The EXACT SAME PLAYERS would exceed their contributions in a runback of this season overall. Easily. This league is filled with situations where the expected result is overshot or undershot to drastic degrees and things level out. Shot rates of bottom nine forwards is definitely one of those things here.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Those guys aren't even close to the skill level of young players that the Jets had. It would be a giant leap for Benson or Yamamoto to score 40+ points, I'd be happy if either established themselves as a full time NHLer in any capacity by the end of the season.

I'm just saying that there isn't much growth potential with this current group unlike Winnipeg which had a boatload of big, fast and skilled youngsters on the verge of breaking out.

I think this team is setting up well for the future but if you're expecting a Jets type breakout next season, you're expecting way WAY too much. The ceiling of this group in the short term is very limited. In fact, I'd expect some regression from Drai, RNH, Chiasson and Nurse at least in raw numbers. The chances of Drai putting up 50 goals and 100 points, RNH putting up 70 points in a 2nd line role with no wingers, Chiasson 22 goals and/or Nurse putting up 40 points with minimal PP time are very remote. I don't see where the growth potential is elsewhere, I really don't. I think the biggest surprises could come from the Euros because we don't know what they can do at the NHL level yet.

Yeah but that Winnipeg team didn't have a Draisaitl or McDavid yet.
I doubt our bottom 6 scores as little as last year. Tippetts teams always are solid defensively so that will lower our goals against. The rookies for defense are all relatively good at moving the puck so there's that.

If the overall team defense and PK improves and say cuts off 15-20 goals and say our overall group scores 15-20 more goals (entirely possible if the bottom 6 has an average year and a guy like Benson scores 10-15). The team is then hovering around 0 goal differential which is in swinging distance of a wildcard spot.

The thing I don't get is we have seen teams year after year make big huge moves that look phenomenal on paper but still don't make playoffs.

You have to play the games cause hockey is not played on paper.

 

[Soundwave]

I don't know why that's funny. Dylan Stroke played a year in the AHL and was a PPG and last year had 57 points in 78 games.

Colin White had 27 points in 47 games in 17/18 and then last season had 41 in 71.

Players who at Benson's age, hover around a PPG, not surprising if they become 40+ guys the following season. Yamamoto yeah a less of a chance but to entirely write that off is kind of ridiculous.

I mean wasn't that the kool-aid being sold on this board last summer? Puljujarvi and Yamamoto would put up 40+ points each in the NHL? They didn't even get 15 points combined.

That's one of those things that it's a nice to have happen, but you can't be relying on that to happen.

 

[SK13]

I mean wasn't that the kool-aid being sold on this board last summer? Puljujarvi and Yamamoto would put up 40+ points each in the NHL? They didn't even get 15 points combined.

That's one of those things that it's a nice to have happen, but you can't be relying on that to happen.

Um, no, not even a little bit.

We're talking about low-end NHL players hitting a rate of shooting that is in even remotely in range of what low-end NHL players are expected to shoot on any team, regardless of how good or bad they are, not projecting random prospects into top-100 NHL scoring.

This is much more like looking at the historic low Oilers PP% last year. It was almost guaranteed to bounce back without meaningful additions and, what do you know, it did.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I mean wasn't that the kool-aid being sold on this board last summer? Puljujarvi and Yamamoto would put up 40+ points each in the NHL? They didn't even get 15 points combined.

That's one of those things that it's a nice to have happen, but you can't be relying on that to happen.

At the same time you can't also just spend a bunch of draft picks to move out bad contracts and sign expensive UFAs, they don't always turn out either. It's all risks. Holland made a low risk summer, absolute worst case right now is we miss the playoffs and have lost no assets to do so. Making a bunch of moves worst case is you miss the playoffs and have given away a ton of assets to do so.

 

[CupofOil]

Yeah but that Winnipeg team didn't have a Draisaitl or McDavid yet.
I doubt our bottom 6 scores as little as last year. Tippetts teams always are solid defensively so that will lower our goals against. The rookies for defense are all relatively good at moving the puck so there's that.

If the overall team defense and PK improves and say cuts off 15-20 goals and say our overall group scores 15-20 more goals (entirely possible if the bottom 6 has an average year and a guy like Benson scores 10-15). The team is then hovering around 0 goal differential which is in swinging distance of a wildcard spot.

The thing I don't get is we have seen teams year after year make big huge moves that look phenomenal on paper but still don't make playoffs.

You have to play the games cause hockey is not played on paper.

Sure, I would expect more production from the bottom 6 next season but as I mentioned before, it's unlikely that Drai, RNH and Chiasson duplicate those numbers again so it could very well offset. I do expect the GA to be cut down as there was nowhere to go but up in that area and assuming that this hype about Tippett's system being a big upgrade on the previous coaches comes to fruition.

I don't see a roster that will improve by 42!!!! goals next season to break even (and really, it would like take roughly a +10 goal differential to get in the playoffs) but anything is possible I suppose. You have a lot more confidence in the coaching difference than I do because the roster is relatively the same so it would take some serious overachievers to make the playoffs a possibility. We'll see

 

[Soundwave]

Um, no, not even a little bit.

We're talking about low-end NHL players hitting a rate of shooting that is in even remotely in range of what low-end NHL players are expected to shoot on any team, regardless of how good or bad they are, not projecting random prospects into top-100 NHL scoring.

This is much more like looking at the historic low Oilers PP% last year. It was almost guaranteed to bounce back without meaningful additions and, what do you know, it did.

And I can see the Oilers pulling it off again. It would be a Oiler thing to do. I don't look at the bottom six and really have any confidence that they're going to score at a median NHL level.

At this point I'm more concerned about the 2nd line, lol. We can worry about the rest of the trash when we actually get one other scoring line.

 

[McVirginOil]

I don’t know if you have to bank on serious overachieving to make the playoffs the team is most likely a garbage bottom 5’er

 

[SK13]

And I can see the Oilers pulling it off again. It would be a Oiler thing to do. I don't look at the bottom six and really have any confidence that they're going to score at a median NHL level.

You say it would be an "Oilers thing to do" but as far as I see, at the absolute lowest moments of the Oilers, it ahs never happened before. Not at 60 points during the rebuild did this happen before.

Nobody is even asking for median NHL level when we say it's almost 100% certain that shooting rates are better - and it is almost certain. 320 NHL players scored 9 or more goals. The guy you are utilizing as a 2/3LW has to beat 0 goals to overperform the last guy and 9 goals to better all of Lucic, Reider and Khaira combined. Each of those players is more likely to better 9 goals individually next year than for anything resembling that to occur again on any NHL roster ever again. In fact, Lucic, Reider and Khaira all did better 9 goals the year prior.

They can be really, really bad and still score way more goals as a group under the top 3 guys. That is the degree of mathematical underperformance that this group undertook.

 

[ToeMcDrag83]

Expecting Lucic to bounce back and expecting still developing prospects who have proven nothing to step in and suddenly become 40+ point forwards is an asinine assumption.

Using ifs and maybes and projecting situations with no basis besides potential dumb luck shouldn't be used as a defense of Holland's summer.

Damn near every team, including teams who were below us last year AND teams in tighter cap situations, has moved the needle forward on paper more significantly than us with acquiring proven NHL contributors.

I'm fine with Holland's plan being for the long term good, but please don't pretend he's done anything to improve the team for 19-20.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Expecting Lucic to bounce back and expecting still developing prospects who have proven nothing to step in and suddenly become 40+ point forwards is an asinine assumption.

Using ifs and maybes and projecting situations with no basis besides potential dumb luck shouldn't be used as a defense of Holland's summer.

Damn near every team, including teams who were below us last year AND teams in tighter cap situations, has moved the needle forward on paper more significantly than us with acquiring proven NHL contributors.

I'm fine with Holland's plan being for the long term good, but please don't pretend he's done anything to improve the team for 19-20.

Technically if Smith is better than Talbot and Haas, Nygard and Granlund combine for at least 20 goals, that's an improvement

 

[McVirginOil]

If Holland trades RNH for Ristolainen I will be very unhappy

 

[CycloneSweep]

If Holland trades RNH for Ristolainen I will be very unhappy

Where is this coming from?

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Technically if Smith is better than Talbot and Haas, Nygard and Granlund combine for at least 20 goals, that's an improvement

 

[Skolman]

If Holland trades RNH for Ristolainen I will be very unhappy

Likewise, won't happen.

I could see him flipping some picks + prospects for Risto though.

 

[CupofOil]

Technically if Smith is better than Talbot and Haas, Nygard and Granlund combine for at least 20 goals, that's an improvement

Again, this is assuming that Drai scores 50, RNH scores 70 points, Chiasson scores over 20 goals and Nurse 40 points.

You keep harping on improved bottom 6 production but ignoring the fact that 4 players blew away their previous career high and are unlikely to duplicate that success.

 

[MessierII]

Goaltending will determine the year

 

[belair]

Again, this is assuming that Drai scores 50, RNH scores 70 points, Chiasson scores over 20 goals and Nurse 40 points.

You keep harping on improved bottom 6 production but ignoring the fact that 4 players blew away their previous career high and are unlikely to duplicate that success.

McDavid could score 50, Draisaitl 35, Chiasson 12, Gagner 18, RNH 50 points, our third line C 25 points and those numbers would balance themselves out. If we're banking on a regression from our top line, we'd better dial our expectations back on how good this McDavid guy really is.

 

[belair]

Goaltending will determine the year

More or less, this is accurate. Doesn't matter how much we improve the offense output. If we can't stop the puck, we'll be losing a lot of games.

 

[Soundwave]

If Ferland is asking for 4.5 x 2 ... I think you have to do that.

You have to give Connor McDavid a reasonable chance of help,

Ferland RNH Chiasson

May not be the greatest second line, but it's an actual 2nd line.

If you gotta move Manning or Gagner + a pick/prospect to make it happen, then you have to be at least proactive enough to do *that* much.

You're not giving away a top pick or a 5 year contract here, you can compromise to that point surely at least.

 

[guymez]

McDavid could score 50, Draisaitl 35, Chiasson 12, Gagner 18, RNH 50 points, our third line C 25 points and those numbers would balance themselves out. If we're banking on a regression from our top line, we'd better dial our expectations back on how good this McDavid guy really is.

I agree with this. To suggest that Drai isnt going to score 50 is fine but to suggest that he has peaked in point totals is very suspicious IMO.
He still has more to give offensively at his young age...he is not close to peaking offensively.

So I see the goal distribution shifting from what it was last season. That doesnt at all mean that less goals will be scored they will come from more sources.

 

[Del Preston]

Goaltending will determine the year

Mike Smith takes the Oilers to the playoffs. The usuals complain that he played too well and his bonuses are going to screw up next year's cap.