Blue Jays Discussion: Roy Halladay elected to 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame class

[phillipmike]

So I'm with you - let's ignore '17 and '18 drafts for now. Looking at the rest of that list, we have 14 players - and 5 of them are upper-tier superstars. That's a 36% chance of getting a franchise guy if you can grab a top-2 draft pick. I wager if you pulled up a list of guys drafted in the 5+6 or 7+8 range during those same years, your odds would drop to below 15% (2 out of 14 or less). I haven't looked it up, but that's my wager based on that chart above.

The common thinking is that the MLB draft is a total crapshoot, but looking at the graph above, it only seems to turn into a crapshoot after the first 2, and definitely after the first 4 picks. I would really hate to see the Jays win 70 games and end up with the 7th pick when we could finish with 63 wins and end up with the 2nd.

I disagree with you on Sanchize and Stroshow. I think if they start the season well, they're both gone by the deadline - and same goes for every vet on our team. Safe bet is that one of the two plays well and is dealt, and the other struggles and sits on the DL for half the season.

I think a lot of people on this board think we can compete for the wildcard in 2020...I just don't see it, especially since we didn't get any blue chippers for JD or Osuna. I think we need another 1-2 superstar level prospect in our system, and our window starts to swing open around 2022, which is around the time that the Red Sox should start to suck.

The thing is this team is far from a 63 win team so no point in hoping for something that isn’t going to happen.

We won 73 games without Donaldson, Tulo and Osuna for a bulk of the season. Along with a bad injury prone years from Stroman, Sanchez, Estrada and Garcia. Biggest loss is Happ but you still might get value from other places to replace him. I can’t see Stroman and Sanchez being worse (neither can you if you expect to trade 1), Shoemaker might be as good or better than Estrada. Can Richard be worse than Garcia? Possibly but you have SRF, Thornton, and Pannone over guys like Biagini and Gaviglio. Borucki was strong.

You get huge boosts with Vladdy, Jansen and Gurriel. Pitchers should be healthier and better because the defense will be all around better. Those three players are at least a 5 WAR swing that what we had in Donaldson, Solarte and Martin.

Vladdy >>>> Donaldsons 2018 season
Drury > Solarte
Gurriel > Travis
Jansen > Martin
Galvis = Diaz
McKinney = Hernandez

Smoak, Morales and Pillar should be the same. Full year of grichuk should be better. Full year of Giles, along with Tepera, Phelps, Biagini back in the pen and maybe Paulinho could be a better pen.

Not to mention possible reinforcements in Bichette, Biggio, Smith, Alford, Pompey etc.

Team is deeper, younger, healthier and should easily out play the 2018 team. You have a new coaching staff that is ready to prove they are MLB caliber and won’t give up to get a high pick.

Without trades it is a 75 win floor imo. With trades it’s still 70 wins.

It’s not what you want or hope the 2019 team to be it is what it is and it has too much talent to not win 70 games.

Plus you can try to tank there are a lot worse teams out there that will be worse than you. Nothing guarantees you will be the 2nd worse team in the league, you can’t tell players and coaches to lose. So no point to manufacture that when it isn’t guaranteed.

Plus I take my chances with this scouting and development staff in the draft. You don’t need high picks to get great talent.

2016: Bichette refused to sign with any team but the Jays because he felt this development was right for him. Biggio in the 5th and Chavez Young in the 39th
2017: Pearson a late 1st. Smith a 4th.
2018: Groshans and Kloffenstein

I take a decent step forward in wins and development with this group with some selling at the deadline with a top 15 pick than an outright tank for the hopes of a top 2 pick that you may or may not get.

 

[Cor]

Solarte signed with the Giants

 

[BlueForever75]

So long Solarte.

Fun character but bad player

 

[Discoverer]

I don't think the Jays are that far off where the Braves were at this time last year.

 

[IceColdBear]

I don't think the Jays are that far off where the Braves were at this time last year.

The Braves didn't have the Yankees and Red Sox in their division, though, which complicates things.

 

[Discoverer]

The Braves didn't have the Yankees and Red Sox in their division, though, which complicates things.

Of course, but I'm not suggesting they're going to make the playoffs. Last year was basically a best-case-scenario season for the Braves.

I just don't think they're particularly close to "bottom 2" bad.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

The Braves didn't have the Yankees and Red Sox in their division, though, which complicates things.

Just the Nationals, who at the end of Spring Training 2018, had the same world series odds as the Boston Red Sox.

Of course, but I'm not suggesting they're going to make the playoffs. Last year was basically a best-case-scenario season for the Braves.

I just don't think they're particularly close to "bottom 2" bad.

The situations mirror themselves in many, many ways. The similarities are quite clear.

 

[AllDay28]

The Braves didn't have the Yankees and Red Sox in their division, though, which complicates things.

ya they have Washington and Philly

 

[Discoverer]

The situations mirror themselves in many, many ways. The similarities are quite clear.

Don't they? Everything about the team construction (a bunch of depth/role players you're hoping have breakthrough seasons, a couple high-calibre young players, a rotation with a couple young guys and a bunch of reclamation projects) is similar. To me, there are two distinct differences that hold the Jays back: Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman. The Jays have their own Albies in Bichette, but he's unlikely to contribute much this year (and, at most, it'll be half a season). They don't have a Freeman.

 

[phillipmike]

Nola gets 45M over 4 years with an option. Severino gets 40M over 4 years with an option.

I hope Stroman and Sanchez are paying attention. Those are 2 guys coming off Cy young type seasons owe Nola a huge apology, i laugh when someone called that he would win the Cy Young last year) albeit with control, but did give up a year of free agency. Stroman is going to be 30 when he hits free agency and Sanchez will be 29 and unless they have Eovaldi type seasons i cant see them cashing in. They should be talking extensions.

 

[phillipmike]

A Dispatch from the Driveline Pro-Day

Kelleher’s fastball has plus velocity (95.7 average, 96.8 peak), plus-plus rise, and good plane, and he threw 18 of 22 of them for strikes, while operating up in the zone where his heater plays best. His slider averages 3070 rpms, which is about as high as that measure goes (Blue Jays righty Trent Thornton has the highest average breaking ball spin rate among prospects we’ve covered this offseason), and threw 5 of his 7 sliders for strikes

THE BOARD! | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[phillipmike]

I also posted this in another forum as to why i think the Jays will be better this season;

We were a 73 win team last season and FG has us at 77, not the be all end all but i see us improving on the 73 wins;

2018 Position Value:
C: 2.9 WAR
SS: 2.0 WAR
3B: 1.0 WAR
Total: 5.9 WAR

2019 Project Value:
C: 3.1 WAR
SS: 2.2 WAR
3B: 5.2 WAR
Total: 10.5 WAR

--------------------------------------------------

2018 Player Value:
Martin: 0.6 WAR
Tulowitzki: 0.0 WAR
Diaz: 1.6 WAR
Donaldson: 0.8 WAR
Total: 3 WAR

2019 Projection Value:
Former Jays
Martin: 1.1 WAR
Tulowitzki: 1.5 WAR
Diaz: 0.6 WAR
Donaldson: 4.1 WAR
Total: 7.3 WAR

Current Jays
Jansen: 2.7 WAR
Gurriel: 2.1 WAR
Drury: 0.7 WAR
Guerrero: 5.1 WAR
Total: 10.6 WAR

Last year we got 5.9 WAR out of C, SS and 3B - Fangraph projects 10.5 WAR.
Last year we got 3 WAR out Martin, Tulo, Diaz and Donaldson.
Fangraphs projects 7.3 WAR out of Martin, Tulo, Diaz and Donaldson for the 2019 and 10.6 WAR out of Jansen, Gurriel, Drury and Vladdy.

The 2019 should be better than the 2018 by swapping out unproductive old players (sans Diaz) for younger, healthier better players. This should show up in the win column and on field product.

 

[Kurtz]

Don't they? Everything about the team construction (a bunch of depth/role players you're hoping have breakthrough seasons, a couple high-calibre young players, a rotation with a couple young guys and a bunch of reclamation projects) is similar. To me, there are two distinct differences that hold the Jays back: Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman. The Jays have their own Albies in Bichette, but he's unlikely to contribute much this year (and, at most, it'll be half a season). They don't have a Freeman.

But you've noted that it was a best-case scenario for Atlanta. Would you agree that anchoring our expectations to the Atlanta aberration would be highly unlikely/unreasonable?

I'll remind you that at this time last year, many posters on this board (including yourself, Quimby, Zeke, if I'm not mistaken) were predicting that the Jays will be competing for a playoff spot in 2018, and suggesting that we were closer to Red Sox than people think... so there's definitely a bit of a predilection for unbridled enthusiasm for immediate performance among some of the more frequent posters.

 

[Eyedea]

To be fair, the Jays still would’ve been competitive last year if Sanchez and Stroman didn’t struggle with injuries.

 

[Kurtz]

To be fair, the Jays still would’ve been competitive last year if Sanchez and Stroman didn’t struggle with injuries.

We finished 24 games back in the wildcard and 35 games back in the Division. Even if Sanchize, Stro and JD were fully healthy the entire year, I don't think we would have been in the race.

In fairness, we'd have to have won 98 games for the 2nd wild card spot last year, which is rather insane.

 

[Eyedea]

We finished 24 games back in the wildcard and 35 games back in the Division. Even if Sanchize, Stro and JD were fully healthy the entire year, I don't think we would have been in the race.

In fairness, we'd have to have won 98 games for the 2nd wild card spot last year, which is rather insane.

Certainly. The 2nd wildcard would have definitely been out of reach based on their final tally, but I’d also classify a mid/high-80s win club as competitive.

Better health to your stars and those divisional matchups may have tilted a little the other way.

 

[phillipmike]

The Man Behind Canadian Baseball

 

[Discoverer]

But you've noted that it was a best-case scenario for Atlanta. Would you agree that anchoring our expectations to the Atlanta aberration would be highly unlikely/unreasonable?

I'll remind you that at this time last year, many posters on this board (including yourself, Quimby, Zeke, if I'm not mistaken) were predicting that the Jays will be competing for a playoff spot in 2018, and suggesting that we were closer to Red Sox than people think... so there's definitely a bit of a predilection for unbridled enthusiasm for immediate performance among some of the more frequent posters.

If I was anchoring my expectations to the Atlanta aberration I would be predicting a competitive, 90-win season. I expect a win total somewhere in the 70s and would be shocked if it ends up in the 80s or 60s. For the former, they would need to basically be the 2018 Braves and have a bunch of their bench players and journeymen and reclamation projects turn into 2-3 WAR players. For the latter, they would need most of their players to continue their downward trends and a bunch of their rookies to fall flat. Neither is impossible by any means, but neither is likely.

I think viewing this team as a low-60s win total competing for worst team in the league is the opposite end of the spectrum from thinking they will be the 2018 Braves. They're built the same way as the Braves and have similar upside, but I don't expect 90 wins because the season the Braves just had is basically a 99th percentile result (just as I would argue the Jays 2018 season was).

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I mean...the steamer 600 numbers for the Jays don't look like a low-60's win team.

The Vegas line for the Jays win total is 77.5.

 

[Anthrax442]

I mean...the steamer 600 numbers for the Jays don't look like a low-60's win team.

The Vegas line for the Jays win total is 77.5.

Regardless of the wins, it will be fun to follow the growth of the young players.

 

[Kurtz]

I mean...the steamer 600 numbers for the Jays don't look like a low-60's win team.

The Vegas line for the Jays win total is 77.5.

Wow, that's basically free money, I think (unless the payout is -150 or something).

Fair enough, we'll see what happens. I predict that we'll go scorched earth with our vets early this year and that our rookies won't be enough to pull us into mid 70's in wins.

 

[hockeywiz542]

2019 International Prospects To Watch Version 2.0

Rikelvin de Castro, SS, Dominican Republic

A lean, 6-foot shortstop, de Castro is a high-energy, hard-nosed player with a chance to develop into a plus defender, making challenging plays look easy. He's a righthanded hitter with a quick, loose stroke and gap power. Castro trains with Angel Perez and is expected to sign with the Blue Jays, likely for north of $1 million.

 

[phillipmike]

Bowden: Ranking baseball's Top 200 prospects, Part 4 (50-1)

1	Vlad	Guerrero
12	Bo	Bichette
59	Danny	Jansen
70	Cavan	Biggio
89	Nate	Pearson
102	Eric	Pardinho
105	Kevin	Smith
107	Jordan	Groshans
138	Sean	Reid-Foley

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[phillipmike]

Rob Longley on Twitter

 

[phillipmike]

Keith Law just fainted somewhere;