Blue Jays Discussion: Roy Halladay elected to 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame class

[The Nemesis]

A weird list but a list nonetheless

https://www.radioscouts.com/blog/organizational-review-top-50-blue-jays-prospects

That's a serious "look at us, we're different and that makes us interesting, yeah?" type list.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[kb]

Welcome back Josh Thole!!

 

[phillipmike]

Gibby moves out and knuckler moves in, thats pretty funny

 

[phillipmike]

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Discoverer]

Ugh... Clayton Richard doesn't belong in the rotation.

 

[Cor]

Won't hand a spot to Borucki, but will hand one to Shoemaker and Richard.

Okay then.

Seemed like it would be better just to say "We'll see how spring training progresses to see who ends up in the rotation".

 

[Discoverer]

Won't hand a spot to Borucki, but will hand one to Shoemaker and Richard.

Okay then.

Seemed like it would be better just to say "We'll see how spring training progresses to see who ends up in the rotation".

Teams say this kind of stuff all the time to keep young guys motivated.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[The Nemesis]

Mew hew hew hew. Cram it, Bauer. You know how these things work by now. You've been through it before. It's not personal. Lord knows that if you could get more money by throwing Francona or management under the bus, you'd probably do it.

 

[theaub]

Dude needs to shut up but character isn't something that should be discussed in an arbitration hearing.

 

[Discoverer]

Dude needs to shut up but character isn't something that should be discussed in an arbitration hearing.

But it always is and always has been. That's why both sides usually try to avoid it and a lot of players have left it to their agents and stayed out of it entirely.

 

[The Nemesis]

Over on The Athletic Jim Bowden is ranking the top 200 prospects in baseball.

Standard Jim Bowden warning, but he's done 200-101 so far:

Bowden: Ranking baseball's Top 200 prospects, Part 1...
Bowden: Ranking baseball's Top 200 prospects, Part 2...

138: Sean Reid-Foley

Spoiler

138. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 23 Height: 6-3 Weight: 221 Bats: R Throws: R
Scouting Grades
FB: 55 CB: 45 SLI: 45 CH: 50 CTL: 45 CMND: 45
Stats (AA/AAA)
W-L: 12-5 ERA: 3.26 IP: 129.2 H: 103 BB: 50 SO: 122
Reid-Foley has above-average fastball velocity, but below-average command of the pitch, which will have to improve if he’s going to reach his potential. His breaking balls both lack consistency right now, but he does flash them average or above at times. As he continues to develop his breaking balls and command, he should end up as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater at the very least.

107: Jordan Groshans

Spoiler

107. Jordan Groshans, SS/3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 19 Height: 6-3 Weight: 178 Bats: R Throws: R
Scouting Grades
ARM: 55 FLD: 50 HIT: 55 PWR: 55 RUN: 50
Stats (Rookie)
Slash: .296/.353/.447 2B: 13 HR: 5 RBI: 43
Groshans has an incredible ceiling offensively and should fly up this board over the next couple of years. He can really hit, with consistent, loud sweet-spot contact. He hits line drives from foul line to foul line and has above-average pull power. Defensively, third base is his best position and he’s got a strong arm.

105: Kevin Smith

Spoiler

105. Kevin Smith, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 22 Height: 6-1 Weight: 188 Bats: R Throws: R
Scouting Grades
ARM: 60 FLD: 50 HIT: 45 PWR: 60 RUN: 50
Stats (A)
Slash: .302/.358/.528 2B: 31 HR: 25 RBI: 93 SB: 29
Smith might not light up the tool meter but he’s solid at shortstop with sure hands, good first-step quickness to both sides and a strong and accurate arm. He has a tremendous work ethic and passion for learning, which results in rapid development in most areas of his game. He’s definitely going to be an overachiever. Offensively, the power and baserunning instincts are real.

102: Eric Pardinho

Spoiler

102. Eric Pardinho, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 18 Height: 5-10 Weight: 155 Bats: R Throws: R
Scouting Grades
FB: 55 CB: 55 SLI: 50 CH: 50 CTL: 45 CMND: 50
Stats (Rookie)
W-L: 4-3 ERA: 2.88 IP: 50 H: 37 BB: 16 SO: 64
Pardinho has a clean delivery and tremendous pitchability. It’s amazing at his age that he’s already learned to add and subtract with all of his pitches and hit the catcher’s mitt without it needing to move. His fastball is slightly above average and his curveball and slider both miss bats when they’re on. He added a new changeup to his arsenal last year and it’s definitely a workable pitch already. He’s got savvy and should move quickly, despite his youth.

 

[xtra]

But it always is and always has been. That's why both sides usually try to avoid it and a lot of players have left it to their agents and stayed out of it entirely.

Just cause it’s done doesn’t mean it should be. Espically stuff like oh he’s bad cause he donated money to charity; are the Indians saying charity work is wrong?

 

[Discoverer]

Just cause it’s done doesn’t mean it should be. Espically stuff like oh he’s bad cause he donated money to charity; are the Indians saying charity work is wrong?

Let's keep in mind that this is Bauer's description of what happened and Bauer is an idiot.

 

[phillipmike]

Picks to Click: Who We Expect to Make the 2020 Top 100

When publishing our lists — in particular, the top 100 — we’re frequently asked who, among the players excluded from this year’s version, might have the best chance of appearing on next year’s version. Whose stock are we buying? This post represents our best attempt to answer all of those questions at once.

Teenage Pitchers
Eric Pardinho, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Adam Kloffenstein, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)

The “This is What They Look Like” Group
Jordan Groshans, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)

Potentially Dominant Relievers
Trent Thornton, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)

Vladdy and Jansen will be off the list next year, maybe Bo too. Nice that we have at least 3 contenders that might join Pearson on next years list. I personally think Thornton and SRF will be ineligible as i expect them to be on the 2019 Jays. Still have others that could make it too; Martinez, Young, Hiraldo, Perez, Diaz etc.

2019 Impact Prospects

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
5. Danny Jansen

 

[Anthrax442]

If they don't want him, I'll take him

 

[Kurtz]

Ugh... Clayton Richard doesn't belong in the rotation.

May I suggest that we may be...tanking? And I don't mean just playing the young guys, I'm talking about deliberately tanking the season utterly and completely in order to get a top 2 pick.

Check out the chart from Baseball Prospectus below - there's massive drop off in surplus value after the first 2 picks.

NBA teams have been employing the tank as an increasingly viable strategy for a better part of the decade (if not more). NHL teams have been slower to embrace it, but then again NHL is usually a few years behind on any sort of innovation.

In MLB, a complete tank is a little more unbearable, given that the season is mighty long and 1 superstar player won't turn around your franchise - but that graph indicates that if you are going to be bad regardless, it pays off to be really really really bad.

Edit: Forgot to add the most compelling reason to tank - No draft lottery!

 

[phillipmike]

If thats the case then the Jays are doing a very poor job at tanking.

There 2019 team if healthy should win at least 70, likelier to get 75-80 and in the best of case 80+. Injuries and regression is what held the team back in 2017 and 2018 and after only have 3 players with 2+ WAR seasons i doubt there any case for "regression." 70 wins should be nowhere near a top 2 pick and personally i rather the Jays not tank. There have been many cases where at least 1 of the top two picks turned into nothing or flamed out. This team has a strong prospect pool and a good floor, they could be on the cusp of competing in 2-3 seasons and a tank year could potentially set them back.

 

[Kurtz]

If thats the case then the Jays are doing a very poor job at tanking.

There 2019 team if healthy should win at least 70, likelier to get 75-80 and in the best of case 80+. Injuries and regression is what held the team back in 2017 and 2018 and after only have 3 players with 2+ WAR seasons i doubt there any case for "regression." 70 wins should be nowhere near a top 2 pick and personally i rather the Jays not tank. There have been many cases where at least 1 of the top two picks turned into nothing or flamed out. This team has a strong prospect pool and a good floor, they could be on the cusp of competing in 2-3 seasons and a tank year could potentially set them back.

Last year the Orioles were historically bad - but most other years, 63 wins or so gets you a top 2 pick.

I think we're within striking range of that number after we deal Stroman, Sanchez, Smoak, Giles and Pillar, and any other vet in our bullpen who is performing well.

Can you imagine the atrocity that our starting rotation can become once we deal Stro and Sanchize? Ditto our bullpen sans Giles? And our hitting is going to be bottom-tier regardless.

I think our farm has a lot of depth, but an additional superstar prospect to compliment Vlad would go a long way for the next 7 years.

 

[phillipmike]

Last year the Orioles were historically bad - but most other years, 63 wins or so gets you a top 2 pick.

I think we're within striking range of that number after we deal Stroman, Sanchez, Smoak, Giles and Pillar, and any other vet in our bullpen who is performing well.

Can you imagine the atrocity that our starting rotation can become once we deal Stro and Sanchize? Ditto our bullpen sans Giles? And our hitting is going to be bottom-tier regardless.

I think our farm has a lot of depth, but an additional superstar prospect to compliment Vlad would go a long way for the next 7 years.

If it happens naturally then so be it but i dont think they should be tanking for a top 2 pick look at the last few years;

2010: Harper and Taillon
2011: Cole and Hultzen
2012: Correra and Buxton
2013: Appel and Bryant
2014: Aiken and Kolek
2015: Swanson and Bregman
2016: Moniak and Senzel
2017: Lewis and Greene
2018: Mize and Bart

Cant really comment on the last two years and even Senzel yet. I would say Moniak was a disappointment, so far Swanson is as well. Hultzen, Appel, Aiken and Kolek all forgettable. Taillon and Buxton are good players but you can see similar or better players cant be had later in the draft. I count 5 game changes out of a possible 12 in the 2010-2015 drafts. Sure higher picks are better but successful drafting says more about your scouting and development than anything.

I agree with you about the rotation and pen IF we deal all those guys. Personally the only pitcher i see us moving for sure is Giles and that is IF he is having a good season. I dont think Stroman and Sanchez are destined to be moved.

I disagree about the hitting; Jays were 17th in runs scored last season, i expect that number to be much better with full seasons of Vladdy, Jansen and Gurriel. Outside of Martin and Donaldson the team is the same with better additions and Martin and Donaldson put up a combined 59 runs. Galvis replaces Diaz and Drury replaces Solarte. They hitting should be a strength this season. I dont think Pillar will be a huge loss with Pompey and Alford waiting in the wings. Smoak will be for sure if he is traded.

 

[Kurtz]

If it happens naturally then so be it but i dont think they should be tanking for a top 2 pick look at the last few years;

2010: Harper and Taillon
2011: Cole and Hultzen
2012: Correra and Buxton
2013: Appel and Bryant
2014: Aiken and Kolek
2015: Swanson and Bregman
2016: Moniak and Senzel
2017: Lewis and Greene
2018: Mize and Bart

Cant really comment on the last two years and even Senzel yet. I would say Moniak was a disappointment, so far Swanson is as well. Hultzen, Appel, Aiken and Kolek all forgettable. Taillon and Buxton are good players but you can see similar or better players cant be had later in the draft. I count 5 game changes out of a possible 12 in the 2010-2015 drafts. Sure higher picks are better but successful drafting says more about your scouting and development than anything.

I agree with you about the rotation and pen IF we deal all those guys. Personally the only pitcher i see us moving for sure is Giles and that is IF he is having a good season. I dont think Stroman and Sanchez are destined to be moved.

I disagree about the hitting; Jays were 17th in runs scored last season, i expect that number to be much better with full seasons of Vladdy, Jansen and Gurriel. Outside of Martin and Donaldson the team is the same with better additions and Martin and Donaldson put up a combined 59 runs. Galvis replaces Diaz and Drury replaces Solarte. They hitting should be a strength this season. I dont think Pillar will be a huge loss with Pompey and Alford waiting in the wings. Smoak will be for sure if he is traded.

So I'm with you - let's ignore '17 and '18 drafts for now. Looking at the rest of that list, we have 14 players - and 5 of them are upper-tier superstars. That's a 36% chance of getting a franchise guy if you can grab a top-2 draft pick. I wager if you pulled up a list of guys drafted in the 5+6 or 7+8 range during those same years, your odds would drop to below 15% (2 out of 14 or less). I haven't looked it up, but that's my wager based on that chart above.

The common thinking is that the MLB draft is a total crapshoot, but looking at the graph above, it only seems to turn into a crapshoot after the first 2, and definitely after the first 4 picks. I would really hate to see the Jays win 70 games and end up with the 7th pick when we could finish with 63 wins and end up with the 2nd.

I disagree with you on Sanchize and Stroshow. I think if they start the season well, they're both gone by the deadline - and same goes for every vet on our team. Safe bet is that one of the two plays well and is dealt, and the other struggles and sits on the DL for half the season.

I think a lot of people on this board think we can compete for the wildcard in 2020...I just don't see it, especially since we didn't get any blue chippers for JD or Osuna. I think we need another 1-2 superstar level prospect in our system, and our window starts to swing open around 2022, which is around the time that the Red Sox should start to suck.

 

[LaPlante94]

May I suggest that we may be...tanking? And I don't mean just playing the young guys, I'm talking about deliberately tanking the season utterly and completely in order to get a top 2 pick.

Check out the chart from Baseball Prospectus below - there's massive drop off in surplus value after the first 2 picks.

NBA teams have been employing the tank as an increasingly viable strategy for a better part of the decade (if not more). NHL teams have been slower to embrace it, but then again NHL is usually a few years behind on any sort of innovation.

In MLB, a complete tank is a little more unbearable, given that the season is mighty long and 1 superstar player won't turn around your franchise - but that graph indicates that if you are going to be bad regardless, it pays off to be really really really bad.

Edit: Forgot to add the most compelling reason to tank - No draft lottery!

Tanking in the NHL is a much higher risk though. You only have a 25% chance of getting the 1st pick if you finish last. The way the NHL has it with the draft lottery is to get teams to not purposely tank because it's not good for the sport and it's not good for the fans paying money to come watch these games live.

Edit: just saw the part about you saying no draft lottery. Ignore this if you want haha

 

[Discoverer]

May I suggest that we may be...tanking? And I don't mean just playing the young guys, I'm talking about deliberately tanking the season utterly and completely in order to get a top 2 pick.

Check out the chart from Baseball Prospectus below - there's massive drop off in surplus value after the first 2 picks.

NBA teams have been employing the tank as an increasingly viable strategy for a better part of the decade (if not more). NHL teams have been slower to embrace it, but then again NHL is usually a few years behind on any sort of innovation.

In MLB, a complete tank is a little more unbearable, given that the season is mighty long and 1 superstar player won't turn around your franchise - but that graph indicates that if you are going to be bad regardless, it pays off to be really really really bad.

Edit: Forgot to add the most compelling reason to tank - No draft lottery!

I mean... they're quite obviously not actively trying to compete right now, but outright tanking? I don't see it. What moves have they made to intentionally make the team worse this offseason? One of my biggest complaints so far has been that they haven't done enough of the "dump productive veterans for prospects" type moves. Plus there are definitely a few teams doing a much, much better job of being bad. A lot will have to go wrong for them to finish bottom two. Maybe they're looking at it as "If it costs is a couple wins, that's ok" but "Hopefully he makes us lose more" is a little much.

I could see the argument that giving Richard a spot is a service time thing, though. The other candidates for the spot are basically all prospects. Give Richard a month in the rotation before you promote SRF or Thornton and get the seventh year. I don't know.

Either way it's stupid. Richard is amazing at one thing and they're going to intentionally make him do stuff he's bad at.