Blue Jays Discussion: Roy Halladay elected to 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame class

Mach85

Registered User
Mar 14, 2013
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671
I think Preller built a fantastic farm probably one of the best we have seen in recent years. The challenge for any GM is taking it to the next step, many GMs have and can strip a team down and rebuild young assets. It’s the difficulty of actually reaping the rewards and seeing results, something many teams struggle with. I’d like to see what happens next for the Padres.

Aside from potentially huge blunders in the Hosmer signings and the Myers extensions (not as bad but they look better without it) there are other important reasons as to why I don’t the Preller is a “dope” GM. Let’s just leave it at that.

I still have him near the middle of the pack though.
Could you expand on that for my curiosity? I think the Myers extension is mostly hindsight and wasn't egregious at the time, especially considering what else they had at the time. He was looking like a nice multi-tool player having his breakout. Then the Hosmer signing came, which I really didn't like. Not because they weren't ready to contend, because I'm with Eyedea in that I've come to like the idea (hey! finally got to use "Eyedea" and "idea" in the same sentence here) of signing big-ticket FAs a couple years before the team is ready to blow; but because I didn't buy Hosmer as being as good as he'd shown in his walk year (a lot of people held that sentiment) and because he forced Myers to stay in the OF or be dealt, and Myers is ass in the OF.

But, even the best GMs make horrible moves at times. It comes with trying to stay ahead of the curve and be progressive, and just plain luck. Look at Steve Yzerman. Walked away with a sterling rep and his franchise in amazing shape. But he also drafted Tony DeAngelo (everyone and their mother knew about the attitude issues, so it's not on the scouts) with Schmaltz, Fabbri, Kapanen going right after, and of course Pasta a few picks later. He also traded two 2nd round picks and a 3rd for Anders Lindback.

Those are just two examples. No GM is going to hit 100% of the time, or even 90% of the time. They just need to hit consistently over a long period of time, and limit the big misses or counter them with big hits (like Kyle Quincey for the first that became Vasilevskiy).

Preller seems to be able to hit consistently - he's built up an amazing farm in just a few years. And he seems able to not only counter the big misses (Hosmer deal, who could bounce back this year anyway for all we know) with big hits (running-on-fumes Big Game James for the 2nd-best--sorry, Keith--prospect in the game). He seems like a bright guy and progressive thinker; which, granted, he took too far on the Pomeranz debacle, but I'm sure he learned from that. And I'd rather have someone reign in outside-the-box-thinking than be too much of a traditionalist. He uses all sources available to a club to build his roster: the draft, IFAs, analytics, trades, and even signed the biggest FA in history (until Harper signs) and no one saw it coming.

The jury is still out on the Shapkins era here in Toronto, and I was and am still willing to give them proper slack in seeing what they can build. Their track record in Cleveland is obviously promising and suggests they're capable. But I would be very happy with A.J. Preller if I were a Pads fan - I definitely think he's a dope GM.
 

phillipmike

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
12,480
8,272
Could you expand on that for my curiosity? I think the Myers extension is mostly hindsight and wasn't egregious at the time, especially considering what else they had at the time. He was looking like a nice multi-tool player having his breakout. Then the Hosmer signing came, which I really didn't like. Not because they weren't ready to contend, because I'm with Eyedea in that I've come to like the idea (hey! finally got to use "Eyedea" and "idea" in the same sentence here) of signing big-ticket FAs a couple years before the team is ready to blow; but because I didn't buy Hosmer as being as good as he'd shown in his walk year (a lot of people held that sentiment) and because he forced Myers to stay in the OF or be dealt, and Myers is ass in the OF.

But, even the best GMs make horrible moves at times. It comes with trying to stay ahead of the curve and be progressive, and just plain luck. Look at Steve Yzerman. Walked away with a sterling rep and his franchise in amazing shape. But he also drafted Tony DeAngelo (everyone and their mother knew about the attitude issues, so it's not on the scouts) with Schmaltz, Fabbri, Kapanen going right after, and of course Pasta a few picks later. He also traded two 2nd round picks and a 3rd for Anders Lindback.

Those are just two examples. No GM is going to hit 100% of the time, or even 90% of the time. They just need to hit consistently over a long period of time, and limit the big misses or counter them with big hits (like Kyle Quincey for the first that became Vasilevskiy).

Preller seems to be able to hit consistently - he's built up an amazing farm in just a few years. And he seems able to not only counter the big misses (Hosmer deal, who could bounce back this year anyway for all we know) with big hits (running-on-fumes Big Game James for the 2nd-best--sorry, Keith--prospect in the game). He seems like a bright guy and progressive thinker; which, granted, he took too far on the Pomeranz debacle, but I'm sure he learned from that. And I'd rather have someone reign in outside-the-box-thinking than be too much of a traditionalist. He uses all sources available to a club to build his roster: the draft, IFAs, analytics, trades, and even signed the biggest FA in history (until Harper signs) and no one saw it coming.

The jury is still out on the Shapkins era here in Toronto, and I was and am still willing to give them proper slack in seeing what they can build. Their track record in Cleveland is obviously promising and suggests they're capable. But I would be very happy with A.J. Preller if I were a Pads fan - I definitely think he's a dope GM.

All my points have been pretty much stated already, you can take a look. In summary everything has to do with future opportunity cost, the signings of Hosmer and Myers will take up anywhere between 30-45% of the Padres budget in 2020 to 2022. And to do that on players you could have filled internally with potentially 4-6 years of control on pre-arb and arb deals (Renfroe, Reyes, Janokoswki, Margot, Naylor etc.) makes it look that much worse. These long term deals on non-premier players can adversely affect the Padres long term plans on what they can and cannot do in their competitive window. There is good, there is bad in his tenure and the good outweighs the bad so far - but the bad can prevent the good from shining in their window if/when that comes.
 

phillipmike

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
12,480
8,272
MLB Top 100: Ranking Trout, Harper and...Vlad Jr.?

Vlad is the only Jay to make the list at 100.

Like winter or Gabbo, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is coming. When he arrives, he’s poised to deliver some serious thunder. Consider what he accomplished at Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Buffalo last year at 19 years old: .402/.449/.671 at the former, .336/.414/.564 at the latter, and just one fewer walk than strikeouts combined. And he was doing this against pitchers anywhere from five to 10 years his senior. The son of a Hall of Famer who was one of the best natural hitters of his era, Vladito promises to be a special player immediately, even if he should have debuted last year. — Jon Tayler

The Big Number: 2 | Only two hitters in the 21st century have gotten 500 or more plate appearances in their age-20 season and put up an OPS+ of 125 or better: Jason Heyward and Mike Trout. Bet on Vlad Jr. becoming the third.
 

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