He's basically a big player who can skate some. Flashes the odd play. That was my impression at the u18s, but he also got stapled to Boqvist and good d-men and played a ton.
If anything I think it's the reverse. Boqvist who got to play with Ginning. Team Sweden have been using Ginning as their premier shutdown defenseman in international play all season long. Him and Filip Johansson were terrific as a defensive shutdown pair at the Ivan Hlinka in August, allowing Sandin and Boqvist to focus on the offensive side, which I think was one of the reasons Boqvist was so good in that tourney.
I don't think the U18 worlds was Ginnings best performance, but the rest of the year he was dominant in international play and got some rave reviews at the Five Nations in February IIRC.
At his best Ginning can just completely choke the opposing teams offense with his size, physicality, board work, positional smarts and first pass. In that regard he actually reminds me a lot of the player Adam Larsson has become. And I mean that in a good way, I'm probably a lot higher on Larsson than most people (especially since the Hall trade which has lead to Larsson being really undervalued and unfairly criticized).
The problem for me has been that he hasn't been able to do that as consistently either in J20 in Sweden or in SHL as he does internationally. So the main question for me is if he can translate the type of game he plays against bigger and stronger opponents or if he is only able to do it because of his size and strength relative to other U18 players. As a staunch Ginning supporter for over 2 years I believe he can.
Ginning is a defensive defenseman; his strength is coverage and boards work in his own end. That's a possible issue with a high value pick but not my issue. You can indeed be a valuable defensive defender. The issue is identifying those players among NHL people is terribly skewed towards being big or physical or playing in your own end. They're simply poor at identifying what a good defensive defenseman is. Mattias Samuelsson is no one's idea of a puck mover, though he's better than Ginning, but he's quick thinking and in control and has play driving attributes. Alec Regula, a RHD on the board (who I would've preferred they took to Ginning if they were dead-set on this rote), is very smart all over the ice and actually the best with the puck of the 3.
Samuelsson is a good comparison for Ginning, but I think Samuelsson is more polished (and therefore safer) at this stage but I think both guys have similar upside. These guys are not the oldschool defensive defensemen who are only big and physical, these guys can actually play too.
Ginning is just not that good with the puck. He's not good at making reads and seeing the ice, and he's not good handling pucks. Any zone. Way too many times I've seen him bobble pucks. When he passes, he has a habit of just pushing the puck forward and snapping it with no touch because he can't handle it very well on his blade. When he has less time to make decisions on small ice, I think he'll get even simpler with it. Questionable puck moving and hands and creativity are not a strong link to upside. It's possible to still drive play, but you have to be downright exceptional at other areas. We'll see if he is.
I actually think he's better in these areas than he gets credit for. He doesn't have the natural puck-handling skills to be a legit PPQB right now, but that can still be improved. On the other hand I actually really like his creativity and his hands are pretty decent for a big defenseman. The guy can and will rush the puck when he sees an opening. I've seen him score amazing goals where he goes almost end-to-end, beats his guy to the outside and scores. And he'll deke guys out in the neutral zone if the opportunity presents itself. I think that's an aspect of his game that not many people know about. He actually has some solid offensive instincts. If anything it's his shot I'd like to see him improve.
I don't see Ginning necessarily as a defensive defenseman at the NHL level. I mean that may end up being his role eventually, but he absolutely has upside to be a 20-30 point two-way top4 D in the NHL. I think his ceiling is something like a defense-first guy on a top pairing (similar to Larsson) or a #3D who is driving the play on a 2nd pairing. Who knows if he reaches it though.
Also I do think his passing is fine. He's not someone who's gonna give you an amazing stretch pass like a Boqvist or Bouchard but he has a solid outlet pass. At his best he goes into the corners, wins the puck battle and then quickly moves the puck up ice. I don't know if the Ivan Hlinka footage is out there somewhere but if it is, go back and watch Ginning there. He did this routinely shift after shift, game after game and it was incredible to watch just how easy it looked for him. Guys who can do that consistently are super valuable to have on your team.
The Flyers wanted a big, safe, defensive d-man (Hextall's first words out of his mouth about Ginning were size and character), and this should put to rest any thoughts that the Flyers, from every level of their organization, don't value Hagg types. It's like we are doomed to have these Hagg debates forever. The Flyers wanted defense in case they lost one in expansion. They seemingly took another 3rd pair ceiling player, whose on-ice performance might be replacement level (which is better than Hagg), in case they lost the d-man most affordable to lose. I don't see an objective top 4 talent here, though there's a good bet he'll get overplayed if he's here. As I alluded to in my write-ups, Ginning is the type who gets overdrafted on hype while similar types or better will go in the mid rounds.
I can definitely understand the general sentiment that Ginning is a low upside pick and personally I wouldn't have taken him at #40 with the Oilers pick, but at #50 with the options which was still there among defensemen I don't know if I'd take any of them over Ginning. Forwards would be a different story though.
Andersson is an interesting debate but he's a guy whose upside is very tough to judge. He never really showed an ability to elevate his play and play with the best in an international setting. There's a reason the coaches relied a lot more heavily on guys like Ginning, Boqvist, Sandin and Johansson over him. I really like his tools. He's smart, good passer, good mobility, good shot, but he doesn't really have any elite trait or anything that sticks out about his game that you can say for sure is going to translate to the NHL. And even if he does make it I'm not sure if he's more than a smallish puck-moving #4/5 defenseman. I think he shares some similarities with Kris Russell.
Sorry for the long post, just wanted to try and clarify some stuff. Ginning has been one of my favorite prospects to follow the past 2 seasons so I thought I'd chime in with some of my thoughts and impressions.
Btw I know it's not much but here's one example of Ginning using his hands to create offense and add an assist to his name:
