Points aren't scored in a vacuum. Provorov won't play PP1 here. And he shouldn't. He put up 41 points playing top 10 ES d-man minutes, playing heavily with the top forwards on the team, all of whom had career years they are likely to not repeat. If you want to project PP2 improving and Ivan adding another 5-7 PP points (which would put him at 10-12 PP points; a good haul for PP2), we're still only talking ~45 points. And while it's easy to assume improvement, we're at the "show me" stage, and it's arguable if he's even the 2nd best PP QB defenseman.
And that's all if Provorov maintains his 11th highest scoring ES point pace (17th in p/60 for >1000 minutes). He's clearly a very good ES scorer who also gets a lot of minutes, but the idea he could regress there, or have bad years, to even any PP increase isn't crazy talk to me. Better offensive d-men than him have had it happen. And he scored 9 non-5v5 ES points; also an incredible amount he might not repeat. I think that's 3rd highest behind Pietrangelo and Doughty. At the least, I don't see how he improves from that. My general point being he scored 41 points. How much more are we predicting? It's very likely 40-45 points is his usage ceiling.
I get he's our robotic dude, but he's not Doughty. He will likely never be Doughty, and that's not a comparable. Why he even gets compared to UFAs makes no sense to me. There is precedent: Slavin (7 years x $5.3 mil); Lindholm (6 years x $5.2 mil); Jones (6 years x $5.4 mil); Hamilton (6 years x $5.75 mil).....you get my point. If the contract is 7-8 years, and you want to set the bar knowing the cap is rising, and go in the low 6s, it's hard to gripe. But he's not almost $3 mil better than all of them. And you don't pay Norris level money, at or near $8 mil, to an RFA off their ELC unless you feel confident he will blow past it within a couple years or better yet, he's already there. It'd be as crazy to me as paying Patrick "Eichel Money" if he hits 60 points this year. I think this is mostly what we get with Ivan, just improving within that in the metrics -- for which he was actually rather reliant on $4.5 mil Gostisbehere. I'd be very curious to see what Werenski gets because he's THE best comparable. And frankly, his scoring upside is probably higher, but if Seth Jones eats away his PP usage, like he did this year, than it gets even more interesting a comparison.