Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick 7: Ivan Provorov, D, Brandon (WHL)

[MacDonald4MVP]

How is Provy getting those extra 9 points to get to 50? And I say that honestly.

He was 1st in goals...so not much room there to improve.
He was 8th in ES points. Give him 5 more points and that is top 3 at ES.
Then give him 4 more on the PP?

Honestly, they only way he gets to 50 is for us to fix the #2PP unit or if Ghost got hurt(gulp) and Provy spent a few months on the top unit.

Besides that, him getting to 40 again next year will be another good year.

Provy saw 50% bump in his 5on5 scoring playing next to Ghost and they only played together for like half a year. Plus 2nd pp can't possibly do any worse than what we saw last year. Well unless we end up resigning poopfulla.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

He'd hit 50 points easy next year if he cut 2 inches off of his stick.

What's up with that? Why don't he he keeps that fricking pole just for pk and uses a normal one.

 

[Stizzle]

I haven't read this thread thoroughly, so forgive me if this was already brought up.

Wouldn't a 2 year deal makes sense now? Then sign the 8 year deal afterwards. That would take him to his age 32(?) season and make it a lot easier to possibly cut bait and not sign a suckers extension, than him arriving to free agency at his age 30 season.

Or look at it another way. It just guarantees us another 2 years on him without even factoring in the way, way distant future.

 

[Winston Wolf]

What's up with that? Why don't he he keeps that fricking pole just for pk and uses a normal one.

Yeah, I had the same thought during the season. He clearly has the skills and hands to make offensive plays in tight, but he usually fumbles the puck because it's impossible to handle the puck when he runs out of space as he approaches the net. I also doubt he fans on the puck in the 3rd period of game 6 with a stick that doesn't have a 4 inch extension.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I haven't read this thread thoroughly, so forgive me if this was already brought up.

Wouldn't a 2 year deal makes sense now? Then sign the 8 year deal afterwards. That would take him to his age 32(?) season and make it a lot easier to possibly cut bait and not sign a suckers extension, than him arriving to free agency at his age 30 season.

Or look at it another way. It just guarantees us another 2 years on him without even factoring in the way, way distant future.

The catch is that they're going to want to lock him up no matter what and they have oodles of cap space now. The more you dollars you push up front, the better rate you can get on the rest of the deal, etc.

If you sign him long-term, you'll be buying 4 RFA years, then the rest UFA. Some want to give him the full 8, which would up the AAV a bit, but more importantly make him hit UFA status at 30. Personally, I'd rather sign him for 6, then lock him up again at 28. You'll pay more in AAV for those two years, but you'll also likely not have to sign him as deep into his 30s.

 

[Magua]

The catch is that they're going to want to lock him up no matter what and they have oodles of cap space now. The more you dollars you push up front, the better rate you can get on the rest of the deal, etc.

If you sign him long-term, you'll be buying 4 RFA years, then the rest UFA. Some want to give him the full 8, which would up the AAV a bit, but more importantly make him hit UFA status at 30. Personally, I'd rather sign him for 6, then lock him up again at 28. You'll pay more in AAV for those two years, but you'll also likely not have to sign him as deep into his 30s.

Very much this. They're not bridging him for umpteen reasons including......there is no financial benefit; that would be offensive to Provorov's camp; and they are rightfully gaga over him. Lock up your core. We know they won't. But should they, just for argument's sake? I don't see it.

I also like 6 years better. Them cutting ties with Provorov after his first big contract seems so unlikely at this stage. So, factoring in his next contract, signing him from age 28-36 sounds a lot better than age 38. We are starting to talk 15 years from now, which is horrifying in an existential and projecting sense, but he's probably the type who might age well for that 2nd contract. Also, a secondary benefit to 6 years: those 6 years might be the best chance to win and you'd be keeping the $$ down a bit. Hextall has never signed a player to 7 or 8 years as an RFA, but if he does, it'll be for Provorov. I won't gripe if he does, money amount provided, but 6 does sound more tempting than 8. Hextall signed Ghost to 6 years off a horrible puck luck season. A bridge with their "#1" defenseman won't and shouldn't happen.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I’m more focused on the Hakstol extension honestly.

 

[The Burdened]

Hextall signed Ghost to 6 years off a horrible puck luck season. A bridge with their "#1" defenseman won't and shouldn't happen.

Imagine if the Ghost deal was a bridge deal?
We'd be looking the very real possibility of having to pay him in the ballpark of 8,000,000 sooner rather than later. We now have him at almost 50% discount for the next 5.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

I’m more focused on the Hakstol extension honestly.

Oh, dude, serious party foul.

 

[AdamParrot]

8x8 would be solid.
8x7 would be OK.
8x6,5 would f***ing steal.

 

[EXTRAS]

Parayko or Provorov?

 

[Rebels57]

Parayko or Provorov?

The one whose name you dont hear in trade rumors.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

The one whose name you dont hear in trade rumors.

Well Provorov was all over the ROR main board threads, so I’ll assume really meant Kalynuk. I agree.

 

[Lotusflower]

I’m more focused on the Hakstol extension honestly.

 

[1865]

I think Hex will have learned from this simmonds situation. Having him become a potential UFA at 28 is much more appealing than 30.

 

[Alex K]

I think Hex will have learned from this simmonds situation. Having him become a potential UFA at 28 is much more appealing than 30.

On the one hand yes, but on the other forwards and defensemen are the diffetent stories. Locking-up an elite dman till he's 38 is ok, also we don't know what the next CBA will look like, maybe 8-year contracts won't be longer permitted. So I still think we should lock him up for as long as possible ASAP.

 

[Juicy Pop]

Well Provorov was all over the ROR main board threads, so I’ll assume really meant Kalynuk. I agree.

Now you've gone and given me hours worth of reading material.

 

[1865]

On the one hand yes, but on the other forwards and defensemen are the diffetent stories. Locking-up an elite dman till he's 38 is ok, also we don't know what the next CBA will look like, maybe 8-year contracts won't be longer permitted. So I still think we should lock him up for as long as possible ASAP.

I dunno, it may be different with Provy but is there much precedent for defensemen who play 25 minutes a night from 20 years old playing on until 38?

 

[deadhead]

Longevity, as at least a solid top four defenseman:
35 is probably safe for most top defensemen, 36-38 is more iffy, over 38 cross your fingers.

Ray Bourque was playing 26 minutes a night in his last season at 40.
Scott Stevens last full season was at 38, 23 minutes TOI
Lidstrom 41
Chelios started to break down at 39, but still played 24 TOI at 41 over 66 games
Chara's last 24 minute year was at 38, at 40 only 22 minutes a night
Weinrich went from first to second pair minutes at 35, played until 39

Housley last full year at 37
Markov last full year at 37, dinged at 38
Leetch last year was 37, dinged a bit.
Campbell last full year at 36, 18:26 at 37.
Neidermayer last year at 36, played 26 minutes a night
Schneider started getting dinged at 36, still 67g, 21 TOI at 39
Zubov last full year at 36.
Wesley last top 4 year was at 35, 3rd pair through 39
Numminen started slipping at 35, last full season at 38
Coffey wasn't the same after 34, though he played to 38
Hatcher last full year at 34.
Desjardins last full year at 33.
Svoboda last full year at 33

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Longevity, as at least a solid top four defenseman:
35 is probably safe for most top defensemen, 36-38 is more iffy, over 38 cross your fingers.

Ray Bourque was playing 26 minutes a night in his last season at 40.
Scott Stevens last full season was at 38, 23 minutes TOI
Lidstrom 41
Chelios started to break down at 39, but still played 24 TOI at 41 over 66 games
Chara's last 24 minute year was at 38, at 40 only 22 minutes a night
Weinrich went from first to second pair minutes at 35, played until 39

Housley last full year at 37
Markov last full year at 37, dinged at 38
Leetch last year was 37, dinged a bit.
Campbell last full year at 36, 18:26 at 37.
Neidermayer last year at 36, played 26 minutes a night
Schneider started getting dinged at 36, still 67g, 21 TOI at 39
Zubov last full year at 36.
Wesley last top 4 year was at 35, 3rd pair through 39
Numminen started slipping at 35, last full season at 38
Coffey wasn't the same after 34, though he played to 38
Hatcher last full year at 34.
Desjardins last full year at 33.
Svoboda last full year at 33

Thing is, there probably isn't much precedent for this - I imagine the evolution of training and nutrition has progressed to the point (especially with someone as committed to it as Provy is) that we won't know if he will still be cooking at age 38 until he gets there, since the previous and current 30+-year-olds weren't privy to the latest developments when they were his age. He's also smart enough to avoid taking a ton of unnecessary physical damage, to the degree it is possible to avoid anyway.

 

[Jray42]

Well Provorov was all over the ROR main board threads, so I’ll assume really meant Kalynuk. I agree.

This encouraged me to do some digging. My favorite post was that Botterill should be looking for:

Sanheim/Provorov + Couturier for O'Reilly

 

[Curufinwe]

I dunno, it may be different with Provy but is there much precedent for defensemen who play 25 minutes a night from 20 years old playing on until 38?

Suter is still pumping out 25+ minute, 40-50 point seasons. He was also the 7th overall pick.

Ryan Suter Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

I agree with Alex K that the max length of contracts will only come down in future. It's really the only thing the owners have left to fight for after getting their hard cap and 50/50 revenue split.

 

[Mike1167]

Suter is still pumping out 25+ minute, 40-50 point seasons. He was also the 7th overall pick.

Ryan Suter Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

I agree with Alex K that the max length of contracts will only come down in future. It's really the only thing the owners have left to fight for after getting their hard cap and 50/50 revenue split.

Thanks for posting that. Kinda tough to believe that Suter's never had a 10 goal or better season.

 

[Prongo]

Thanks for posting that. Kinda tough to believe that Suter's never had a 10 goal or better season.

Always was his issue. His slapper is not strong whatsoever.

 

[Rebels57]

Always was his issue. His slapper is not strong whatsoever.

Slow release on his wrister too