Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick 7: Ivan Provorov, D, Brandon (WHL)

[Harhis]

I don't see the rush. Provorov's probably not going to be a $10 MM player after next season.

Wait and see if the offense develops

And waiting for a year accomplishes what? If he keeps his play at this level for 8 years 6.5 is fair deal. If he gets any better it's going to be cheap.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Great, let's see if he's anywhere close to 17 goals next season. He'd probably just max out in Ekblad territory if he managed another high goal total

I've seen enough from his minors to the last 2 years in the NHL to safely say he is nowhere near his ceiling yet.

 

[Magua]

Points aren't scored in a vacuum. Provorov won't play PP1 here. And he shouldn't. He put up 41 points playing top 10 ES d-man minutes, playing heavily with the top forwards on the team, all of whom had career years they are likely to not repeat. If you want to project PP2 improving and Ivan adding another 5-7 PP points (which would put him at 10-12 PP points; a good haul for PP2), we're still only talking ~45 points. And while it's easy to assume improvement, we're at the "show me" stage, and it's arguable if he's even the 2nd best PP QB defenseman.

And that's all if Provorov maintains his 11th highest scoring ES point pace (17th in p/60 for >1000 minutes). He's clearly a very good ES scorer who also gets a lot of minutes, but the idea he could regress there, or have bad years, to even any PP increase isn't crazy talk to me. Better offensive d-men than him have had it happen. And he scored 9 non-5v5 ES points; also an incredible amount he might not repeat. I think that's 3rd highest behind Pietrangelo and Doughty. At the least, I don't see how he improves from that. My general point being he scored 41 points. How much more are we predicting? It's very likely 40-45 points is his usage ceiling.

I get he's our robotic dude, but he's not Doughty. He will likely never be Doughty, and that's not a comparable. Why he even gets compared to UFAs makes no sense to me. There is precedent: Slavin (7 years x $5.3 mil); Lindholm (6 years x $5.2 mil); Jones (6 years x $5.4 mil); Hamilton (6 years x $5.75 mil).....you get my point. If the contract is 7-8 years, and you want to set the bar knowing the cap is rising, and go in the low 6s, it's hard to gripe. But he's not almost $3 mil better than all of them. And you don't pay Norris level money, at or near $8 mil, to an RFA off their ELC unless you feel confident he will blow past it within a couple years or better yet, he's already there. It'd be as crazy to me as paying Patrick "Eichel Money" if he hits 60 points this year. I think this is mostly what we get with Ivan, just improving within that in the metrics -- for which he was actually rather reliant on $4.5 mil Gostisbehere. I'd be very curious to see what Werenski gets because he's THE best comparable. And frankly, his scoring upside is probably higher, but if Seth Jones eats away his PP usage, like he did this year, than it gets even more interesting a comparison.

 

[deadhead]

Provorov is not as good as Doughty at the same age, who is? He's probably as good as EK, not as productive offensively, especially PP, but more stout defensively.
However, I do expect Provorov to take another step forward this season integrating his offense with his defense.
8 years, $50M sounds about right.

 

[Beef Invictus]

This has been a decent pick

 

[Alex K]

Provorov won't play PP1 here

We can't be sure about it, his offensive upside is elite.

He will likely never be Doughty

Their first two seasons

	GP	G	A	P	EVP	PPP	PIM	TOI	EVTOI	BkS	Hits
Doughty	163	22	64	86	39	47	110	24:24	17:53	1.2	1.5
Provorov	164	23	48	71	61	10	54	23:03	18:38	2.0	1.6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Obviously Provorov IS a Doughty-type of talent. Furthermore while being arguably as good defensively and playing similar ice time, he had only 54 penalty minutes against Doughty's 110. His defensive awareness and poise are exceptional and like I said his offensive upside is elite.

 

[TCTC]

They're still different types of players, imo.

Doughty is more dynamic. You notice him everytime he's on the ice.
I think Provorov is somewhere between Doughty and Suter. Not as dynamic as Doughty, but better offensively than Suter.
That's the type of player I see when I watch him anyway.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Points aren't scored in a vacuum. Provorov won't play PP1 here. And he shouldn't. He put up 41 points playing top 10 ES d-man minutes, playing heavily with the top forwards on the team, all of whom had career years they are likely to not repeat. If you want to project PP2 improving and Ivan adding another 5-7 PP points (which would put him at 10-12 PP points; a good haul for PP2), we're still only talking ~45 points. And while it's easy to assume improvement, we're at the "show me" stage, and it's arguable if he's even the 2nd best PP QB defenseman.

And that's all if Provorov maintains his 11th highest scoring ES point pace (17th in p/60 for >1000 minutes). He's clearly a very good ES scorer who also gets a lot of minutes, but the idea he could regress there, or have bad years, to even any PP increase isn't crazy talk to me. Better offensive d-men than him have had it happen. And he scored 9 non-5v5 ES points; also an incredible amount he might not repeat. I think that's 3rd highest behind Pietrangelo and Doughty. At the least, I don't see how he improves from that. My general point being he scored 41 points. How much more are we predicting? It's very likely 40-45 points is his usage ceiling.

I get he's our robotic dude, but he's not Doughty. He will likely never be Doughty, and that's not a comparable. Why he even gets compared to UFAs makes no sense to me. There is precedent: Slavin (7 years x $5.3 mil); Lindholm (6 years x $5.2 mil); Jones (6 years x $5.4 mil); Hamilton (6 years x $5.75 mil).....you get my point. If the contract is 7-8 years, and you want to set the bar knowing the cap is rising, and go in the low 6s, it's hard to gripe. But he's not almost $3 mil better than all of them. And you don't pay Norris level money, at or near $8 mil, to an RFA off their ELC unless you feel confident he will blow past it within a couple years or better yet, he's already there. It'd be as crazy to me as paying Patrick "Eichel Money" if he hits 60 points this year. I think this is mostly what we get with Ivan, just improving within that in the metrics -- for which he was actually rather reliant on $4.5 mil Gostisbehere. I'd be very curious to see what Werenski gets because he's THE best comparable. And frankly, his scoring upside is probably higher, but if Seth Jones eats away his PP usage, like he did this year, than it gets even more interesting a comparison.

I now there may be some things you could use in argument for signing him cheap and what not, but tell me one reason why he shouldn't hold out? Especially if he is one Ghost injury away from going from worst to the best PP unit in the league?

 

[FLYguy3911]

I now there may be some things you could use in argument for signing him cheap and what not, but tell me one reason why he shouldn't hold out? Especially if he is one Ghost injury away from going from worst to the best PP unit in the league?

The Flyers have no one to blame but themselves if it actually came to that.

 

[Rebels57]

Great, let's see if he's anywhere close to 17 goals next season. He'd probably just max out in Ekblad territory if he managed another high goal total

This is a stupid idea.

We already know Provorovs worth. It can only go up by waiting a year. It will not go down.

 

[Hiesenberg]

This is a stupid idea.

We already know Provorovs worth. It can only go up by waiting a year. It will not go down.

Provorov will probably score 50 pts next year and the league is already on notice about how good he is, it'll only be a matter of time till he starts getting Norris votes (granted they'll be very low, but that's what happens)

 

[phil162888]

Believe this gets done this week if not tomorrow. Makes no sense to wait unless he wants over 7 which is a lot for a guy only 2 years in. 8 years $50-52 million makes sense

 

[Tripod]

Provorov will probably score 50 pts next year and the league is already on notice about how good he is, it'll only be a matter of time till he starts getting Norris votes (granted they'll be very low, but that's what happens)

How is Provy getting those extra 9 points to get to 50? And I say that honestly.

He was 1st in goals...so not much room there to improve.
He was 8th in ES points. Give him 5 more points and that is top 3 at ES.
Then give him 4 more on the PP?

Honestly, they only way he gets to 50 is for us to fix the #2PP unit or if Ghost got hurt(gulp) and Provy spent a few months on the top unit.

Besides that, him getting to 40 again next year will be another good year.

 

[The Burdened]

I'd re-sign Provorov at almost any cost, but hopefully Hextall pushes for a deal closer to the Seth Jones neighborhood than Aaron Ekblads.

6 x 6 is hopefully the sweet spot.

 

[Rebels57]

How is Provy getting those extra 9 points to get to 50? And I say that honestly.

He was 1st in goals...so not much room there to improve.
He was 8th in ES points. Give him 5 more points and that is top 3 at ES.
Then give him 4 more on the PP?

Honestly, they only way he gets to 50 is for us to fix the #2PP unit or if Ghost got hurt(gulp) and Provy spent a few months on the top unit.

Besides that, him getting to 40 again next year will be another good year.

Yeah id be happy with 40 again from him.

 

[wankstifier]

This is a stupid idea.

We already know Provorovs worth. It can only go up by waiting a year. It will not go down.

He's only played 2 full seasons. So, no, we don't.

I think the severity of Provorov's injury is getting brushed off as well. Couturier suffered a grade 2-3 a couple years ago vs. Washington, but Provorov's shoulder was completely separated.

 

[SnS]

Just do 8x8.

 

[Tripod]

Just do 8x8.

umm...no. That's an overpayment. The whole point of the RFA years is to get them at a cheaper deal. Yours doesn't do that.

 

[phil162888]

Just do 8x8.

If your going to overpay you wait until next off season. Might as well wait to see if he has another great season (injuries could happen may have an off year etc) if you can get a reasonable contract (6 million) then by all means sign him tomorrow and take the risk out of the equation

 

[The Burdened]

Provorov is my guy, but 8x8 means Hextall has failed massively at his job (and it would be shocking seeing that is one of Hextall's best attributes. I'm very critical on Hextall's trading ability, but his ability to re-sign our own players to a fair deal is uncanny)

6x6 is more than fair, and then prepare to pay up if Provorov really hits his ceiling.

 

[Hiesenberg]

How is Provy getting those extra 9 points to get to 50? And I say that honestly.

He was 1st in goals...so not much room there to improve.
He was 8th in ES points. Give him 5 more points and that is top 3 at ES.
Then give him 4 more on the PP?

Honestly, they only way he gets to 50 is for us to fix the #2PP unit or if Ghost got hurt(gulp) and Provy spent a few months on the top unit.

Besides that, him getting to 40 again next year will be another good year.

Ok

 

[Rebels57]

He's only played 2 full seasons. So, no, we don't.

I think the severity of Provorov's injury is getting brushed off as well. Couturier suffered a grade 2-3 a couple years ago vs. Washington, but Provorov's shoulder was completely separated.

View attachment 127479

Wtf are you talking about? Hes already our 1D. Hes already proven. He will only get better. Are you suggesting he might regress despite not even being in his prime yet?

 

[nuclear reactor]

8 years, $50m. Not worth the bridge to get a temporary low cap hit considering the Flyers won’t be cap hungry for about 3-4 years anyway. Provorov at $6.25m for years will be a steal.

 

[gertbfrobe16]

if he signs for 8 years anything less than 7 is a steal i'm guessing 5 years at 6 per

 

[Winston Wolf]

He'd hit 50 points easy next year if he cut 2 inches off of his stick.