Roster Speculation, 2018 offseason Part 4/ Post-free agency edition

[Chainshot]

Malone as the darkhorse to make it out of camp? Sign me up. His development curve ending the season leaves me with that same sense: he's closer for his role than we may realize. A strong camp and he could be part of a revamped 4th line.

Oglevie is also another good choice - very good fundamentals, strong skater, excellent work ethic. If he clicks with someone in camp, he could be right in the mix, even though he's particularly unheralded.

Perhaps Bailey has not broken through in so long that he is now back to the dark horse category - he showing he can recapture late-season consistency/effort in all three zones and is recovered from his shoulder injury could get him into an interesting role. Olofsson has to demonstrate he can mark his man in the d-zone and manage to get to dangerous ice despite his slender frame - I think he can and his release remains eye-popping.

O'Regan might also be a candidate depending on if they decide to give Jack that BU feel line, but he generated offense well down the stretch for the Amerks and could be ready to step up full-time.

On the blueline, Pilut's the easy choice but it would not surprise me if Borgen is in Buffalo sooner rather than later. We know he's defense-first, but the kid is not immobile. He's got the skating to be in and around the play, combined with the mentality to clean people the hell out -- there is a place on this team for solid d-zone mobility and snarl and d-zone matchup that he could fill. It's a stretch - I'm figuring 50-60 games worth of reps in Rochester - but stranger things have happened.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

There's not much opportunity it seems now for the young forward prospects since the STL trade plus Sheary unless Botterill is prepared to park players like Pominville, Larsson, Girgensons in Rochester. Girgensons would get claimed. Somebody will have to blow the doors off in pre-season to make the opening night roster.

Just to be different I'll say Nylander is the guy.

I think CJ Smith if/when he gets an injury call up will impress. Another ERod.

Would Baptiste and Bailey clear waivers?

 

[Jim Bob]

Maybe we see a D-Lo-esque trade of a guy like Larsson or Girgensons on the eve of the season so that someone like Malone, O'Regan, Olofsson, or Thompson stick.

But, as of today, I'm guessing that the question is going to be more about 14F+7D vs 13F+8D and what player gets exposed to waivers (Bailey, Baptiste, Beaulieu, or Hunwick) to get to 23 players.

 

[Zip15]

I wonder if a body is moved out in training camp or early in the season for a pick, to free up a space for Guhle in the starting lineup. The other intriguing thing on the back end is if Housley considers using Dahlin on the right side - bumping Nelson down and creating a spot on the left for Guhle right out of camp.

Guhle's got a tough road to make the team out camp, absent a trade of one of Beaulieu or McCabe. Even with Dahlin on the right side, there's still Scandella, McCabe, Hunwick, and Beaulieu. Not that I'd want any of the latter three playing top-4 minutes - let's be honest, if Phil shortens the bench late in a game, the top-4 is going to be Risto, Scandella, Dahlin, and, for better or worse, Bogo - but I don't think Phil or Botts wants Guhle playing top-4 minutes yet, either.

Assuming Bogo is healthy to start the season (haha!), I think Dahlin starts at LD as he adjusts to the speed of the NHL. But I could see him moving to RD after the inevitable Bogo injury, with Guhle coming up if the McCabe/Bogo/Beaulieu trio is ineffective. I'd be shocked if the D pairs didn't look something like this on opening night:

Scandella-Risto
Dahlin-Bogo
Third pair some combo of McCabe and one of Hunwick, Beaulieu, or Nelson.

 

[SundherDome]

Cornel

 

[Zip15]

Absent some injuries or an unexpected preseason, I think we'll break camp with a pretty conservative roster. Aside from a minor trade, the most "surprising" move could be something like sending Larsson through waivers - they can withstand losing him if they're truly considering Sam at center and are open to moving Mitts there at some point. Girgensons and, eventually, Oglevie or Malone can get some run at 4C if there's an injury.

Sheary-Jack-ERod
Mitts-Sam-Okposo
Sobotka-Berglund-Pominville
Wilson-Girgensons-Baptiste/Bailey
x Bailey/Baptiste

Scandella-Risto
Dahlin-Bogo
Hunwick-McCabe
x Nelson, Beaulieu

Hutton
Ullmark

That's the path of least resistance, which is the way of most NHL teams. I will hate that third line immediately, but I could see them getting slapped together as the "vet line," which also rhymes with "in decline."

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Cornel

The Darkest Horse

 

[sabrebuild]

Which he won't be.

Ya I don’t know what they will do.

I could see them putting him on wing at first rather than jamming Mitts there. Followed by a panicky adjustment if it doesn’t work.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Absent some injuries or an unexpected preseason, I think we'll break camp with a pretty conservative roster. Aside from a minor trade, the most "surprising" move could be something like sending Larsson through waivers - they can withstand losing him if they're truly considering Sam at center and are open to moving Mitts there at some point. Girgensons and, eventually, Oglevie or Malone can get some run at 4C if there's an injury.

Sheary-Jack-ERod
Mitts-Sam-Okposo
Sobotka-Berglund-Pominville
Wilson-Girgensons-Baptiste/Bailey
x Bailey/Baptiste

Scandella-Risto
Dahlin-Bogo
Hunwick-McCabe
x Nelson, Beaulieu

Hutton
Ullmark

That's the path of least resistance, which is the way of most NHL teams. I will hate that third line immediately, but I could see them getting slapped together as the "vet line," which also rhymes with "in decline."

If they continue to punt on the margins I wonder who the next player to get blamed for the losing culture is.

Guhle has been one of this team’s six best defensemen for like three straight seasons.

 

[Aladyyn]

If they continue to punt on the margins I wonder who the next player to get blamed for the losing culture is.

I think it's pretty obvious.

 

[ottawah]

Would Baptiste and Bailey clear waivers?

I'd go zero chance on Bailey, 5% on Baptiste.

But you never know, some other team may have scouted them at just the right game and have them on their list. For example, Baptiste had 2 goals against Chicago, who have an absolute lack of right handed wingers, and may be interested, althoguh one woudl assume they would have plugged that hole by the time waivers are around.

 

[brian_griffin]

I'd go zero chance on Bailey, 5% on Baptiste.

But you never know, some other team may have scouted them at just the right game and have them on their list. For example, Baptiste had 2 goals against Chicago, who have an absolute lack of right handed wingers, and may be interested, althoguh one woudl assume they would have plugged that hole by the time waivers are around.

To clarify, don't you mean the opposite of what you replied? 0% & 5% they're claimed, and 100% / 95% likelihood they clear, correct?

 

[AustonsNostrils]

I actually think Bailey gets claimed - 23 years old, 3 20 goal seasons in the AHL, 6'4" 215 lbs.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

I absolutely loathe the thought of Pominville on this team this season. I'm close to it with Larsson too but the guy could be a solid 4C with consistent good 4th liners on his wing.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

Sheary-Jack-ERod
Mitts-Sam-Okposo

Sheary - Eichel - Reinhart
Rodrigues - Mittelstadt - Okposo

Botterill and Housley aren't going to do the Reinhart at center thing again.

can't believe there's no ROR and all we'll have to show for it on the ice this year is Berglund and Sobotka.

 

[Aladyyn]

Sheary - Eichel - Reinhart
Rodrigues - Mittelstadt - Okposo

Botterill and Housley aren't going to do the Reinhart at center thing again.

And I ask again. Why not?

 

[Chainshot]

Larsson's WC should show what solid usage and having plus skating wingers does for him in a pure defensive role. His wrist/arm injury is now nearly 18 months in the past but it seemed like he was playing like a one-armed man out there enough, especially early in the season.

I would expect only very specific teams to sniff on Bailey or Baptiste. Remember, it's not just that a team claims them, they have to stay on the NHL roster of the claiming team - are either of them clearly the 12th or 13th forward on almost any NHL roster out there? Teams typically have a tweener or two of their own that they're trying to fit into a role who have to then pass through waivers. I doubt either get much of a sniff if they don't make the team in camp, though there is one team that I could see kicking the tires on either due to their generic lack of wing speed: Edmonton.

 

[Jim Bob]

And I ask again. Why not?

Because Housley.

 

[sabrebuild]

Because Housley.

I mean Housley let him play center, albeit with turd wingers.

 

[sabrebuild]

Oh I don't know, how about the epic failure that the Reino at Center experiment was all of last season, combined with the fact that he's easily our best right winger? I'm just speculating that we're going to want to score some goals this year, and with Mitts on the 2nd line there's literally no reason to keep trying to force Sam into that slot.

Epic failure?

Keep forcing Sam into center?

Did I miss something?

 

[sabrebuild]

Malone as the darkhorse to make it out of camp? Sign me up. His development curve ending the season leaves me with that same sense: he's closer for his role than we may realize. A strong camp and he could be part of a revamped 4th line.

Oglevie is also another good choice - very good fundamentals, strong skater, excellent work ethic. If he clicks with someone in camp, he could be right in the mix, even though he's particularly unheralded.

Perhaps Bailey has not broken through in so long that he is now back to the dark horse category - he showing he can recapture late-season consistency/effort in all three zones and is recovered from his shoulder injury could get him into an interesting role. Olofsson has to demonstrate he can mark his man in the d-zone and manage to get to dangerous ice despite his slender frame - I think he can and his release remains eye-popping.

O'Regan might also be a candidate depending on if they decide to give Jack that BU feel line, but he generated offense well down the stretch for the Amerks and could be ready to step up full-time.

On the blueline, Pilut's the easy choice but it would not surprise me if Borgen is in Buffalo sooner rather than later. We know he's defense-first, but the kid is not immobile. He's got the skating to be in and around the play, combined with the mentality to clean people the hell out -- there is a place on this team for solid d-zone mobility and snarl and d-zone matchup that he could fill. It's a stretch - I'm figuring 50-60 games worth of reps in Rochester - but stranger things have happened.

I haven’t seen Malone at all in two years. But the amount of ppl who are pumping his tires for stealing Larson’s job, makes me excited for that camp battle.

 

[Chainshot]

I haven’t seen Malone at all in two years. But the amount of ppl who are pumping his tires for stealing Larson’s job, makes me excited for that camp battle.

His potential graduation to the bigs is also why I question the inability to get something done with Blackwell -- there is alway room for guys who will do whatever it takes to win puck battles. I don't understand the idea that having one guy makes the other expendable. Similarly, Larry seems to have the d-zone confidence of Housley, so I don't see him being victim to losing a spot to younger, hungrier legs just yet. But Gus? He needs to find that motivation again or he could/should be moving along.

I watched almost all of the WC's and Larry got some hard d-zone work with quick checking wingers... and it proved useful, even successful. If he can play on a bigger surface against solid competition, I do want to see what he could do in a more Pahlsson role -- 4th line PK and checking specialist, with some punk added into the mix.

 

[sabrebuild]

His potential graduation to the bigs is also why I question the inability to get something done with Blackwell -- there is alway room for guys who will do whatever it takes to win puck battles. I don't understand the idea that having one guy makes the other expendable. Similarly, Larry seems to have the d-zone confidence of Housley, so I don't see him being victim to losing a spot to younger, hungrier legs just yet. But Gus? He needs to find that motivation again or he could/should be moving along.

I watched almost all of the WC's and Larry got some hard d-zone work with quick checking wingers... and it proved useful, even successful. If he can play on a bigger surface against solid competition, I do want to see what he could do in a more Pahlsson role -- 4th line PK and checking specialist, with some punk added into the mix.

Ya, I’m always for building strength. So sign me up for a 4th line that features Malone and Larson.

Larson just can’t be out there with trash. He needs speedy wingers who can get in the muck.

Malone Larson Baptiste as a 4th line. Yes please.

 

[cybresabre]

I think it's pretty obvious.

Well at least he'll get the requisite long term contract first.

 

[Reddawg]

Epic failure?

Keep forcing Sam into center?

Did I miss something?

There was a post above asking how I would know Reinhart wouldn't be slotted at center again.