Roster Speculation, 2018 offseason Part 4/ Post-free agency edition

[Fezzy126]

Yes, that would change my opinion actually. Not being snarky. I would find that persuasive.

As everyone knows, the Sabres were consistently bad throughout the entire year, but they were a burning tire fire until about mid December. McCabe's play was no different.

McCabe before 12/10/2017 (30 games):
CF% - 45.92
GF% - 37.14

McCabe after to 12/10/2017 (23 games):
CF% - 50.95
GF% - 50

Despite the rocky start, he still did what he does best - defend zone entries and defend the 'house', better than any other player on the Sabres. For anyone that doesn't understand what I mean by the house, it's also what's referred to as the high danger scoring area, and extends from the net to each faceoff dot (courtesy of Seven Rules for Defensemen Playing Defensive Ice Hockey - Tips and Drill):

According to hockeyviz.com, McCabe's heat maps show that he was above average in unblocked shot suppression, both relative to his teammates as well as the rest of the league:

As you can see, his left defense spot comparatively gives up fewer shots.

Lastly, thanks to the data gathered and compiled by Sean Tierney & Corey Sznajder at Tableau Public, this chart tells us that only McCabe and Falk were above adequate at defending the blue line, however, McCabe was in line with everyone else at zone exits.

Lastly, while it is a limited sample size, the player comparison tool emphasizes some of the previous data (it should since it was gathered by the same people, but hey, just another way at looking at things)

Based on all of this, we can see that while zone entry and offensive contributions may never be his thing, McCabe is definitely above average when it comes to defending zone entries and successful zone exits. Put him on the 3rd pair with a young offensive defenseman and I think he can be the anchor so they can flourish.

As for @Kyndig86, I haven't forgotten about you. According to natural stat trick I can see a game log of all of McCabe's giveaways, and on NHL.com the full play-by-play reports tell me exactly when his giveaways occurred. I'll watch and document every single one of his giveaways with a mission to debunk your theory, because I can't remember Jake being responsible for as many egregious turnovers as you are referring to. Should be fun re-watching the worst hockey I've ever seen.

Click to read more...

 

[Tatanka]

Into the valley road the three hundred...kudos.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

We can agree to disagree, but I don't think McCabe has ever actually been good. He has shown promise. And there have been flashes of what he could be. But he's never put together consistent, good play. He's a poor man's Dmitri Kalinin.

He's 24, young for a dman. He's got toughness we have very little of on the Sabres, he has some offensive instincts that hopefully will come out more, has a very hard shot. He should be a solid third pair guy when we're a playoff team. Our depth on defense is improving, possible a Borgen/Hickey/Fitzgerald jumps ahead of him.

 

[jBuds]

As everyone knows, the Sabres were consistently bad throughout the entire year, but they were a burning tire fire until about mid December. McCabe's play was no different.

McCabe before 12/10/2017 (30 games):
CF% - 45.92
GF% - 37.14

McCabe after to 12/10/2017 (23 games):
CF% - 50.95
GF% - 50

Despite the rocky start, he still did what he does best - defend zone entries and defend the 'house', better than any other player on the Sabres. For anyone that doesn't understand what I mean by the house, it's also what's referred to as the high danger scoring area, and extends from the net to each faceoff dot (courtesy of Seven Rules for Defensemen Playing Defensive Ice Hockey - Tips and Drill):

According to hockeyviz.com, McCabe's heat maps show that he was above average in unblocked shot suppression, both relative to his teammates as well as the rest of the league:

View attachment 131099

View attachment 131101

As you can see, his left defense spot comparatively gives up fewer shots.

Lastly, thanks to the data gathered and compiled by Sean Tierney & Corey Sznajder at Tableau Public, this chart tells us that only McCabe and Falk were above adequate at defending the blue line, however, McCabe was in line with everyone else at zone exits.

View attachment 131105

Lastly, while it is a limited sample size, the player comparison tool emphasizes some of the previous data (it should since it was gathered by the same people, but hey, just another way at looking at things)
View attachment 131107

Based on all of this, we can see that while zone entry and offensive contributions may never be his thing, McCabe is definitely above average when it comes to defending zone entries and successful zone exits. Put him on the 3rd pair with a young offensive defenseman and I think he can be the anchor so they can flourish.

As for @Kyndig86, I haven't forgotten about you. According to natural stat trick I can see a game log of all of McCabe's giveaways, and on NHL.com the full play-by-play reports tell me exactly when his giveaways occurred. I'll watch and document every single one of his giveaways with a mission to debunk your theory, because I can't remember Jake being responsible for as many egregious turnovers as you are referring to. Should be fun re-watching the worst hockey I've ever seen.

Well done

 

[AustonsNostrils]

Lastly, while it is a limited sample size, the player comparison tool emphasizes some of the previous data (it should since it was gathered by the same people, but hey, just another way at looking at things)
View attachment 131107

Based on all of this, we can see that while zone entry and offensive contributions may never be his thing, McCabe is definitely above average when it comes to defending zone entries and successful zone exits. Put him on the 3rd pair with a young offensive defenseman and I think he can be the anchor so they can flourish.

Where can I find definitions of these advanced stats, especially the Shot ones? Shots60 are shots taken by a player's team while he is on the ice? McCabe's ShotAssists60 is 43 yet his Shots60 is just 13. If Shots60 are a player's own shots on goal how could Scandella have such a high number, his is 60, Scandella plays at least 20 minutes a night - lol there's no way he takes 20 shots a game.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

I for one find the McCabe hate puzzling. Are we giving up on him after one medicore year? Last time I checked he was literally one of the very few dmen we have in the organization who can actually play second pairing minutes. He's only turning 25 this fall. He makes virtually nothing.

I am not giving up on McCabe so easily. I think he's the perfect #4/5 dman who can slide on the 2nd and 3rd pairings. And if Dahlin is played at his preferred size (the right side) then McCabe will have the LD2 spot to himself behind Scandella playing with a Rasmus.

 

[Aladyyn]

Where can I find definitions of these advanced stats, especially the Shot ones? Shots60 are shots taken by a player's team while he is on the ice? McCabe's ShotAssists60 is 43 yet his Shots60 is just 13. If Shots60 are a player's own shots on goal how could Scandella have such a high number, his is 60, Scandella plays at least 20 minutes a night - lol there's no way he takes 20 shots a game.

It's percentiles. Scandella shoots more than 60% of the league's defensemen.

 

[sabrebuild]

I for one find the McCabe hate puzzling. Are we giving up on him after one medicore year? Last time I checked he was literally one of the very few dmen we have in the organization who can actually play second pairing minutes. He's only turning 25 this fall. He makes virtually nothing.

I am not giving up on McCabe so easily. I think he's the perfect #4/5 dman who can slide on the 2nd and 3rd pairings. And if Dahlin is played at his preferred size (the right side) then McCabe will have the LD2 spot to himself behind Scandella playing with a Rasmus.

What have you seen to date, that makes you say McCabe can play 2nd pair minutes effectively?

Or did you literally mean he play the overall time, regardless of whether it goes well or not.

 

[Aladyyn]

Being a #4/#5 guy on the left side doesn't guarantee anything anymore. We have like 5 of these guys.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

It's percentiles. Scandella shoots more than 60% of the league's defensemen.

ahhhhh thanks. is there a website with a full list of advanced stats metrics and their definitions?

 

[Fezzy126]

ahhhhh thanks. is there a website with a full list of advanced stats metrics and their definitions?

An advanced stat primer: Understanding basic hockey metrics

 

[truthbluth]

I'd really like the Sabres to sign Nick Shore and/or Tomas Jurco. both young guys, with offensive upside, who've spent most of their careers thus far saddled with 4th line plugs, d zone starts, decent shot metrics, and low PDO. Both should be cheap, and either could be bottom six guys capable of playing up a line.

 

[TehDoak]

I'd really like the Sabres to sign Nick Shore and/or Tomas Jurco. both young guys, with offensive upside, who've spent most of their careers thus far saddled with 4th line plugs, d zone starts, decent shot metrics, and low PDO. Both should be cheap, and either could be bottom six guys capable of playing up a line.

We'd have to purge out some of our excess 4th line forwards at this point.

By count:

Larsson, Sobotka, Girgensons, Pominville, Wilson. That's....quite a few.

 

[truthbluth]

We'd have to purge out some of our excess 4th line forwards at this point.

By count:

Larsson, Sobotka, Girgensons, Pominville, Wilson. That's....quite a few.

Nick Shore in for Larsson (trade for whatever)
Jurco in for Pominville (press box)

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

What have you seen to date, that makes you say McCabe can play 2nd pair minutes effectively?

Or did you literally mean he play the overall time, regardless of whether it goes well or not.

Past play and pedigree/potential, not just the most recent season of play. Dmen take longest to develop and hes 24 years old. For the most part of McCabes time in the nhl there has been more bad then good.

As for having "several" #4/5 lhd that's patently false. There is one lhd better and that is Scandella. McCabe is clearly the second best at the moment. He is far far ahead of the #6/7 D fodder we have. McCabe still has the chance to be a solid good top 4 guy. I am not giving up on him early. We did it with McNabb and Pysyk, enough with moving away from good young dmen.

And since we like to mainly just go off of the most recent season to gauge worth/value/talent, that means Brayden McNabb is a bonafide top pairing dman then right ? He literally checks every box, offensively, defensively, analytics ice time etc McNabb last year played like a high end #2 dman. Imagining him on our blue line would be nice. We need a big strong dman with snarl. Risto does it enough but that isnt his game. Bogo misses half the year so he doesn't count. Hopefully that is where McCabe can return to that play where he had that jam. Where he could totally destroy and lay out Laine with a solid clean hit. That is the McCabe I wanna see return and I'm giving him this season to do it.

We can move on from McCabe next summer if need be. Not trading yet another good young dman far too early.

 

[Vito_81]

Nick Shore in for Larsson (trade for whatever)
Jurco in for Pominville (press box)

It pains me to say it, but Pominville will be a regular until at least New Years.

 

[Fezzy126]

Nick Shore in for Larsson (trade for whatever)
Jurco in for Pominville (press box)

We're going to be at 49 contracts once Reinhart signs, at least until UPL is officially assigned to juniors that is. I don't think they would want to enter the season with 49/50 contract slots used up, I'm extremely interested to see if and how they move some of these guys.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

I want to get rid of all the fringe holdovers - Pominville, Larsson anyway. Maybe Girgensons. First time this season Bogosian misses more than 3 games in a row I'd tell him that's enough, enjoy your salary but you're no longer part of this organization actively.

 

[joshjull]

It's possible that Middlestadt could break the NHL rookie scoring record, Eichel breaks Gretzky's single season goals, assists, and points records, Hutton breaks Hasek's club mark for Save%, and it's possible that the Sabres win the Stanley Cup this season.

I'm just not counting on any of those things happening.

You’re so negative man

 

[joshjull]

As everyone knows, the Sabres were consistently bad throughout the entire year, but they were a burning tire fire until about mid December. McCabe's play was no different.

McCabe before 12/10/2017 (30 games):
CF% - 45.92
GF% - 37.14

McCabe after to 12/10/2017 (23 games):
CF% - 50.95
GF% - 50

Despite the rocky start, he still did what he does best - defend zone entries and defend the 'house', better than any other player on the Sabres. For anyone that doesn't understand what I mean by the house, it's also what's referred to as the high danger scoring area, and extends from the net to each faceoff dot (courtesy of Seven Rules for Defensemen Playing Defensive Ice Hockey - Tips and Drill):

According to hockeyviz.com, McCabe's heat maps show that he was above average in unblocked shot suppression, both relative to his teammates as well as the rest of the league:

View attachment 131099

View attachment 131101

As you can see, his left defense spot comparatively gives up fewer shots.

Lastly, thanks to the data gathered and compiled by Sean Tierney & Corey Sznajder at Tableau Public, this chart tells us that only McCabe and Falk were above adequate at defending the blue line, however, McCabe was in line with everyone else at zone exits.

View attachment 131105

Lastly, while it is a limited sample size, the player comparison tool emphasizes some of the previous data (it should since it was gathered by the same people, but hey, just another way at looking at things)
View attachment 131107

Based on all of this, we can see that while zone entry and offensive contributions may never be his thing, McCabe is definitely above average when it comes to defending zone entries and successful zone exits. Put him on the 3rd pair with a young offensive defenseman and I think he can be the anchor so they can flourish.

As for @Kyndig86, I haven't forgotten about you. According to natural stat trick I can see a game log of all of McCabe's giveaways, and on NHL.com the full play-by-play reports tell me exactly when his giveaways occurred. I'll watch and document every single one of his giveaways with a mission to debunk your theory, because I can't remember Jake being responsible for as many egregious turnovers as you are referring to. Should be fun re-watching the worst hockey I've ever seen.

Well done. Though I do worry for your future mental health with the task you’ve given yourself in the last paragraph.

 

[valet]

I want to get rid of all the fringe holdovers - Pominville, Larsson anyway. Maybe Girgensons. First time this season Bogosian misses more than 3 games in a row I'd tell him that's enough, enjoy your salary but you're no longer part of this organization actively.

3 games? dont you think thats a bit extreme?

 

[valet]

It pains me to say it, but Pominville will be a regular until at least New Years.

I wonder if he retires after this season. it would be a good story. Pommer has always been a class act and it would be good to see him go out as at least a semi-active sabre

 

[valet]

What have you seen to date, that makes you say McCabe can play 2nd pair minutes effectively?

Or did you literally mean he play the overall time, regardless of whether it goes well or not.

I think he'd be alright on the 2nd pair w Risto tbh... but that's putting a lot of pressure on Scandella/Dahlin to be 1st pair guys right out of the gate... Ideally he'd be best on the 3rd pair

 

[Kyndig]

Past play and pedigree/potential, not just the most recent season of play. Dmen take longest to develop and hes 24 years old. For the most part of McCabes time in the nhl there has been more bad then good.

As for having "several" #4/5 lhd that's patently false. There is one lhd better and that is Scandella. McCabe is clearly the second best at the moment. He is far far ahead of the #6/7 D fodder we have. McCabe still has the chance to be a solid good top 4 guy. I am not giving up on him early. We did it with McNabb and Pysyk, enough with moving away from good young dmen.

And since we like to mainly just go off of the most recent season to gauge worth/value/talent, that means Brayden McNabb is a bonafide top pairing dman then right ? He literally checks every box, offensively, defensively, analytics ice time etc McNabb last year played like a high end #2 dman. Imagining him on our blue line would be nice. We need a big strong dman with snarl. Risto does it enough but that isnt his game. Bogo misses half the year so he doesn't count. Hopefully that is where McCabe can return to that play where he had that jam. Where he could totally destroy and lay out Laine with a solid clean hit. That is the McCabe I wanna see return and I'm giving him this season to do it.

We can move on from McCabe next summer if need be. Not trading yet another good young dman far too early.

Guhle>McCabe. One will be 21 at the start of next season and the other 25, so its more likely Guhle takes a bigger step than McCabe does. Guhle had a much better corsi compared to McCabe despite having nearly identical OZS and he crushes McCabe in almost every /60 measurement.

So best case scenario for McCabe is hes playing as a 5/6 without even taking into account which side Dahlin will play or if Pilut is better than him as well which could be very likely.

 

[joshjull]

His linemates are going to be worse.

Mitts can drive play with the puck on his stick in a way that Sam really can't. Sam is at his best facilitating other talented players. He has a well rounded game that allows him to do that on an offensively or defensively focused line. But driving possession with the puck on his stick and making things happen offensively because it is is not really in his wheel house. Whereas it is in Mitts' wheelhouse and a reason his linemates will matter a less to his success. Add in Mitts being stronger on the puck and faster and I think he will have a better chance at success centering the secondary scoring line. If thats how he is used obviously