Roster Speculation, 2018 offseason Part 4/ Post-free agency edition

[Husko]

As everyone knows, the Sabres were consistently bad throughout the entire year, but they were a burning tire fire until about mid December. McCabe's play was no different.

McCabe before 12/10/2017 (30 games):
CF% - 45.92
GF% - 37.14

McCabe after to 12/10/2017 (23 games):
CF% - 50.95
GF% - 50

Despite the rocky start, he still did what he does best - defend zone entries and defend the 'house', better than any other player on the Sabres. For anyone that doesn't understand what I mean by the house, it's also what's referred to as the high danger scoring area, and extends from the net to each faceoff dot (courtesy of Seven Rules for Defensemen Playing Defensive Ice Hockey - Tips and Drill):

According to hockeyviz.com, McCabe's heat maps show that he was above average in unblocked shot suppression, both relative to his teammates as well as the rest of the league:

View attachment 131099

View attachment 131101

As you can see, his left defense spot comparatively gives up fewer shots.

Lastly, thanks to the data gathered and compiled by Sean Tierney & Corey Sznajder at Tableau Public, this chart tells us that only McCabe and Falk were above adequate at defending the blue line, however, McCabe was in line with everyone else at zone exits.

View attachment 131105

Lastly, while it is a limited sample size, the player comparison tool emphasizes some of the previous data (it should since it was gathered by the same people, but hey, just another way at looking at things)
View attachment 131107

Based on all of this, we can see that while zone entry and offensive contributions may never be his thing, McCabe is definitely above average when it comes to defending zone entries and successful zone exits. Put him on the 3rd pair with a young offensive defenseman and I think he can be the anchor so they can flourish.

As for @Kyndig86, I haven't forgotten about you. According to natural stat trick I can see a game log of all of McCabe's giveaways, and on NHL.com the full play-by-play reports tell me exactly when his giveaways occurred. I'll watch and document every single one of his giveaways with a mission to debunk your theory, because I can't remember Jake being responsible for as many egregious turnovers as you are referring to. Should be fun re-watching the worst hockey I've ever seen.

Solid write up. Definitely points to an area of promise in his game that hopefully can be cultivated.

 

[joshjull]

Guhle>McCabe. One will be 21 at the start of next season and the other 25, so its more likely Guhle takes a bigger step than McCabe does. Guhle had a much better corsi compared to McCabe despite having nearly identical OZS and he crushes McCabe in almost every /60 measurement.

So best case scenario for McCabe is hes playing as a 5/6 without even taking into account which side Dahlin will play or if Pilut is better than him as well which could be very likely.

Really?

Ranks among our 13 dmen

CA/60 --------> McCabe 5th, Guhle 6th
SA/60 --------> McCabe 4th, Guhle 13th
SCA/60 ------> McCabe 7th, Guhle 6th
HDCA/60 ---> McCabe 7th, Guhle 8th
GA/60 -------> McCabe 6th, Guhle 12th
HDGA/60 ---> McCabe 7th, Guhle 11th

Guhle was much better at shot generation and was better creating scoring chances but he did not come close to crushing McCabe in almost every /60 measurement.

 

[Aladyyn]

Mitts can drive play with the puck on his stick in a way that Sam really can't. Sam is at his best facilitating other talented players. He has a well rounded game that allows him to do that on an offensively or defensively focused line. But driving possession with the puck on his stick and making things happen offensively because it is is not really in his wheel house. Wheres it is Mitts' wheelhouse and a reason his linemates will matter a less to his success. Add in Mitts being stronger on the puck and faster and I think he will have a better chance at success centering the secondary scoring line. If thats how he is used obviously

Why did we even tank for Eichel anyways.

 

[joshjull]

Why did we even tank for Eichel anyways.

Huh?

 

[joshjull]

@Aladyyn

Wait, are you arguing my representation of Mitts skills as being similar to Jack's skills means it was pointless to tank for Jack? Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong but if I'm not...... what a bizarre take. It also doesn't have much relevance to the discussion.

Like I said, if I'm wrong feel free to correct me.

 

[Aladyyn]

@Aladyyn

Wait, are you arguing my representation of Mitts skills as being similar to Jack's skills means it was pointless to tank for Jack? Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong but if I'm not...... what a bizarre take. It also doesn't have much relevance to the discussion.

Like I said, if I'm wrong feel free to correct me.

I'm just saying Mitts is not the second coming.

 

[Kyndig]

Really?

Ranks among our 13 dmen

CA/60 --------> McCabe 5th, Guhle 6th
SA/60 --------> McCabe 4th, Guhle 13th
SCA/60 ------> McCabe 7th, Guhle 6th
HDCA/60 ---> McCabe 7th, Guhle 8th
GA/60 -------> McCabe 6th, Guhle 12th
HDGA/60 ---> McCabe 7th, Guhle 11th

Guhle was much better at shot generation and was better creating scoring chances but he did not come close to crushing McCabe in almost every /60 measurement.

Bolded proves Lehner and Ochostinko mailed it in at the end of the season when Guhle started playing.

G/60 McCabe 0.1 | Guhle 0.0
A/60 Guhle 1.0 | McCabe 0.6 nearly doubled his assists per 60
A1/60 Guhle 0.6| McCabe 0.3 doubled his primary assists per 60
A2/60 Guhle 0.4|McCabe 0.3
P/60 Guhle 1.0|McCabe 0.8
S/60 Guhle 6.8|McCabe 3.1 more than doubled his shots per 60
oiGF/60 Guhle 2.7|McCabe 2.0 almost an extra goal per 60
oiGA/60 McCabe 2.6|Guhle 3.5 (goal tending save % was .897 for Guhle to McCabes .915) as stated above
CF/60 Guhle 57.7 | McCabe 50.7 Seven percent more CF is huge
CA/60 McCabe 54.2| Guhle 54.9 corsi against nearly the same
C/60 Guhle +2.9|McCabe -3.5

 

[joshjull]

Bolded proves Lehner and Ochostinko mailed it in at the end of the season when Guhle started playing.

G/60 McCabe 0.1 | Guhle 0.0
A/60 Guhle 1.0 | McCabe 0.6 nearly doubled his assists per 60
A1/60 Guhle 0.6| McCabe 0.3 doubled his primary assists per 60
A2/60 Guhle 0.4|McCabe 0.3
P/60 Guhle 1.0|McCabe 0.8
S/60 Guhle 6.8|McCabe 3.1 more than doubled his shots per 60
oiGF/60 Guhle 2.7|McCabe 2.0 almost an extra goal per 60
oiGA/60 McCabe 2.6|Guhle 3.5 (goal tending save % was .897 for Guhle to McCabes .915) as stated above
CF/60 Guhle 57.7 | McCabe 50.7 Seven percent more CF is huge
CA/60 McCabe 54.2| Guhle 54.9 corsi against nearly the same
C/60 Guhle +2.9|McCabe -3.5

The bolded, along with the rest, proves that your assertion was incorrect. The why wasn't what was being discussed. You sure didn't care about an contextual why when it comes to McCabe's numbers. You just made assertions.

I also think Guhle is the one with better potential but twisting this argument really doesn't help your cause.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Really?

Ranks among our 13 dmen

CA/60 --------> McCabe 5th, Guhle 6th
SA/60 --------> McCabe 4th, Guhle 13th
SCA/60 ------> McCabe 7th, Guhle 6th
HDCA/60 ---> McCabe 7th, Guhle 8th
GA/60 -------> McCabe 6th, Guhle 12th
HDGA/60 ---> McCabe 7th, Guhle 11th

Guhle was much better at shot generation and was better creating scoring chances but he did not come close to crushing McCabe in almost every /60 measurement.

Guhle struggled more on the defensive side of things more than I thought he would this season. For both teams. Pilut might even be further along as far as being a well-rounded player, and could end up on the Sabres before Guhle. Granted, I haven't seen nearly as much of Pilut.

 

[GameMisconduct]

Mitts can drive play with the puck on his stick in a way that Sam really can't. Sam is at his best facilitating other talented players. He has a well rounded game that allows him to do that on an offensively or defensively focused line. But driving possession with the puck on his stick and making things happen offensively because it is is not really in his wheel house. Whereas it is in Mitts' wheelhouse and a reason his linemates will matter a less to his success. Add in Mitts being stronger on the puck and faster and I think he will have a better chance at success centering the secondary scoring line. If thats how he is used obviously

I understand the point you're making about them being different players with different strengths etc and am on the same page , but the bolded strikes me as an overstatement regarding Sam. For instance, Reinhart did that on plenty of occasions in the second half of the season. But agreed again that they do it in different ways and that Casey is more of an overtly attacking player.

 

[joshjull]

I'm just saying Mitts is not the second coming.

I should have known. Its Sam centric complaining because I dared to suggest Mitts has a skill set that includes things he's better at than Sam. Because obviously the only way to think that could be true is to view Mitts as the second coming.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Guhle>McCabe. One will be 21 at the start of next season and the other 25, so its more likely Guhle takes a bigger step than McCabe does. Guhle had a much better corsi compared to McCabe despite having nearly identical OZS and he crushes McCabe in almost every /60 measurement.

So best case scenario for McCabe is hes playing as a 5/6 without even taking into account which side Dahlin will play or if Pilut is better than him as well which could be very likely.

I think most of us advocating to give McCabe another chance is not looking for him to fill in in the top 4 so he's not really in Guhles way. We shouldn't be looking to trade any D until they play themselves off the roster by being replaced by better players. Until then he can still make a serviceable bottom 4 D as Fezzy laid out hes not as bad as you want to paint him.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

Beaulieu can't be on this team, Nelson outplayed him. Nelson's done enough time in Rochester, Beaulieu goes to Rochester before Nelson.

 

[Kyndig]

The bolded, along with the rest, proves that your assertion was incorrect. The why wasn't what was being discussed. You sure didn't care about an contextual why when it comes to McCabe's numbers. You just made assertions.

I also think Guhle is the one with better potential but twisting this argument really doesn't help your cause.

7th in HDCA vs 8th shouldn't translate to one player being dead last and the other in the middle of the pack unless goaltending shit the bed. Also Guhle spent a decent amount of time playing with Risto (1/4th of total playtime) facing the toughest competition.

 

[joshjull]

I understand the point you're making about them being different players with different strengths etc and am on the same page , but the bolded strikes me as an overstatement regarding Sam. For instance, Reinhart did that on plenty of occasions in the second half of the season. But agreed again that they do it in different ways and that Casey is more of an overtly attacking player.

Not really but I should flesh it out more. Mitts can use his skating ability, strength on his skates and speed to keep possession of the puck on his stick in all three zones. He is excellent at maintaining speed with the puck as well as protecting the puck when challenged. Matt Ellis talked about his ability to protect the puck when he was talking about the young talent in the organization during prospects camp. He talked about how good Mitts is at using his shoulders/hips to shield the puck from the opposing player and his strong base make him hard to move off the puck.


If Mitts skill set translates to the NHL. Then he will be the type of player who can drive possession, transition and offense while carrying the puck. Thats not really what Sam's game is about even if he does some of those things on occasion.

 

[Montag DP]

Guhle>McCabe. One will be 21 at the start of next season and the other 25, so its more likely Guhle takes a bigger step than McCabe does. Guhle had a much better corsi compared to McCabe despite having nearly identical OZS and he crushes McCabe in almost every /60 measurement.

So best case scenario for McCabe is hes playing as a 5/6 without even taking into account which side Dahlin will play or if Pilut is better than him as well which could be very likely.

Really?

Ranks among our 13 dmen

CA/60 --------> McCabe 5th, Guhle 6th
SA/60 --------> McCabe 4th, Guhle 13th
SCA/60 ------> McCabe 7th, Guhle 6th
HDCA/60 ---> McCabe 7th, Guhle 8th
GA/60 -------> McCabe 6th, Guhle 12th
HDGA/60 ---> McCabe 7th, Guhle 11th

Guhle was much better at shot generation and was better creating scoring chances but he did not come close to crushing McCabe in almost every /60 measurement.

I really don't think Guhle's 21 NHL games represent a valid sample size for these types of comparisons. Especially comparing with McCabe's 215 games.

 

[Montag DP]

I should have known. Its Sam centric complaining because I dared to suggest Mitts has a skill set that includes things he's better at than Sam. Because obviously the only way to think that could be true is to view Mitts as the second coming.

Hey, at least he seems to be admitting that Jack is better at some things than Sam. That's pretty significant for him.

 

[joshjull]

7th in HDCA vs 8th shouldn't translate to one player being dead last and the other in the middle of the pack unless goaltending **** the bed. Also Guhle spent a decent amount of time playing with Risto (1/4th of total playtime) facing the toughest competition.

Couple things

1) You're still missing the point about my initial post. You made an assertion that Guhle crushed McCabe in almost every /60 category. That simply wasn't true and I showed why that was the case. All your posting since that hasn't refuted it but has gone off on other tangents

2) To the bolded. Another answer is the player with more goals against is worse in his own end. Hard to argue the goalies were better for McCabe but worse for Guhle. Particularly since Johnson's little blip of good play for the year happened when Guhle was in the lineup.


3) Guhle's time with Risto was with a 56.6% OZS%. No they were not matched up against the toughest competition. The tough minutes were handled by Scandella/Nelson and their 44% OZS%.

 

[Aladyyn]

You can't use goal metrics for a player who appeared in 18 games...

 

[joshjull]

I really don't think Guhle's 21 NHL games represent a valid sample size for these types of comparisons. Especially comparing with McCabe's 215 games.

I wasn't making a comparison of the players. I was pointing out the fact that he didn't crush McCabe in almost every /60 category.

 

[joshjull]

You can't use goal metrics for a player who appeared in 18 games...

Are you talking to anyone in particular or are you making a point in general that we are supposed to divine?

 

[enthusiast]

mccabe's isbad/60 is way higher than guhle's

 

[CrazyPsycho]

What have you seen to date, that makes you say McCabe can play 2nd pair minutes effectively?

Or did you literally mean he play the overall time, regardless of whether it goes well or not.

He was developing fantastically until the Laine hit. Hes been off ever since.

 

[darcyRegier]

So I'm guessing Risto/Scandella/Dhalin have the top 3 spots...with Bogo/McCabe/Guhle/Nelson/Beaulieu/Hunwick competing for the last three. It will be interesting to see who gets them.

My money is on Bogo/McCabe/Guhle with Nelson being the first callup when Bogo gets hurt.

 

[Montag DP]

I wasn't making a comparison of the players. I was pointing out the fact that he didn't crush McCabe in almost every /60 category.

Right. You were comparing their /60 stats.