Roster Speculation, 2018 offseason Part 4/ Post-free agency edition

[OkimLom]

He was developing fantastically until the Laine hit. Hes been off ever since.

I don’t see the fantastically development in McCabe. I see a guy who might’ve been playing better than most of our #5-#9 defenseman, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he was playing good hockey.

 

[joshjull]

mccabe's isbad/60 is way higher than guhle's

Now that is a compelling argument

 

[joshjull]

Right. You were comparing their /60 stats.

As you correctly pointed out, the sample sizes really make using those numbers difficult.

 

[sabrebuild]

He was developing fantastically until the Laine hit. Hes been off ever since.

I think fantastic is strong. I think he was developing into a full time nhler. Definitely top 6 on a solid team. But I don’t think he demonstrated top 4 skill with the puck or steady judgment in defense.

I love hits. But I think McCabe got more credit for defense, for plays that were entertaining hits more so than effective goal prevention. Boston as a rookie and Laine are probably his most well remembered plays for his whole career.

To provide an example of what I see as top 4 potential season. Pysyk, in the first Bylsma season showed top 4 talent. The fluid skating and passing skills, the judgment in making quick decisions was impressive. He was a guy who was still learning, but even then was routinely effective. I’m not sure I could say that about McCabe unless we are talking about for a game or a couple periods here and there.

 

[joshjull]

I think fantastic is strong. I think he was developing into a full time nhler. Definitely top 6 on a solid team. But I don’t think he demonstrated top 4 skill with the puck or steady judgment in defense.

I love hits. But I think McCabe got more credit for defense, for plays that were entertaining hits more so than effective goal prevention. Boston as a rookie and Laine are probably his most well remembered plays for his whole career.

To provide an example of what I see as top 4 potential season. Pysyk, in the first Bylsma season showed top 4 talent. The fluid skating and passing skills, the judgment in making quick decisions was impressive. He was a guy who was still learning, but even then was routinely effective. I’m not sure I could say that about McCabe unless we are talking about for a game or a couple periods here and there.

@Fezzy126 lays out a pretty compelling case that McCabe did a good job at preventing zone entry and protecting the house with his earlier post https://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/148333035/

The question with McCabe is how do the want to use him. As a compliment to a more offensively capable and/or focused player who he could cover for? Or use him in a shutdown capacity? This the part where i pull my hair out again due to the unreliable nature of Bogo's health. Because any combo of Bogo, McCabe , Scandella used in this role would be great at freeing things up for Risto and Dahlin.

I'm not suggesting McCabe starts as a shutdown or top 4 pairing guy but there may be more potential there than you're giving him credit for.

 

[sabrebuild]

@Fezzy126 lays out a pretty compelling case that McCabe did a good job at preventing zone entry and protecting the house with his earlier post https://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/148333035/

The question with McCabe is how do the want to use him. As a compliment to a more offensively capable and/or focused player who he could cover for? Or use him in a shutdown capacity? This the part where i pull my hair out again due to the unreliable nature of Bogo's health. Because any combo of Bogo, McCabe , Scandella used in this role would be great at freeing things up for Risto and Dahlin.

I'm not suggesting McCabe starts as a shutdown or top 4 pairing guy but there may be more potential there than you're giving him credit for.

I read fezzy’s post. Liked it. Didn’t feel compelled by it to think he is a caliber of player I want in my top 4, and I’m referring to his potential. I don’t see the transition skills to give him 20 minutes a night. I think his defense is good enough with his skating to be a good third pair guy who can’t really carry the mail in a second pair role.

Hopefully he finds consistency and some more offense and can be that second pair jack of all trades guy.

Honestly I think that’s a good outcome for Jake. For a second round pick with no special traits, size, skating, skill, at the nhl level, he will carve out a role as a competent nhler who can bounce around a lineup, but can’t consistently win matchups enough to take on the best a ton.

Now Bogosian on the other hand may decide whether this crap show is in the Hughes hopefuls or flirts with the playoffs into Christmas.

 

[joshjull]

I read fezzy’s post. Liked it. Didn’t feel compelled by it to think he is a caliber of player I want in my top 4, and I’m referring to his potential. I don’t see the transition skills to give him 20 minutes a night. I think his defense is good enough with his skating to be a good third pair guy who can’t really carry the mail in a second pair role.

Hopefully he finds consistency and some more offense and can be that second pair jack of all trades guy.

Honestly I think that’s a good outcome for Jake. For a second round pick with no special traits, size, skating, skill, at the nhl level, he will carve out a role as a competent nhler who can bounce around a lineup, but can’t consistently win matchups enough to take on the best a ton.

Now Bogosian on the other hand may decide whether this crap show is in the Hughes hopefuls or flirts with the playoffs into Christmas.

When you say you don’t see the transition skills to give him 20 minutes a night. I have two thoughts on that

1) I don't see McCabe's potential transition game being any worse than Scandella's.

2) I'm going to assume you mean 20mins at ES since you mentioned his transition game. I agree McCabe shouldn't be playing 20mins a night at ES but he doesn't need to to be a top 4 dman. He can play anywhere from 16-17mins to 20+mins a night at ES and be one. There were only about 10-12 dmen that played 20 or more at ES last year (Risto being one of them).

 

[Chainshot]

At some point someone on his team has to break through right? Somebody has to establish a new career high, or new benchmark, or step into the role and perform. I suppose we’re just gonna have to wait and see if that happens. It’s not my favorite, but it is what we’re left with right now.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Things I'd like to see Botterill do:

- Move Okposo. If the 2020 thing is really the plan, move him as best you can and play for that year. Calgary fans said a move for Brouwer and Stone would be fair - not that I take HF opinion as fact - but no one shot it down. Maybe if Okposo plays well and the Flames are in it, this becomes an option.

- Find a young RHD prospect. My target has been Fabbro for a while. I think Botterill has the ability to go get him if he doesn't kill it this year at BU and the Preds re-sign Ellis.

- Find a young forward with a Bonino/Rust combination of grit/speed/skill. Sam Bennett is who I'd look at.

I don't consider any of these moves as rebuild acceleration moves, just shifting of assets. That said, I'd be willing to move SJ or STL 1st for a deal for Fabbro or Bennett. Maybe deals like this:

Okposo, Bailey, STL 1st to Calgary for Brouwer, Stone, Bennett

SJ 1st, Girgensons or Larsson to Nashville for Fabbro

 

[EichHart]

At some point someone on his team has to break through right? Somebody has to establish a new career high, or new benchmark, or step into the role and perform. I suppose we’re just gonna have to wait and see if that happens. It’s not my favorite, but it is what we’re left with right now.

I miss the good ole days where players like Pommers and Roy were added to an already decent core of players. Imagine getting those two in their prime added to this team, we need some of our late round picks to contribute.

 

[Djp]

When you say you don’t see the transition skills to give him 20 minutes a night. I have two thoughts on that

1) I don't see McCabe's potential transition game being any worse than Scandella's.

2) I'm going to assume you mean 20mins at ES since you mentioned his transition game. I agree McCabe shouldn't be playing 20mins a night at ES but he doesn't need to to be a top 4 dman. He can play anywhere from 16-17mins to 20+mins a night at ES and be one. There were only about 10-12 dmen that played 20 or more at ES last year (Risto being one of them).

I don’t see mccabe getting that much ES time.

Say on avg each team has 4 POsand 4 PKs ...that leaves 44 min

Divide this by 3 you get around 14:40 ES time. Add to that PK time...if evenly split over the 3 pairs you get 2:40 PK TitL around 17:20

 

[Der Jaeger]

I miss the good ole days where players like Pommers and Roy were added to an already decent core of players. Imagine getting those two in their prime added to this team, we need some of our late round picks to contribute.

I think that the Sabres will get there in a couple seasons. By that time, Eichel, Reinhart, Mittelstadt, Dahlin, and Ristolainen should be hitting their stride. They'll be supported by some late picks like Olofsson, Ullmark, and Malone, as well as Thompson, Guhle, Pilut, and hopefully Nylander. Sheary, Sobotka, Scandella, and Bogosian are all UFAs, if they aren't gone earlier. Imagine this shell:

Girgensons - Eichel - Thompson
Nylander - Mittelstadt - Okposo
Olofsson - Reinhart - ERod
Smith - Malone - O'Regan
x Berglund, Oglevie

Dahlin - Ristolainen
Guhle - McCabe
Pilut - Nelson

Ullmark, Hutton

Now add Asplund, Davidsson, Samuelsson, Borgen, and Pu to that group. Doesn't look so bad.

 

[Fezzy126]

Interesting thought here from Bove:



Orpik's numbers are not pretty, neither was watching him play. But every single game during the playoffs the announcers would talk about his "influence in the room". Every. Single. Game.

While I believe in concepts like chemistry, and the 'sum is greater than the parts', I would not condone this move. It reeks of Gorges 2.0.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Interesting thought here from Bove:



Orpik's numbers are not pretty, neither was watching him play. But every single game during the playoffs the announcers would talk about his "influence in the room". Every. Single. Game.

While I believe in concepts like chemistry, and the 'sum is greater than the parts', I would not condone this move. It reeks of Gorges 2.0.

I agree that an Orpik contract could go the way of Gorges. However, the issue with Gorges wasn't his play as much as it was slotting him next to Ristolainen. And, he had a 3 year contract, which wasn't helpful.

I'd be on board for a year. Sabres have the contract space and cap space. At best, he's a great influence on the team. Middle range, he's moved at the TDL. Worst case is he's an anchor but one that's gone at the end of the year.

 

[jc17]

Girgensons - Eichel - Thompson
Nylander - Mittelstadt - Okposo
Olofsson - Reinhart - ERod
Smith - Malone - O'Regan
x Berglund, Oglevie

Dahlin - Ristolainen
Guhle - McCabe
Pilut - Nelson

Ullmark, Hutton

Now add Asplund, Davidsson, Samuelsson, Borgen, and Pu to that group. Doesn't look so bad.

Its really hard to get excited about this when I feel like we've been over-projecting our prospects for years.

8 of those 12 forwards have never played a full NHL season. 4/6 defensemen, although I understand how promising they look, especially with Pilut and Dahlin's pro experience.

Its the same reason I questioned Davidsson in the other thread. It just seems like every year we put together these future lineups which consist of guys that are irrelevant to us a few years later. I hope this time is different, and that these guys can all come up and contribute at the NHL level, but if history has taught us anything its a long shot.

 

[Dreakon13]

Interesting thought here from Bove:



Orpik's numbers are not pretty, neither was watching him play. But every single game during the playoffs the announcers would talk about his "influence in the room". Every. Single. Game.

While I believe in concepts like chemistry, and the 'sum is greater than the parts', I would not condone this move. It reeks of Gorges 2.0.

I would've been more interested in Orpik if we could've been in on that deal for him and Grubauer instead of Colorado.

 

[Man of Principles]

I think that the Sabres will get there in a couple seasons. By that time, Eichel, Reinhart, Mittelstadt, Dahlin, and Ristolainen should be hitting their stride. They'll be supported by some late picks like Olofsson, Ullmark, and Malone, as well as Thompson, Guhle, Pilut, and hopefully Nylander. Sheary, Sobotka, Scandella, and Bogosian are all UFAs, if they aren't gone earlier. Imagine this shell:

Girgensons - Eichel - Thompson
Nylander - Mittelstadt - Okposo
Olofsson - Reinhart - ERod
Smith - Malone - O'Regan
x Berglund, Oglevie

Dahlin - Ristolainen
Guhle - McCabe
Pilut - Nelson

Ullmark, Hutton

Now add Asplund, Davidsson, Samuelsson, Borgen, and Pu to that group. Doesn't look so bad.

Berglund's gonna play. Book that.

 

[sabrebuild]

At some point someone on his team has to break through right? Somebody has to establish a new career high, or new benchmark, or step into the role and perform. I suppose we’re just gonna have to wait and see if that happens. It’s not my favorite, but it is what we’re left with right now.

I have been thinking the same for a bit now.

I’m not sure if Housley will give chances to the guys who are my dark horses to breakout.

 

[Tsyolin]

Interesting thought here from Bove:



Orpik's numbers are not pretty, neither was watching him play. But every single game during the playoffs the announcers would talk about his "influence in the room". Every. Single. Game.

While I believe in concepts like chemistry, and the 'sum is greater than the parts', I would not condone this move. It reeks of Gorges 2.0.

Sure for a year, after that though our blue line will actually be too crowded to keep him around.

 

[joshjull]

Its really hard to get excited about this when I feel like we've been over-projecting our prospects for years.

8 of those 12 forwards have never played a full NHL season. 4/6 defensemen, although I understand how promising they look, especially with Pilut and Dahlin's pro experience.

Its the same reason I questioned Davidsson in the other thread. It just seems like every year we put together these future lineups which consist of guys that are irrelevant to us a few years later. I hope this time is different, and that these guys can all come up and contribute at the NHL level, but if history has taught us anything its a long shot.

Fair points.

You'd be hard pressed to find someone more excited about the youth coming into the system right now than myself. But I'd be very surprised if that many of these youngsters panned out and became regulars on our NHL roster as Der Jaeger projects.

That large influx of young talent added to what we have plus a farm system building something and better set up for development should lead to some big gains for the organzation. But the gains I envision are not the amount of NHLers projected by Der Jaeger. The benefits I envision are some of the youth panning out as NHLers, better overall organizational depth from the NHL to the AHL to the ECHL and a winning development environment in Rochester. Which hopefully works towards reversing our terrible development history that you pointed out.

 

[Snippit]

So Trouba might get traded..

 

[Der Jaeger]

Its really hard to get excited about this when I feel like we've been over-projecting our prospects for years.

8 of those 12 forwards have never played a full NHL season. 4/6 defensemen, although I understand how promising they look, especially with Pilut and Dahlin's pro experience.

Its the same reason I questioned Davidsson in the other thread. It just seems like every year we put together these future lineups which consist of guys that are irrelevant to us a few years later. I hope this time is different, and that these guys can all come up and contribute at the NHL level, but if history has taught us anything its a long shot.

Fair points.

You'd be hard pressed to find someone more excited about the youth coming into the system right now than myself. But I'd be very surprised if that many of these youngsters panned out and became regulars on our NHL roster as Der Jaeger projects.

That large influx of young talent added to what we have plus a farm system building something and better set up for development should lead to some big gains for the organzation. But the gains I envision are not the amount of NHLers projected by Der Jaeger. The benefits I envision are some of the youth panning out as NHLers, better overall organizational depth from the NHL to the AHL to the ECHL and a winning development environment in Rochester. Which hopefully works towards reversing our terrible development history that you pointed out.

All good points. However, when you're looking at sheer numbers of players in the system who have legitimate NHL upside, the Sabres haven't had this type of outlook in a while. The difference is that the Sabres have a legitimate core in the right spots. It's not wishes upon a star, hoping Ennis is really a center. Or talking yourself into think Grigorenko would pan out. I get that only about a third of the prospects will pan out. Even then, that's a huge bonus for the Sabres with the number of players who could make an NHL roster.

Forwards:
Thompson
Olofsson
Asplund
Davidsson
Bailey
Baptiste
Oglevie
O'Regan
Malone
Nylander
Smith
Pu
Pekar

Defense:
Borgen
Guhle
Pilut
Samuelsson
Hickey
Fitzgerald

Just play the odds. Pick 1/3 of each group to pan out. That's 4 forwards and 2 D to add to the current group.

I'll pick Thompson, Olofsson, Asplund, and Davidsson to pan out at forward. That leaves a huge bust in Nylander, and a lot of "could've beens."
I'll take Borgen and Guhle on D, leaving Samuelsson as a bust (I don't think he will, but for argument's sake).

Here's that roster again:

Asplund - Eichel - Thompson
Davidsson - Mittelstadt - Okposo
Olofsson - Reinhart - ERod
Girgensons - Berglund - X

Dahlin - Ristolainen
Guhle - Borgen
McCabe - Nelson

Big need at RHD and probably need another forward in the top 9 to replace Okposo. Still, if those players develop, that's a good roster.

 

[Sabre Dance]

So Trouba might get traded..

Know anyone in the Sabres organization with a fondness for Michigan players?

 

[Chainshot]

I have been thinking the same for a bit now.

I’m not sure if Housley will give chances to the guys who are my dark horses to breakout.

I’m not sure one way or another, all we can really do is wait and see.

 

[joshjull]

I have been thinking the same for a bit now.

I’m not sure if Housley will give chances to the guys who are my dark horses to breakout.

Who are your dark horses? Mine is Asplund.