Roster Speculation, 2018 offseason Part 4/ Post-free agency edition

[GellMann]

Saying Dahlin should play on the 3rd pairing is like saying Eichel should play on the third line 3 summers ago. Dahlin is going to play top 4 minutes right away. He's a phenom and those guys make an instant impact. There is no more major moves in the pipeline the cap is too tight to add a big contract. Scandella, Risto, Dahlin, Bogo and McCabe can handle top 4 duties. I want to see what Dahlin has and that means he needs 16-17 mins at ES and ample PP time. 19-20 minutes his rookie year is on the Low end of the spectrum, I can see him getting 22 minutes a game.

Matthews did exactly that, to his immense benefit.

 

[Royal Thunder]

Matthews did exactly that, to his immense benefit.

How did he play 3C when he led their forwards in average ice time. He had around 17-18 minutes right away. Babcock rolled the top 3 lines pretty evenly but Matthews got the most ice, strange for a 3C...

 

[GellMann]

How did he play 3C when he led their forwards in average ice time. He had around 17-18 minutes right away. Babcock rolled the top 3 lines pretty evenly but Matthews got the most ice, strange for a 3C...

He got easier minutes than either Bozak or Kadri, so his usage was 3rd toughest among their 4 centers, and their ES ice time was functionally identical - less than a minute per game difference between the three. This usage was both easier in terms of zone starts, where he was vastly sheltered relative to most NHL players, at over 60% offensive slant, and in quality of competition, in which Kadri's minutes were grueling and Bozak's less so but still tougher than Auston's. Auston faced 52 seconds of PK time the entire season, so his overall minute difference came largely via the power play.

If you look at the list of his most common opponents played (fun fact - despite being in a different division, the forward Eichel saw the most this season was Crosby, because we love setting up our players to succeed by sending them out against Crosby with Pominville stapled to his side) you find a bunch of second and third liners and 2nd pairing D at the top of the list, and of course, the Eichel line for Buffalo, which absolutely hemorrhaged goals against in 16-17. But completely absent from the top are the names Bergeron, Crosby, Barkov etc.

He was given a role far different than anything we did to Jack, who again, has been allowed to face lines he's not ready for, even if he's had varying degrees of zone start percentage (I don't know what they are off the top of my head), and just like Auston was served well via competent usage, Dahlin could very well be too.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Skinner-Eichel-Olofsson
(Improve Eichel's 2-way game so he is well above average defensively. Have Olofsson the first guy back and the 3rd sniper option on the attack. Let Eichel be a playmaker, his main strength, two sniper options with speed. This line can be potentially be dynamite depending on how NHL ready [and good] Olofsson is. Eichel and Skinner take turns carrying the puck with Skinner as the main go-to speed winger to pass to in the neutral zone to generate offence)

Reinhart-Mittelstadt-Rodriquez
(Reinhart develops/emphasizes a more offence and puck distribution game, screen the goalie in front of the net for rebounds, but coach him into a defensive winger, first one back, relentless back-checker. Mittelstadt the dynamic puck-carrier with speed to distribute the puck to a speedy Rodriquez for tic-tac-toe plays. Rodriquez's speed and ability for both Mittelstadt to be open controls possession, as Reinhart cashes in his rebounds and defensive perimeter play to keep it in the o-zone with the poke-check. Rodriquez generates his own offense & creates chances with tape-to-tape passes to Mitts. [right handed/left handed] with Mittelstadt and him driving possession. Mittelstadt and Rodriquez add speed to complement Reinhart's lack of foot-speed [Reinhart should ALWAYS play on a line with 2 other fast players] )

Girgensons-Berglund-Okposo
(turn Girgensons into a back-checking defensive force [his offence just isn't there] focus on puck possession and board battles with a little edge to his game, tenacious on the forecheck, and a legit force in the defensive zone [put on more muscle.] Berglund plays the role of the two-way shut down center but also emphasizes his offensive game and generates scoring chances and goals, carries the puck deep with two options in as he enters the zone. Okposo in front of the net to screen the goalie for rebounds and snipes close to the net [he's good at that] have Okposo focus purely on offence considering that he's too slow to get back for the backcheck, and Okposo is actually pretty good offensively if he focuses just on that. Berglund drives possession and carries the puck into the neutral zone, with 2 high-IQ players to feed off of. The wild card is Girgensons- can he be developed to reach his potential? Girgensons and Berglund add some speed to Okposo's deadweight stride. Okposo thrives on a less-pressured 3rd line)

Sobotka-Larsson-Baptiste
(The 'nasty' line that can score and generate offence. Larsson is actually pretty good when he plays center in a shutdown role [Remember Foligno-Larsson-Gionta?] Have him be the pest, if not overly-physically- 'nastily', relentlessly slap the stick against the goalie for rebounds, tenacious on the forecheck, basically turn him into a complete 2-way force but focus on dominating the backcheck and defensive game [defensive center first man back] Sobotka adds a nasty, physical element but can create offence with a speedy Baptiste to feed off each other for scoring chances. Baptiste is the trigger-man, and he learns to play a little bit more on the edge. In the zone, have Baptiste get open and use him as a true natural goal-scorer. This line might just generate chances with some chemistry between them.)


The lines I describe balance the slow players with speed, which IMO is crucially important.




Ristolainen-Dahlin (If Risto can switch to LD. 2 of the best hypothetical defenseman on the same line. Risto becomes a true shutdown man who gets points off the PP, he gets possession/wins board battles to get to an open Dahlin for him to carry the puck through the neutral zone. Dahlin focuses on offensive game first season. Also Dahlin has a bit of protection in the event that Dahlin is antagonized in any way, as Risto plays a hard, nasty game. Risto can mentor Dahlin. The 'Rasmi' line)

Scandella-Pilut (Scandella is two-way defenseman with the ability to carry it through the neutral zone for the outlet pass but emphasize and lean towards being a shutdown d-man who wins board battles, has high defensive IQ/doesn't make mistakes stupid plays. A good positional defenseman. Pilut carries the puck with speed and generates offence.

Guhle-Bogosian (Bogosian the physical shutdown defenseman in a more amicable 3rd pairing role, have him win the board battles and the ability to get the puck to an open Guhle, who carries the puck and makes smart plays to carry it to the neutral zone and pass it to the FAST players, on the rush.)

If Risto can't switch to LD:

Scandella-Ristolainen (Risto and Scandella both play a shutdown role, but Risto quarterbacks the puck from the neutral zone and makes smart plays/tape-to-tape passes to amass secondary assists. Scandella is a defensive defenseman.)

Pilut-Dahlin (A line of skill and speed but may lack a bit of NHL experience. An offensive defensive pairing that generates offence with Dahlin playing more the shutdown role to learn the defensive game, be the first guy back. In a few years this line might be dynamite or even first pair)

Guhle-Bogosian (aforementioned)

Ullmark (halfway through the season it'll be clear he's the number one)
Hutton (starts but ultimately Ullmark takes his job the first season.)

I feel productive on a Monday evening just past noon.

Why have Reinhart all the sudden play LW and ERod play RW? We broke Reinhart in on the right side, may as well keep him there.