Roster Speculation, 2018 offseason Part 4/ Post-free agency edition

[struckbyaparkedcar]

I just got done watching 10 Blues games, and I'm not a huge Berglund guy or a fan of the trade, AND I really thought Larsson was going to be a bottom 6 staple for us before that arm injury, but the Berglund I saw in those ten games spread across the year was notably better than the best Larsson has ever been.

The people calling him slow, too, may be correct if you're comparing him to elite NHL players, but I saw no discernable difference between his skating and pretty much any single other Blues player that wasn't Schwartz...and he looked to skate faster than ROR does. Just sayin

This is what playing in front of competent transition defensemen does for you.

And Berglund is still too slow to drive shot quality.

 

[GellMann]

This is what playing in front of competent transition defensemen does for you.

And Berglund is still too slow to drive shot quality.

I don't expect him to drive shot quality, but I do expect him to upgrade a roster piece his presence pushes out (which is why the acquisition would have thrilled me had we made it with a low draft pick and kept ROR).

Berglund's board battles are actually worse than one might expect, but his puck skills are slightly more existent than I was expecting, and he could actually position himself in open space once in a while. He'll take a hit based on the quality of his teammates and still have a wonky goal/assist ratio but in a vacuum I'm glad that he pushes a Griffith/Nolan further away from Phil's hands.

 

[Royal Thunder]

PSA: Berglund isn't good. Sobotka is bad. Stop acting otherwise. Neither should be in the top 6 and ideally neither is in the top 9.

Surprised you aren't a pro scout with this level of insightfulness

They could easily bounce back in a larger and different role this year. They were both kind of lost in the shuffle in STL and this could provide a spark for them. Of course it's no guarantee but neither is it a guarantee that they are bad. They were both full time players with 16+ minutes a game for a team way better than us. We can all see the analytics, but it's all you seem to put any stock into whatsoever. You say Jaskin is an amazing defensive forward yet he averages 3 seconds of PK time over 76 games! Meanwhile "bad" Sobotka and Berglund are both around a minute of pk time a game and if you remove the traded Stastny both were top 6 forwards by even strength and PP ice time.

 

[Royal Thunder]

"a lot more" is a stretch

regardless, the point i was replying to was highlighting his goal scoring...

Come on with this. Pouliot's effort this year after the first 15 games was simply deplorable. Obvious agenda against Botterill is obvious

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

PSA: Berglund isn't good. Sobotka is bad. Stop acting otherwise. Neither should be in the top 6 and ideally neither is in the top 9.

Projecting lines has nothing to do with “should.” Berglund will be in the top 6, if you go by minutes played. We all know that will happen. What “should” happen is a different story.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

PSA: Berglund isn't good. Sobotka is bad. Stop acting otherwise. Neither should be in the top 6 and ideally neither is in the top 9.

This is as ridiculous as saying Sam Reinhart is the best 2014 draft forward, just not true and totally false.

It's funny when you call Berglund a 4th liner, if he's a 4th liner what does that make RoR, a superstar center? Because ESG scoring Berglund is far better then RoR.

The 3 years RoR was here he made $26.5 MILLION in real money. In those 3 years he scored a whopping 65 goals, and a mere 32 of them at ES. Last year Berglund actually scored more ESG then RoR did. And did I mention Berglund played in only 57 games and played literally more then 5 minutes less a game?

Fun fact, Patrik Berglund the last two years in only 139 games actually scored as many ESGs as RoR did in 3 years in 225 games. Berglund in 86 less games and an entire season equaled the even strength goal totals of RoR. Berglund scores 75% of his goals at ES. The last 3 years RoR has scored half his goals at ES.

Berglund is not a star. He is not a first liner. But he is a solid two way vet forward capable of wing and center. He's over 50% in face offs the last 3 years. He makes under $3.9 mil and is a lock for 20 goals per 82 games. Calling him a fourth liner is laughable when he is a far better even strength goal scorer. Now go ahead, post some analytical percentage stats to show how great RoR is when at the end of the day he was given $7.5 mil a year and 1600+ mins a season to score what, 22 goals a year and 60 points? 5v5 scoring is worth a lot more then 20 goals and 60 points when you literally get the most ice time out of any other forward in the entire league.

Berglund will score 70-80 goals over the rest of his contract. For under 4 mil per, I'll take 17-20 goals a season, especially for a two way forward who can win face offs and gives us playoff experience. Berglund will put up 15-20 goals this season playing 16-17 minutes a game. And he will PK, take draws for us and will be one of the few players we have with ample playoff experience and not just the 13 playoff games the soon to be 28 year old RoR has under his belt.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

This is as ridiculous as saying Sam Reinhart is the best 2014 draft forward, just not true and totally false.

It's funny when you call Berglund a 4th liner, if he's a 4th liner what does that make RoR, a superstar center? Because ESG scoring Berglund is far better then RoR.

The 3 years RoR was here he made $26.5 MILLION in real money. In those 3 years he scored a whopping 65 goals, and a mere 32 of them at ES. Last year Berglund actually scored more ESG then RoR did. And did I mention Berglund played in only 57 games and played literally more then 5 minutes less a game?

Fun fact, Patrik Berglund the last two years in only 139 games actually scored as many ESGs as RoR did in 3 years in 225 games. Berglund in 86 less games and an entire season equaled the even strength goal totals of RoR. Berglund scores 75% of his goals at ES. The last 3 years RoR has scored half his goals at ES.

Berglund is not a star. He is not a first liner. But he is a solid two way vet forward capable of wing and center. He's over 50% in face offs the last 3 years. He makes under $3.9 mil and is a lock for 20 goals per 82 games. Calling him a fourth liner is laughable when he is a far better even strength goal scorer. Now go ahead, post some analytical percentage stats to show how great RoR is when at the end of the day he was given $7.5 mil a year and 1600+ mins a season to score what, 22 goals a year and 60 points? 5v5 scoring is worth a lot more then 20 goals and 60 points when you literally get the most ice time out of any other forward in the entire league.

Berglund will score 70-80 goals over the rest of his contract. For under 4 mil per, I'll take 17-20 goals a season, especially for a two way forward who can win face offs and gives us playoff experience. Berglund will put up 15-20 goals this season playing 16-17 minutes a game. And he will PK, take draws for us and will be one of the few players we have with ample playoff experience and not just the 13 playoff games the soon to be 28 year old RoR has under his belt.

Jack Eichel was given ten million dollars a season to be a worse ES goal scorer than Michael Ferlund.

This argument is stupid, stop making it.

 

[Reddawg]

Jack Eichel was given ten million dollars a season to be a worse ES goal scorer than Michael Ferlund.

This argument is stupid, stop making it.

Considering that he hasn't actually played a single second of that contract yet, I'd say the jury is out thusfar.

 

[dotcommunism]

Right?!?! I mean his dad was a linebacker, how is it that Bailey doesn't play like a military grade destroyer (a la Tom Wilson)?

Considering that by all accounts Carlton Bailey never played a big role in Justin's life, I don't see why his football position would have much influence on Justin's playing style.

 

[Royal Thunder]

Jack Eichel was given ten million dollars a season to be a worse ES goal scorer than Michael Ferlund.

This argument is stupid, stop making it.

How exactly is 15 EV goals in 77 games better than 22 in 67?!?

This argument is factually incorrect, stop making it (not to even mention Jack wasn't being paid 10 million yet)

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Considering that he hasn't actually played a single second of that contract yet, I'd say the jury is out thusfar.

You’re right, the seasons that earned him the deal were even less productive.

The jury is not out that the team has been so comically bad at scoring goals you’ll see all sorts of bad players outproducing our talent, and you shot probably blame that instead of players who made everyone they played with better offensively.

 

[Reddawg]

You’re right, the seasons that earned him the deal were even less productive.

The jury is not out that the team has been so comically bad at scoring goals you’ll see all sorts of bad players outproducing our talent, and you shot probably blame that instead of players who made everyone they played with better offensively.

The team that was so comically bad at scoring goals has added about 70 of them this offseason.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

How exactly is 15 EV goals in 77 games better than 22 in 67?!?

This argument is factually incorrect, stop making it (not to even mention Jack wasn't being paid 10 million yet)

Scoring rates are a thing, chief.

 

[GellMann]

Sobotka's decline even over the course of this past spring is pretty alarming. I hope he'll be refreshed playing on a new team, but there's a real chance he doesn't last long in the lineup, especially if a couple of kids surprise.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

The team that was so comically bad at scoring goals has added about 70 of them this offseason.

It would have added more if it didn’t turn O’Reilly into comprehensively worse players.

 

[Royal Thunder]

Scoring rates are a thing, chief.

Context is a thing too. It's been proven scoring doesn't go up linear with ice time, certainly not to the point where one would consider a 15 EV goal scorer better at EV goal scoring than a guy who paced for 25 if he had played as many games (on a far worse team too). Ferland got crazy hot with Johnny but only scored a handful of goals in the entire second half

 

[Reddawg]

It would have added more if it didn’t turn O’Reilly into comprehensively worse players.

I have no idea what this means, other than a fresh declaration of not being able to let it go with regard to O'Reilly.

 

[Royal Thunder]

Sobotka's decline even over the course of this past spring is pretty alarming. I hope he'll be refreshed playing on a new team, but there's a real chance he doesn't last long in the lineup, especially if a couple of kids surprise.

what do you mean by his decline over the course of the spring? Last year as a whole was considered a down year for him and he didn't play with the grit he used to be known for. It's unknown which version of Sobotka we will get but I don't see anything that happened this spring to be "alarming" unless I'm missing something. He still had 31 points and a career high in goals and would have been one of our better players last year (not saying much I know)

 

[OkimLom]

This is as ridiculous as saying Sam Reinhart is the best 2014 draft forward, just not true and totally false.

It's funny when you call Berglund a 4th liner, if he's a 4th liner what does that make RoR, a superstar center? Because ESG scoring Berglund is far better then RoR.

The 3 years RoR was here he made $26.5 MILLION in real money. In those 3 years he scored a whopping 65 goals, and a mere 32 of them at ES. Last year Berglund actually scored more ESG then RoR did. And did I mention Berglund played in only 57 games and played literally more then 5 minutes less a game?

Fun fact, Patrik Berglund the last two years in only 139 games actually scored as many ESGs as RoR did in 3 years in 225 games. Berglund in 86 less games and an entire season equaled the even strength goal totals of RoR. Berglund scores 75% of his goals at ES. The last 3 years RoR has scored half his goals at ES.

Berglund is not a star. He is not a first liner. But he is a solid two way vet forward capable of wing and center. He's over 50% in face offs the last 3 years. He makes under $3.9 mil and is a lock for 20 goals per 82 games. Calling him a fourth liner is laughable when he is a far better even strength goal scorer. Now go ahead, post some analytical percentage stats to show how great RoR is when at the end of the day he was given $7.5 mil a year and 1600+ mins a season to score what, 22 goals a year and 60 points? 5v5 scoring is worth a lot more then 20 goals and 60 points when you literally get the most ice time out of any other forward in the entire league.

Berglund will score 70-80 goals over the rest of his contract. For under 4 mil per, I'll take 17-20 goals a season, especially for a two way forward who can win face offs and gives us playoff experience. Berglund will put up 15-20 goals this season playing 16-17 minutes a game. And he will PK, take draws for us and will be one of the few players we have with ample playoff experience and not just the 13 playoff games the soon to be 28 year old RoR has under his belt.

Fun, stats time! Can I ALSO decide to use selective statistics to prove a point...Let's just forget that our overall team talent these past 3 years has SUCKED! I love your ability to just pick and choose statistics without any context to those numbers. The consistency in which you PURPOSELY misrepresent numbers to paint a bias picture of a guy is not giving posters a good picture of what the player is or how he was used. ROR is without a doubt a two-way playmaker. He was never known for his goal scoring, but more of his playmaking, and his numbers show this, and not only that, but he was productive creating offense.

Oh, and surely the talent level on the team didn't have an impact on ROR's ability to create offense. I mean ROR couldn't create offense, but the rest of the team was able to, not to mention his lack of even strength.

But he to each their own, if you are comfortable enough to say giving the guy who average just under 10 faceoffs a game(1760 TOTAL FO (50 win%) in the past 3 years a share of the guy who average just under 26 faceoffs a game(5727 (58 win%) vs the toughest matchups in the league, will be fine, then so be it. If you're okay with saying that we'll be fine by replacing the guy who averages .76 takeaways(.42 giveaways) a game (again with the toughest and most minutes in the league) with a guy who averaged .48 takeaways(.24 giveaways) a game (with easier minutes), then that's on you.

Your ability to not only mis-cast a player for what he actually did and what he actually is, and then turn around and provide statistics that show how he stunk being the player you mis-cast him for, is jaw-dropping.

If you're going to be critical of someone at least know the context of what you're criticizing him to be. ROR wasn't a perfect player, but don't sit here and think that replacing the guy that played some of the hardest minutes, played some of the toughest matchups, with a guy not close to being tested in a similar role and was less productive in the role he was played in, and someone who is older, is somehow a win, because he gets paid $3 million less.

The 3 years RoR was here he made $26.5 MILLION in real money. In those 3 years he scored a whopping 65 goals, and a mere 32 of them at ES.

The 3 years RoR was here he made $26.5 MILLION in real money. In those 3 years he assisted on a whopping 111 goals, and a mere 68 of them at ES.

Not only that but in the span of those 3 years: ROR was a part of 30% of the Sabres offense: 26% of the offense at even strength.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Context is a thing too. It's been proven scoring doesn't go up linear with ice time, certainly not to the point where one would consider a 15 EV goal scorer better at EV goal scoring than a guy who paced for 25 if he had played as many games (on a far worse team too). Ferland got crazy hot with Johnny but only scored a handful of goals in the entire second half

I know, that’s literally why I made the comparison.

 

[sabrebuild]

Bought Doug Whaleys townhouse

Any pics online? That will be a nice setup as the city keeps improving.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

I have no idea what this means, other than a fresh declaration of not being able to let it go with regard to O'Reilly.

The Sabres added goals have absolutely nothing to do with Patrick Berglund, which, you know, is the conversation you jumped into.

The Sabres added goals for the upcoming season also have nothing to do with comparing players from different rosters from 17-18 and prior.

 

[GellMann]

what do you mean by his decline over the course of the spring? Last year as a whole was considered a down year for him and he didn't play with the grit he used to be known for. It's unknown which version of Sobotka we will get but I don't see anything that happened this spring to be "alarming" unless I'm missing something. He still had 31 points and a career high in goals and would have been one of our better players last year (not saying much I know)

By that I mean if you watch Sobotka's games in November and December, you see a completely different player than what you see if you watch his games in March.

 

[Beerz]

Scoring rates are a thing, chief.

And you are the poster child of all that is wrong with advanced stats

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

And you are the poster child of all that is wrong with advanced stats

Did everyone rushing to dunk on that take completely miss the “Patrick Berglund can replace Ryan O’Reilly because ES goals” that preceded that statement or...?