Roster Speculation, 2018 offseason Part 2/ On the cusp of free agency edition

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struckbyaparkedcar

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This is also LITERALLY what people were saying in the “team is going to be worse” thread:

Not having a trash fire goaltending (which was CJ as much as Lehner) will mean more than pretty much anything, but the O’Reilly trade blows and will limit the team’s positive variance.
 

sabrebuild

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This is why the "This franchise is an absolute mess" thread annoys me.

Yeah there have been some moves that haven't been great, and haven't been what we wanted but it's such an over-reaction. Ottawa, Montreal, NYI, and maybe vancouver are probably the only teams that can be defined as an "absolute mess" right now.

I know everyone is unbelievably sensitive right now.

But would you feel good about this franchise at all if they had not gotten very lucky and won the lottery for Dahlin?

I’m struggling to follow the disconnect between this franchise is a mess thread annoys you, but then you agree in the year and change Botts has been in charge there haven’t been great moves or what we wanted, the team finished last for the first time in three seasons.

I totally agree, Montreal and Ottawa are crap shows right now. But that’s about it league wide. As of today it seems likely to me that Vancouver and the Islanders are on the same level of crap as us.
 

SnuggaRUDE

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Apr 5, 2013
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This is also LITERALLY what people were saying in the “team is going to be worse” thread:

Not having a trash fire goaltending (which was CJ as much as Lehner) will mean more than pretty much anything, but the O’Reilly trade blows and will limit the team’s positive variance.

So maybe tone down the histrionics.
 
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struckbyaparkedcar

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And goalie is literally a position on the team. You don't get to hand wave that away. And your attempts to reframe the discussion away from that albatross are telling.
Because it’s based on a sub-40 game sample for a 33 year old goalie who has never posted those numbers until last season, and who did so on a comprehensively better team?
 
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SnuggaRUDE

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Because it’s based on a sub-40 game sample for a 33 year old goalie who has never posted those numbers until last season, and who did so on a comprehensively better team?

Well now you're starting to sound more productive, why not suggest a different WAR for him, and support it with analysis?
 

Aavvaa

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"Go do a statistical analysis so I can approve of the effort you're putting into your opinions"
 

struckbyaparkedcar

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Well now you're starting to sound more productive, why not suggest a different WAR for him, and support it with analysis?
Goalie WAR correlates pretty consistently with expected/actual splits. Hutton’s were negative the two years before this one.

His HDSV% has been consistently Lehnerian.

Last season was driven by being literally the best MDSV% goalie in the league. That will probably regress.
 

SnuggaRUDE

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I should be excited that the worst xG team in the sport made its skating talent worse?

Mittelstadt and Dahlin will improve that score. The GM has made a lot of positive moves you handwave away.

Signed the best FA Goalie
Signed Pilut
Traded Ennis + Foligno for Scandella
Traded Fasching for Hickey

The Kane trade I think was roughly what people expected

The RoR trade was a loss

It's not all black and white. That sort of sith talk is nonsense.
 
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jc17

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I know everyone is unbelievably sensitive right now.

But would you feel good about this franchise at all if they had not gotten very lucky and won the lottery for Dahlin?

I’m struggling to follow the disconnect between this franchise is a mess thread annoys you, but then you agree in the year and change Botts has been in charge there haven’t been great moves or what we wanted, the team finished last for the first time in three seasons.

I totally agree, Montreal and Ottawa are crap shows right now. But that’s about it league wide. As of today it seems likely to me that Vancouver and the Islanders are on the same level of crap as us.

I mean the Islanders lost their franchise player for free. Again, we might not be thrilled with some of the moves but at least we got something for Kane.

As for the Dahlin point, we don't know how the off-season would be different if we didn't draft him. I know a lot of people feel botterill would sit around and not attempt upgrade the defense, but we really don't know and it's dumb to criticize him for hypothetical non-moves.
 

SnuggaRUDE

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Honestly, at this point, I'm not sure if you're going into this season a fan of the team, or if you're going to hate-watch them because of the dumb moves they've made.

I hope anyone that miserable watches every minute they play.
 

jc17

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So the analytics that show the team got worse are accurate, but the ones that show the team may have improved are not accurate because they don't account for skating?

Isn't the whole point of the numbers to account for this stuff? It's like when people argue intangibles, if they are there, they will show up in the numbers.
 

Husko

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Jun 30, 2006
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I really don’t get the “Sabres got slower” narrative. Berglund is faster than ROR. Sobotka is probably about the same. Sheary adds good speed and Dahlin adds elite speed. Factor in Rochester wingers pushing for spots and we should be a much faster team.
 
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Zip15

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The chart tracks adds and losses of wins above replacement. It shows they added more WAR than any other team at this point.

You're trying to make people read the LITERAL OPPOSITE of it shows. This is insane.

So the analytics that show the team got worse are accurate, but the ones that show the team may have improved are not accurate because they don't account for skating?

Isn't the whole point of the numbers to account for this stuff? It's like when people argue intangibles, if they are there, they will show up in the numbers.

The primary reason many disliked the ROR trade so much is bolstered by this chart: we were going to be better with the additions of Hutton and Sheary (and Dahlin and Mitts). Substantially better, even, depending on how much those young guys could have provided, plus some of the unknowns (e.g., Olofsson, Pilut, et al.). We would've been lapping the field in this metric had we retained ROR. Then we went and traded one of our two best skaters by this metric for minor pieces (for this season, anyways - I recognize the futures aspect to the deal, as well).

I felt we were in a place where we could press forward with ROR and make some additions, while also not compromising the future, and be in the playoff conversation. I don't think we're in that conversation right now. IMO, this a 75-point team. That's improvement from last year - but that's not the standard in light of where I think they could have been.
 

sabrebuild

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I mean the Islanders lost their franchise player for free. Again, we might not be thrilled with some of the moves but at least we got something for Kane.

As for the Dahlin point, we don't know how the off-season would be different if we didn't draft him. I know a lot of people feel botterill would sit around and not attempt upgrade the defense, but we really don't know and it's dumb to criticize him for hypothetical non-moves.

The Islanders definitely did lose Tavares, but they still have Barzal who produced better than Eichel, have solid depth throughout their roster and have solid hockey management and coaching. Emotionally stun yes, a down turn next year, yes. But with the two first rounders this year, they could shape up just fine.

To your point on Dahlin, totally agree we have no idea what they would have done.

But realistically let’s say they had gotten the 3 overall, pick whoever, since nobody outside of svech and Dahlin are predicted to be ready for next year. So the ceiling is lower, and the timeline kicks down the road. And then you look at the d available and you realize, best case scenario you spent a boatload on de Haan, maybe. Or you trade O’Reilly for a top 4 d, basically extending the Scandella trade, just shifting talent, not adding.

It’s a rabbit hole from there on, but man, without the lotto luck, it’s really hard to see a pure positive that has come since Botts took over. In my mind, even if you think O’Reilly is Uber cancer, I think the best you can say is that Botts took a loss on talent for a year or two to protect the team long term.

Which could be good. Ehh, hard to be excited for this season, other than blind hope that rookies come in and dominate, and that the domination could only happen in a O’Reilly free zone.
 

struckbyaparkedcar

Guilty of Being Right
Mar 1, 2008
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So the analytics that show the team got worse are accurate, but the ones that show the team may have improved are not accurate because they don't account for skating?

Isn't the whole point of the numbers to account for this stuff? It's like when people argue intangibles, if they are there, they will show up in the numbers.
The analytics show the team got better on the whole if Hutton’s numbers from last season are sustainable. There is a lot of evidence they aren’t.

The very same numbers say the team’s skating talent got worse before you factor in the kids.
 

joshjull

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Aug 2, 2005
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We have now entered bizarro HF where struck argues against a Sean Tierney chart.

I happen to agree with him. I’ve always had an issue with attempts at predictive stuff and taking them at face value.
 

Tsyolin

Amerks Enthusiast
May 26, 2018
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We have now entered bizarro HF where struck argues against a Sean Tierney chart.

I happen to agree with him. I’ve always had an issue with attempts at predictive stuff and taking them at face value.

These are truely tumultuous times.
 

sabrebuild

Registered User
Apr 21, 2014
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Pittsburgh
We have now entered bizarro HF where struck argues against a Sean Tierney chart.

I happen to agree with him. I’ve always had an issue with attempts at predictive stuff and taking them at face value.

Particularly on those small samples for a goalie.

I mean I hope Hutton can replicate last year or better, but it feels like a coin flip to me.

I don’t think anyone could reasonably be shocked if he floated in the same area as Lehner, with slightly different weaknesses.
 

joshjull

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
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Hamburg,NY
Particularly on those small samples for a goalie.

I mean I hope Hutton can replicate last year or better, but it feels like a coin flip to me.

I don’t think anyone could reasonably be shocked if he floated in the same area as Lehner, with slightly different weaknesses.

My hope is league average goaltending from our tandem.
 
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