Roster Speculation, 2018 offseason Part 2/ On the cusp of free agency edition

[Jame]

I really don’t get the “Sabres got slower” narrative. Berglund is faster than ROR. Sobotka is probably about the same. Sheary adds good speed and Dahlin adds elite speed. Factor in Rochester wingers pushing for spots and we should be a much faster team.

Nope.

Berglund's straight line speed may be in ROR territory, but he's not as good of a skater (edgework, vision).

Sobotka is a plodder.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

We have now entered bizarro HF where struck argues against a Sean Tierney chart.

I happen to agree with him. I’ve always had an issue with attempts at predictive stuff and taking them at face value.

The chart is fine.

It’s only real issue is assuming Hutton’s 17-18 WAR is sustainable. It correctly states the team’s skating talent got worse, and also that improving an awful goalie situation would paper over a lot of the team’s flaws.

 

[I Like Eich]

I don't think anyone expects Hutton to repeat his 2.09 gaa .931 sv% this season, but he will be better than Lehner. Can't forget to account the massive improvement in our defense from last year to this year (Dahlin alone, + continued growth of young guys coming up)

Hutton to me was a great signing because the term is reasonable, and he's a veteran who can show Ullmark the ropes, he's already stated how excited he is to work with him. Everything I've read about Hutton (and Berglund for that matter) as far as their personalities are concerned has been nothing but incredibly positive, which is a complete 180 from what was heard about ROR and Lehner.

While this chart is not the be-all-end-all proof that the Sabres will be better because Hutton will likely not repeat his season last year, I do for many reasons think our time in the basement of the league is over, starting this year.

Going to be another building year, which is frustrating on the surface obviously, but I think with all the dead cap coming off the books next year, and the 3 1st rd picks we have next year, Botts is targeting a big move for next off-season, and 2019-2020 should be the target for seriously competing for playoffs. It's a process - but it's a much better plan than GMTM's shitshow

 

[jc17]

The analytics show the team got better on the whole if Hutton’s numbers from last season are sustainable. There is a lot of evidence they aren’t.

The very same numbers say the team’s skating talent got worse before you factor in the kids.

Are you talking about literal skating metrics or just the metrics of non-goalie skaters?

And @Zip15 , I get your point and I agree. I just think there's some selectivity with when we choose to use or not use the numbers.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Are you talking about literal skating metrics or just the metrics of non-goalie skaters?

And @Zip15 , I get your point and I agree. I just think there's some selectivity with when we choose to use or not use the numbers.

Skaters = forwards & defensemen.

 

[jc17]

Skaters = forwards & defensemen.

Lol I know that.

You said, "The very same numbers say the team’s skating talent got worse before you factor in the kids." which makes it sounds like you're talking about skating ability. Just wanted to clarify.

 

[Tsyolin]

It's hard to get worse then Lehner & Johnson were last year. Even if Hutton doesn't maintain last year's form, him + Ullmark are a leagues better goalie tandem. Only being on the hook for 3.5 million for both of them this season helps.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Lol I know that.

You said, "The very same numbers say the team’s skating talent got worse before you factor in the kids." which makes it sounds like you're talking about skating ability. Just wanted to clarify.

Gotcha.

And yeah, I was talking about “the talent of it’s skaters” not “skating ability.”

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

The primary reason many disliked the ROR trade so much is bolstered by this chart: we were going to be better with the additions of Hutton and Sheary (and Dahlin and Mitts). Substantially better, even, depending on how much those young guys could have provided, plus some of the unknowns (e.g., Olofsson, Pilut, et al.). We would've been lapping the field in this metric had we retained ROR. Then we went and traded one of our two best skaters by this metric for minor pieces (for this season, anyways - I recognize the futures aspect to the deal, as well).

I felt we were in a place where we could press forward with ROR and make some additions, while also not compromising the future, and be in the playoff conversation. I don't think we're in that conversation right now. IMO, this a 75-point team. That's improvement from last year - but that's not the standard in light of where I think they could have been.

I'm about where you are quantitatively. RoR should be good for between 5-8 points over a replacement skater. That would make the Sabres a 80-83 point team. There's not a ton of difference between 75 and 83 points from a playoff point of view. It still wasn't a great trade. I haven't defended the RoR deal as a good idea, and I'm not about to start doing so. But, I don't consider it the death knell of the team either.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Toronto a two years ago had 9 rookies playing on their roster and they made the playoffs.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

Usually this board is overly optimistic and the Sabres are much worse than expected, this year this board is decidedly pessimistic which means ..... we're going to be pretty good.

 

[Aladyyn]

Toronto a two years ago had 9 rookies playing on their roster and they made the playoffs.

They also had very strong underlying numbers in their last place season. So a bit of a difference there.

 

[ZZamboni]

Usually this board is overly optimistic and the Sabres are much worse than expected, this year this board is decidedly pessimistic which means ..... we're going to be pretty good.

Hmm in the years I’ve been on these boards... I’ve seen it get more and more pessimistic, shallow and whiny.
Not only that. But also very narrow minded or intolerant of others views. 5-6 years ago, if someone had an opposing POV on a topic. If you had 5, 6 or a dozen other posters presenting logical rational reasons why that persons POV was wrong, the lone person would consider it, and more times than not, see the error of their thought and concede and agree with the well thought out logic.
Now? Now no matter what quite a few posters (not all) just want to stomp, cross their arms and yell their opinion. And screw everyone and their opposing opinion. Even after several posters are laying out good reasons why they may be wrong. It’s histrionic and sometimes semi-narcissistic.
Odd phenomenon.

 

[Jim Carr's Rug]

Hmm in the years I’ve been on these boards... I’ve seen it get more and more pessimistic, shallow and whiny.
Not only that. But also very narrow minded or intolerant of others views. 5-6 years ago, if someone had an opposing POV on a topic. If you had 5, 6 or a dozen other posters presenting logical rational reasons why that persons POV was wrong, the lone person would consider it, and more times than not, see the error of their thought and concede and agree with the well thought out logic.
Now? Now no matter what quite a few posters (not all) just want to stomp, cross their arms and yell their opinion. And screw everyone and their opposing opinion. Even after several posters are laying out good reasons why they may be wrong. It’s histrionic and sometimes semi-narcissistic.
Odd phenomenon.

Welcome to 2018. We're in the Polarized, Post-Truth, Anti-Expert, Tribalistic Age of Subjectivity.

 

[1972]

They also had very strong underlying numbers in their last place season. So a bit of a difference there.

Half the team was different

 

[BuzzKillington90]

Hmm in the years I’ve been on these boards... I’ve seen it get more and more pessimistic, shallow and whiny.
Not only that. But also very narrow minded or intolerant of others views. 5-6 years ago, if someone had an opposing POV on a topic. If you had 5, 6 or a dozen other posters presenting logical rational reasons why that persons POV was wrong, the lone person would consider it, and more times than not, see the error of their thought and concede and agree with the well thought out logic.
Now? Now no matter what quite a few posters (not all) just want to stomp, cross their arms and yell their opinion. And screw everyone and their opposing opinion. Even after several posters are laying out good reasons why they may be wrong. It’s histrionic and sometimes semi-narcissistic.
Odd phenomenon.

I want to like this post more then once. Forums won't let me :-/

 

[TehDoak]

Toronto a two years ago had 9 rookies playing on their roster and they made the playoffs.

16/31 teams make the playoffs.

I know its been awhile for the Sabres, but its not a huge accomplishment.

By definition, making the playoffs is being "average"

If Buffalo gets good contributions from Dahlin, Mittelstadt, and maybe one other darkhorse like Olofsson, they catch some scheduling breaks (like playing a good team in the midst of a rash of injuries), they could easily be a playoff team next year.

I don't think its likely given the state of the roster, but it certainly isn't an impossibility.

 

[Aladyyn]

Half the team was different

The coach wasn't.

 

[joshjull]

I’m trying to guess our center group. So far I’ve come up with nothing I feel certain about beyond Jack centering the top offensive line.

Jack centering the top offensive line
XXX centering the top defensive line
YYY centering the secondary scoring line
ZZZ 4th line center (most likely defensively focused)

XXX - Berglund, Sobotka, Larsson or even Sam.

YYY - Mitts, Sam or my longshot wildcard Asplund.

ZZZ - Larsson, Sobotka,Girgs or my buddy Asplund again. Malone could be a long shot here as well. But I’m thinking he gets another year with Amerks to work on the offensive side of his game.

Any of you feel more certain on how this sorts out?

 

[Paxon]

I’m trying to guess our center group. So far I’ve come up with nothing I feel certain about beyond Jack centering the top offensive line.

Jack centering the top offensive line
XXX centering the top defensive line
YYY centering the secondary scoring line
ZZZ 4th line center (most likely defensively focused)

XXX - Berglund, Sobotka, Larsson or even Sam.

YYY - Mitts, Sam or my longshot wildcard Asplund.

ZZZ - Larsson, Sobotka,Girgs or my buddy Asplund again. Malone could be a long shot here as well. But I’m thinking he gets another year with Amerks to work on the offensive side of his game.

Any of you feel more certain on how this sorts out?

I definitely do not feel any more certain than this. The will he/won't he of Sam at center alone makes it impossible to figure.

 

[Montag DP]

Usually this board is overly optimistic and the Sabres are much worse than expected, this year this board is decidedly pessimistic which means ..... we're going to be pretty good.

Come on, man, don't reverse reverse jinx the reverse jinx.

 

[Aladyyn]

Honestly, at this point, I'm not sure if you're going into this season a fan of the team, or if you're going to hate-watch them because of the dumb moves they've made.

It's not hard to be both at the same time.

 

[labbatt]

My greatest fear this year is pairing Dahlin and Risto together. How may years have we and coaching staff/ management said, we need to reduce Risto's minutes, the guy is gassed, but who else are we going to put out there? For the first time since Risto came up we actually have a chance to cut into his minutes. I think Risto, still having his legs under him at the half way point of the season will allow him to have a break out year for us. Not to mention what Dahlin himself will bring to the team.

 

[Gabrielor]

It's not hard to be both at the same time.

It's silly.

I spent months arguing OReilly's worth, only for Botts to undersell the hell out of that.

But I've made it to the point where I'm ready to discuss how to make this group better. You guys are stuck in the endless cycle of complaints, where Botts is doomed and can never be redeemed. If we lose this year, 'I told you so'. If we win, 'Imagine how much better we were with OReilly.'

I like reading these forums for several different reasons, and takes, but post-OReilly trade, there's literally been zero discussion that isn't whining about this trade. It's over.

 

[jc17]

I’m trying to guess our center group. So far I’ve come up with nothing I feel certain about beyond Jack centering the top offensive line.

Jack centering the top offensive line
XXX centering the top defensive line
YYY centering the secondary scoring line
ZZZ 4th line center (most likely defensively focused)

XXX - Berglund, Sobotka, Larsson or even Sam.

YYY - Mitts, Sam or my longshot wildcard Asplund.

ZZZ - Larsson, Sobotka,Girgs or my buddy Asplund again. Malone could be a long shot here as well. But I’m thinking he gets another year with Amerks to work on the offensive side of his game.

Any of you feel more certain on how this sorts out?

This might be a dumb idea and I'll be glad to hear it if it is, but how about this:

Ditch the idea of offensive and defensive lines. I think the push for a "defensive line"really contributed to our lack of scoring and inability to transition from zone to zone.

Let's not start berglund and sobotka and (god forbid) Larsson in the d zone where they won't get out but give them o zone starts where they have a chance to contribute. Start eichel and sheary in the d zone or neutral zone where they might create some mismatches with speed in transition.

I don't know, this might be backwards but I really don't want to see two lines that aren't expected to ever score and are trusted to shut down other teams, because it seems like that rarely happens