Roster Speculation, 2018 offseason Part 2/ On the cusp of free agency edition

[Kyndig]

Don't understand the desire to throw 1st round picks at anything. It's not like we're one piece away from winning the cup.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Don't understand the desire to throw 1st round picks at anything. It's not like we're one piece away from winning the cup.

Many people would prefer it if we didn’t sit around drafting and developing for 5 more years until we are. Nothing too challenging to understand.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Also do I have to rekind people McAvoy was also a rookie. Werenski, too. Provorov, too. "Rookie" doesnt mean much in todays NHL if you have the skill. Lets hope one of Guhle or Pilut grab that top4 spot by playoffs time if McCabe can't lock it down for the season. Plenty of things to be optimistic about - have added depth at both D and F and hopefully have made the right moves with goaltending although I have some doubts about Hutton and unfortunately for Ullmark too to some extend.

 

[Sabretip]

But you can't trade a 1st rounder for a 31 year old defensemen after putting the franchise in the mini-rebuild direction with the ROR trade, and making it about building around the Eichel/Dahlin age group.

I don't buy that lame excuse that Botterill threw out to the media as a defense for trading O'Reilly - if Botterill really felt that his age (27) didn't fit with the 18-24 young core of Eichel, Mittelstadt, Reinhart, Ristolainen, then why did he take back two 30 year olds and why is he talking like Scandella and Bogosian (both of whom will be 28 this fall) are players the Sabres are depending on and moving forward with? They'll be 10 years older than Dahlin.

Therefore, the O'Reilly trade was obviously not about age discrepancies. It also wasn't about money, given that they took on the same cap amount in the 3 Blues coming back for the next 2 years. Botterill should have just been upfront in saying there were disconnects in the locker room and leave it at that - at least that would been honest instead of using bogus references to age and money.

 

[Kyndig]

Many people would prefer it if we didn’t sit around drafting and developing for 5 more years until we are. Nothing too challenging to understand.

5 years is complete hyperbole. Chychrun was already playing in the NHL in his draft season. McAvoy was playing a year after his draft. Both were mid 1st rounders which is entirely possible one or both of those picks we have end up as one. SJS pick would be 21st this year and Blues would be 14th. No way you're getting a defenseman as good as either of those players or as young as those players with a mid/late 1st rounder.

Every single one of those prospects people were drooling over from the Blues were all pretty much 2nd rounders, so even if our picks slide late into the 1st as long as you get the pick right you're getting a far superior/cheaper/younger player than what you're trading the 1st for.

Murray already pissed away all his picks and got us in this mess in the first place, so yeah lets not repeat that mistake again?

 

[Hasek]

Anyone else expecting Risto to have a monster season. He's a hardworker. Eventually it will pay off.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

5 years is complete hyperbole. Chychrun was already playing in the NHL in his draft season. McAvoy was playing a year after his draft. Both were mid 1st rounders which is entirely possible one or both of those picks we have end up as one. SJS pick would be 21st this year and Blues would be 14th. No way you're getting a defenseman as good as either of those players or as young as those players with a mid/late 1st rounder.

I like how you picked 2 players that satisfy your criteria. 2017 draft picks 11-30, 4 players saw the nhl, none more than 9 games. 2016, 4 players over 9 games played. 2015 draft, 11 of 20 have less than 40 games. 2014, 10 of 20 have less than a full season. 2013, 7 of 20 have less than a full season. Take a look at the last 10 years of 1st round picks in the 11-30 range and its 3-4 years before you even know if you hit on the pick and its another 1-3 years before they become regular contributors. The 2 players you listed, Chychrun (118gp) and McAvoy (63) are 2 of only 7 players in that draft year taken after the top 10 to have significant NHL time. (BTW Tage Thompson (41) is also on that list, acquired via tade) The top end 1st rounders are only beginning to see regular NHL ice in their D+2 season.

P.S. These numbers are a bit skewed towards your argument because the 2015 draft looks to have produced a higher average of hits in the late 1st. Which is why most of the people talking about making trades were so opposed to them in 2015, it was a really good draft.

Every single one of those prospects people were drooling over from the Blues were all pretty much 2nd rounders, so even if our picks slide late into the 1st as long as you get the pick right you're getting a far superior/cheaper/younger player than what you're trading the 1st for.

But if we draft in the 2nd round we can still get good players? Those guys definitely take 5 years to get a look at.

Murray already pissed away all his picks and got us in this mess in the first place, so yeah lets not repeat that mistake again?

I don't think anyone is suggesting Botts fails at making trades (gotta word that right, no one is suggesting that he should actively try to suck at trades, several are suggesting he fails at making good trades), nor are they advocating cleaning out every asset we have for evander kane and robyn lehner. This statement is equivalent to saying "why draft we are just going to pick the wrong player".

Smart use of assets. Not 2 2nds for Fasching. Not a 1st in deep draft for Lehner. Not an idiot winger or a third center (I know I liked ROR but I'm fully recommitting to my pre-trade stance that we had no need to move the pieces we did for another center). Something smart would be nice (for a change).

So I take back my previous post which was made under the belief that no one legitimately couldn't understand why people want to trade those picks. People want to trade those picks because, in fact, it does take between 3-6 seasons before you turn a 1st round pick into a reliable contributor. It would be nice, in the minds of some, if we could acquire a few players now who could allow younger players to exist in lesser roles while they develop into reliable contributors. Please reference discussions such as "partners for Dahlin" and "dont trade ROR and force Mitts into the 2c role" for more information on this point.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

What are Tampa’s needs in a potential TyJo trade? Picks? Depth? Forward/defense?

 

[jc17]

What are Tampa’s needs in a potential TyJo trade? Picks? Depth? Forward/defense?

Cap space, but it sounds like NYR will be the team helping them out in that deparment

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Cap space, but it sounds like NYR will be the team helping them out in that deparment

Shame. I’ve long thought he’d be a great fit with Jack.

 

[Kyndig]

I like how you picked 2 players that satisfy your criteria. 2017 draft picks 11-30, 4 players saw the nhl, none more than 9 games. 2016, 4 players over 9 games played. 2015 draft, 11 of 20 have less than 40 games. 2014, 10 of 20 have less than a full season. 2013, 7 of 20 have less than a full season. Take a look at the last 10 years of 1st round picks in the 11-30 range and its 3-4 years before you even know if you hit on the pick and its another 1-3 years before they become regular contributors. The 2 players you listed, Chychrun (118gp) and McAvoy (63) are 2 of only 7 players in that draft year taken after the top 10 to have significant NHL time. (BTW Tage Thompson (41) is also on that list, acquired via tade) The top end 1st rounders are only beginning to see regular NHL ice in their D+2 season.

P.S. These numbers are a bit skewed towards your argument because the 2015 draft looks to have produced a higher average of hits in the late 1st. Which is why most of the people talking about making trades were so opposed to them in 2015, it was a really good draft.


But if we draft in the 2nd round we can still get good players? Those guys definitely take 5 years to get a look at.


I don't think anyone is suggesting Botts fails at making trades (gotta word that right, no one is suggesting that he should actively try to suck at trades, several are suggesting he fails at making good trades), nor are they advocating cleaning out every asset we have for evander kane and robyn lehner. This statement is equivalent to saying "why draft we are just going to pick the wrong player".

Smart use of assets. Not 2 2nds for Fasching. Not a 1st in deep draft for Lehner. Not an idiot winger or a third center (I know I liked ROR but I'm fully recommitting to my pre-trade stance that we had no need to move the pieces we did for another center). Something smart would be nice (for a change).

So I take back my previous post which was made under the belief that no one legitimately couldn't understand why people want to trade those picks. People want to trade those picks because, in fact, it does take between 3-6 seasons before you turn a 1st round pick into a reliable contributor. It would be nice, in the minds of some, if we could acquire a few players now who could allow younger players to exist in lesser roles while they develop into reliable contributors. Please reference discussions such as "partners for Dahlin" and "dont trade ROR and force Mitts into the 2c role" for more information on this point.

I picked them because they were defensemen from the most recent draft where they actually played. Most players aren't playing in their draft year.

They were also drafted in 2016, not 2015. By all accounts I've read 2019 will be another good draft year. Even going back to a weak draft like 2014 they're all playing in the NHL at this point if they're not a bust. Who wouldn't want a Pastrnak, Larkin, or Kempe? It's all about getting the pick right though as I've said a few times.

Let's say you get the trade right just like I assume they get the draft right. What kind of player can you expect for a mid to late 1st rounder? Probably the same players you have a chance to grab in free agency like De Haan or Pateryn. People aren't going to give us prospects in the 18-25 year old range. NHL trade deadline: History of first-round draft picks dealt for players

Can you find a single guy on that list that fits what we want with a 1st rounder? Cherry picking drafts is far easier than cherry picking 1sts for players in a trade. They're all almost 27-30+ year olds coming back. I rather have the youngster that develops in 1-3 years than the guy we're trying to get rid of in 1-3 years.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

I picked them because they were defensemen from the most recent draft where they actually played. Most players aren't playing in their draft year.

They were also drafted in 2016, not 2015. By all accounts I've read 2019 will be another good draft year. Even going back to a weak draft like 2014 they're all playing in the NHL at this point if they're not a bust. Who wouldn't want a Pastrnak, Larkin, or Kempe? It's all about getting the pick right though as I've said a few times.

Let's say you get the trade right just like I assume they get the draft right. What kind of player can you expect for a mid to late 1st rounder? Probably the same players you have a chance to grab in free agency like De Haan or Pateryn. People aren't going to give us prospects in the 18-25 year old range. NHL trade deadline: History of first-round draft picks dealt for players

Can you find a single guy on that list that fits what we want with a 1st rounder? Cherry picking drafts is far easier than cherry picking 1sts for players in a trade. They're all almost 27-30+ year olds coming back. I rather have the youngster that develops in 1-3 years than the guy we're trying to get rid of in 1-3 years.

so you want the 5% chance? so does everyone else

and yes there are several players on that list that I would have traded a 1st for at that time, but then again I also live in a world where I don't expect a mid to late first rounder to be 1 of the 2 gems of the round

 

[Gabrielor]

Also do I have to rekind people McAvoy was also a rookie. Werenski, too. Provorov, too. "Rookie" doesnt mean much in todays NHL if you have the skill. Lets hope one of Guhle or Pilut grab that top4 spot by playoffs time if McCabe can't lock it down for the season. Plenty of things to be optimistic about - have added depth at both D and F and hopefully have made the right moves with goaltending although I have some doubts about Hutton and unfortunately for Ullmark too to some extend.

Nonsense. McAvoy had an ideal entry way into the league. Chara, McQuaid, Miller, and Krug were there as veteran dmen, so he could be protected.
I love Rasmus Dahlin, and think he's amazing. I still want to protect him as best I can.

 

[Havok89]

Dahlin, Risto, Scandella, whoever turns out best of McCabe, Pilut and Guhle is decent top4 for our ambitions going into next season. Chill

Ambitions of another first overall ​

 

[Kyndig]

I'ma laugh when we end up around 90+ points next season with all these debbie downer comments just like I did when Eichel was .74 PPG and people were saying there was no way he would finish near a point per game.

 

[sincerity0]

Many people would prefer it if we didn’t sit around drafting and developing for 5 more years until we are. Nothing too challenging to understand.

Cmon. You know that comment is an exaggeration.

There are good players that make an impact in the mid to late first every year, D+1 and D+2 seasons.

Buffalo should have realistically kept many of those first and seconds Murray used to “accelerate” the rebuild. Good teams have a continuous influx of young (cheap) talent year after year after year. We know the teams that have this.

Buffalo isn’t contending next year. I’m willing to be patient, see what the team looks like at the end of the year, and decide then what is best for the team. Next June could shake loose some quality players that could be had for a late first if Buffalo wants to explore that option.

 

[Ace]

People mad at Murray for trading away futures to rush something that blew up in his face now advocating for Botterill to trade futures to rush something. Ok.

Why don’t we just do it right instead? Players are becoming contributors at an earlier age and it will take no longer doing it the way it should have been f***ing done the first time when we amassed a war chest and then traded it away for three players all available for different issues in the room...and guess what f***ing happened to the room?

Bring in quality character vets and talented youth.

Oh wait...that’s what we’ve done. The thing everyone hates because they wanted to push forward with a team that fell to last place and had a room on fire.

Time is a flat circle.

 

[Husko]

Dahlin, Risto, Scandella, whoever turns out best of McCabe, Pilut and Guhle is decent top4 for our ambitions going into next season. Chill

That’s the part that concerns me. Well that and the 10 games Bogosian will get there even though he sucks until he gets injured.

Not signing a UFA top 4 D, to fill that one glaring whole with little cost other than short term cap space, continues to baffle me. Offer Enstrom or Hamhuis a big money one year deal.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Don't understand the desire to throw 1st round picks at anything. It's not like we're one piece away from winning the cup.

If the player coming back will hold down a major role for this squad for the next 3-5 years, then I'm ready and willing. Easing the transition and taking the pressure off the young bloods is very important when developing a young team.

 

[brian_griffin]

5 years is complete hyperbole. Chychrun was already playing in the NHL in his draft season. McAvoy was playing a year after his draft. Both were mid 1st rounders which is entirely possible one or both of those picks we have end up as one. SJS pick would be 21st this year and Blues would be 14th. No way you're getting a defenseman as good as either of those players or as young as those players with a mid/late 1st rounder.

Every single one of those prospects people were drooling over from the Blues were all pretty much 2nd rounders, so even if our picks slide late into the 1st as long as you get the pick right you're getting a far superior/cheaper/younger player than what you're trading the 1st for.

Murray already pissed away all his picks and got us in this mess in the first place, so yeah lets not repeat that mistake again?

Chychrun dropped ALOT He was top 3-5 for most of his draft year. Wouldn’t count him as a typical mid 1st rounder.

I'ma laugh when we end up around 90+ points next season with all these debbie downer comments just like I did when Eichel was .74 PPG and people were saying there was no way he would finish near a point per game.

Given their roster right now, even if Eichel is ppg I don’t think the Sabres sniff 80 pts let alone 90.

 

[Yatzhee]

Given their roster right now, even if Eichel is ppg I don’t think the Sabres sniff 80 pts let alone 90.

Maybe. Chemistry will certainly come in to play, along with commitment and passion, or drive.
I can see them pushing for a playoff spot to be honest. There is a ton of youth and with Pomers only having 1 season left there may even be a little flicker from him.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Calling this offseason’s bounty of cap casualties “quality character vets” is one helluva rebrand...

 

[Jame]

I don't buy that lame excuse that Botterill threw out to the media as a defense for trading O'Reilly - if Botterill really felt that his age (27) didn't fit with the 18-24 young core of Eichel, Mittelstadt, Reinhart, Ristolainen, then why did he take back two 30 year olds and why is he talking like Scandella and Bogosian (both of whom will be 28 this fall) are players the Sabres are depending on and moving forward with? They'll be 10 years older than Dahlin.

Therefore, the O'Reilly trade was obviously not about age discrepancies. It also wasn't about money, given that they took on the same cap amount in the 3 Blues coming back for the next 2 years. Botterill should have just been upfront in saying there were disconnects in the locker room and leave it at that - at least that would been honest instead of using bogus references to age and money.

It doesn't matter what Botts said, he's still building a team that's intended to win in the future, not today. Wasting high value future assets like 1sts and prospects on 2-3 year stop gap defensemen is pointless now.

 

[joshjull]

Many people would prefer it if we didn’t sit around drafting and developing for 5 more years until we are. Nothing too challenging to understand.

Not sure about the 5 year timeline.

We have a bunch of young high end talent: Jack, Sam, Dahlin, Risto, Mitts

To go with A LOT of young talent of varying ages/stages of development entering or in the organization.......

Forward: Olofsson, Thompson, CJ Smith, Bailey, Baptiste, Malone, Asplund, Pu, Nylander, O'Regan, Ogelvie

Defense: Guhle, Pilut, Borgen, Hickey

Goalie: Ullmark


I'm hopeful the group above can push us to where we need to go much quicker than 5 years. With potentially more on the way from the last couple drafts and those 1st round draft picks.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

Many people would prefer it if we didn’t sit around drafting and developing for 5 more years until we are. Nothing too challenging to understand.

5 more years? Why would you think it would take 5 years to develop a draft pick? That is just nonsense.

Eichel stepped in to NHL
Reihart 1 year
Dahlin stepped in to the NHL
Mittelstadt 1 year

Where do you get this nonsense 5 years? its 2-3 years for a 1st or 2nd rounder. The only prospects that take 5 years to enter the NHL are college prospects from the late rounds. If you are relying on them then you really understand development of prospects