Roster in 2017/18 - Part II

[Weezeric]

That's sort of the point. Our top-6 was just as scary last year. Adam Lowry at 3C is a liability whereas he is an asset at 4C. It's entirely fixable, either by playing Petan or Perreault at 3C. But Maurice is already calling him a key driver on the team, so there is little chance of that happening.

Lowry is the best option defensively at 3C. Sure, he is not good offensively 5v5 but why would you want to give up good defensive play on a team that is already good offensively but needs to improve in the d zone.

Personally I think a line of Connor-petan-armia would be able to push the play into the ozone enough to make up for their defensive liabilities and hope to see that but I can certainly see the thinking behind keeping Lowry at 3C and hoping a better left winger can improve his offence.

 

[10Ducky10]

^ Mo's gonna double shift Adam Lowry?

Oops, fixed it.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

Lowry is the best option defensively at 3C. Sure, he is not good offensively 5v5 but why would you want to give up good defensive play on a team that is already good offensively but needs to improve in the d zone.

Personally I think a line of Connor-petan-armia would be able to push the play into the ozone enough to make up for their defensive liabilities and hope to see that but I can certainly see the thinking behind keeping Lowry at 3C and hoping a better left winger can improve his offence.

Lowry's defense is just as big of a question mark as his offence as far as I am concerned. 3C's get hard matched against the other teams top lines on the road and Lowry has been getting killed in those minutes - particularly since Michael Frolik hasn't been around to carry him.

Year, Corsi, Corsi Rel

2014-15: 54.4%, 2.3
2015-16: 46.5%, -6.1
2016-17: 48.0%, -1.8

He's getting a lot more Dzone starts, and some of that is cause Maurice trusts him and the other half is because the puck usually in our end when he's on the ice.

 

[surixon]

Lowry's defense is just as big of a question mark as his offence as far as I am concerned. 3C's get hard matched against the other teams top lines on the road and Lowry has been getting killed in those minutes - particularly since Michael Frolik hasn't been around to carry him.

Year, Corsi, Corsi Rel

2014-15: 54.4%, 2.3
2015-16: 46.5%, -6.1
2016-17: 48.0%, -1.8

He's getting a lot more Dzone starts, and some of that is cause Maurice trusts him and the other half is because the puck usually in our end when he's on the ice.

Lowry has strong shot suppression numbers but doesn't generate enough to offset them on his own. If he's on the third line imo he will need to play with at least one upper echelon play driver. A strong two-way player would also be an attribute. Lowry can add good defense to a line that has a couple of skilled wingers that can drive the play. I would like to see off a third scoring line can be derived using other pieces in camp first though.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If Lowry is our third line centre, we miss the playoffs. Heck of a 4th line centre but best suited to exactly that.

That's sort of the point. Our top-6 was just as scary last year. Adam Lowry at 3C is a liability whereas he is an asset at 4C. It's entirely fixable, either by playing Petan or Perreault at 3C. But Maurice is already calling him a key driver on the team, so there is little chance of that happening.

I've been pushing for Lowry at 4C as hard as anyone but he is certainly not a liability at 3C. He is adequate there, just. The thing is that we (probably) have better options at 3C. I would only go back to Lowry at 3C after at least 3 others have failed or been unready for that job.

If Roslovic isn't ready for the NHL yet then it is time to give Petan a real shot there. If he can't handle it then I would give Copp a chance.

My hope is that we have a bottom 6 like:
Matty P - Petan - Armia
Copp - Lowry - Dano
Matthias in the PB until the first injury.

But that is dependent on everyone playing up to expectation in those positions.

 

[Festinator]

Obviously goals scored does not equal playoffs, otherwise we'd have been in the playoffs last year, right? But if you want to talk scoring, lets start with how Lowry's even strength scoring rates are the same as Chris Thorburn's historical average.

The Leafs have Kadri as their 3C and we have Thorburn's younger overrated brother.

So now Lowry being 3C is the reason we didn't make the playoffs last year and the reason we won't make the playoffs this year? I don't know if you actually watched a single Jets game last year, but Lowry was far from the problem and was not at all the reason we missed the playoffs. Sure, we could do better with someone like Petan in the 3C position, or Roslo if he's ready (which I don't think he is) but if you think having Lowry at 3C means we miss the playoffs, that's straight laughable to me, I'm sorry.

 

[Whileee]

Lowry's defense is just as big of a question mark as his offence as far as I am concerned. 3C's get hard matched against the other teams top lines on the road and Lowry has been getting killed in those minutes - particularly since Michael Frolik hasn't been around to carry him.

Year, Corsi, Corsi Rel

2014-15: 54.4%, 2.3
2015-16: 46.5%, -6.1
2016-17: 48.0%, -1.8

He's getting a lot more Dzone starts, and some of that is cause Maurice trusts him and the other half is because the puck usually in our end when he's on the ice.

You are dead wrong about zone play. Lowry and the 3rd line were very good at tilting the ice, often starting in their own zone and ending in the other zone. It's why Maurice liked the line so much. They were good at shot suppression but not generation, partly because they spent so much of their offensive zone time cycling the puck and none of them were aggressive in shooting. That was pretty easy to see.

Look at Lowry's GAR break up and his 5v5 D stands out as a big positive - second to Wheeler among forwards.

https://goo.gl/images/QoNmdD

 

[PhilJets]

Do we still believe that a 3rd line c needs to be 20 g - 50points centerman.
How many 3rd line c does that?

On top of my head only rnh is capable of doing that and it only because McDaniel and if draisaitl plays 2nd line c.

If Perrault plays on Lowry s wing opposite Aria that should be a fine line.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

You are dead wrong about zone play. Lowry and the 3rd line were very good at tilting the ice, often starting in their own zone and ending in the other zone. It's why Maurice liked the line so much. They were good at shot suppression but not generation, partly because they spent so much of their offensive zone time cycling the puck and none of them were aggressive in shooting. That was pretty easy to see.

Look at Lowry's GAR break up and his 5v5 D stands out as a big positive - second to Wheeler among forwards.

https://goo.gl/images/QoNmdD

We've had this conversation several times. And each time, I ask you to explain how Little is the worst defensive forward on the team and you don't have any answers. And until I see an answer that makes logical sense, I'm going to continue to use the Corsi numbers, which jhappen to match my eye test and coincidentally have Little as a very reliable two way forward who boosts his teammates vs Lowry who gets his lunch fed to him and drags down his teammates.

To the bolded: can you provide some zone time on ice stats to back this up or is this your hunch?

 

[Whileee]

We've had this conversation several times. And each time, I ask you to explain how Little is the worst defensive forward on the team and you don't have any answers. And until I see an answer that makes logical sense, I'm going to continue to use the Corsi numbers, which jhappen to match my eye test and coincidentally have Little as a very reliable two way forward who boosts his teammates vs Lowry who gets his lunch fed to him and drags down his teammates.

To the bolded: can you provide some zone time on ice stats to back this up or is this your hunch?

It's what I've seen re: Lowry, and Maurice mentioned it last season - that the Lowry line was very strong in offensive zone time. When the stats site was available, I noted that Lowry's line was good at shot suppression but low in shot production.

Little struggled last year.

If you use only Corsi stats, I guess you think Lowry was outstanding as a rookie.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

It's what I've seen re: Lowry, and Maurice mentioned it last season - that the Lowry line was very strong in offensive zone time. When the stats site was available, I noted that Lowry's line was good at shot suppression but low in shot production.

Little struggled last year.

If you use only Corsi stats, I guess you think Lowry was outstanding as a rookie.

No, I don't. As I mentioned earlier, he was carried by Frolik, Kane and Stempniak in 2014-15 which is quite obvious both by the eye test (he was sent down to the AHL last year, remember?) and his drop off in possession stats.

I didn't ask if you thought Little struggled, I asked if you think he was the worst defensive forward on the team. This is the little game you play. Post a graph. Can't defend it. Make some passing remark and then post it again in 3 months to see if anyone forgot or is around to challenge it. You aren't fooling anyone.

Oh, and If you listen to Maurice, I guess that means you think Hendricks and Chiarot are good. See how that works?

 

[Whileee]

No, I don't. As I mentioned earlier, he was carried by Frolik and Kane which is quite obvious both by the eye test (he was sent down to the AHL, remember) and his drop off in possession stats.

I didn't ask if Little struggled, I asked if you think he was the worst defensive forward on the team. This is the little game you play. Post a graph. Can't defend it. Make some passing remark and then post it again in 3 months to see if anyone forgot or is around to challenge it. You aren't fooling anyone.

Oh, and If you listen to Maurice, I guess that means you think Hendricks and Chiarot are good. See how that works?

And all you seem to want to do is spout the same gripes ad nauseum. What fun would you have if nobody responded to your stuff? It's more than ironic to have you accuse anyone of a predictable and tiresome approach to discourse.

I think there are some problems with GAR like there are with every statistical metric, including Corsi. The fact that it might sometimes misclassify a player like Little from time to time is expected. That doesn't completely invalidate the measure. Your approach is to take an analysis that focuses on Lowry, pluck out one anomaly related to another player, and then claim the metric isn't valid in its measure if Lowry. That is absurd. Leave out Little, and tell us if you think GAR is absurd in its measure of the rest of the Jets, or in general, and explain why. Garrett, who spends a lot more time looking at these stats than you or me doesn't seem to have a problem agreeing that Lowry is good defensively 5v5.

Maurice cited the Jets own tracking of zone time in his comment about Lowry and his line. That was directly relevant to the discussion, but once again you choose to focus on your usual ad hominem pap instead of trying to debate the issue directly. Lather, rinse, repeat.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

I agree with you Whileee regarding Lowry, that line when it hit its stride last season, was our best line for a a slew of games, and consistently tilted the ice into the opposing teams zone. Lowry was a huge part of that.

Lowry had a solid season last year, but he needs to take another step if he wants to be our 3rd line centre, most likely he will be a very good 4rth line centre.

 

[Whileee]

I agree with you Whileee regarding Lowry, that line when it hit its stride last season, was our best line for a a slew of games, and consistently tilted the ice into the opposing teams zone. Lowry was a huge part of that.

Lowry had a solid season last year, but he needs to take another step if he wants to be our 3rd line centre, most likely he will be a very good 4rth line centre.

I'd prefer a less one-dimensional 3rd line C, but Lowry gets more intense criticism than he probably deserves from some.

 

[winnipegger]

Lowry is an long term investment, and the return isn't amazing. However, if he "gets there", and is a legit defensive specialist, he's very useful. He can anchor a line of physical shut down players and log big PK minutes, which is what the organization drafted and developed him for. Never want him on the PP.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

And all you seem to want to do is spout the same gripes ad nauseum. What fun would you have if nobody responded to your stuff? It's more than ironic to have you accuse anyone of a predictable and tiresome approach to discourse.

Put me on ignore, then. Rest assured, I don't come here for your replies.

Ithink there are some problems with GAR like there are with every statistical metric, including Corsi. The fact that it might sometimes misclassify a player like Little from time to time is expected. That doesn't completely invalidate the measure. Your approach is to take an analysis that focuses on Lowry, pluck out one anomaly related to another player, and then claim the metric isn't valid in its measure if Lowry. That is absurd. Leave out Little, and tell us if you think GAR is absurd in its measure of the rest of the Jets, or in general, and explain why. Garrett, who spends a lot more time looking at these stats than you or me doesn't seem to have a problem agreeing that Lowry is good defensively 5v5.

I'm quite aware of statistical anomalies. The problem in this case is that you've never been able to explain what is driving the anomaly, because nobody except the author - DTMAboutHeart - has access to the howevermany variables used in the regression analysis. There are also some issues with expected goals and plus minus. But for GAR, we don't know the inputs and the weighting applied to each variable. At least I don't. And so when I look at that graph, I don't just see Little as an anomaly, I see Lowry as an anomaly. Those are the most significant ones but I could probably pick apart something with every player. Aside from those two - it certainly seems to make some intuitive sense with Wheeler #1 and Thorburn last, but it's also dependent on TOI, which is a decent proxy in and of itself for who the good and bad players are (except on Maurice's teams as in the case of Lowry getting 17 mins and Dano getting zero minutes while Nic Petan gets to play with Thor).

As for Garret, I've asked him specifically about the results for Little/Lowry before and he thought it was strange as well. So no, I haven't fully bought into WAR/GAR as a method of comparing players. I respect the work but I'm not going to become a believer until it all the variables and weighting scan be explained. I don't know what percentage of the advanced stats community believe that GAR is better than Corsi, but I don't think it's the majority.

Maurice cited the Jets own tracking of zone time in his comment about Lowry and his line. That was directly relevant to the discussion, but once again you choose to focus on your usual ad hominem pap instead of trying to debate the issue directly. Lather, rinse, repeat.

No, you inferred that since I only use Corsi, "I must think X". I don't use only Corsi. I believe I was the first one to point out that Ben Chiarot was junk back when his Corsi numbers were excellent. I've been wrong about several players and I will be wrong lots in the future, but on Lowry, I don't think I am.

 

[Whileee]

Put me on ignore, then. Rest assured, I don't come here for your replies.



I'm quite aware of statistical anomalies. The problem in this case is that you've never been able to explain what is driving the anomaly, because nobody except the author - DTMAboutHeart - has access to the howevermany variables used in the regression analysis. There are also some issues with expected goals and plus minus. But for GAR, we don't know the inputs and the weighting applied to each variable. At least I don't. And so when I look at that graph, I don't just see Little as an anomaly, I see Lowry as an anomaly. Those are the most significant ones but I could probably pick apart something with every player. Aside from those two - it certainly seems to make some intuitive sense with Wheeler #1 and Thorburn last, but it's also dependent on TOI, which is a decent proxy in and of itself for who the good and bad players are (except on Maurice's teams as in the case of Lowry getting 17 mins and Dano getting zero minutes while Nic Petan gets to play with Thor).

As for Garret, I've asked him specifically about the results for Little/Lowry before and he thought it was strange as well. So no, I haven't fully bought into WAR/GAR as a method of comparing players. I respect the work but I'm not going to become a believer until it all the variables and weighting scan be explained. I don't know what percentage of the advanced stats community believe that GAR is better than Corsi, but I don't think it's the majority.



No, you inferred that since I only use Corsi, "I must think X". I don't use only Corsi. I believe I was the first one to point out that Ben Chiarot was junk back when his Corsi numbers were excellent. I've been wrong about several players and I will be wrong lots in the future, but on Lowry, I don't think I am.

Lowry is limited, but he does some things well, in my view. He's good defensively. That's what I see and what various statistical methods indicate. Go to Own The Puck and look up Lowry's shot impact... He's actually good at preventing shots against (better than Little). You can ignore that too, but it doesn't make your opinion authoritative. What other methods do you use for analysis?

You seem to lean a lot on exaggeration, which generally isn't a good basis for discourse.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

Lowry is limited, but he does some things well, in my view. He's good defensively. That's what I see and what various statistical methods indicate. Go to Own The Puck and look up Lowry's shot impact... He's actually good at preventing shots against (better than Little). You can ignore that too, but it doesn't make your opinion authoritative. What other methods do you use for analysis?

You seem to lean a lot on exaggeration, which generally isn't a good basis for discourse.

Geez, all that about GAR and then we are onto HERO charts? Do you disagree with my comments about GAR? I've seen Lowry's shot suppression numbers before. I actually think the biggest thing in Lowry's favor is his improvement from the previous year despite having significantly worse zone starts. It's hard for me to determine how much of that is teammate driven or him personally, because unlike everyone else on the team, his line remained intact virtually all year aside from injuries and he got some help from Dano and Armia along the way. I still have him as a 4C. He's very slow. For all his apparent defensive skills, aside from Buff, I don't see anyone lose coverage in the dzone more than Adam Lowry.

I never said my opinion was authoritative. It's just my opinion. What did I exaggerate? That Ben Chiarot is junk? He most certainly is.

 

[10Ducky10]

What about

Connor MP Armia

for a third line?

 

[Whileee]

Geez, all that about GAR and then we are onto HERO charts? Do you disagree with my comments about GAR? I've seen Lowry's shot suppression numbers before. I actually think the biggest thing in Lowry's favor is his improvement from the previous year despite having significantly worse zone starts. It's hard for me to determine how much of that is teammate driven or him personally, because unlike everyone else on the team, his line remained intact virtually all year aside from injuries and he got some help from Dano and Armia along the way. I still have him as a 4C. He's very slow. For all his apparent defensive skills, aside from Buff, I don't see anyone lose coverage in the dzone more than Adam Lowry.

I never said my opinion was authoritative. It's just my opinion. What did I exaggerate? That Ben Chiarot is junk? He most certainly is.

Use whatever metric you like, Lowry has a lot of D zone starts and suppresses shots. As the C, that's a good sign of defensive effectiveness.

Exaggerate?

Petan played only with Thorbs, Dano got "zero minutes", and oh yeah, Lowry is "Thorburn's overrated younger brother".

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

What about

Connor MP Armia

for a third line?

Perreault discussed in a recent interview that he prefers wing.
A lifetime of face off taking has created a shoulder issue for him that he aggravates through playing center.

His best play for us has been as a winger.
Based on that we should let him excel on the wing and fill that spot with another player.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

What about

Connor MP Armia

for a third line?

I'd personally like to see Connor in the top 6.

Laine-Scheifele-Wheeler or Ehlers
Connor-Little-Ehlers or Wheeler
Perreault-Petan-Dano
Copp-Lowry-Armia
Matthias

Morrissey-Trouba
Enstrom-Byfuglien
Kulikov-Myers

 

[10Ducky10]

I don't see Petan making the team out of TC.

 

[Whileee]

I'd personally like to see Connor in the top 6.

Laine-Scheifele-Wheeler or Ehlers
Connor-Little-Ehlers or Wheeler
Perreault-Petan-Dano
Copp-Lowry-Armia
Matthias

Morrissey-Trouba
Enstrom-Byfuglien
Kulikov-Myers

I completely agree with Connor in the top 6. I like your lines, too, assuming Petan takes another step forward at C. Copp, Petan and Armia were a very effective line over a short sample. I wouldn't mind seeing them a bit.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

Lowry's defense is just as big of a question mark as his offence as far as I am concerned. 3C's get hard matched against the other teams top lines on the road and Lowry has been getting killed in those minutes - particularly since Michael Frolik hasn't been around to carry him.

Year, Corsi, Corsi Rel

2014-15: 54.4%, 2.3
2015-16: 46.5%, -6.1
2016-17: 48.0%, -1.8

He's getting a lot more Dzone starts, and some of that is cause Maurice trusts him and the other half is because the puck usually in our end when he's on the ice.

Have to disagree with that assessment.
Lowry at 4C is definitely more ideal for us but Lowry is far from a problem on the team. His scoring improved slightly over the 2nd half and if he does have a Connor or a Perreault on his line then he will only see his numbers increase because of that.

2016 - 17 Scoring for Lowry by game chunks
1 - 20 = 5g, 2a
21 - 40 = 2g, 2a
41 - 60 = 3g, 4a
61 - 82 = 5g, 6a

He's big, physical and mean and lays players out.

His line for large chunks of the season was the best at hemming the puck in the other teams end. The 5v5 scoring is low for a 3C, but everything else shows a decent 3C player with some aspects being a low 2C.

Maurice will likely over use him (net front PP etc...) but that doesn't change the fact that the options to create a better 3C with him or to potentially roll the MLA line as a 4th is there.

I'll cheer for tiny Petan to usurp the spot from him but won't be that surprised if it doesn't happen.