Line Combos: Roster for 2021/2022 Season

[DRW204]

comparing nearly any player from their peak seasons in their 20s to their late 30s will likely always show significant decline. like this is obvious. you aren't saying anything new.

comparing stastny to his peak years (1PPG) of course its going to be considered a significant decline.

im comparing him to Stastny as of late. It seems like you think he is going to significantly decline from the 40-50 pt range (which is more representative of current-day Stastny rather than Stastny of 10+ years ago), if that's the case then we wont ever agree. I doubt the Jets agree too.

And the year after at 37 he went to and stayed at a .6 ppg player. I said roughly the same age not the exact same age.

Are we also going to ignore that Thornton at his peak was a 100 plus point player. So yea a player that in his mid to late 30's was producing about half as much as he did at his peak is a pretty significant decline. Thornton is a first ballet hall of famer and had room to decline significantly and stay a good producer.

Paul doesn't have that same wiggle room. He's been a low 40 point player each of the last two years despite getting number 1 unit pp time. He doesn't have much if any leeway for a further decline in points before he produces below a second line rate.

Clearly if he gets supplanted in the top 6 Moe likely uses him on the third line.

 

[garret9]

How strong is the evidence that xG metrics are superior to straightforward shots on goal?

Looking at the past 5 seasons (Evolving Hockey, 5v5, SVA), xGF/60 correlates a bit better with GF/60 than SF/60, but SA/60 is better correlated with GA/60 than xGA/60.

Overall, there is very little difference in correlation (R-squared) between SF% and xGF% vs GF%. That is based on 154 team-season metrics.

So, how big are the advantages to xG metrics, considering the vagaries in measurement and lack of accessibility conceptually and practically?

Depends on the xG model unfortunately as they are not one and the same.
And depends on in vs out of sample correlation.

The true answer isn't big, but I'm comparing shot metrics in general to goals.

 

[surixon]

comparing nearly any player from their peak seasons in their 20s to their late 30s will likely always show significant decline. like this is obvious. you aren't saying anything new.

comparing stastny to his peak years (1PPG) of course its going to be considered a significant decline.

im comparing him to Stastny as of late. It seems like you think he is going to significantly decline from the 40-50 pt range (which is more representative of current-day Stastny rather than Stastny of 10+ years ago), if that's the case then we wont ever agree. I doubt the Jets agree too.

He hasn't been a 50 point player for a couple of years now. He's essentially a 40 point player now.

Yes I fully believe he may decline from a 40 point guy to a 30 to 35 or so point guy next year if he losses another half a step and doesn't get first unit pp time.

Sure we can agree to disagree on this.

 

[Whileee]

Depends on the xG model unfortunately as they are not one and the same.
And depends on in vs out of sample correlation.

The true answer isn't big, but I'm comparing shot metrics in general to goals.

Thanks. Personally, I'm starting to focus more of my attention on shots on goals as a shot metric, partly because they are easily available, partly because they are perhaps more consistently measured, and partly because I think it might be easier to link with other player characteristics like shooting skill.

I think there remains a gap is in measuring scoring chances that don't result in shot attempts, but that's perhaps a future topic.

 

[garret9]

Thanks. Personally, I'm starting to focus more of my attention on shots on goals as a shot metric, partly because they are easily available, partly because they are perhaps more consistently measured, and partly because I think it might be easier to link with other player characteristics like shooting skill.

I think there remains a gap is in measuring scoring chances that don't result in shot attempts, but that's perhaps a future topic.

On one hand, yes.
On the other hand, SportsLogiq at one point released their xGoal model for vezina last season and it was the same guys as the public models had.

There's differences, and advantages, to the private stuff that:
1) has more consistent, accurate, and precise data
2) has more data points (example public xGoals doesn't do blocked shots because NHL data only tracks location of where the shot is blocked, not where the shot was taken)
3) has more contextual granularity (can add passing data, etc)
But, the public stuff is pretty damn good.

 

[SUX2BU]

Some laughs compliments of ESPN
(You know, the network that called the Hurricanes the Panthers).

2021-22 Fantasy Hockey Ranking & Projections - ESPN

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree. Cole may or may not be ready but my guess is they still want to give him atleast half a season in the AHL barring him making it impossible to send him down in camp.

I'll be watching for him after the WJC.

 

[WolfHouse]

I’m getting this sinking feeling that playing seven defencemen means that Beaulieu ends up getting real playing time

 

[surixon]

I’m getting this sinking feeling that playing seven defencemen means that Beaulieu ends up getting real playing time

Yup, Moe loves the player so yeah he'll be in the lineup to PK is my guess.

 

[Aggie204]

Yup, Moe loves the player so yeah he'll be in the lineup to PK is my guess.

Seems redundant considering Dillon is in the similar mould, just way better. And I remember PoMo saying injured players do not get replaced when they’re healthy again.

 

[GumbyCan2]

Toninato was better than Harkins to finish the season. Scored GWG of game 1 to start the sweep, so he's probably feeling good about his chances. If we end up with both Svetchnikov and Vesalainen in the lineup who do you think would get the nod for PP2?

Seems like there is one spot to win this training camp, with Vesalainen pencilled in. Unless the Jets scour the waiver wire.

Can't wait for hockey to begin again.

Sure hope Chevy doesn't waiver-wire sewer-diver scoop up anything more.
One or two of Ves, Gus, Toninato, Harkins and Perfetti have to be able to tread water at minimum.

 

[GumbyCan2]

And the year after at 37 he went to and stayed at a .6 ppg player. I said roughly the same age not the exact same age.

Are we also going to ignore that Thornton at his peak was a 100 plus point player. So yea a player that in his mid to late 30's was producing about half as much as he did at his peak is a pretty significant decline. Thornton is a first ballet hall of famer and had room to decline significantly and stay a good producer.

Paul doesn't have that same wiggle room. He's been a low 40 point player each of the last two years despite getting number 1 unit pp time. He doesn't have much if any leeway for a further decline in points before he produces below a second line rate.

Clearly if he gets supplanted in the top 6 Moe likely uses him on the third line.

One more on Stats, I did notice ( so did everyone in my cliser jets fans circle) that Stats was brutally bad, 3/4's of regular season on the Power Play. Specifically at finishing off rebounds or getting to loose pucks around the net to tap in a goal, or at least contain puck control to a teammate. I clammered that it would have been nice to see PLD, with his size and ( previously) skilled hands around the net. I was pretty certain that PLD could have finished at least 20+% of those similar chances.
Any hope of PLD getting the slot/ net front position on Ppl1 this time around?

 

[GumbyCan2]

PLDub-Scheif-Ehlers,
Connor-Copp-Wheels,
(Perfetti)
Harkins-Lowry-Ves,
Svech/Toninato-Gus-Nash;

OR: KC-MS-NE,
AC-PLD-ESvch/ or KVes,
PS-DGus-BW,
JH/DT-AL-RN.
Captain Wheels & Stats can mentor, shelter rookie Gus, and hopefully provide steady offense against lesser opponents hopefully.
Copp-PLD and a skilled youngr guy ( Ves or Svechnikiv if he proves more capable can provide a very different type of 2nd-line, in hard-nosed grinder ability and some skill plus decent skaters, speed.
KC, MS & NE can attempt to full-bore offensive free-wheel gel together, potential elite NHL line!
The 4th is the 4th,...but with Lowry centering and Nash very capable, could plug&play as game(s) dictate, etc. Also, Lowry and Copp and Gus and Nash could combine for PK combos with the likes of Demelo, Dillon, Stanley and JMo on the back-end. Lowry will get his fdefensive zone starts and icetime anyways.
??? Possibilities?

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

Perfetti-Scheif-Ehlers,
Connor-Copp-Wheels,
Harkins-Lowry-Ves,
Svech/Toninato-Gus-Nash

No Dubois?

 

[surixon]

One more on Stats, I did notice ( so did everyone in my cliser jets fans circle) that Stats was brutally bad, 3/4's of regular season on the Power Play. Specifically at finishing off rebounds or getting to loose pucks around the net to tap in a goal, or at least contain puck control to a teammate. I clammered that it would have been nice to see PLD, with his size and ( previously) skilled hands around the net. I was pretty certain that PLD could have finished at least 20+% of those similar chances.
Any hope of PLD getting the slot/ net front position on Ppl1 this time around?

I have been saying for a while now that Stats was miscast in that role and Dubois would be a much better fit if the pp opts to use that same setup.

 

[GumbyCan2]

No Dubois?

Oops. He should 1st line, LW wuth Scheif and Ehlers.
Perfetti can ve a call up for injuries and poor efforts, insert new youth to shake it up. Thanks.

 

[lanky]

I'd like to see Scheif- Wheeler and Dubois-Ehlers stick together as pairs. Connor, Copp, Stastny and maybe even Perfetti can cycle through on their LWs.

 

[Ossific]

Connor - Scheifele - Ehlers
Svechnikov - Dubois - Wheeler
Copp - Lowry - Stastny
Vesalainen - Nash - Harkins

Gustafsson
Toninato

Not sure why most people don't have Nash at C. He is probably one of the best shutdown 4th line centers in the league. Why would we put him on the wing?

 

[WolfHouse]

Connor - Scheifele - Ehlers
Svechnikov - Dubois - Wheeler
Copp - Lowry - Stastny
Vesalainen - Nash - Harkins

Gustafsson
Toninato

Not sure why most people don't have Nash at C. He is probably one of the best shutdown 4th line centers in the league. Why would we put him on the wing?

Because we were hoping to have an energy fourth line instead of two non-scoring shut down lines?

 

[Jimmyjets]

Connor - Scheifele - Ehlers
Svechnikov - Dubois - Wheeler
Copp - Lowry - Stastny
Vesalainen - Nash - Harkins

Gustafsson
Toninato

Not sure why most people don't have Nash at C. He is probably one of the best shutdown 4th line centers in the league. Why would we put him on the wing?

I put him on the wing because we are thin on right handed wingers and I want David Gustaffson at 4C which then solidifies us with big bodies down the middle for at least the rest of Scheifele's contract. For me, Nash's biggest contribution is going to be on the PK, not in making sure the 4th line doesn't give up even strength goals.

The 4th line will barely play this year which is why sometimes we will dress 7D. So we can sneak some or the highly skilled forwards out their against weaker competition.

 

[WolfHouse]

I put him on the wing because we are thin on right handed wingers and I want David Gustaffson at 4C which then solidifies us with big bodies down the middle for at least the rest of Scheifele's contract. For me, Nash's biggest contribution is going to be on the PK, not in making sure the 4th line doesn't give up even strength goals.

The 4th line will barely play this year which is why sometimes we will dress 7D. So we can sneak some or the highly skilled forwards out their against weaker competition.

Really don't like the plan if its 5-6 minutes for our fourth line... we'll be gassed by the playoffs

 

[JetsUK]

I put him on the wing because we are thin on right handed wingers and I want David Gustaffson at 4C which then solidifies us with big bodies down the middle for at least the rest of Scheifele's contract. For me, Nash's biggest contribution is going to be on the PK, not in making sure the 4th line doesn't give up even strength goals.

The 4th line will barely play this year which is why sometimes we will dress 7D. So we can sneak some or the highly skilled forwards out their against weaker competition.

I agree, but it'd be nice to roll a 4th line that not only isn't a defensive liability but can also contribute some depth scoring and take some of the pressure off the "scoring lines" when they aren't scoring (see last season's freefall into the playoffs). I really wish that we could get beyond:

- Scoring / Get scored on
- Scoring + Possession / Get scored on less
- Checking / Occasionally score
- Score rarely / Try not to get scored on / Staff the PK

 

[Ossific]

I agree, but it'd be nice to roll a 4th line that not only isn't a defensive liability but can also contribute some depth scoring and take some of the pressure off the "scoring lines" when they aren't scoring (see last season's freefall into the playoffs). I really wish that we could get beyond:

- Scoring / Get scored on
- Scoring + Possession / Get scored on less
- Checking / Occasionally score
- Score rarely / Try not to get scored on / Staff the PK

Agreed, which is why I think Harkins, Vesa and Gus would be better suited for the wings and make stuff happen, and Nash can clean up their young defensive mistakes.

 

[JetsFan815]

Connor - Scheifele - Ehlers
Svechnikov - Dubois - Wheeler
Copp - Lowry - Stastny
Vesalainen - Nash - Harkins

Gustafsson
Toninato

Not sure why most people don't have Nash at C. He is probably one of the best shutdown 4th line centers in the league. Why would we put him on the wing?

Svechnikov couldn't crack it on Detroit, one of the worst team in the league with little depth up front. Why is he being pencilled in on the Jets 2nd line? Is it because his last name is Svechnikov?

 

[pucka lucka]

True, but Chevy won't allow a young player to rot on the fourth. If that is what Moe plans to do Chevy will put the kid in the AHL like what happened with Conner in 2016.

You sure? Dano, Petan?