Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part XV: Trading up or down? - Mod Warning post #450

[effen]

Flip and Vermette are SUPER done. like, SUPER SUPER done. Vermette makes Andersson look like Pavel Bure. Flip's broken and just does lazy circles. -7.4% CF% rel, last year, which is absurdly terrible.

Versteeg never seemed to get beat up too bad so his body is probably better off. Plays a lot like Spooner though.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I don't think you're understanding the point.

They don't need to go out and grab the best player available. They just need someone to take the minutes until one of the younger guys are ready. That might be right off the hop, but chances are it isn't.

This is before even considering what may come out of potential buy outs this summer, or trades that may be made for young players.

Regardless, I've yet to hear one good argument for keeping Zuccarello outside of possibly letting him increase his trade value with a strong season but his game looks to be trending in the wrong direction so I'm not on board with that.

Extending him at almost any capacity (that is realistic) would be a huge mistake.

 

[pld459666]

Augment or complement?

If you're using UFA to 'augment' your rebuild, then your rebuild was bad.

Looking at it the same way.

I want my best players to be the kids we are building with now.

However there may come a time where we need to bring in outside help and that's no indictment on MGMT and more so, no knock on the kids we are building with now.

 

[effen]

I think the teams gonna be a lot more veteran and "young veteran" heavy than a lot of people think. Lineups penciling in LA and Chytil. I think (and frankly hope) both are in HFD until they force their way out. LA showed he can't skate and Chytil's gotta grow into his body. Hard to keep on weight during the season. Howden's doubtful to be ready even if his body might be.

Nieves and Lettieri up front and probably 2/4 of Pionk, Gilmour, ADA, and Lindgren is a fair amount of youth. Let the rest of em break their way down.

In that regard I could be on board with signing a buncha 1 yr deals to flip for 2nds/3rds/4ths but in my scenario Zucc is a necessary part of the structure of the team. Great example for everyone. Maybe im a romantic but I like the idea of him being a Ranger for life.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I think the teams gonna be a lot more veteran and "young veteran" heavy than a lot of people think. Lineups penciling in LA and Chytil. I think (and frankly hope) both are in HFD until they force their way out. LA showed he can't skate and Chytil's gotta grow into his body. Hard to keep on weight during the season. Howden's doubtful to be ready even if his body might be.

Nieves and Lettieri up front and probably 2/4 of Pionk, Gilmour, ADA, and Lindgren is a fair amount of youth. Let the rest of em break their way down.

In that regard I could be on board with signing a buncha 1 yr deals to flip for 2nds/3rds/4ths but in my scenario Zucc is a necessary part of the structure of the team. Great example for everyone. Maybe im a romantic but I like the idea of him being a Ranger for life.

Annnnd this is how contracts like the ones given to Girardi and Staal happen.

I don't think they hired a college coach with the intent of using a veteran laden lineup. They won't ice a team of 18-23 year olds, but theres going to be a mix leaning towards younger IMO. More so than the veteran veterans, it's important to have those middle agers like Hayes, Kreider, Zibanejad, Fast, Spooner/Namesnikov (they'll keep 1.) Throw in Buchnevich and Vesey (who will stay, for better or for worse) and thats 7 of your top 9.

You exaggerate Lias' skating issues and Chytil is plenty big, he'll grow even more this summer. I would be floored if one of them didn't break camp (I'd say Lias, as he has a more mature game) with the team and wouldn't be shocked if both do.

 

[Avery16]

Does the Karlsson Hoffman thing lower the asking price on Karlsson?Hoffman is under contract for an additional year, cap hit probably easier for the Senators to carry right now.

 

[Leetch3]

Does the Karlsson Hoffman thing lower the asking price on Karlsson?Hoffman is under contract for an additional year, cap hit probably easier for the Senators to carry right now.

they could and should move hoffman but i don't see if effecting a karlsson deal unless karlsson demands a trade

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Maybe it does. I’m not so sure. Where’s that value chart that was posted again?

Check the OP

 

[Ola]

Wild Bill’s season is a stastical aberration and shouldn’t be used as an expectation for anything.

I’ll dive into his numbers with Columbus, but nothing really stood out that would make one think he has the potential to be a 40 goal scorer with more ice time

Yeah, and aren't like all high goal scoring seasons statistical aberrations? What is the probability of a player that scored 40 goals to score 40 goals again the following season?

None of the 40 goal scorers in 16-17 repeated in 17-18. None. None of the 40 goal scorers in 15-16 repeated in 16-17. AO had back to backs in 13-14 and 14-15 and 15-16. Then Stamkos is the next repeater with back to back 40 goal seasons in 09-10 and 10-11.

Its not like someone making the wild prediction that William Wild Bill Karlsson won't repeat his 40 goal season have reasons to sleep bad at night...

Looking at production analytics should look at average output over 2-3 years. Its worthless to have any expectations for single seasons. Of course there are exceptions, but production in hockey is very very streaky.

How good is it to look at top 10 in scoring one year to predict out put the following 5 years? Lets say you are scouting free agents. Take any year in recent history (2013 or older) and then produce the standard deviation the coming 5 years. I would fall off a chair with surprise if it didn't top 20%.

 

[Alluckks]

Andersson can't skate lol okay

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Andersson can't skate lol okay

I wonder how many people are saying this just because they heard it somewhere rather than seeing it for themselves.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Yeah, and aren't like all high goal scoring seasons statistical aberrations? What is the probability of a player that scored 40 goals to score 40 goals again the following season?

None of the 40 goal scorers in 16-17 repeated in 17-18. None. None of the 40 goal scorers in 15-16 repeated in 16-17. AO had back to backs in 13-14 and 14-15 and 15-16. Then Stamkos is the next repeater with back to back 40 goal seasons in 09-10 and 10-11.

Its not like someone making the wild prediction that William Wild Bill Karlsson won't repeat his 40 goal season have reasons to sleep bad at night...

Looking at production analytics should look at average output over 2-3 years. Its worthless to have any expectations for single seasons. Of course there are exceptions, but production in hockey is very very streaky.

How good is it to look at top 10 in scoring one year to predict out put the following 5 years? Lets say you are scouting free agents. Take any year in recent history (2013 or older) and then produce the standard deviation the coming 5 years. I would fall off a chair with surprise if it didn't top 20%.

How far are those players deviating from those prior goal totals though and are they maintaining a similar GPG pace?

Karlsson went from 9 & 6 goals in 15-17 shooting 8.3% and 6.3%, respectively. He scored 43 this year and shot 23.4%. That's the red flag I'm referring too as a statistical aberration.

 

[Mikos87]

Karlsson and Hoffman drama reminds me of something in Ranger land back in the day.

The worst Ranger trade of all-time had to do with a significant other of a player. Can't get into the details, but it forced a trade within days.

Rangers got fleeced hardcore.

 

[effen]

I wonder how many people are saying this just because they heard it somewhere rather than seeing it for themselves.

I saw it for myself? It was commented on in the game threads. He wasn't an NHL level skater - in particular he had ~zero acceleration and looked like he was kicking his legs in a pool when he tried to get going from a stop.

Some people blamed it on him having a crazy workload for the year (100+ games at 18, which is true). I don't know how that would make you look like my panicked girlfriend on ice for the 3rd time in her life, but I hope they're right.

Regardless of that, I'd want him to do an AHL year.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Having poor acceleration doesn’t mean you’re a poor skater, it means you have poor acceleration.

If he’s ready he’ll play, has nothing to do with his feet which are either going to improve or they won’t, the AHL won’t change that.

 

[effen]

Having poor acceleration doesn’t mean you’re a poor skater, it means you have poor acceleration.

If he’s ready he’ll play, has nothing to do with his feet which are either going to improve or they won’t, the AHL won’t change that.

???

They play Fri-Sun for the most part with the odd midweek day every other week or so. There's a lot less travel. There's A LOT more practice time available. That's exactly where you'd work on something like that. But ok.

 

[Beer League Sniper]

I wonder how many people are saying this just because they heard it somewhere rather than seeing it for themselves.

He's an above average skater. He just isn't a burner. And it was obvious he was dealing with fatigue throughout the season due to the insane amount of games he'd played. I still think he was a reach (not a horrible one, but 5ish spots too high), but I think he'll surprise a few posters who seem to be so down on him for some reason.

 

[Ola]

How far are those players deviating from those prior goal totals though and are they maintaining a similar GPG pace?

Karlsson went from 9 & 6 goals in 15-17 shooting 8.3% and 6.3%, respectively. He scored 43 this year and shot 23.4%. That's the red flag I'm referring too as a statistical aberration.

Yeah he must be closing in on some kids of record.

 

[TheTakedown]

Karlsson and Hoffman drama reminds me of something in Ranger land back in the day.

The worst Ranger trade of all-time had to do with a significant other of a player. Can't get into the details, but it forced a trade within days.

Rangers got fleeced hardcore.

Middleton?

 

[TheTakedown]

I saw it for myself? It was commented on in the game threads. He wasn't an NHL level skater - in particular he had ~zero acceleration and looked like he was kicking his legs in a pool when he tried to get going from a stop.

Some people blamed it on him having a crazy workload for the year (100+ games at 18, which is true). I don't know how that would make you look like my panicked girlfriend on ice for the 3rd time in her life, but I hope they're right.

Regardless of that, I'd want him to do an AHL year.

He just did one. His contract does not slide anymore. Play him on the NHL roster, it just makes sense

 

[haveandare]

Imo the team shouldn’t and won’t be thinking any player needs a year in the AHL until they seem them at camp.

They’re trying to build a young team around a new core. If a kid who can be part of that earns an NHL spot in this context you give it to him. If you have a deep veteran team trying to win a cup that’s a different story, but in a rebuild you give the kids what they earn.

 

[SA16]

Wild Bill scored 43 goals this year and I would probably bet the under on him scoring 20 next year.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Yeah, its stinks so bad lol.

And there are -- obviously -- so many layers to this. I am a huge Karlsson fan and have always loved him, and it doesn't necessarily have to include him that much, but I still want to point out what nobody else dears to say and that is that it takes two to tango. One nut case don't create this mess alone. What do I know, maybe Hoffaman's GF is a complete maniac and decided to go to extreme lengths to cyber terrorize Melinda Karlsson, who knows. Don't think its extremely likely that she does it for zero reasons though. Needless to say there is not even remotely an "excuse" for her to write what she have written or do anything of it, but just saying that it takes two to tango. Further, there are -- zero reason -- whatsoever to go to court with this, other than to destroy Hoffman and or his girl friend. What the ****. You have passed the threshold for what should be dealt in-house by like a zillion miles lol.

I don't even think both Hoffaman and his GF being complete nuts alone creates this mess either, it takes more than those two...

Meh, if Hoffman's gf is a "crazy" type girl it wouldn't surprise me if she escalated things on her own.

Taking two to tango could maybe be true to a point but could have been as simple as the two women not liking each other and not getting along. Then Hoffman's gf ratchets things up to 11 on her own. Entirely possible.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I saw it for myself? It was commented on in the game threads. He wasn't an NHL level skater - in particular he had ~zero acceleration and looked like he was kicking his legs in a pool when he tried to get going from a stop.

Some people blamed it on him having a crazy workload for the year (100+ games at 18, which is true). I don't know how that would make you look like my panicked girlfriend on ice for the 3rd time in her life, but I hope they're right.

Regardless of that, I'd want him to do an AHL year.

Not being an NHL skater isn't the same as being a poor skater. Aside from 2-3 prospects each draft, they all have areas where they need to improve. Chytil needs to work on his physical strength, he's not poor physically. Lias needs to work on his skating. He's not a bad skater.

I think Lias' skating issues are massively exaggerated. And yes, his traveling definitely affected his season. Despite that, he had a pretty remarkable D+1 season.

 

[Levitate]

Karlsson and Hoffman drama reminds me of something in Ranger land back in the day.

The worst Ranger trade of all-time had to do with a significant other of a player. Can't get into the details, but it forced a trade within days.

Rangers got fleeced hardcore.

Unless this was super recent, why can't you get into the details?

Yeah he must be closing in on some kids of record.

He was the only player last year to shoot over 20% and have more than 80 shots on the year. Anders Lee, Brad Marchand, and Mark Scheifele were other notable names with high shooting percentages and lots of goals last year and they all at least have a history of scoring a lot