Vernon has a Nieuwendyk-style career in which his accomplishments don't match how good he was. He rose to the occasion a few times (basically, 1989 and 1997) and had a few above average years but for most of his career was an average starting goalie.
Few goaltenders have done less with more than Vernon did. He played on all-star teams his whole career, and despite a few flashes of brilliance, he was many times the undoing of those teams. I think his record from 1990-94 in the playoffs with Calgary is simply too poor to put him in the HOF.
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On Luongo, he has likely cemented his legacy as a non-HOFer after this series. Was it all his fault? Of course not, the Sedins and Kesler were a total embarrassment as well. But he'll be remembered for two total blow-ups in Game 3 and 6, and the sub-standard efforts in Games 4 and 7. A great performance in just one of those games would have won the Cup for Vancouver.
I posted this in another thread, but basically Luongo has established himself as a goaltender who plays to the level of his team on that particular night. He'll seldom cost you games, because the entire team is usually poor when he gets lit up. But he'll seldom pick you up or steal games. A HOF goaltender simply has to be able to steal a big game here and there, and consistently ensure that average performances by the team in front of him result in victories. Luongo does not fit this bill.
At 32 it's not like there's no shot at redemption, but the window of opportunity is getting small. He pretty much needs to perform well in a Cup win or at least be the driving force behind another finals appearance if he wants to get consideration now. In a 30-team league, chances at the Cup are few and far between for most teams. There's a good chance that this was his only chance.